Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

I have not caught up to the six pages after this post, so others may have mentioned the following.

You’ll need to marry you statistics class with other classes. The mitigation may or may not be purely additive. So it is not a pure math problem unless you include many other variables. For example the mask may decrease viral load on host and with the vaccine that brings its effectiveness up. Or it could have overlap and some of mitigation is redundant. I could go on with speculation, but it is not black and white. But I totally understand the use of a simplified model of mask and vaccine interaction. But just wanted to point out that it is a model, not a mathematical or clinical certitude.

... yes, all true. But the general point is simply that mask + vaccine will be better than either one alone. (unlikely that protection is 100% redundant).

Complicating things far more: We are citing the studies for Pfizer and Moderna, largely pre-UK variant, and also not studied against the South Africa variant.

And while the JNJ vaccine looks very promising, it is also notably less effective than Pfizer and Moderna.

So a blanket statement of “vaccines are 90% effective, we don’t need to wear a mask anymore!” Is really a premature statement.

 

[danlb_2000]

I read this a lot - that many people almost found this experience enjoyable and positive.

I'm not debating if we had to do it, we did, but I don't know anyone (singles, teens, couples, parents, grandparents, families) that would say their lives are better because of this. Everyone I know pretty much hated it.

I definitely wouldn't say the experience was enjoyable, but I did find things to enjoy that I might not have otherwise gotten to experience.

 

[correcaminos]

Does this also include COVID patients? The local hospital I was just looking at allows most visitation, but still not for COVID patients.

Here they do depending. My friends who had covid and died were not alone. Family was at their side.

 

[Stitch826]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...-stop-death-severe-illness-column/6709455002/

This article states the following:
“All seven COVID-19 vaccines that have completed large efficacy trials — Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V and Sinovac — appear to be 100% effective for serious complications. Not one vaccinated person has gotten sick enough to require hospitalization. Not a single vaccinated person has died of COVID-19.”

And
“We do not vaccinate to prevent a minor case of the sniffles. The reason we have vaccines is to prevent severe disease and death caused by infections.”

As has been stated in this forum many times prior, once everyone has had the OPPORTUNITY to receive their vaccine dose(s), the mask requirements and social distancing should be eliminated.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 159 new reported deaths, along with 2 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

With this report, Florida has now exceeded 30,000 deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[danlb_2000]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...-stop-death-severe-illness-column/6709455002/

This article states the following:
“All seven COVID-19 vaccines that have completed large efficacy trials — Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V and Sinovac — appear to be 100% effective for serious complications. Not one vaccinated person has gotten sick enough to require hospitalization. Not a single vaccinated person has died of COVID-19.”

And
“We do not vaccinate to prevent a minor case of the sniffles. The reason we have vaccines is to prevent severe disease and death caused by infections.”

As has been stated in this forum many times prior, once everyone has had the OPPORTUNITY to receive their vaccine dose(s), the mask requirements and social distancing should be eliminated.

That 100% is from the trial data. They are showing to be very good in the real world, not 100%, but pretty close.

 

[Mark52479]

As has been stated in this forum many times prior, once everyone has had the OPPORTUNITY to receive their vaccine dose(s), the mask requirements and social distancing should be eliminated.

At that point my guess what will happen is, the people that will want to continue wearing will keep wearing and the rest wont.

If I had to guess what would happen in a place like Florida, it will probably be left up to each individual business. They will have the right to decide whether they want people in their stores with or without masks on. You will probably see most stores say RECCOMENDED but NOT required.

 

[havoc315]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...-stop-death-severe-illness-column/6709455002/

This article states the following:
“All seven COVID-19 vaccines that have completed large efficacy trials — Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V and Sinovac — appear to be 100% effective for serious complications. Not one vaccinated person has gotten sick enough to require hospitalization. Not a single vaccinated person has died of COVID-19.”

And
“We do not vaccinate to prevent a minor case of the sniffles. The reason we have vaccines is to prevent severe disease and death caused by infections.”

As has been stated in this forum many times prior, once everyone has had the OPPORTUNITY to receive their vaccine dose(s), the mask requirements and social distancing should be eliminated.

You’re citing an opinion article, not a factual one. And the “facts” cites are actually entirely incorrect.

There are indeed dozens of people who are fully vaccinated in Israel who have been hospitalized. In South Africa, people who were given the AZ vaccine were still dropping dead

This “opinion“ further incorrectly states the reason we vaccinate — Of course it’s to prevent severe disease and death. But it’s not simply because the vaccine protects the person getting the vaccine. It’s because mass vaccination brings herd immunity, preventing disease and death widely. The opportunity to get vaccinated does not achieve this result — Only actual mass vaccination does this.

And actually, that’s also the point of the opinion piece: They don’t say get a vaccine and drop your mask. They actually say we need to continue masking to prevent mutation. The opinion piece just urges everyone to get a vaccine (and I completely agree!).
No where does the article suggest you should stop wearing a mask!

 

[Tom P.]

... yes, all true. But the general point is simply that mask + vaccine will be better than either one alone. (unlikely that protection is 100% redundant).

