Lightning Lane Premier Pass

[BrianLo]

Here is the Premier Pass pricing for today and the most expensive dates on the calendar so far, November 4 and 16:

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This clearly highlights how their a la carte pricing system is not yet totally dictating their investment cycle. Otherwise DAK would be getting a heck of a lot more than Encanto.

It’s also acknowledging in a weird way that DAK is currently less than half as valuable as Magic Kingdom to the general public.

 

[Dranth]

I make enough money to afford this and theres ZERO chance I would ever buy it because you can get almost the exact same in terms of ride yield with LLMP/LLSP for a fraction of the cost and some time planning on ur phone.....

I do want to push back a little on the assumption that just anyone could get the same number of rides using LLMP/LLSP. I would bet most people can't unless they rope drop, stay most of the day, are staying longer than 7 days on site so can book earlier and are there on a mid/low crowd day.

Not that it can't be done, it just takes a particular touring style that isn't that enjoyable for many people. Now compare that to ride anything you want when you want (once) with no planning. I think a lot of people are under estimating just how appealing that can be.

 

[JIMMYEDDIE]

I do want to push back a little on the assumption that just anyone could get the same number of rides using LLMP/LLSP. I would bet most people can't unless they rope drop, stay most of the day, are staying longer than 7 days on site so can book earlier and are there on a mid/low crowd day.

Not that it can't be done, it just takes a particular touring style that isn't that enjoyable for many people. Now compare that to ride anything you want when you want (once) with no planning. I think a lot of people are under estimating just how appealing that can be.

In Epcot and AK it would never be an issue at all........I have done those 2 parks countless times and have got on every single ride every time..........in HS it would occasionally........Also I said "almost" the same yield........it would depend on crowd levels

And for $35 vs $350 in HS, I personally (and im willing to bet that most everyone else) cannot justify a 10x pricing vs doing a little work to get on the other rides, especially when the crowd levels are not at peak levels....It's really not that hard unless its a 8/10 or higher............

This is why PP stinks as of right now....It's only 1 park AND there's an alternative for 1/10th the price.........

My guess is most people will save the difference in price $350-$35 = saving $315 and take the chance they can get on most of their rides and if they miss one or 2, then just ride that 1 or 2 standby, its not worth the $315 extra

 

[tanc]

This clearly highlights how their a la carte pricing system is not yet totally dictating their investment cycle. Otherwise DAK would be getting a heck of a lot more than Encanto.

It’s also acknowledging in a weird way that DAK is currently less than half as valuable as Magic Kingdom to the general public.

DAK has like half the rides, of course it's going to cost way less.

 

[LSLS]

This is what I mean as an example: On average, lets say across 4 parks you can buy all available LLSP and a LLMP for $35pp (on average)...........

If they tweaked LLPP and made it $350pp but it included ALL PARKS (thus selling more park hoppers as an added bonus) and anyone could buy it, hotel guests 14 days out and day guests 3 days out, they would only need 10% of the existing customers to buy it to yield the same dollar amount

And if thats too expensive and enough people arent buying it, they drop it to $300pp and now need 12% of existing customers to buy it...........

And if thats not working then they drop it to $250pp and they need 15% of existing customers to buy it to yield the same amount

This is the first step in finding that equilibrium....How much can they charge? Do they need to include all 4 parks? Do they need to offer to all guests?


See what I mean? They dont need that many people to buy it at those price points.........I think thats definitely feasible.......

But my point is, I'm not sure you find that equilibrium. It needs to be people that can afford that who are not currently paying for it. Basically, you need 10% (or 12%, whatever the number ends up) that are not currently willing to pay that because they can get MP, that have the means to do that otherwise. Are there enough people who pay stay at a non-deluxe that have the money to pay an extra $1,500 a day for their family to skip every line once, but won't do it right now because they would rather do MP?

And especially if you go the route you suggest, I have a tough time believing many do it for anything outside of MK and MAYBE DHS. So people may be willing to spend say $300 for it at MK (and maybe they park hop to another park to use as well). But, are you cutting into the money people may spend for it at DAK or Epcot if it was less expensive? I'm just not convinced they can hit a sweet spot where it will financially make more money to offer only PP, especially as a park hopper (unless that is a separate cost, like, each park has it's own price, then a higher tier is for all parks, but even with that, are you finding this sweet spot).

At any rate, interesting discussion. It will be interesting to see where they go with it/how they decide to run it with all the other forms. If I was asked what I think makes them the most money, I'd keep single use, drop this down into the $100's, and add a $300-$400 tier where it's unlimited rides on anything. I'd bet most the people who would pay $175 to ride everything at Epcot once would pay more than double that to ride Guardians and Test Track like 5 times.

 

[DisneyCane]

In Epcot and AK it would never be an issue at all........I have done those 2 parks countless times and have got on every single ride every time..........in HS it would occasionally........Also I said "almost" the same yield........it would depend on crowd levels

And for $35 vs $350 in HS, I personally (and im willing to bet that most everyone else) cannot justify a 10x pricing vs doing a little work to get on the other rides, especially when the crowd levels are not at peak levels....It's really not that hard unless its a 8/10 or higher............

