A lower attendance future for WDW?

[Thelazer]

I think the opposite is at play, they are looking at how to deal with the demand ONCE MASKS ARE LIFTED and travel resumes.. because as soon as travel across the ocean resumes, look out for the mass of people taking a vacation to Disney.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I've seen the shorts and T-shirts come out in the mid 30s in Ontario.

That’s beach weather in Thunder Bay

 

[Sir_Cliff]

I don't think I said "more affluent" crowd, I said "bigger spending." Never suggested they are re-positioning to become an elite destination for billionaires. But they want to eke out more money from those who are willing to spend more, even if it means sacrificing some of the attendance for those that spend less.
They already have plenty of higher spenders -- the people who book deluxe resorts. --> the ones who book concierge level at the deluxe resort --> those that buy park hoppers AND tickets to after hour events for the same trip --> those who pay for a dessert party for a better view of the fireworks.
They want to get those willing to spend money, even more chances to spend more money. "You're already willing to pay for a dessert party to get a better view of fireworks.. how about paying for fastpasses now!" "want to try out our boutique hotels, the Galaxy Cruiser, the Epcot boutique?"
And they don't care if they lose some of the "cheapsters" in the process, "Disney is now charging for Fastpasses!! That's so unfair! I'm done with Disney and never going back!"

I don't think anyone disagrees they want guests to spend more, and I think most also agree they want to manage attendance growth if not decrease it a little.

The kicker for some of us was this idea:

And part of that is driving expectations as well.... A fine line where you don't want to scare off guests, but you may also want them to come to WDW with higher spending expectations. (Come to Disney with an expectation for luxurious overpriced $500 dinner, not with expectation for an overpriced $20 hamburger).

Disney is not offering luxurious high-priced options. They're offering overpriced middle-of-the-range options. One or two exceptions to this not withstanding, the question remains regarding what expectations Disney is really setting up about a WDW vacation.

To me, when Chapek talked about the pandemic allowing them to reassess past sacred cows like the AP program, he meant that Disney was reassessing how much they had to actually offer guests at what price in order to have a viable business. In terms of expectations, recent actions suggest to me the expectation they're trying to set has nothing to do with a heightened experience and everything to do with higher costs, including for those hamburgers. Want to get there before the attractions have long lines? Pay to stay in one of our high-priced hotels. Don't want to spend most of your day in interminable lines? Pay for our special Fastpass service. Don't want to have to head home at 6pm? Pay for one of our special nighttime parties. Want transportation to and from the airport? That's your problem now. This is not exactly a Be Our Guest sales pitch.

Recent trends seem to indicate this may be a winner for them, so who can blame them I guess? On a personal level, WDW is sounding more and more like the tacky tourist trap that all its detractors used to say it was.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think the opposite is at play, they are looking at how to deal with the demand ONCE MASKS ARE LIFTED and travel resumes.. because as soon as travel across the ocean resumes, look out for the mass of people saying "f" it and taking a vacation to Disney.

That’s dependent on the economy...101%

 

[plawren2]

Disney doesn’t care if they can afford it. (I tend to believe most can afford it, few are declaring bankruptcy when they arrive home).

But I never meant to suggest Disney wants people who are in the 10-15% of earners. They want guests who will spend like 10-15% earners. They’ve already been moving in that direction, and I have every reason to believe it will continue.

And going back to the original post — Disney may be willing to price out the cheaper spenders in favor of the big spenders. You only want to pay $160 for a value hotel, and price of basic day ticket? Then don’t expect fastpasses, long night hours, etc. those are for the bigger spenders.

You have no idea who can afford the deluxe resorts and restaurants, very possible they add to their debt or take years to save to go. What people spend often has little to do with their income or savings or credit limit. I also know many (myself included) who could afford to pay for deluxe but choose not to as the deluxe resorts and restaurants have little value to us (overpriced)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You have no idea who can afford the deluxe resorts and restaurants, very possible they add to their debt or take years to save to go. What people spend often has little to do with their income or savings or credit limit. I also know many (myself included) who could afford to pay for deluxe but choose not to as the deluxe resorts and restaurants have little value to us (overpriced)

Totally agree

...problem is the most overpriced offerings by far are the moderates and character buffets

 

[Lilofan]

You have no idea who can afford the deluxe resorts and restaurants, very possible they add to their debt or take years to save to go. What people spend often has little to do with their income or savings or credit limit. I also know many (myself included) who could afford to pay for deluxe but choose not to as the deluxe resorts and restaurants have little value to us (overpriced)

I'm with the same viewpoint. To lay down in a hotel room for several hours a night and spend most of the day in the parks doesn't make sense to me to stay in the deluxe resorts. Coronado which is a moderate resort is the go to resort.

