2022 Box Office Tracking

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
As of this morning, Lightyear will not be #1 at the box office this weekend. It is going to underperform by about $15M-$20M.

"Disney’s Lightyear, despite an A- CinemaScore and 4 stars/85% positive on PostTrak, is coming in way under its $70M-$85M projection with a $51M-$55M 3-day weekend to Universal/Amblin’s second weekend of Jurassic World Dominion with $57.1M. Jurassic could even reach $66.3M through the four-day Juneteenth holiday."

 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
What a shocking opening weekend, as Lightyear came nowhere near the expectations set for it. Lightyear debuted with a $51M opening weekend, roughly $20M short of Disney's expectations. As for the global debut, the total stands at $85.6M, which is $50M under the $135M projection. Posts are flooding into the main Lightyear thread about what could have caused this. I personally think they are just too many things latching onto this movie that eventually brought it down. There was also the screen issue I pointed out a few days back. JW3 took up most of the nighttime premium screens, hurting Lightyear in the long run. There is hope it will have a steady fall, as Lightyear is rumored to get most of those screens, despite two new releases coming out on Friday. As for JW3, the film came above expectations with a $58.66M total, equating to a 60% drop. That is a bit high, but with all the competition around, it is impressive that it held the #1 spot. For now, Disney is just going to have to let this play out until it most likely hits Disney+ sometime in July/August.

For those interested in a Top Gun update, the film is guaranteed to be the first billion-dollar movie of the year. The film will cross $900M sometime this week, then it is clear skies to the $1B mark. However, it may not be the only film to reach it, as JW3 may join it. It is not guaranteed, but with it already passing $600M worldwide and having a few locations left, it has a shot.

As for this coming Friday, Warner Brothers finally enters the summer movie season with Elvis. Special screenings are happening on Tuesday night before the Thursday night showings begin. Universal joins the weekend with their new horror flick, The Black Phone.

1.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 4,697 (+21) theaters, Fri $15.8M, Sat $21.98M, Sun $20.88M, 3-day $58.66M (-60%)/4-day $68M/Total $259.1M/Wk 2

2.) Lightyear (Dis) 4,255 theaters, Fri $20.7M, Sat $16.3M, Sun $14M, 3-day $51M, 4-day est $55M+/Wk 1

3.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 4,262 (-489) theaters, Fri $11M, Sat $15.6M, Sun $17.3M, 3-day $44M (-15%), 4-day est $48M, Total $470.1M/Wk 4

4.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 2,465 (-880) theaters, Fri $1.1M, Sat $1.57M, Sun $1.52M, 3-day $4.2M (-19%), 4-day $4.4M, Total $405.2M/Wk 7

5.) Bob’s Burgers (20th/Dis) 1,350 (-1,255) theaters, Fri $349K, Sat $441K, Sun $310K, 3-day $1.1M (-51%), 4-day $1.3M, Total $30M/Wk 4


6.) Everything, Everywhere All at Once (A24) 679 (-755) theaters, Fri $260K, Sat $359K, Sun $341K, 3-day $960K (-26%), 4-day $1.2M, Total $65.1M/Wk 13

7.) The Bad Guys (Uni) 1,477 (-939) theaters, Fri $280K, Sat $370K, Sun $330K, 3-day $980K (-61%), 4-day $1.15M, Total $94.4M /Wk 9

8.) Downton Abbey – A New Era (Foc) 1,179 (-832) theaters, Fri $260K, Sat $300K, Sun $270K, 3-day $830K (-53%), 4-day $970K, Total: $42.3M/Wk 5

9.) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Par) 439 (-628) theaters $54K, Sat $94K Sun $80K, 3-day $228K (-70%), 4-day est $280K, Total $190.5M/Wk 11

10.) Brian and Charles (Foc) 279 theaters, Fri $74K,Sat $73K, Sun $51K, 3-day $198K, 4-day $221K, Wk 1

 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
This upcoming weekend should be an interesting one, as both Elvis and The Black Phone will land under Top Gun Maverick (and possibly JW3 and Lightyear).

Projections:
  • Top Gun 2: $32M
  • Jurassic World 3: $29M
  • Lightyear: $25M
  • Elvis: $20M+
  • The Black Phone: $15M-$20M
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It looks like this weekend's top 5 is becoming more clear. Here are the estimates at the moment:
  1. Elvis - $31.5M
  2. Top Gun: Maverick - $30M
  3. Jurassic World Dominion - $26.1M
  4. The Black Phone - $23.2M
  5. Lightyear - $17M-$19M
If Lightyear is able to push past the $20M mark, Deadline points out that "it will be the first time in six years that five movies have cleared [$20M] at the weekend B.O"

 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Lightyear is officially a BOMB. So sad! 65% drop in a Pixar's 2nd week is pitiful.

