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$1,000,000 is a joke for a company that has made billions on Bahamas tourism. Just to show how small of an impact that is, if the 97 employees on Castaway Cay have lost houses, cars, personal property, or family's with injuries, it works out to $10,300 a person. You can't even get half a roof...

The video that has made it out of Abaco is horrible. Castaway will be in bad shape.

This image from the HWRF is closer to reality. Red dot is Castaway. Two flags at 50 mph each and a dash at 10. 110 mph, about to get 130. Bet they have seen gusts about 150. It will be interesting to see how long until it sees guests.

The red dot just to the south of the eye is Castaway. They got hammered hard. Much more than tropical storm force. But, I would like to believe that Disney does have a shelter there that can handle 180 mph winds and 20 ft of storm surge. They had a rough day. Grand Bahama is about to have a...

I wish those maps were not posted. They are a joke. There is not a 10-20 chance of me getting those winds in the Keys. Cuba is worse, storms do not travel 300 miles south. Such broad and impossible predictions, only "cry wolf".

Yes, there is a line. It is at least one degree of latitude North of your position. For me, in the Keys, once the storm was at 25.3 N, I felt safe. Once the storm is a 100 miles north of you, it's pretty much over. Going south is very rare.

I think its safe to say, that the Keys are safe now. Just remember, the track tends to change everyday, you should not feel safe until the storm is at least 100 miles to the north of you. For those that feel the need to say "I told you so" regarding their opinions on the forecast track...

Back home after happy hour. Much talk at the bar, Sugarloaf Tiki, about gas. Looking like their is none from Key West MM 0 to Marathon MM 50. Waiting on the next video from Levi. tropicaltidbits.com For all those talking about out to sea, or a few miles east scenarios, the Airport made...

The GFS is showing WDW with 60 to 70 mph winds.

Three predictions for Tuesday, none are good for WDW. It seems most models have been in agreement for the past 2 runs that WDW will see some pretty severe weather.

Gas is running out here in the Keys. Saw lots of lines, up to 100 cars long. Wanted to get an extra 5 gallons and figured I would do it at our local marina instead of waiting in line. They were sold out of rec90 at $4 a gallon. Went to buy more beer, but the grocery store was crazy, got it...

HWRF for 1pm on Tuesday. 30 meter winds. 50 to 60 mph at Airport and Disney.

Forecast Position and wind speeds for 11am Tuesday. Windfinder, based on GFS Model. Wind about 45 mph at Disney and Airport. If this forecast holds, both will close Monday evening or earlier. Tuesday will not be fun at Disney, and you will spend almost all day stuck in your room.

The Weather Channel is a joke because they have been exposed for having reporters standing in a ditch to make the water look deeper, dramatically leaning into the wind while people in the back ground walk normally, and at one point a reporter was on his knees to make water look deeper. I don't...

Jeff Masters used to fly a Hurricane Hunter plane, and is one of the co-founder of Weather Underground. As far as Levi, I would bet that right now there are 100's if not 1000's of government officials waiting on his next update and basing decisions that affect millions on his expert opinions...

When I got back to the Keys after Irma, I had my camera on the seat so that I could take photos. Did not take a single one. The devastation was so bad that I did not want to be able to remember it so clearly. 100 miles at 30 miles an hour trying not to cry.

I would trust the opinions of two "Bloggers" with my life. Jeff Masters and Levi Cowan. The Weather Channel is a joke.

People are asking for advice on how to adjust their travel plans and I give information based on reliable models, NHC forecasts, and NOAA. I was at Disney for Matthew and Irma, and have been through countless storms. For 30 years I have been tracking Hurricanes and the waves they generate...

There are people making serious decisions on their vacation plans and doing storm prep. Your gut feelings should stay in your gut. Some of us have seen the horrible reality of the damage that one of these storms can produce.

If the current forecast is correct, MCO will be closed before 7pm on Monday. I would not count on any flight on Monday. At this time tomorrow, we will know a lot more, but I would bet that there are people changing Monday and Tuesday flight to Sunday right now.