A lower attendance future for WDW?

[Texas84]

1. Seating at indoor restaurants is limited in capacity as not every table is available.
2. Ride capacity has been reduced.
3. No more FP+ for the time being, so EVERYONE is in the standby queue line.
4. Epcot opens at 11 now, rather than 9 AM. That means guests who would visit solely for WS are arriving at the same time guests for Future World now arrive.
5. It's Spring break.

I visited in September 2020 and back at the end of January. Was is more crowded in January? Yes, because Disney had increased capacity from 25% to 35%, which management confirmed on the Q42020 earnings call. In addition, you've got shows, rides and dining that would normally absorb some of the attendance not operating.

I've visited when the parks ARE packed. This isn't one of those times.

I went a few weeks ago and the crowds reminded me of a race weekend. So off-season busy, definitely not summer or holiday.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

1. Seating at indoor restaurants is limited in capacity as not every table is available.
2. Ride capacity has been reduced.
3. No more FP+ for the time being, so EVERYONE is in the standby queue line.
4. Epcot opens at 11 now, rather than 9 AM. That means guests who would visit solely for WS are arriving at the same time guests for Future World now arrive.
5. It's Spring break.

I visited in September 2020 and back at the end of January. Was is more crowded in January? Yes, because Disney had increased capacity from 25% to 35%, which management confirmed on the Q42020 earnings call. In addition, you've got shows, rides and dining that would normally absorb some of the attendance not operating.

I've visited when the parks ARE packed. This isn't one of those times.

I’ll report what I see the next time...and compare it to 12/31/99 in Epcot or 7/4/92 in magic kingdom...

...and call my therapist

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

I'd put the chances of Disney ever opening another park in the US at just slightly above 0%.

I'm very certain they don't want to build a park somewhere that's below freezing for a significant part of the year.

Wow, that's disappointing!!! I was just going to sell my acreage to disney for their new up north frozen resort!
Oh well...................

 

[CastAStone]

I’ve actually done a cost analysis (with a name tag on) on this very thing and the moderates provide almost zero additional benefits for the cost over the values.

But they were way less at the time. They’re both insane now.

$200 for pop is nuts (I’m actually spending $225 for AoA as a one time surprise next week...but that’s Another story)...but $275 at Caribbean is INSANE. Even if you’re skiing the black diamond trails.

The various resorts have increased prices because with FP+ they had a ton of leverage z interesting to see what happens now.

The all stars can still be had for $130 a night if you go at the right time. People keep forgetting that the summer is offseason now and winter is peak season and complain that February has doubled in price - February 2020 set a TouringPlans record for the most 10/10 days in a month, ever - and it only has 28 days! Disney should keep raising prices in the winter!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The various resorts have increased prices because with FP+ they had a ton of leverage z interesting to see what happens now.

The all stars can still be had for $130 a night if you go at the right time. People keep forgetting that the summer is offseason now and winter is peak season and complain that February has doubled in price - February 2020 set a TouringPlans record for the most 10/10 days in a month, ever - and it only has 28 days! Disney should keep raising prices in the winter!

The only effective way to compare prices is off rack rates.

But the “demand” doesn’t increase the value of what you’re getting. I can’t condone that type of pro-corporation groupthink. It’s not my role as a consumer. It’s to evaluate value and give honest assessments that are not extreme opinions.

 

[CastAStone]

The only effective way to compare prices is off rack rates.

That’s fair, rack rates for the all stars in 2021 start at $103.96/night plus tax. They are $139/night for most weeknights in April and May.

Demand doesn’t increase the value of what you’re getting

Fair enough but until Disney finds the point where less than 5700 families a night want to stay at the All Stars, why on earth would they stop raising prices?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That’s fair, rack rates for the all stars in 2021 start at $103.96/night plus tax. They are $139/night for most weeknights in April and May.

Fair enough but until Disney finds the point where less than 5700 families a night want to stay at the All Stars, why on earth would they stop raising prices?

They wont...that’s the market/environment. I advise people to stop paying more for everything...but nothing has changed on that front. It is what it is.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

But the “demand” doesn’t increase the value of what you’re getting. I can’t condone that type of pro-corporation groupthink. It’s not my role as a consumer. It’s to evaluate value and give honest assessments that are not extreme opinions.

I feel this sort of split when these discussions come up.

On the one hand, I can't really blame Disney for charging more for less if people are willing to pay for it. At least from the outside, it appears it's working for them and their customer base is so far happily absorbing ever-growing prices and diminishing offerings.