 

[UNCgolf]

90 attendance would be approximately a 40% reduction.

The system would collapse. Trying to cut that much is the financial equivalent of putting water back into the damn. That’s not how they ever made profit...and it never will be. They’re “stuck” with the masses.

I didn't say it was going to happen; it's not. But I 100% guarantee Disney would prefer it.

You don't think they'd want half the attendance as long as those people were staying on site and spending huge amounts on merchandise, parties, etc.? They'd save a ton of money on reduced staffing along with eliminating the need for capital expenditures to increase capacity (just like Iger always wanted).

They just aren't ever going to attract enough guests willing to spend/capable of spending enough money daily to make those numbers work.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I didn't say it was going to happen; it's not. But I 100% guarantee Disney would prefer it.

You don't think they'd want half the attendance as long as those people were staying on site and spending huge amounts on merchandise, parties, etc.? They'd save a ton of money on reduced staffing along with eliminating the need for capital expenditures to increase capacity (just like Iger always wanted).

They just aren't ever going to attract enough guests willing to spend/capable of spending enough money daily to make those numbers work.

Of course they would...lower overhead

But that puts the “if you don’t go...3 more will take your place” theory to the high stakes test.

Praetorians don’t like that test. No, Sir. Because it could break the simple house of cards that would make them feel less proud of what they’re being overcharged. It would ruin that badge of honor - potentially.

 

[havoc315]

The kicker for some of us was this idea:


Disney is not offering luxurious high-priced options. They're offering overpriced middle-of-the-range options. One or two exceptions to this not withstanding, the question remains regarding what expectations Disney is really setting up about a WDW vacation.

I was using hyperbole for demonstrative purposes. I don't believe they are going to eliminate cheaper QS and replace them with V&A on every corner.
But they want to shift expectations in an upward direction. Some of that is simply raising the prices on things that already exist. Part of it, is giving guests more expensive new things to spend money on -- Like a $200 per person light saber experience, or thousands of dollars for a Galaxy Star Cruiser hotel, or additional fine dining options. Spending $200 for a 30 minute light-saber building is a luxurious high-priced experience -- For a family of 4, to each build their own, $800 for about 30 minutes of entertainment! A Day of Thrills tour, at $349 per person (plus park ticket, so about $500 per person!) is indeed a luxurious high-priced experience. ($2,000 for a family of 4, to get in a bunch of thrill rides in 7 hours!)
The days are long gone where a family of four could spend $14 and have a joyous day at Magic Kingdom.

So to the family that stayed off-site for $70 per night, packed peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, and maximized a park day with rope drop to dark touring --- They are telling this family -- nope, you can't tour that way at such low cost anymore. You shouldn't expect a full day of park touring solely for the price of a day ticket, you no longer get rope drop. Perhaps you no longer get fastpasses. Perhaps you no longer get night touring, with that time reserved for additional charge party tickets.

And yes, there are still $20 over-priced hamburgers. But for those willing to spend the money, there are boutique experiences like the Star Cruiser, like an Epcot hotel, like VIP tours, like V&A and Tekumi Tei. Like $200 light sabers, etc.

 

[UNCgolf]

Totally agree

...problem is the most overpriced offerings by far are the moderates and character buffets

I think at this point the "values" are the most overpriced -- POR is more than it should be, for example ($300-350 night rack rate is at least $100 too much), but even at that price it's a better value than paying $200+ for a standard room at All-Star Movies.

Regardless, the pricing has gotten absurd across the board. However, Disney certainly has no reason to lower them when people are still lining up to pay.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think at this point the values are the most overpriced -- POR is more than it should be, for example ($300-350 night rack rate is at least $100 too much), but even at that price it's a better value than paying $200+ for a standard room at All-Star Movies.

Regardless, the pricing has gotten absurd across the board.

I’ve actually done a cost analysis (with a name tag on) on this very thing and the moderates provide almost zero additional benefits for the cost over the values.

But they were way less at the time. They’re both insane now.

$200 for pop is nuts (I’m actually spending $225 for AoA as a one time surprise next week...but that’s Another story)...but $275 at Caribbean is INSANE. Even if you’re skiing the black diamond trails.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't think anyone disagrees they want guests to spend more, and I think most also agree they want to manage attendance growth if not decrease it a little.

The kicker for some of us was this idea:


Disney is not offering luxurious high-priced options. They're offering overpriced middle-of-the-range options. One or two exceptions to this not withstanding, the question remains regarding what expectations Disney is really setting up about a WDW vacation.

