Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

The disconnect is you’re confusing effectiveness of a vaccine with herd immunity.

You can have a vaccine that is only 50-60% effective.... and with mass vaccination, get to a point where you have nearly 100% protection. As even a 50% effective vaccine will reduce the R0 of a virus. And as you reduce the R0, you eradicate the virus.

So... if there isn’t herd immunity and you take a 60% effective vaccine... it an reduce your chances of illness/hospitalization/death by 60%.... But if there is massive vaccination with a 60% effective vaccine, it reduces your chance of illness/hospitalization/death by 99.99%

Which is why masks and social distancing will continue until we reach herd immunity and mass vaccination. And yes, Covid will be virtually eliminated — A year from now, we will likely be down to a handful of deaths per month. Assuming people can keep their freaking mask on for another 6 months and assuming enough people get the vaccine.

Those are some big assumptions. People weren't willing to do the right thing at the height of the pandemic they definitly aren't going to be willing to do it once vaccines are widely available and cases has gone down significantly.

 

[mmascari]

Here is a Twitter thread that expresses my feeling about all of this far better than I could. I'll only embed the first tweet here, but you should really click it and read the whole thread for the full context and explanation.

That thread wasn't the most helpful.
The math on effectiveness of different vaccines, masks, combinations, someone's personal risk don't help either.

They're both missing the point, and hence arguing about the wrong stuff.

There is no direct relationship between someone getting the vaccine and stopping mitigations. Neither when enough is available or when an individual gets vaccinated.

The relationship is when community spread is reduced enough, then mitigation efforts can be reduced and stopped.

Enough vaccine distribution should cause community spread to drop, which will then allow mitigation to stop. It's a step removed between them, and we better hope that enough people are convinced to vaccinate that we get the reduction.

If we want to fight about when different businesses, restaurants, schools, whatever are going to drop mitigation A or B, we should argue about daily new case counts (per 100,000), daily deaths, or positivity rates, along with what mitigations drop with each metric at different levels.

I think we'll need relatively low daily new case counts, which will lead to low daily deaths, along with I think we'll need a very low positivity rate. My guess is somewhere below 150 daily deaths nationally, and a positivity below 1% for all mitigations to be gone. But, I expect different things will be dropped before that, as long as after they're dropped the metrics continue to trend down. My guess is capacity restrictions will go before masks, including opening anything that's still closed. Debate on which should be removed first as the metrics trend down and at what levels would be interesting too.

If we want to place bets on when Disney does different stuff, that might be fun in a dark comedy sort of morbid way. Anyone want to place a bet one when social distance in ride queues ends? Above or below 500 daily deaths or 5% positivity? I would certainly put removing this restriction ahead of removing masks or opening buffets.

 

[danlb_2000]

You’re citing an opinion article, not a factual one. And the “facts” cites are actually entirely incorrect.

There are indeed dozens of people who are fully vaccinated in Israel who have been hospitalized. In South Africa, people who were given the AZ vaccine were still dropping dead

This “opinion“ further incorrectly states the reason we vaccinate — Of course it’s to prevent severe disease and death. But it’s not simply because the vaccine protects the person getting the vaccine. It’s because mass vaccination brings herd immunity, preventing disease and death widely. The opportunity to get vaccinated does not achieve this result — Only actual mass vaccination does this.

And actually, that’s also the point of the opinion piece: They don’t say get a vaccine and drop your mask. They actually say we need to continue masking to prevent mutation. The opinion piece just urges everyone to get a vaccine (and I completely agree!).
No where does the article suggest you should stop wearing a mask!

The facts in the article are actually correct. It says that the vaccines were 100% effective in preventing hospitalization and death in the trials which is a correct statement. The article does not try to claim that the vaccines will be 100% effective in the real world.

 

[mmascari]

People weren't willing to do the right thing at the height of the pandemic they definitely aren't going to be willing to do it once vaccines are widely available and cases has gone down significantly.

This may be the most true thing posted all day. It's probably just as true without the "and cases has gone down significantly".

Let's hope enough manage to wait for the "cases has gone down significantly".

Edit: For some definitions of "down significantly" no "right thing" would be necessary. Depending on if it's an absolute measure from "bad to good" or if it's just a relative measure from "OMG bad to just not good".

 

[Mark52479]

Well said. Disney opened WDW in July at the height of the pandemic, when the CDC was telling people to stay home as much as possible, and to avoid travel and large crowds. The CDC was certainly not recommending that theme parks open up at that time. So let's stop pretending Disney is all about following the CDC - it will follow their recommendations to the extent that it believes necessary while still conducting its business. Social distancing and masks are fine as long as Disney is significantly restricting capacity; those restrictions may actually work to their advantage. But when Disney needs to increase capacity, I predict you'll see some very creative solutions to getting rid of those restrictions.

This is very true.

Remember CDC now recommending 2 masks and no sign Disney will implement that.

Disney will ALWAYS do what is necessary to conduct business.

I think Disney will keep the masks through the rest of this year but slowly get rid of the social distancing as the vaccines get into more people.