Complicating things far more: We are citing the studies for Pfizer and Moderna, largely pre-UK variant, and also not studied against the South Africa variant.

And while the JNJ vaccine looks very promising, it is also notably less effective than Pfizer and Moderna.

So a blanket statement of “vaccines are 90% effective, we don’t need to wear a mask anymore!” Is really a premature statement.

Here is where the disconnect is. You are looking for a solution that guarantees people aren't going to get Covid before we do away with masks. I'm not. And I don't think a majority of the population are either.

Covid is not going to be eliminated. It's just not. If we can get a good percentage of people vaccinated so that the chance of Covid is significantly lowered, that's good enough for me and I think it's going to be good enough for the majority of the population. Even Fauci has said that if we had gotten to 70% effectiveness on the vaccine, it would have been a huge success. So I'm not particularly concerned with whether the effectiveness is 85% or 90% or 95%. And I'm not concerned that wearing a mask along with the vaccine can bump it another 2% or whatever.

My opinion: Vaccines make a huge, huge dent in Covid, do a great job of giving a good level of protection to a lot of people, let's get the vaccine out there and then go back to normal. Quickly.

 

[havoc315]

Here is where the disconnect is. You are looking for a solution that guarantees people aren't going to get Covid before we do away with masks. I'm not. And I don't think a majority of the population are either.

Covid is not going to be eliminated. It's just not. If we can get a good percentage of people vaccinated so that the chance of Covid is significantly lowered, that's good enough for me and I think it's going to be good enough for the majority of the population. Even Fauci has said that if we had gotten to 70% effectiveness on the vaccine, it would have been a huge success. So I'm not particularly concerned with whether the effectiveness is 85% or 90% or 95%. And I'm not concerned that wearing a mask along with the vaccine can bump it another 2% or whatever.

My opinion: Vaccines make a huge, huge dent in Covid, do a great job of giving a good level of protection to a lot of people, let's get the vaccine out there and then go back to normal. Quickly.

The disconnect is you’re confusing effectiveness of a vaccine with herd immunity.

You can have a vaccine that is only 50-60% effective.... and with mass vaccination, get to a point where you have nearly 100% protection. As even a 50% effective vaccine will reduce the R0 of a virus. And as you reduce the R0, you eradicate the virus.

So... if there isn’t herd immunity and you take a 60% effective vaccine... it an reduce your chances of illness/hospitalization/death by 60%.... But if there is massive vaccination with a 60% effective vaccine, it reduces your chance of illness/hospitalization/death by 99.99%

Which is why masks and social distancing will continue until we reach herd immunity and mass vaccination. And yes, Covid will be virtually eliminated — A year from now, we will likely be down to a handful of deaths per month. Assuming people can keep their freaking mask on for another 6 months and assuming enough people get the vaccine.

 

[Tom P.]

The disconnect is you’re confusing effectiveness of a vaccine with herd immunity.

You can have a vaccine that is only 50-60% effective.... and with mass vaccination, get to a point where you have nearly 100% protection. As even a 50% effective vaccine will reduce the R0 of a virus. And as you reduce the R0, you eradicate the virus.

So... if there isn’t herd immunity and you take a 60% effective vaccine... it an reduce your chances of illness/hospitalization/death by 60%.... But if there is massive vaccination with a 60% effective vaccine, it reduces your chance of illness/hospitalization/death by 99.99%

Which is why masks and social distancing will continue until we reach herd immunity and mass vaccination. And yes, Covid will be virtually eliminated — A year from now, we will likely be down to a handful of deaths per month. Assuming people can keep their freaking mask on for another 6 months and assuming enough people get the vaccine.

EDIT: You know what, forget it. You and I are never going to see eye-to-eye on this. You just place WAY more importance on getting to 99.99% or whatever magic number you want to get to than I do. I appreciate the discussion, but I'm done now. Have a good day.

 

[dreday3]

AMAZING!!!! No denying the effect the vaccine is having at LTC facilities!

 

[havoc315]

EDIT: You know what, forget it. You and I are never going to see eye-to-eye on this. You just place WAY more importance on getting to 99.99% or whatever magic number you want to get to than I do. I appreciate the discussion, but I'm done now. Have a good day.

It’s not my personal opinion or priority. It’s the stated goal of our government policy — and of Disney. Chapek clearly stated masks and social distancing will be kept at WDW until we reach herd immunity. (Of course, this might eventually change if we never reach herd immunity. But he clearly indicated it’s going going away this year without herd immunity).

You may want to rip off your mask once you are vaccinated, but WDW is going to require you to keep it. And it will continue to be required in large gatherings, indoor spaces, etc, in responsible jurisdictions.

So yes, the Federal government, the CDC, Bob Chapek, place WAY more importance on getting to herd immunity than you do.

 

[Tom P.]

Here is a Twitter thread that expresses my feeling about all of this far better than I could. I'll only embed the first tweet here, but you should really click it and read the whole thread for the full context and explanation.

 

[Tom P.]

