Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Maybe the variant circulating in FL is different than the one they are talking about (serious possibility). According to Orange County over a recent 5 day period:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New info on breakthrough cases in Orange County:<br><br>7/26: 1213 cases, 98.3% unvaxxed (21 breakthrough)<br>7/25: 602 cases, 95.34% unvaxxed (28 breakthrough)<br>7/24: 960 cases, 100% unvaxxed<br>7/23: 1049 cases, 99% unvaxxed (11 breakthrough)<br>7/22: 943 cases, 99.2% unvaxxed (8 breakthrough)</p>&mdash; Lauren Seabrook (@LSeabrookWFTV) <a href="">July 29, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Based on my math that’s 68 breakthrough infections out of 4,767 total or 1.4% of total cases. We know Orange County is about 50/50 on vaccinations so that doesn’t add up to only 4-6 fold increase in protection. Seems like in the real world the vaccine is still protecting much better or at least in Orange County FL it is. I’m sure someone will dismiss that as lack of testing or bad data or something. Believe what you want.

Who knows what is right, but looking at headlines and news coverage this “leaked report” could be the most damaging blow to the vaccination effort since the JnJ blood clots. People who were hesitant are going to see this as “the vaccines don’t work”. I‘m talking about the real hesitant people who were actually on the fence about going in not the anti-vaxx and politically motivated. Really a terrible situation.

Before everyone jumps all over me for saying this, no I’m not saying they should have held back info or lied. A study is a study, but it should be presented in the proper context. The sensationalized news story is the CDC withheld this report and it leaked out. Bad optics there. The CDC director and other officials said the occurrence is a rare event. What happened in the Cape Cod event is not the rule it’s the exception. We are not seeing 75% of infections in vaccinated people. The media should be presenting the story this way. Instead the picture that’s painted leads people to believe the vaccines don’t work very well anymore to prevent infection or spread. Simply not true.

Last word on this. If this narrative is true and if this variant renders the vaccines much less effective and if vaccinated people are spreading Covid regularly then this wave won’t end any time soon under our current lifestyles. Returning to indoor masks isn’t going to move the needle. We should probably consider a return to stay at home orders and capacity restrictions and full masks all the time along with travel quarantines and recommendations to avoid elderly family and friends and anyone high risk. We are essentially back to March 2020 except this is apparently the most contagious disease known to man now. The really sobering reality is a 3rd booster shot is also useless against it. Another shot of the same vaccine isn’t going to help. We will need a whole new vaccine developed (if one can even be created) and that will take a minimum of 6 months to design, produce and test. Really grim stuff. For me I’ll continue to hope the vaccines still work and these situations are just rare occurrences and not the norm and hopefully we follow the same path as the UK and India where the wave comes and goes. The alternative is too difficult to consider. It goes well beyond the mask fight.

Very well said. It actually makes absolutely no sense that, if what they are implying about the infection of and spread by fully vaccinated people is reality, the only guideline they changed is that everybody should wear masks indoors. If the vaccines do essentially nothing to reduce spread, shouldn't they have gone back to all of the March 2020 guidelines? Either they are just using the spread by vaccinated people as a justification for, and not the reason behind, the change in mask guidelines or everybody at the CDC is an incompetent moron. I believe the former is much more likely.

As for the Cape Cod example. It is an important data point to know what percentage of the people exposed were fully vaccinated. If an extremely high percentage were vaccinated then it makes sense that the vast majority of infections in any outbreak will be breakthrough infections. The vaccine could still be extremely effective and, had the people exposed not been vaccinated, the outbreak may have ended up 10 times or 100 times as large.

Unless there is an Orange County, FL variant that is as contagious as Delta but the vaccines are as effective against it as they were against the other variants and Delta is somehow not spreading in Orange County, FL, their data makes no sense when looked at against the current narrative. Either the OC data is severely flawed (which is always possible) or the vaccines are highly effective in preventing infections of the Delta variant. It has to be one or the other.

 

[danlb_2000]

Are y

Are you saying people don't have right to their own beliefs?

People can believe what they want, just don't expect others to respect beliefs that aren't grounded in reality.

 

[GoofGoof]

Very well said. It actually makes absolutely no sense that, if what they are implying about the infection of and spread by fully vaccinated people is reality, the only guideline they changed is that everybody should wear masks indoors. If the vaccines do essentially nothing to reduce spread, shouldn't they have gone back to all of the March 2020 guidelines? Either they are just using the spread by vaccinated people as a justification for, and not the reason behind, the change in mask guidelines or everybody at the CDC is an incompetent moron. I believe the former is much more likely.