To me, when Chapek talked about the pandemic allowing them to reassess past sacred cows like the AP program, he meant that Disney was reassessing how much they had to actually offer guests at what price in order to have a viable business. In terms of expectations, recent actions suggest to me the expectation they're trying to set has nothing to do about a heightened experience and everything to do with higher costs, including for those hamburgers. Want to get there before the attractions have long lines? Pay to stay in one of our high-priced hotels. Don't want to spend most of your day in interminable lines? Pay for our special Fastpass service. Don't want to have to head home at 6pm? Pay for one of our special nighttime parties. Want transportation to and from the airport? That's your problem now. This is not exactly a Be Our Guest sales pitch.

Recent trends seem to indicate this may be a winner for them, so who can blame them I guess? On a personal level, WDW is sounding more and more like the tacky tourist trap that all its detractors used to say it was.

Not that I’m suprised...but this is as “dead on” of an analysis as you can get. It’s the truth.

 

[UNCgolf]

I’ve actually done a cost analysis (with a name tag on) on this very thing and the moderates provide almost zero additional benefits for the cost over the values.

But they were way less at the time. They’re both insane now.

$200 for pop is nuts (I’m actually spending $225 for AoA as a one time surprise next week...but that’s Another story)...but $275 at Caribbean is INSANE. Even if you’re skiing the black diamond trails.

The benefit for POR over the values for me is that staying there is just dramatically nicer experience across the board. Beautiful grounds, quieter, etc. and that's enough of a difference for the extra cost for me personally. It never feels overwhelmingly crowded the way the values do because it's so spread out with separate buildings, and it obviously has more theming. I doubt there's any real difference in the amenities offered other than the fact POR has a table service restaurant (but not a good one).

Caribbean Beach doesn't have that, but it does have the skyliner, which I suppose is the justification.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I don’t necessarily buy into this argument, but less guests would mean less wear and tear on rides, and therefore rides would require less maintenance. And we know Disney currently hates spending money on ride maintenance.

Would also mean less cast members to pay and Disney hates doing that too.

but honestly Disney doesn’t want to give up increased meals profits and merchandise purchases, so I doubt they’re trying to reduce attendance

I agree. Disney makes a mint off of meals and dining plans and merchandise. They will not reduce attendance.

 

[Lilofan]

I don’t necessarily buy into this argument, but less guests would mean less wear and tear on rides, and therefore rides would require less maintenance. And we know Disney currently hates spending money on ride maintenance.

Would also mean less cast members to pay and Disney hates doing that too.

but honestly Disney doesn’t want to give up increased meals profits and merchandise purchases, so I doubt they’re trying to reduce attendance

WDW reducing attendance like the exclusive Discovery Cove next to Sea World Orlando can be an idea but for the company to maximize revenue, it won't happen.

 

[havoc315]

Totally agree

...problem is the most overpriced offerings by far are the moderates and character buffets

While I personally think the buffets are rip offs, it's a simple question of market set demand. They keep raising the buffet prices, and they keep selling them out. People LOVE the buffets and are willing to pay top dollar for them.

If people are willing to pay, then it's not overpriced. (but it's overpriced for me, I wouldn't pay the buffet prices. Though I might if I had a 6-year-old with me).

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I think the opposite is at play, they are looking at how to deal with the demand ONCE MASKS ARE LIFTED and travel resumes.. because as soon as travel across the ocean resumes, look out for the mass of people saying "f" it and taking a vacation to Disney.

There will most definitely be a surge after masks are lifted. But it won't last long.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

While I personally think the buffets are rip offs, it's a simple question of market set demand. They keep raising the buffet prices, and they keep selling them out. People LOVE the buffets and are willing to pay top dollar for them.

If people are willing to pay, then it's not overpriced. (but it's overpriced for me, I wouldn't pay the buffet prices. Though I might if I had a 6-year-old with me).

I’m not debating the much and always ballyhooed “capitalism” price dynamics. It’s simply what you can receive for the price and what your body does with it.

 

[LAKid53]

I was there a few weeks ago...Right before Spring Break. The parks were mobbed. I don't know what they call "Lower Attendance" but EPCOT lines were huge, the plazas and walkways were full, Restaurant reservations were sold out...So "Preparing for lower attendance" is ridiculous...and as soon as the rest of the people are vaccinated I see the parks being more crowded than they ever were... Especially with everyone staying home for the past year...

1. Seating at indoor restaurants is limited in capacity as not every table is available.
2. Ride capacity has been reduced.
3. No more FP+ for the time being, so EVERYONE is in the standby queue line.
4. Epcot opens at 11 now, rather than 9 AM. That means guests who would visit solely for WS are arriving at the same time guests for Future World now arrive.
5. It's Spring break.

I visited in September 2020 and back at the end of January. Was is more crowded in January? Yes, because Disney had increased capacity from 25% to 35%, which management confirmed on the Q42020 earnings call. In addition, you've got shows, rides and dining that would normally absorb some of the attendance not operating.

I've visited when the parks ARE packed. This isn't one of those times.