On the other, why would any customer be happy that this was working for them so far? It's like the Disney's Magical Express thread where people seemed to be defending taking away this "perk" because you can still get to the resort without it and maybe it was less effective for Disney at keeping people in the bubble than it was in the past and maybe the prices will go up by 7% instead of 8% next year, etc. They're taking away something that used to be included without adding anything new or lowering prices and at least some of their customers defend them. This identification with the brand is quite incredible to the point where I sometimes think people take a good earnings report as a personal vindication for being so loyal.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I feel this sort of split when these discussions come up.

On the one hand, I can't really blame Disney for charging more for less if people are willing to pay for it. At least from the outside, it appears it's working for them and their customer base is so far happily absorbing ever-growing prices and diminishing offerings.

On the other, why would any customer be happy that this was working for them so far? It's like the Disney's Magical Express thread where people seemed to be defending taking away this "perk" because you can still get to the resort without it and maybe it was less effective for Disney at keeping people in the bubble than it was in the past and maybe the prices will go up by 7% instead of 8% next year, etc. They're taking away something that used to be included without adding anything new or lowering prices and at least some of their customers defend them. This identification with the brand is quite incredible to the point where I sometimes think people take a good earnings report as a personal vindication for being so loyal.

It’s an “Economic Cult” at this point.

It’s not people that loaded up on stock in the 80’s before the splits that are defending the quest for cash. It’s those that plan the whole year around spending money on a trip that do it. It’s a weird personal “vindication”...as you say...for sure.

Queue Barry Manilow’s “looks like we made it”

 

[CastAStone]

They wont...that’s the market/environment. I advise people to stop paying more for everything...but nothing has changed on that front. It is what it is.

I guess to me I really don’t care much about the increasing prices. I am very concerned about the decreasing value. Disney is unlikely to price me out, but it seems entirely possible that they will degrade themselves below my willingness to pay.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I guess to me I really don’t care much about the increasing prices. I am very concerned about the decreasing value. Disney is unlikely to price me out, but it seems entirely possible that they will degrade themselves below my willingness to pay.

I can’t untangle the two...because “what will they accept and how much more will they pay for it?” Is really the core of the economic philosophy that this regime employs

 

[UNCgolf]

That’s fair, rack rates for the all stars in 2021 start at $103.96/night plus tax. They are $139/night for most weeknights in April and May.

Fair enough but until Disney finds the point where less than 5700 families a night want to stay at the All Stars, why on earth would they stop raising prices?

Where are you getting that info? I'm seeing that the cheapest rack rate for a standard All-Star Movies room in April is $158. That includes tax, but tax alone isn't enough to account for a $55 difference. There are some $118 (with tax) M-W rates in January and early February, but the next cheapest rate anytime during the year is that $158 rate that's only M-W in parts of April and May.

EDIT: Nope, I missed some $141 and $146 M-W rates in parts of August-November. The weekend rate is almost always $175+ and often over $200, though.

 

[matt9112]

I was struck by the recent article about the possibility of an Epcot hotel:

"an in-park EPCOT boutique hotel may well fit in with Disney's post-COVID plans for lower attendance, offset with higher spending guests."

And it made me consider whether this is part of the soft-reset we are seeing during this Covid re-opening transition. It would seem counter-intuitive at first -- Why would you ever intentionally work towards lower attendance?
Sure, higher spending per guest makes sense -- but wouldn't you want ever increasing attendance AND ever increasing guest spending?

But then I thought about trends over the last 30 years. From the 1960's-1980's, sports stadiums kept getting bigger and bigger, the goal of sustaining bigger and bigger crowds. But then something happened with the newer generation of stadiums: Starting with Camden Yards in 1992, they starting going retro with the stadiums. Smaller more intimate stadiums started replacing the mega stadiums. Charge more per ticket, offer more luxury boxes, more premium seating, but cut back on the "cheap seats." Here in New York, 42,000 seat Citi Field replaced 45,000 seat Shea Stadium. Old Yankee Stadium could set 57,000, the newer stadium only 54,000.
Movie theaters have seen this trend on an even greater degree -- I grew up in the 80's, the era of the mega plex... bigger and bigger screens, with as many seats crammed in as possible.
But now, movie theaters have moved towards more luxurious seating - wide reclining seats, far lower capacity per theater.

In the end, WDW theme park guest capacity hasn't changed much in the last 20 years. In fact, many of the best and newest attractions have lower capacity than the attractions they replaced.