 

[mmascari]

Remember CDC now recommending 2 masks and no sign Disney will implement that.

Are any indoor shows open yet?

Something like the The American Adventure?

As others have pointed out, lots and lots of Disney time it outside with plenty of space. A double mask would seem way overkill. But, depending on the ventilation, something like The American Adventure would seem more risky. It's a really big space, so it would also depend on how much capacity is used. If you filled every seat, a double mask would probably make more sense. Of course, if it's open, I'm sure they're not filling every seat.

It's a trade off kind of thing. I'm sure Disney is trying to minimize the things where a double mask would make sense. I wouldn't expect them to require it either.

 

[Mark52479]

Are any indoor shows open yet?

Something like the The American Adventure?

As others have pointed out, lots and lots of Disney time it outside with plenty of space. A double mask would seem way overkill. But, depending on the ventilation, something like The American Adventure would seem more risky. It's a really big space, so it would also depend on how much capacity is used. If you filled every seat, a double mask would probably make more sense. Of course, if it's open, I'm sure they're not filling every seat.

It's a trade off kind of thing. I'm sure Disney is trying to minimize the things where a double mask would make sense. I wouldn't expect them to require it either.

The only indoor show I know that is open is Frozen Sing along. There might be others but that is the only one I know for sure that is open.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Something like the The American Adventure?

Yes American Adventure is open.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I would only risk exposure to other people who have weighed the risks for themselves and also chosen to venture out into the world.

I'm saying ALLOW people to live their normal lives, not FORCE people do live their normal lives.

Ehhh...you better listen to Ironman on this one...

OK - Moral theology is my field. Let's work with this. I've been very troubled by that.

When considering whether or not something is evil, you need to ask if the action is ever justifiable. Then, if yes, you need to ask if the action is justifiable under these conditions. That's why you can't say war is unjust, but you can say that some wars are unjust.

Are there circumstances that would justify preventing a person from visiting a dying relative? What if it were ebola? And there were no protective gear available? Would it be justifiable to allow somebody, unprotected, to go in when doing so would be almost certain infection and probably death? (After all, once they are exposed, you can't let them expose anybody else, so they have to be confined to that room).

Here's the circumstances with the COVID bans on visiting those infected, including the dying:

• At the start, there wasn't enough PPE to protect the visitor. It's still not easy to come by.
• The real risk with COVID is the collapse of the healthcare system - so more people getting sick raises that risk, which affects everybody.
• Transmissibility is still not fully understand, but was definitely not well-understood in the beginning, so there was no way of knowing how one person visiting a dying loved one could potentially put scores or more of other people at risk.
• It's not perfect, but there are alternative means to visitations, including tele-visits. Nothing replaces human touch, but it is a middle ground.
• Nobody hates the no-visitiation more (other than families of dying loved-ones) than health care workers. They are not clamoring for a change in policy.
• The policy will change when it is safe to do so. (Our hospital vaccinated clergy in the first group precisely so they could have people who could visit COVID patents safely.)

My take - if there is a risk of dying isolated and alone from COVID and that risk devastates you - take whatever precautions you can to avoid getting COVID. My husband and I had the conversation that if either of us headed into a hospital with COVID, we would understand that the last time we were physically together could be the last time we were physically together. Not likely, but possible, so we prepared ourselves emotionally and spiritually for that possibility.

Losing a loved-one to COVID and not being able to be with them is sad and tragic. If it is evil, it's an evil caused by the disease itself and not by human policy. Nobody wants this policy. If it were safe to do otherwise, the policy would not be there.

100%

No. If you are contagious and interact with others you are the one spreading the disease. You sitting in a hospital waiting room, wandering the corridors or anything else visitors do spreading a disease is not because those others made decisions.

And this what burns me...this was never about “ma freedom” or some pseudo-constitutional argument.

It was always trying to make the “most correct” call in the face of the unknown and a killer

500,000...today...half of a &$!!?&% million!!!

The US had 418,500 deaths in WW2

What the hell are we still debating any precautions/measures???

Seriously

 

[havoc315]

The facts in the article are actually correct. It says that the vaccines were 100% effective in preventing hospitalization and death in the trails which is a correct statement. The article does not try to claim that the vaccines will be 100% effective in the real world.

You are correct. When I went back to read the article and not just the quoted blurb... I actually was mostly in agreement with the article. It’s conclusion was very different than the purpose for which it was being cited.

What people need to remember is how limited these studies actually are. When talking about a “20,000 person study” — That sounds huge. Wow... 20,000 people and no deaths just from using the vaccine!!!
But no.. It’s approximately 10,000 people who got a placebo... 10,000 People got the vaccine. Both groups continued to socially distance and mask to the same degree (Since they didn’t know if they got vaccine or placebo).