But it will most likely be on Disney+ by early August.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
This weekend does not have a clear winner as Elvis and Top Gun 2 both gathered a $30.5M total. That means we won't know who the clear winner of the weekend is till tomorrow morning. However, it is a strong start for the biopic, as the film is nearly three hours and follows a figure mainly the older crowd likes. I have seen Elvis twice myself, and I really enjoyed it both times. This total is also an incredible hold for TGM, which is making these totals in its 5th weekend. As for The Black Phone, it had a solid opening against the competition this weekend. Sadly, not everyone won. As already stated, Lightyear tumbled a harsh 65% in its opening weekend. It will most likely get the Encanto treatment and hit D+ in 30 days instead of 45. Stay tuned for a small update tomorrow about who was the true winner of the weekend.

As for this coming Friday, Minions: The Rise of Gru kicks off July. The 4th of July entry will share the weekend with the smaller film Mr. Malcom's List.

1.) Elvis (WB) 3,906 theaters, Fri $12.8M, Sat $10M, Sun $7.7M, 3-day $30.5M/Wk 1

2.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 3,948 (-87) theaters, Fri $8.3M, Sat $12M, Sun $10.2M, 3-day $30.5M (-33%), Total $521.7M/Wk 5

3.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 4,233 (-464) theaters, Fri $7.5M, Sat $10.8M, Sun $8.1M, 3-day $26.44M (-55%)/Total $302.77M/Wk 3

4.) The Black Phone (Uni) 3,150 theaters, Fri $10.2M, Sat $7.5M, Sun $5.6M, 3-day $23.3M/Wk 1


5.) Lightyear (Dis) 4,255 theaters, Fri $5.4M, Sat $6.95M, Sun $5.3M /3-day $17.66M (-65%), Total $88.7M/Wk 2

6.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 1,855 (-610) theaters, Fri $521k, Sat $704K, Sun $500K, 3-day $1.72M (-61%), Total $409.1M/Wk 8


7.) Jug Jugg Jeeyo (Moviegoer) 318 theaters, Fri $235K, Sat $287K, Sun $203K, 3-day $725K, Wk 1

8.) Everything, Everywhere All at Once (A24) 524 (-155) theaters, Fri $144K, Sat $216K, Sun $173K, 3-day $533K (-44%), Total $66.1M/Wk 14

9.) Bob’s Burgers (20th/Dis) 590 (-760) theaters, Fri $156K, Sat $203K, Sun $154K, 3-day $513K (-56%), Total $31M/Wk 5

10.) The Bad Guys (Uni) 1,033 (-461) theaters, Fri $140K, Sat $170K, Sun $130K 3-day $440K (-56%), Total $95.4M /Wk 10

 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Those are fighting words to some heated folks on these boards 😆
Eh-let them be fighting words. It's a Pixar film that did $17 million in its second weekend. By the same accounts, Onward, Raya, and Encanto were also bombs. All 3 were well liked....we'll see the legacy of Lightyear. But also all 3 were out in the heart of the pandemic. Lightyear isn't. It's a flop. Doesn't matter the reasons, it is what it is.
 

Sharon&Susan

Well-Known Member
Breaking news! Top Gun: Maverick becomes the first movie of the year to cross the $1B mark!

Not to imply that Dr. Strange isn't a huge success ($900 million+!), but I do wonder if that movie would've been the first if it wasn't for the quick release to Disney+ turnaround.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Updated totals are in! They are a smidge under the estimates, but the counts are still rather impressive. Of course, Minions: The Rise of Gru took the top spot with a 3-day of $107M and 4-day of $125.1M. This is way above projections and the best Independence Day opening weekend ever. It shows that the franchise is still alive, even after its 5-year break due to COVID. Top Gun continues to shine, falling only 14% in its SIXTH weekend. That is incredible! Elvis, JW3, and The Black Phone all had strong holds in the 40s. Unfortunately, Lightyear continues to suffer, falling another 65% in its 3rd weekend. On the bright side, "total 4-day ticket sales for all movies are estimated at $227.6M, +10% over the July 5-8, 2019 period which did $207.6M."

As for this coming Friday, Marvel takes another swing in the summer movie season with Thor: Love & Thunder. Right now, Box Office Pro has it at a $140M-$167M opening. Deadline should have their tracking up around Wednesday.

1.) Minions: Rise of Gru (Uni) 4,391 theaters, Fri $48.3M, Sat $32.6M, Sun $26M, Mon $18.1M, 3-day $107M, 4-day $125.1M/Wk 1

2.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 3,843 (-105) theaters, Fri $7.1M, Sat $9.7M Sun $8.9M, Mon $7.2M, 3-day $25.8M (-14%), 4-day $33M, Total $570.9M/Wk 6

3.) Elvis (WB) 3,932 (+26) theaters, Fri $5.3M, Sat $6.8M, Sun $6.3M, Mon $5M, 3-day $18.4M (-41%) 4-day $23.5M, Total $71.8M/Wk 2

4.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 3,801 (-432) theaters, Fri $4.7M, Sat $6.1M, Sun $5.2M, Mon $3.7M, 3-day $16M (-40%), 4-day $19.7M, Total $335.8M/Wk 4