Some of Disney's actions suggest they may be perfectly happy accepting lower attendance, to the extent it allows them to increase guest spending. For example, the announced Early Theme Park Entry: In the old days of EMH, off-site guests could still get equal footing with onsite guests for rope drop, except at that morning's EMH park. Now, off-site guests will have a major rope drop disadvantage at all parks. Might that reduce off-site guests?
Off-site guests are FAR less profitable to Disney than on-site guests, not even close.

Similarly, lower attendance --> reduced lines --> greater guest satisfaction --> can charge more.

But like in the 80's, movie theaters were getting bigger and adding more seats, Disney in the 90's was building up "value" hotel capacity. Now, they are building an ultra expensive Starcruiser hotel. And according to this rumor, what would be an expensive boutique Epcot hotel.

With the slow return of entertainment, some of which appears gone forever. Slow return of APs. etc. Is Disney transitioning to a lower attendance future?

But if your charging more wouldnt you expect more? Look at everything the parks have taken away? So this new theory is basically pay alot more but i dont wait in lines as much? Are there enough well off people that would rather go to disney than to Europe or anything else that is a more luxurious vacation? Disney seems to think it is some ultra luxurious destination but....its just not...at all.

 

[CastAStone]

Where are you getting that info? I'm seeing that the cheapest rack rate for a standard All-Star Movies room in April is $158. That includes tax, but tax alone isn't enough to account for a $55 difference. There are some $118 (with tax) M-W rates in January and early February, but the next cheapest rate anytime during the year is that $158 rate that's only M-W in parts of April and May.

EDIT: Nope, I missed some $141 and $146 M-W rates in parts of August-November. The weekend rate is almost always $175+ and often over $200, though.

All star tax is higher because it’s in Osceola county. Prices with tax are archived at https://www.mousesavers.com/2021-all-star-movies-room-rates-season-dates/

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Where are you getting that info? I'm seeing that the cheapest rack rate for a standard All-Star Movies room in April is $158. That includes tax, but tax alone isn't enough to account for a $55 difference. There are some $118 (with tax) M-W rates in January and early February, but the next cheapest rate anytime during the year is that $158 rate that's only M-W in parts of April and May.

EDIT: Nope, I missed some $141 and $146 M-W rates in parts of August-November. The weekend rate is almost always $175+ and often over $200, though.

The absolute dirt cheapest...for about 6 nights a year...are at allstars for $103 ish plus 13.5% tax. That gets you to $117 a night.

I guess that’s it??

But it’s not really an honest figure. If I wanted to say that the prices were insane...I could cherry pick the largest suite on property on 12/24

 

[UNCgolf]

All star tax is higher because it’s in Osceola county. Prices with tax are archived at https://www.mousesavers.com/2021-all-star-movies-room-rates-season-dates/

Yeah, MouseSavers is where I was pulling the rates.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

This identification with the brand is quite incredible to the point where I sometimes think people take a good earnings report as a personal vindication for being so loyal.

It's like cheering for a sports team. It also explains the Universal vs Disney attitude.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But if your charging more wouldnt you expect more? Look at everything the parks have taken away? So this new theory is basically pay alot more but i dont wait in lines as much? Are there enough well off people that would rather go to disney than to Europe or anything else that is a more luxurious vacation? Disney seems to think it is some ultra luxurious destination but....its just not...at all.

We don’t talk about it much here...but there are a lot of more “traditional” trips that are more readily associated with luxury to the general public that can be paid for with the money that a standard week costs in Orlando.

 

[UNCgolf]

I guess to me I really don’t care much about the increasing prices. I am very concerned about the decreasing value. Disney is unlikely to price me out, but it seems entirely possible that they will degrade themselves below my willingness to pay.

You're basically in the same boat as me. Disney probably can't raise prices so high that I can't afford it and still be able to stay in business.

However, just because I can afford to pay for it doesn't mean it's worth paying for. I already find the deluxes mostly too expensive for what they're offering, which is why I've stayed at POR the last two trips. But they're not far off from raising the prices too high there to be worth it too, and I already think the values cost too much for what they offer.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You're basically in the same boat as me. Disney probably couldn't raise prices high enough that I couldn't afford it and still be able to stay in business.

However, just because I can afford to pay for it doesn't mean it's worth paying for. I already find the deluxes mostly too expensive for what they're offering, which is why I've stayed at POR the last two trips. But they're not far off from raising the prices too high there to be worth it too, and I already think the values cost too much for what they offer.

...I resemble these remarks