This is why PP stinks as of right now....It's only 1 park AND there's an alternative for 1/10th the price.........

My guess is most people will save the difference in price $350-$35 = saving $315 and take the chance they can get on most of their rides and if they miss one or 2, then just ride that 1 or 2 standby, its not worth the $315 extra

Epcot and AK you can do every ride without any LL without much problem if you rope drop and are willing to do a couple of long waits (well, assuming you get a BG for the current VQ ride).

Probably you can do DHS also but just have to be there longer because there are more long waits. MK is the only one where, if you wanted to do every ride, it would be hard to do without LL except on very slow days.

 

[JIMMYEDDIE]

But my point is, I'm not sure you find that equilibrium. It needs to be people that can afford that who are not currently paying for it. Basically, you need 10% (or 12%, whatever the number ends up) that are not currently willing to pay that because they can get MP, that have the means to do that otherwise. Are there enough people who pay stay at a non-deluxe that have the money to pay an extra $1,500 a day for their family to skip every line once, but won't do it right now because they would rather do MP?

And especially if you go the route you suggest, I have a tough time believing many do it for anything outside of MK and MAYBE DHS. So people may be willing to spend say $300 for it at MK (and maybe they park hop to another park to use as well). But, are you cutting into the money people may spend for it at DAK or Epcot if it was less expensive? I'm just not convinced they can hit a sweet spot where it will financially make more money to offer only PP, especially as a park hopper (unless that is a separate cost, like, each park has it's own price, then a higher tier is for all parks, but even with that, are you finding this sweet spot).

At any rate, interesting discussion. It will be interesting to see where they go with it/how they decide to run it with all the other forms. If I was asked what I think makes them the most money, I'd keep single use, drop this down into the $100's, and add a $300-$400 tier where it's unlimited rides on anything. I'd bet most the people who would pay $175 to ride everything at Epcot once would pay more than double that to ride Guardians and Test Track like 5 times.

I hope you're right because i think thats a better program

 

[JIMMYEDDIE]

Epcot and AK you can do every ride without any LL without much problem if you rope drop and are willing to do a couple of long waits (well, assuming you get a BG for the current VQ ride).

Probably you can do DHS also but just have to be there longer because there are more long waits. MK is the only one where, if you wanted to do every ride, it would be hard to do without LL except on very slow days.

For those that want to do no waiting (like me)

 

[nickys]

With it only available for guests at Deluxe resorts, there are only two possible demographics that can buy it:

1) High income/wealthy people that can afford it without giving it much thought.
2) "YOLO" people who are already going into debt to pay for rooms they can't afford and will just go into more debt for a LLPP they can't afford.

A family that has been saving up to be able to afford a deluxe resort probably isn't going to decide to go over budget and into debt for LLPP.

There’s a third group.

DVC owners or more specifically their guests / renters. Many owners are well past the break-even point of their contracts. Accommodation is therefore costing them nothing. So when they have guests who are not frequent visitors, buying this product might be feasible. Ditto with renters who are paying the rate of a moderate.

However a fourth group are IMO the most likely to buy it. Those who decide to cut their trip by a day or two and use PP to get through MK (or DHS) with no effort. It would be possible to go to AK in the morning and hop to MK mid afternoon and ride everything.

 

[Drdcm]

I hope it ends up this way. I think if there was only LLPP and standby, the standbys will be shorter than they are today.

I don’t go to universal because the rides tend to make me motion sick… although I’ll try the new park. Do their standby lines move faster? Genuinely curious

 

[Dranth]

In Epcot and AK it would never be an issue at all........I have done those 2 parks countless times and have got on every single ride every time..........in HS it would occasionally........Also I said "almost" the same yield........it would depend on crowd levels

And for $35 vs $350 in HS, I personally (and im willing to bet that most everyone else) cannot justify a 10x pricing vs doing a little work to get on the other rides, especially when the crowd levels are not at peak levels....It's really not that hard unless its a 8/10 or higher............

This is why PP stinks as of right now....It's only 1 park AND there's an alternative for 1/10th the price.........

My guess is most people will save the difference in price $350-$35 = saving $315 and take the chance they can get on most of their rides and if they miss one or 2, then just ride that 1 or 2 standby, its not worth the $315 extra

Yes, with enough time in a park on a given day and planning people could get every ride in most parks with a combination of standby, LLMP and LLSP.

My argument is that the reality for most guests don't allow for staying in the parks as long as that would take. So, with that in mind, something like LLPP would allow those guests to do the same.

As for LLPP itself, I agree it isn't worth the price but it just needs a small percentage to find it appealing enough for Disney to drop LLMP and LLSP completely and why on earth would they not want to at this point? Going back to almost all standby (which many claim they want) with a capped premier pass (which many more claim they want) would be a smart long term move. They lose no revenue if priced correctly (which they will need to experiment to find), clear up most of the issues with standby not moving and take a big bite out of the complication narrative.

