Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

See this:

Why am I not surprised to find out those Monday statements were made without any credibility? I will say though that domestic doesn’t really mark the goal, it’s how sticky this one ends up internationally.

Its opening weekend international numbers were only 18% off Way of Water. Next Sunday’s tally will say a lot for many reasons. The least of which is a much more generous holiday placement. Christmas Eve on a Saturday and New Years on a Saturday were not in Way of Waters Favour. So who knows, maybe we’ll be bridging a gap and reintroducing 2B back into the conversation come New Year’s Day.

 

[Disney Analyst]

One of my barometers are my in-laws. The definition of general public, rarely go to the movies. They love Avatar though, and went to the third instalment tonight for their 37th anniversary. They came back raving about it - which tells me the general public will love it yet again, which I think means legs for days.

(Obviously anecdotal.)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Why am I not surprised to find out those Monday statements were made without any credibility? I will say though that domestic doesn’t really mark the goal, it’s how sticky this one ends up internationally.

Its opening weekend international numbers were only 18% off Way of Water. Next Sunday’s tally will say a lot for many reasons. The least of which is a much more generous holiday placement. Christmas Eve on a Saturday and New Years on a Saturday were not in Way of Waters Favour. So who knows, maybe we’ll be bridging a gap and reintroducing 2B back into the conversation come New Year’s Day.

That’s what’s been happening here for years…grasping at anything. Started with the last Johnson…predetermined point has to be reinforced

We constantly see this Luisa Ferdinando dude retweeted as gospel…but he’s just the DOODE or Tim trakker of movies…
Self appointed expert that just spins available data with some kinda one like commentary…

Most patterns hold…that’s why we use that word. Sometimes movies fall on the edges of the scatter plot. Good or bad side

 

[monothingie]

Why am I not surprised to find out those Monday statements were made without any credibility? I will say though that domestic doesn’t really mark the goal, it’s how sticky this one ends up internationally.

Its opening weekend international numbers were only 18% off Way of Water. Next Sunday’s tally will say a lot for many reasons. The least of which is a much more generous holiday placement. Christmas Eve on a Saturday and New Years on a Saturday were not in Way of Waters Favour. So who knows, maybe we’ll be bridging a gap and reintroducing 2B back into the conversation come New Year’s Day.

I seem to remember the consensus opening "weekend" domestic forecast of between $100M-120M and we wound up with $89M.

Now random social media site making up yet another forecast and it is the gospel....confirmation bias anyone?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I seem to remember the consensus opening "weekend" domestic forecast of between $100M-120M and we wound up with $89M.

Now random social media site making up yet another forecast and it is the gospel....confirmation bias anyone?

 

[DKampy]

One of my barometers are my in-laws. The definition of general public, rarely go to the movies. They love Avatar though, and went to the third instalment tonight for their 37th anniversary. They came back raving about it - which tells me the general public will love it yet again, which I think means legs for days.

(Obviously anecdotal.)

I have had the same thoughts…. My Parents are now mine…. They use go the movies more…. But they are now among the people the theaters lost after the pandemic…. They have gone to exactly 2 movies since…. Barbie and The Way of Water….. they now plan on a third…. Fire and Ash

 

[monothingie]

I have had the same thoughts…. My Parents are now mine…. They use go the movies more…. But they are now among the people the theaters lost after the pandemic…. They have gone to exactly 2 movies since…. Barbie and The Way of Water….. they now plan on a third…. Fire and Ash

My goldfish loves the avatar movies! It can’t wait for the next exciting installment. Everyone loves goldfish and they’re a good barometer of what people like so therefore everyone must be the same and the movie universally loved.

 

[Disney Analyst]

My goldfish loves the avatar movies! It can’t wait for the next exciting installment. Everyone loves goldfish and they’re a good barometer of what people like so therefore everyone must be the same and the movie universally loved.

Always trust in Goldie.

 

[DKampy]

My goldfish loves the avatar movies! It can’t wait for the next exciting installment. Everyone loves goldfish and they’re a good barometer of what people like so therefore everyone must be the same and the movie universally loved.

Great…. I will know who Monothingie is if I see someone at Avatar with a plastic bag with water and a goldfish inside

 

[monothingie]

Great…. I will know who Monothingie is if I see someone at Avatar with a plastic bag with water and a goldfish inside

The goldfish goes alone now. I just don't have the attention span anymore for modern cinema.

 

[Disney Irish]

Great…. I will know who Monothingie is if I see someone at Avatar with a plastic bag with water and a goldfish inside

You'll know who the fish is because he'll look like this

 

[BrianLo]

I seem to remember the consensus opening "weekend" domestic forecast of between $100M-120M and we wound up with $89M.

Now random social media site making up yet another forecast and it is the gospel....confirmation bias anyone?

