Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

So was Avatar 3 self funded by Cameron and Disney/Fox is just the distributor? I would assume the split between Cameron and Disney isn't 50/50. Does that make the Avatar series the biggest independent movies ever?

No, Disney finances. Cameron just has a lot of participation when the movie makes money.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The movie isn’t successful until it makes the $1.3-$1.4 billion it needs to be profitable.

You gonna bet the ranch that this hauls in more than Zootopia 2?

I’ve been right on every Disney miss this year and last. You might want to check your record before you start gaslighting people.


Merry Christmas!

Don't you know? Each and every movie Disney releases is considered a "success" by Disney, no matter what is made or lost.

I suspect Disney will take the crown for highest gross in 2025? It does not matter how much it actually cost them for the crown.

 

[Phroobar]

Don't you know? Each and every movie Disney releases is considered a "success" by Disney, no matter what is made or lost.

I suspect Disney will take the crown for highest gross in 2025? It does not matter how much it actually cost them for the crown.

The movie is the loss leader. It's the IP merchandising (and streaming) where the real money is made.

 

[Disney Irish]

So was Avatar 3 self funded by Cameron and Disney/Fox is just the distributor? I would assume the split between Cameron and Disney isn't 50/50. Does that make the Avatar series the biggest independent movies ever?

Nope, Disney/20th Century finances it through their financing partner TSG Entertainment.

 

[BrianLo]

Don't you know? Each and every movie Disney releases is considered a "success" by Disney, no matter what is made or lost.

I suspect Disney will take the crown for highest gross in 2025? It does not matter how much it actually cost them for the crown.

It’s flagrantly sarcastic comments like these that get misremebered 4-6 months later and get assigned to people who didn’t make them.

Tron and Elio were big flops this year. The Marvel slate was anemic.

As I said, this is the tentpole strategy. They take 10-ish big swings annually and hope to have a grand slam. The trouble is many studios have tried to follow Disney down the rabbit hole and find themselves less successful at it, because they never get their home run, let alone a grand slam. As Disney experienced readily in 2023.

They are pretty happy when three tentpole films connect a year and all the rest isn’t a complete and utter wasteland, that’s a good year for them. They’ll forever be chasing the highs of 2019 when they hit big 7 times. Something I highly doubt we ever see again.

 

[Disney Irish]

You know what's funny, TSG's logo is Odysseus shooting an arrow through axes, which is described famously in The Odyssey, but they aren't financing Nolan's movie. Lol.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It’s flagrantly sarcastic comments like these that get misremebered 4-6 months later and get assigned to people who didn’t make them.

Tron and Elio were big flops this year. The Marvel slate was anemic.

As I said, this is the tentpole strategy. They take 10-ish big swings annually and hope to have a grand slam. The trouble is many studios have tried to follow Disney down the rabbit hole and find themselves less successful at it, because they never get their home run, let alone a grand slam. As Disney experienced readily in 2023.

They are pretty happy when three tentpole films connect a year and all the rest isn’t a complete and utter wasteland, that’s a good year for them. They’ll forever be chasing the highs of 2019 when they hit big 7 times. Something I highly doubt we ever see again.

Totally not sarcastic and totally factual.

Disney does consider everything they release as a success no matter how much is made or lost and Disney will probably take the crown for top grossing movie studio in 2025.

 

[Disney Irish]

Iger’s strategy: Hope that the 3 movies that were profitable make up for the rest of the movies that bombed.

Um, you just described the strategy of every studio in Hollywood since at least the 1990s before Iger was even CEO. So if anything Iger is just following the same playbook. Not saying its the right playbook, just saying he didn't invent it or isn't the one to put it into motion first.

And this is how Hollywood is able to finance many smaller movies, off the backs of the tent poles that do well.

 

[coffeefan]

This is just too funny, you’d have to be pretty low on brain power to read this and think oh wow this is great without even doing just a fraction of a percentage of critical thought.


Iger’s strategy: Hope that the 3 movies that were profitable make up for the rest of the movies that bombed.

 

[coffeefan]

I’ve been right on every Disney miss this year and last. You might want to check your record before you start gaslighting people.

Audiences don’t want what Disney is putting out.

Also unpopular opinion, I think Zootopia is gonna flop.