 

[JIMMYEDDIE]

Here's why I think LLPP cannot co exist with LLMP/LLSP

Nobody that I know, or should I say anyone with half a brain would do this


Using today at HS for my family of 5 as an example (remind you it's only 1pm EST):

LLMP is $27pp and Rise is $25pp for a total of $52 PP or $260 total cost VS LLPP $269pp for a total cost of $1,345

1. I book SDD, TOT and TSMM for my 3 pre selections plus my Rise LLSP
2. as of right now, every other ride is still available so i book/have already booked RnR and then MMRR for my other tier 1’s and any other Tier 2’s and thats with me arriving at 11am

Thats getting on EVERY ride except MFSR for $260 (and will 100% be able to get on MFSR) vs:

buying LLPP and paying $269pp or $1,345, a difference of an additional $1,085 just to not pick times and having to be on my phone a few times is utterly insane

I dont see ANYONE in their right mind that would do that…EVER



Pay $260 for every ride and have to pick times and be on your phone

OR

Pay $1,345 for every ride and not have to

A $1,085 premium? I just dont see it.......

 

[BrianLo]

DAK has like half the rides, of course it's going to cost way less.

Oh yes, I love DAK. But it’s never been presented so in your face from a pricing structure. Disney worked hard to normalize all their parks, or WDW as a whole with a broad based pricing structure. The weakness of certain parks were buried in a multi-park ticket.

But this product truly is the first glimpse at more of an al la carte model. It calls out more directly the actual value of the parks. Which makes it surprising how much they are leaning into Magic Kingdom (for the next investment cycle). Or perhaps Disney not appreciating the unintended consequences of moving more and more back to the al la carte parks model. Predating Eisner.

All I’m saying is this clearly isn’t yet incentivizing investment like I thought it would. Making Epcot and DAK be seen as more valuable to sell their add on lightening lanes I figured would be more of a priority than it is… yet at least.

 

[wdwmagic]

Here's why I think LLPP cannot co exist with LLMP/LLSP

Nobody that I know, or should I say anyone with half a brain would do this

I think the current premier pass as it stands is designed for people who just don't even want to think about the various options. Single price, gets the job done in one go, and I think that has an appeal for a lot of vacationers.

 

[JIMMYEDDIE]

I think the current premier pass as it stands is designed for people who just don't even want to think about the various options. Single price, gets the job done in one go, and I think that has an appeal for a lot of vacationers.

I agree with that......But not vs the alternative for 3 parks (exception obv being MK).........the price difference is just too much of a hurdle to the vast majority of guests

This is a niche product when presented with the alternative when factoring in price

 

[Bocabear]

I think the current premier pass as it stands is designed for people who just don't even want to think about the various options. Single price, gets the job done in one go, and I think that has an appeal for a lot of vacationers.

But the daily cost makes it almost unattainable... Seriously... I can't seem to find the place where this doesn't come off as a greedy money-grab...

 

[JIMMYEDDIE]

But the daily cost makes it almost unattainable... Seriously... I can't seem to find the place where this doesn't come off as a greedy money-grab...

Would anyone buy this today in my example in Hollywood studios? Those are actual numbers today

I would honestly appreciate any feedback with the logic because I cannot figure out who the target audience is here.......I am the target audience financially (DVC, dine at signature restaurants, stay in 3br villas, pay for add-on's like dessert parties, etc.) and I do not see any value in this whatsoever (compared to the alternative offering of LLMP and LLSP)

 

[Disstevefan1]

I don’t go to universal because the rides tend to make me motion sick… although I’ll try the new park. Do their standby lines move faster? Genuinely curious

I don't go to UNI enough, but when we were there, we never felt the need to purchase their express pass and went on their rides we wanted using the standby

We did a night at Portofino just to get the FREE express pass and it was fabulous! we got free express pass on check in day and check out day. It was great!

 

[nickys]

As for LLPP itself, I agree it isn't worth the price but it just needs a small percentage to find it appealing enough for Disney to drop LLMP and LLSP completely and why on earth would they not want to at this point? Going back to almost all standby (which many claim they want) with a capped premier pass (which many more claim they want) would be a smart long term move. They lose no revenue if priced correctly (which they will need to experiment to find), clear up most of the issues with standby not moving and take a big bite out of the complication narrative

I think you’re on the right track.

Except I think they might go further down the DLP model route. Get rid of the MultiPass and expand the number of rides that offer SinglePass.

The money they lose on MP could probably be recouped by guests buying 3 SPs per day instead.

And the Premier Pass target demographic includes the once in a blue moon guests; those who decide to skip a VIP tour in favour of 2 Premier Passes; plus others who just decide to splurge for convenience.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

With it only available for guests at Deluxe resorts, there are only two possible demographics that can buy it:

1) High income/wealthy people that can afford it without giving it much thought.
2) "YOLO" people who are already going into debt to pay for rooms they can't afford and will just go into more debt for a LLPP they can't afford.

A family that has been saving up to be able to afford a deluxe resort probably isn't going to decide to go over budget and into debt for LLPP.

I think you missing a third set of target customers. The, this is going to be our 1 and only Disney trip, so its worth it to splurge/spend on a once in a lifetime trip, to make sure that they are getting on every ride they want to get on, and seeing everything that there is to see in the park this time around, because they are not coming back.