I specifically was responding towards credibility regarding the Monday domestic holds, at the end point of that conversation thread. I already explained that next weekend will of course look potentially unnaturally better with the holidays and domestic is the side show.

View attachment 898856

Hey, my guess was firmly lodged in the summer! No shifting going on at least for me, in fact I doubled down.

It’s all fun anyways, I don’t think accountability rests at all on the future, but it does certainly apply to not twisting the present.

This is the fourth year we’ve had these holiday conversations though. Even if this specific thread post dates Way of Water, most of the same crew was here for that. Much less so Frozen 2, that was a different user subset.

 

[BrianLo]

The studios did very poorly in 2023, very well in 2024 and 2025 the jury might be heading for a mixed or even poor bag unless Zootopia (and Avatar) end on a high note.

Walt Disney Studios Officially First & Only Studio To Cross $6B WW In 2025; ‘Avatar: Fire & Ash’ At $450M WW

Disney Studios continues to show the power of the theatrical window as the Burbank, CA lot is officially crossing the $6 billion worldwide threshold today. Broken out that’s $2.3B domestic, the best for any major motion picture studio stateside YTD, and $3.65B in international B.O. We told you...

deadline.com

Iger’s lean tentpole strategy once again came together at the 11th hour. Unfortunately, it works, when most other studios can’t seem to figure anything out.

 

[DKampy]

The goldfish goes alone now. I just don't have the attention span anymore for modern cinema.

I figured as much…. You seem to be one of those that is around when there is a narrative to spin…. But as soon as a Disney film is successful… you slink away again

 

[monothingie]

I figured as much…. You seem to be one of those that is around when there is a narrative to spin…. But as soon as a Disney film is successful… you slink away again

The movie isn’t successful until it makes the $1.3-$1.4 billion it needs to be profitable.

You gonna bet the ranch that this hauls in more than Zootopia 2?

I’ve been right on every Disney miss this year and last. You might want to check your record before you start gaslighting people.


Merry Christmas!

 

[Disney Analyst]

Walt Disney Studios Officially First & Only Studio To Cross $6B WW In 2025; ‘Avatar: Fire & Ash’ At $450M WW

Disney Studios continues to show the power of the theatrical window as the Burbank, CA lot is officially crossing the $6 billion worldwide threshold today. Broken out that’s $2.3B domestic, the best for any major motion picture studio stateside YTD, and $3.65B in international B.O. We told you...

deadline.com

Iger’s lean tentpole strategy once again came together at the 11th hour. Unfortunately, it works, when most other studios can’t seem to figure anything out.

Just saw the tweet. First time since 2019! Wow.

Any one have a clue how much budgets were this year, total? Curious how much in the red, black, or green they are at 6 billion?

 

[monothingie]

Walt Disney Studios Officially First & Only Studio To Cross $6B WW In 2025; ‘Avatar: Fire & Ash’ At $450M WW

Disney Studios continues to show the power of the theatrical window as the Burbank, CA lot is officially crossing the $6 billion worldwide threshold today. Broken out that’s $2.3B domestic, the best for any major motion picture studio stateside YTD, and $3.65B in international B.O. We told you...

deadline.com

Iger’s lean tentpole strategy once again came together at the 11th hour. Unfortunately, it works, when most other studios can’t seem to figure anything out.

This is just too funny, you’d have to be pretty low on brain power to read this and think oh wow this is great without even doing just a fraction of a percentage of critical thought.


Iger’s strategy: Hope that the 3 movies that were profitable make up for the rest of the movies that bombed.

 

[DKampy]

The movie isn’t successful until it makes the $1.3-$1.4 billion it needs to be profitable.

You gonna bet the ranch that this hauls in more than Zootopia 2?

I’ve been right on every Disney miss this year and last. You might want to check your record before you start gaslighting people.


Merry Christmas!

I am not starting a battle here… this is the last I will say on the matter to you…I have never made any bold predictions… Maybe guesses…. I always root for every studio to do well….even if I don’t care for the movie… as I am happy someone enjoyed it….as my favorite mode of watching movies is theaters…. I go every week… guess I like to keep things positive

Meanwhile by your own admission… you can’t stand “modern cinema”…which begs the question why are you here…. The only thing I can figure is you are rooting against theaters

 

[BrianLo]

Just saw the tweet. First time since 2019! Wow.

Any one have a clue how much budgets were this year, total? Curious how much in the red, black, or green they are at 6 billion?

As of October 1 the studio segment is +80M. So it will largely depend on how much Zootopia 2 counteracted Tron. I think Fire and Ash will kind of be breaking even around year end and most of its profitable earnings will hit the books next year.

So probably 400-500M positive.

 

[Phroobar]

So was Avatar 3 self funded by Cameron and Disney/Fox is just the distributor? I would assume the split between Cameron and Disney isn't 50/50. Does that make the Avatar series the biggest independent movies ever?