5.) The Black Phone (Uni) 3,156 (+6) theaters, Fri $3.9M, Sat $4.5M Sun $3.7M, Mon $2.2M, 3-day $12.2M (-48%), 4-day $14.4M,/Total $49.6M: Wk 2


6.) Lightyear (Dis) 3,800 (-455) theaters, Fri $2M, Sat $2.4M , Sun $1.9M, Mon $1.49M, 3-day $6.37M (-65%), 4-day $7.86M, Total $106.6M/Wk 3

7.) Mr. Malcolm’s List (BST) 1,384 theaters, Fri $311K, Sat $285K, Sun $231K, Mon $175K, 3-day $826,3K, 4-day $1M/Wk 1

8.) Everything, Everywhere All at Once (A24) 607 (+83) theaters, Fri $141K, Sat $209K Sun $202K, Mon $121K 3-day $552K (+4%), 4-day $673K, Total $67.1M/Wk 15

9.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 590 (-1,265) theaters, Fri $108k, Sat $152K, Sun $131K, Mon $92K, 3-day $391K (-78%), 4-day $483K, Total $410.6M/Wk 9

10.) Jug Jugg Jeeyo (Moviegoer) 318 theaters, Fri $98,6K, Sat $112K, Sun $99,4K, Mon $81K 3-day $310K (-57%), 4-day $391K, Total: $1.5M/Wk 2

11.) Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (A24) 22 theaters (+16), Fri $92K, Sat $85K Sun $82K, Mon $49,6K, 3-day $258,4K (+62%), 4-day $308K, Total $530,7K/Wk 2

 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Deadline has the same estimation for Thor's OW, with a "$140M-$160M start in U.S./Canada and another $150M abroad for a global debut that’s around $300M"

 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Another MCU hit appears at the box office with Thor: Love And Thunder. The film's OW total is a stellar $143M, helping the film have a $302M global start. It is the 12th best opening for a MCU title, but it is the best for the Thor franchise. Even though it received a B+ CinemaScore, it could have legs. If it does not have legs, it could still bring in some big bucks like fellow B+ MCU film Doctor Strange 2. That film is currently at $953M worldwide. Thor won't reach that total, but it could definitely get past $800M. As for holdovers, Minions: Rise of Gru fell 57% in its second weekend, which is not too bad, but it shows the film was slightly front-loaded. Top Gun 2 fell slightly steeper than usual with a 40% decline (still a strong hold, though). Elvis also did not have the most impressive hold, but the biopic is close to $100M domestically and $200M worldwide.

As for this coming Friday, there is nothing too competitive. Sony finally enters the summer movie season with Where the Crawdads Sing and Paramount tries to win over some families with Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank.

1.) Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) 4,375 theaters, Fri. $69.5M, Sat $42.1M, Sun $31.4M, 3-day $143M/Wk 1

2.) Minions: Rise of Gru (Uni) 4,427 theaters (+36), Fri $14.56M, Sat $17.45M, Sun $13.5M, 3-day $45.55M (-57%), Total: $210M/Wk 2

3.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 3,513 (-330) theaters, Fri $4.47M, Sat $6.3M, Sun $4.7M, 3-day $15.5M (-40%), Total $597.4M/Wk 7

4.) Elvis (WB) 3,714 theaters (-218), Fri $3.3M, Sat $4.36M, Sun $3.29M, 3-day $11M (-40%) Total $91.1M/Wk 3

5.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 3,251 (-550) theaters, Fri $2.44M, Sat $3.4M, Sun $2.56M, 3-day $8.4M (-49%), Total $350.3M/Wk 5

6.) The Black Phone (Uni) 2,559 (-597) theaters, Fri $2.37M, Sat $3M, Sun $2.27M, 3-day $7.66M (-37%)/Total $62.3M: Wk 3


7.) Lightyear (Dis) 2,090 (-1,710) theaters, Fri $939K, Sat $1.22M, Sun $736K, 3-day $2.9M (-55%), Total $112.3M/Wk 4

8.) Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (A24) 48 theaters (+26), Fri $102K, Sat $132K, Sun $105,6K 3-day $340K (+30%), Total $963,4K/Wk 3

9.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 140 (-450) theaters, Fri $87k, Sat $107K, Sun $68K, 3-day $262K (-36%), Total $411.06M/Wk 10

10.) Everything, Everywhere All at Once (A24) 286 (-321) theaters, Fri $68,5K, Sat $95,8K, Sun $76,7K, 3-day $241,1K (-56%), Total $67.6M/Wk 16

11.) Mr. Malcolm’s List (BST) 1,057 (-327) theaters, Fri $70K, Sat $109K, Sun $65,5K, 3-day $245K (-76%), Total: $1.64M/Wk 2

 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Wow, what are the chances of two blockbusters making the same (pretty much) exact amount on opening weekend just a month apart (JWD and TLT both made ~$143 million).
 

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