It’s not my personal opinion or priority. It’s the stated goal of our government policy — and of Disney. Chapek clearly stated masks and social distancing will be kept at WDW until we reach herd immunity. (Of course, this might eventually change if we never reach herd immunity. But he clearly indicated it’s going going away this year without herd immunity).

You may want to rip off your mask once you are vaccinated, but WDW is going to require you to keep it. And it will continue to be required in large gatherings, indoor spaces, etc, in responsible jurisdictions.

So yes, the Federal government, the CDC, Bob Chapek, place WAY more importance on getting to herd immunity than you do.

I know we're in a Disney forum, but what Bob Chapek thinks is of little concern to me. Sure, I'd like to go back to Walt Disney World and enjoy it, but if I never again visit, it's not going to destroy my life. And, near as I can tell, that's the only place where his opinion will have an impact on me.

As for the federal government and the CDC, well, I care slightly more about what they say than what Chapek says, but not by much. As I've already said, the real decisions on these matters are made by state governments, local governments, and individual businesses. And we are already seeing widespread pulling back of restrictions that the CDC would say should still be there. I think by August, either the CDC will have adjusted their guidance to be more in-line with what the states are doing or the states and the CDC will just no longer be on the same page, because the states are going to open back up fully.

 

[Disney Experience]

The disconnect is you’re confusing effectiveness of a vaccine with herd immunity.

You can have a vaccine that is only 50-60% effective.... and with mass vaccination, get to a point where you have nearly 100% protection. As even a 50% effective vaccine will reduce the R0 of a virus. And as you reduce the R0, you eradicate the virus.

So... if there isn’t herd immunity and you take a 60% effective vaccine... it an reduce your chances of illness/hospitalization/death by 60%.... But if there is massive vaccination with a 60% effective vaccine, it reduces your chance of illness/hospitalization/death by 99.99%

Which is why masks and social distancing will continue until we reach herd immunity and mass vaccination. And yes, Covid will be virtually eliminated — A year from now, we will likely be down to a handful of deaths per month. Assuming people can keep their freaking mask on for another 6 months and assuming enough people get the vaccine.

It is possible to have a high enough R0 that a low performing vaccine even with 100% vaccinated will not achieve herd immunity alone. But the blended effectiveness when you include those who have had the disease would help the effectivity overall.

The general R0 of covid is not so high. So even sinovac’s would work if enough of the herd is vaccinated. Though one study had New York City R0 ( given whatever mitigation NYC had done) at over 5. But most studies of estimating R0 in a broader areas had R0 significantly lower.

if we only had Sinovac vaccine we would be mitigating the virus through other means for a much longer period.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I really have no idea when Chapek will make some grand announcement of the grand return to pre-pandemic Disney. Quite frankly I don't think he will. It'll just be a quick update that they're no longer required. But if he does it'll probably coincide with the 50th celebration assuming vaccines pick up the pace and meet the threshold of herd immunity before October 1.

 

[Chi84]

I know we're in a Disney forum, but what Bob Chapek thinks is of little concern to me. Sure, I'd like to go back to Walt Disney World and enjoy it, but if I never again visit, it's not going to destroy my life. And, near as I can tell, that's the only place where his opinion will have an impact on me.

As for the federal government and the CDC, well, I care slightly more about what they say than what Chapek says, but not by much. As I've already said, the real decisions on these matters are made by state governments, local governments, and individual businesses. And we are already seeing widespread pulling back of restrictions that the CDC would say should still be there. I think by August, either the CDC will have adjusted their guidance to be more in-line with what the states are doing or the states and the CDC will just no longer be on the same page, because the states are going to open back up fully.

Well said. Disney opened WDW in July at the height of the pandemic, when the CDC was telling people to stay home as much as possible, and to avoid travel and large crowds. The CDC was certainly not recommending that theme parks open up at that time. So let's stop pretending Disney is all about following the CDC - it will follow their recommendations to the extent that it believes necessary while still conducting its business. Social distancing and masks are fine as long as Disney is significantly restricting capacity; those restrictions may actually work to their advantage. But when Disney needs to increase capacity, I predict you'll see some very creative solutions to getting rid of those restrictions.

 

[danlb_2000]

The disconnect is you’re confusing effectiveness of a vaccine with herd immunity.

You can have a vaccine that is only 50-60% effective.... and with mass vaccination, get to a point where you have nearly 100% protection. As even a 50% effective vaccine will reduce the R0 of a virus. And as you reduce the R0, you eradicate the virus.

So... if there isn’t herd immunity and you take a 60% effective vaccine... it an reduce your chances of illness/hospitalization/death by 60%.... But if there is massive vaccination with a 60% effective vaccine, it reduces your chance of illness/hospitalization/death by 99.99%

Which is why masks and social distancing will continue until we reach herd immunity and mass vaccination. And yes, Covid will be virtually eliminated — A year from now, we will likely be down to a handful of deaths per month. Assuming people can keep their freaking mask on for another 6 months and assuming enough people get the vaccine.

Those are some big assumptions. People weren't willing to do the right thing at the height of the pandemic they definitly aren't going to be willing to do it once vaccines are widely available and cases has gone down significantly.