Then after a couple of months, you compared how many people got infected, hospitalized, etc..
So maybe in the placebo group....200 out of the 10,000 were infected in the 3 months of the study. 20 were hospitalized out of those 200. And 2 out of those 20 died.
In the vaccinated group.... 20 got infected. And thus, it was 90% effective! 20 infections vs 200.
And from there, the same sizes get smaller and smaller. How confident in a conclusion can you be that 0 out of the 20 required hospitalization? Fact that 0 out of 20 didn’t require hospitalization doesn’t give me huge confidence that it would be 0 out of thousands.. 0 out of millions. If you would typically expect 5-10% to require hospitalization — You’d only expect 1-2 of those people to need hospitalization. So the drop from 1-2 shouldn’t inspire massive confidence that there is “100% effectiveness against hospitalization.”
And the fact that there were 0 deaths deals with an even smaller sample size. Ok, 0 out of 20 died.... And the normal IFR of about 0.5% suggests that in a random sample of 20 infections, you’d probably get 0 deaths.

 

[havoc315]

Those are some big assumptions. People weren't willing to do the right thing at the height of the pandemic they definitly aren't going to be willing to do it once vaccines are widely available and cases has gone down significantly.

Yup. Which is why we may get into quite a political storm about compulsory vaccination, vaccine passports, etc.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Remember CDC now recommending 2 masks and no sign Disney will implement that.

They’re really not.

Masks and Respirators

Wear a mask with the best fit, protection, and comfort for you.

www.cdc.gov

 

[JoeCamel]

People weren't willing to do the right thing at the height of the pandemic they definitly aren't going to be willing to do it once vaccines are widely available and cases has gone down significantly.

That is sad because of the side benefit of crushing the flu. A chart that really highlights what a difference wearing masks can have on a virus. I'm all for wearing them if we ditch the marginal yearly flu shot and keep the bugs to ourselves rather than spreading the wealth of germs.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

This is very true.

Remember CDC now recommending 2 masks and no sign Disney will implement that.

Disney will ALWAYS do what is necessary to conduct business.

I think Disney will keep the masks through the rest of this year but slowly get rid of the social distancing as the vaccines get into more people.

I think the social distancing in Disney is already on the way out. No, Disney still says it’s there but from what the last 3 clients of my wife has said when they got home.. it’s barely if at all being enforced.. and they found themselves leavings parks early on a few days because of that situation. So yes, face masks and distancing are still being touted on the website and signs.. but one of them really isn’t happening.

 

[danlb_2000]

The only indoor show I know that is open is Frozen Sing along. There might be others but that is the only one I know for sure that is open.

If you count indoor shows without live performers then there is Carousel of Progress, Muppets, and Country Bears.

 

[Chi84]

That is sad because of the side benefit of crushing the flu. A chart that really highlights what a difference wearing masks can have on a virus. I'm all for wearing them if we ditch the marginal yearly flu shot and keep the bugs to ourselves rather than spreading the wealth of germs.

View attachment 534491

You mean voluntarily, though, right? I suppose people could choose to wear a mask the entire flu season instead of getting a flu shot, but I sure wouldn't. Shot takes a few seconds and that's it.

 

[Mark52479]

If you count indoor shows without live performers then there is Carousel of Progress, Muppets, and Country Bears.

how can I forget Country Bears. My favorite.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That is sad because of the side benefit of crushing the flu. A chart that really highlights what a difference wearing masks can have on a virus. I'm all for wearing them if we ditch the marginal yearly flu shot and keep the bugs to ourselves rather than spreading the wealth of germs.

View attachment 534491

It really is. The flu isn’t even a blip this year because of better disease/health consciousness...and yet people still debate if precautions work?

The proof can only be “the proof”...it can’t do parlor tricks for you too

I think the social distancing in Disney is already on the way out. No, Disney still says it’s there but from what the last 3 clients of my wife has said when they got home.. it’s barely if at all being enforced.. and they found themselves leavings parks early on a few days because of that situation. So yes, face masks and distancing are still being touted on the website and signs.. but one of them really isn’t happening.

I didn’t really expect them to hold too long../the climate in Florida (as in attitude) doesn’t help at all.

But I’ll be more interested to see if they drop the restrictions more...and second: if the hotels open.

They can have AP holders/locals/dvc etc running around limited capacity parks loving it for awhile...but Disney will start taking more draconian cuts/reductions/increases if the place doesn’t start to fill. That starts first with full hotel capacity and then fans out. And that’s on the US market...because their prime out of country markets are down more indefinitely.

 

[danlb_2000]

This is very true.

Remember CDC now recommending 2 masks and no sign Disney will implement that.

Disney will ALWAYS do what is necessary to conduct business.

I think Disney will keep the masks through the rest of this year but slowly get rid of the social distancing as the vaccines get into more people.

The recommendation isn't really about 2 masks, it about having good multi-layer, well fitting face coverings, whether that be a single, high quality masks, or doubling up on lower quality masks. It would be hard to mandate everyone entering Disney should wear 2 masks.

 

[drizgirl]

And I would counter that many millions of people had a year out of their lives where they actually slowed down, spent more time with immediate family, learned to cook better, and wholly improved their lives as a result.

Trying to paint it as some positive is incredibly rude and patronizing. Some of us lost our primary income and health insurance for months. Some lost businesses and life savings. Some will never be able to recover economically. Some older people missed their last opportunity to spend a holiday with their loved ones.