As for the Cape Cod example. It is an important data point to know what percentage of the people exposed were fully vaccinated. If an extremely high percentage were vaccinated then it makes sense that the vast majority of infections in any outbreak will be breakthrough infections. The vaccine could still be extremely effective and had the people exposed not been vaccinated, the outbreak may have ended up 10 times or 100 times as large.

Unless there is an Orange County, FL variant that is as contagious as Delta but the vaccines are as effective against it as they were against the other variants and Delta is somehow not spreading in Orange County, FL, their data makes no sense when looked at against the current narrative. Either the OC data is severely flawed (which is always possible) or the vaccines are highly effective in preventing infections of the Delta variant. It has to be one or the other.

I’m seeing the very real possibility that schools will be back to full virtual this Fall if enough people embrace This. We can’t pick and chose when these things are true.

 

[Andrew C]

US one week case trend...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Two different branches of government. Neither can shut down the other.

…I think they might have been kidding…

 

[Disney Experience]

..,,
We are essentially back to March 2020 except this is apparently the most contagious disease known to man now. The really sobering reality is a 3rd booster shot is also useless against it. Another shot of the same vaccine isn’t going to help. We will need a whole new vaccine developed (if one can even be created) and that will take a minimum of 6 months to design, produce and test. Really grim stuff. For me I’ll continue to hope the vaccines still work and these situations are just rare occurrences and not the norm and hopefully we follow the same path as the UK and India where the wave comes and goes. The alternative is too difficult to consider. It goes well beyond the mask fight.

It is not all bleak.

Here is a mix of good news and bad news:
The effectiveness of vaccines against Delta is less. But they are effective.

The effectiveness of the vaccines decrease over time (3% per month). Original booster shot is in trials.

Takes time to create and test a new vaccine tuned to delta. But it is already in the works.

Not enough people are getting vaccinated. (They should get vaccinated…but). New therapeutics tuned for coronaviruses is in the works at Pfizer.

So there is hope. Though I do wish we had, as a country, by May, gotten more people vaccinated, cases down to nothing, and implemented policies to minimize infected people entering our country until those countries got it well under control and controlled their borders.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No point in mandates or lockdowns when you can get vaccinated and be perfectly safe:View attachment 575799

That’s a newscorp tabloid, Einstein

 

[DisneyFan32]

It is not all bleak.

Here is a mix of good news and bad news:
The effectiveness of vaccines against Delta is less. But they are effective.

The effectiveness of the vaccines decrease over time (3% per month). Original booster shot is in trials.

Takes time to create and test a new vaccine tuned to delta. But it is already in the works.

Not enough people are getting vaccinated. (They should get vaccinated…but). New therapeutics tuned for coronaviruses is in the works at Pfizer.

So there is hope. Though I do wish we had, as a country, by May, gotten more people vaccinated, cases down to nothing, and implemented policies to minimize infected people entering our country until those countries got it well under control and controlled their borders.

By Christmas, things will finally under control and better than last year, as variants will be less problems now....as the cases will be much low than expecting. No more masks for now...

 

[ImperfectPixie]

What is completely new about this? Those that aren't vaccinated are still at risk of becoming infected. Is the risk higher, maybe. When CNN inflates the numbers it becomes harder to tell what is real and what is not.

What's new is that the vaccinated population is no longer "a protection" for the unvaccinated because they are now contributing to spread in much higher numbers.

Cape Cod: 882 infected, 653 (74%) were vaccinated. 7 out of 882 hospitalized (0.79%)

So, for the vaccinated, the vaccines are still VERY GOOD protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death, but we can now spread COVID almost as effectively as an unvaccinated person. And Delta causes more severe illness in the unvaccinated than Alpha did.

As for the Cape Cod example. It is an important data point to know what percentage of the people exposed were fully vaccinated. If an extremely high percentage were vaccinated then it makes sense that the vast majority of infections in any outbreak will be breakthrough infections. The vaccine could still be extremely effective and, had the people exposed not been vaccinated, the outbreak may have ended up 10 times or 100 times as large.

See the numbers above.

 

[DisneyFan32]

What's new is that the vaccinated population is no longer "a protection" for the unvaccinated because they are now contributing to spread in much higher numbers.

Cape Cod: 882 infected, 653 (74%) were vaccinated. 7 out of 882 hospitalized (0.79%)

So, for the vaccinated, the vaccines are still VERY GOOD protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death, but we can now spread COVID almost as effectively as an unvaccinated person. And Delta causes more severe illness in the unvaccinated than Alpha did.


See the numbers above.

I'm scared of this. Is vaccinated people is spreading COVID-19 is COMING TO END? Or we are getting booster shot that stops future variants by September or October.