 

[monothingie]

I am not starting a battle here… this is the last I will say on the matter to you…I have never made any bold predictions… Maybe guesses…. I always root for every studio to do well….even if I don’t care for the movie… as I am happy someone enjoyed it….as my favorite mode of watching movies is theaters…. I go every week… guess I like to keep things positive

Meanwhile by your own admission… you can’t stand “modern cinema”…which begs the question why are you here…. The only thing I can figure is you are rooting against theaters

When Bob Iger’s self stated goal is to produce “product” for consumption, anyone with half a brain cell should be against that. When a studio like Disney took beloved franchises like Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Marvel, Pixar, and others and ran them into the ground in search of quick profits I’m going to root against that. When they just churn out slop D+ content, I’m going to be against that. When they spend hundreds of millions on that slop I’m going to be against that.

The question then becomes, why are you for that? Don’t you want better than the expensive crap that has come out? Don’t you want a better cinematic experience?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Nope, Disney/20th Century finances it through their financing partner TSG Entertainment.

I always find Avatar finances interesting because they’re so muddy.

I’ve read conflicting reports online, I’ve read articles that say the movie is produced and financed by Lightstorm Entertainment (Cameron’s Independent company) and only distributed by Fox, I’ve also read others that say it’s co-produced and distributed by Fox (but doesn’t mention funding), but the TSG website also has it listed as a film they financed.

I seem to remember a similar conversation regarding the last Avatar where the group was trying to figure out who paid for what and how the money was split in the end and that was muddy as well.

Avatar has always been a confusing money situation with who pays for what and how the money gets split up in the end. If I remember correctly TSG even sued Fox over the last film saying they didn’t get paid for some of the tv and distribution deals.

Confusing may be an understatement with this films.

 

[BrianLo]

His first post on this thread is from March 2025 telling us he just discovered this thread. But the claim is he's correctly guessed every miss, which I suppose is true if your default position is miss.

Though like I've previously said, I'm judging character not by being wrong (which we all often are because none of us see the future), but how one handles it.

 

[Chi84]

His first post on this thread is from March 2025 telling us he just discovered this thread. But the claim is he's correctly guessed every miss, which I suppose is true if your default position is miss.

Though like I've previously said, I'm judging character not by being wrong (which we all often are because none of us see the future), but how one handles it.

Ran out of other threads to criticize Disney. Knowledge of the subject matter is optional.

 

[Disney Irish]

I always find Avatar finances interesting because they’re so muddy.

I’ve read conflicting reports online, I’ve read articles that say the movie is produced and financed by Lightstorm Entertainment (Cameron’s Independent company) and only distributed by Fox, I’ve also read others that say it’s co-produced and distributed by Fox (but doesn’t mention funding), but the TSG website also has it listed as a film they financed.

I seem to remember a similar conversation regarding the last Avatar where the group was trying to figure out who paid for what and how the money was split in the end and that was muddy as well.

Avatar has always been a confusing money situation with who pays for what and how the money gets split up in the end. If I remember correctly TSG even sued Fox over the last film saying they didn’t get paid for some of the tv and distribution deals.

Confusing may be an understatement with this films.

Hollywood financing has always been murky at best. But 20th Century has used many financing companies over the years including TSG, Dune Entertainment, RatPac Entertainment and a few others. Disney has continued using them along with others after the 21st Century acquisition.

But no Cameron as far as I’m aware never financed any of the Avatar movies directly himself but rather invests in the technologies to make them or foregoing salaries and taking backend profit instead. So if you want to say that he spent money making the movies, you’d be partial correct in a sense but the actual production was financed by the studio.

 

[DKampy]

You can thank the Chi-coms for that. Good thing they allowed be shown there. (Thanks orange man for that?) It certainly underperformed domestically compared to Moanna 2.

Zootopia 2 iwill be a top 3 movie of the year domestically… maybe top 4 depending on Avatar

 

[BrianLo]

Zootopia 2 iwill be a top 3 movie of the year domestically… maybe top 4 depending on Avatar

Indeed. We might be surprised how much Z2 continues to bridge the gap on Moana 2, domestically.

As is, if you completely back China out of Zootopia 1 and Zootopia 2, the latter is only 40M off the former. It still has another 100M+ left in the tank domestically and whatever International minus China brings along. It might even clear 1 billion without China.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[coffeefan]

 

[BrianLo]

Some interesting trends I’m following