 

[DisneyCane]

What's new is that the vaccinated population is no longer "a protection" for the unvaccinated because they are now contributing to spread in much higher numbers.

Cape Cod: 882 infected, 653 (74%) were vaccinated. 7 out of 882 hospitalized (0.79%)

So, for the vaccinated, the vaccines are still VERY GOOD protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death, but we can now spread COVID almost as effectively as an unvaccinated person. And Delta causes more severe illness in the unvaccinated than Alpha did.


See the numbers above.

Right, but how many people in the population who were EXPOSED were vaccinated. Knowing that is the only way to know what the stats mean with respect to the effectiveness of the vaccine. Taking it to an extreme, if the 229 people who were not vaccinated and got infected were the only 229 people in Cape Cod who weren't vaccinated and were exposed then the effectiveness of the vaccine would be 99.999999% or something like that.

 

[GoofGoof]

So, for the vaccinated, the vaccines are still VERY GOOD protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death, but we can now spread COVID almost as effectively as an unvaccinated person. And Delta causes more severe illness in the unvaccinated than Alpha did.

You have to be infected first to spread Covid. If the vaccines still have 80%+ efficacy for even mild infection then how can a vaccinated person spread Covid as effectively as an unvaccinated person? What has come out from the CDC guidance is that once a fully vaccinated person gets infected they can spread Covid to others. Why Fauci and the CDC are still saying that it’s a rare event and not the norm is the vaccines still have high efficacy. So it can happen, but not common. The more community spread there is the more likely a breakthrough infection so the mask guidance for fully vaccinated people was altered to include indoor masks.

 

[Disneydad1012]

What's new is that the vaccinated population is no longer "a protection" for the unvaccinated because they are now contributing to spread in much higher numbers.

Cape Cod: 882 infected, 653 (74%) were vaccinated. 7 out of 882 hospitalized (0.79%)

So, for the vaccinated, the vaccines are still VERY GOOD protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death, but we can now spread COVID almost as effectively as an unvaccinated person. And Delta causes more severe illness in the unvaccinated than Alpha did.


See the numbers above.

I wish they broke down further to list percentages of those infected received the J&J vs moderna/Pfizer.

 

[DisneyFan32]

You have to be infected first to spread Covid. If the vaccines still have 80%+ efficacy for even mild infection then how can a vaccinated person spread Covid as effectively as an unvaccinated person? What has come out from the CDC guidance is that once a fully vaccinated person gets infected they can spread Covid to others. Why Fauci and the CDC are still saying that it’s a rare event and not the norm is the vaccines still have high efficacy. So it can happen, but not common. The more community spread there is the more likely a breakthrough infection so the mask guidance for fully vaccinated people was altered to include indoor masks.

I don't want this even longer for many years, as I'm afraid the breakthrough infection is getting worse than 2020's panics of toilet papers or doomsday like this one. @GoofGoof This is going to be more nightmare for my dreams now. I don't want to die now.

 

[AEfx]

What's new is that the vaccinated population is no longer "a protection" for the unvaccinated because they are now contributing to spread in much higher numbers.

And I think it is likely that the numbers we do have about about vaccinated people having it or passing it on are naturally going to be a lot lower than reality because vaccinated people aren't running out to get tested. That's why the outbreaks we saw on sports teams, etc. that people tried to dismiss as outliers probably really weren't - they just happened to be in a position where they were being regularly tested.

 

[AEfx]

I wish they broke down further to list percentages of those infected received the J&J vs moderna/Pfizer.

They tend to be careful doing that - because they don't want the impression that one vaccine is better than the other. I knew when the vaccinations started at some point we would be here discussing which "brand" was better or not.

 

[kong1802]

That’s a newscorp tabloid, Einstein

Oh he knows.

Same reason he “toured” DC this year….

 

[disneygeek90]

Looks like further slight modifications are being done again at WDW.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't want this even longer for many years, as I'm afraid the breakthrough infection is getting worse than 2020's panics of toilet papers or doomsday like this one. @GoofGoof This is going to be more nightmare for my dreams now. I don't want to die now.

The vaccines are highly (90%+) effective against serious illness, hospitalization or death. You are going to be fine

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Right, but how many people in the population who were EXPOSED were vaccinated. Knowing that is the only way to know what the stats mean with respect to the effectiveness of the vaccine. Taking it to an extreme, if the 229 people who were not vaccinated and got infected were the only 229 people in Cape Cod who weren't vaccinated and were exposed then the effectiveness of the vaccine would be 99.999999% or something like that.

We DO have a high vaccination rate...64.07% fully vaccinated. But part of the problem is out-of-state people came from all over to celebrate the 4th. The ENTIRE population of P-town is only 2994 people.