Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Analyst]

Does that include losses?

What do losses have to do with the box office gross?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Haven’t been in this thread lately, but this popped into my feed.



So do we think this will be a 6-7 billion year once the receipts are counted for Zootopia and Avatar?

This looks to be for calendar year 2025, which would include the money Mufasa made after January 1

Because of Avatar's late release date (Dec 19) Disney may not get to $7 billion by Dec 31

 

[Disney Analyst]

This looks to be for calendar year 2025, which would include the money Mufasa made after January 1

Because of Avatar's late release date (Dec 19) Disney may not get to $7 billion by Dec 31

It all counts toward the 2025 gross if released in 2025. Even if majority of avatar box office is earned in 2026.

It shouldn’t included Mufasa if released last year, but not sure what Scott’s basing his numbers on.

ETA: maybe I’m wrong and this isn’t accurate??

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The $4 billion sounds impressive, but when you look at the grosses, only 2 Disney releases this year have made over $500 million globally so far. Here's their top 5 for the year to date, across all their divisions:

Lilo and Stitch: $1,037,869,882
Fantastic Four: $521,858,728
Captain America: $415,101,577 (considered disappointing in Feb, but ironically one of their better performing titles)
Thunderbolts: $382,436,917
Snow White: $205,679,463 (yes, really, because Elio, Tron and Freakier Friday did not gross over $200 million)

 

[TP2000]

First pass box office is in for this weekend. Predator: Badlands opened with a $40 Million domestic weekend, beating expectations by $5 to $10 Million. It got the same box office (estimate) overseas, and it opened in every country on Friday except Portugal (por que?). The other movie with a colon from Burbank, Tron: Ares, dropped to 10th this weekend.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for December 26, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of December 26, 2025

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Phroobar]

What do losses have to do with the box office gross?

Just wanted to know the net box office. The gross really doesn't mean much.

 

[Phroobar]

So when does the Matterhorn go down for Predator Mountain overlay?

 

[TP2000]

The $4 billion sounds impressive, but when you look at the grosses, only 2 Disney releases this year have made over $500 million globally so far. Here's their top 5 for the year to date, across all their divisions:

Lilo and Stitch: $1,037,869,882
Fantastic Four: $521,858,728
Captain America: $415,101,577 (considered disappointing in Feb, but ironically one of their better performing titles)
Thunderbolts: $382,436,917
Snow White: $205,679,463 (yes, really, because Elio, Tron and Freakier Friday did not gross over $200 million)

And then, when you look at the production budgets for all five of those top grossing movies, you see that most of them lost money. Even with Lilo & Stitch raking in almost $370 Million in profit alone because it was outsourced off the Burbank lot with only a $100 Million budget, the other money losing movies in that list whiddled down the net profit from all five movies combined to just $93 Million.

I've said it before, but the team at Ridgeback Ranch who produced Lilo & Stitch deserves another muffin basket from Bob!

Lilo & Stitch: $100 Production (and assuming $100 on Marketing for that tent pole), $1,037 Box Office = $369 Profit
Fantastic Four: $200 Production, $521 Box Office = $10 Profit
Captain America: $180 Production, $414 Box Office = $18 Loss
Thunderbolts Asterisk: $180 Production, $382 Box Office = $34 Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White: $269 Production, $206 Box Office = $234 Loss

And another thought gang... How much do we all miss Rachel Zegler? She made things such fun.

 

[TP2000]

What do losses have to do with the box office gross?

It's part of the box office discussion.

If Burbank spends $270 Million to make a movie before they spent another $100 Million on global marketing, but then that movie only made a global box office gross of $206 Million, that's a huge problem worth discussing.

In that scenario with a box office gross of $206 Million, Disney just lost $234 Million on that one movie alone.

 

[TP2000]

At only 100 million budget…looking good that it will make a profit theatrically

Should be able to make their marketing budget back with the profits from theatrical.

With an astonishingly small (for Burbank) budget of only $100 Million, using the Metric system Predator: Badlands will need to make $250 Million at the global box office to break even.

With a roughly $80 Million global box office opening weekend, and having opened in all overseas markets except Portugal this weekend, it will need a week to week decline of only 25% globally in order to leg out to a $250 Million global total by mid December.

We can certainly watch it's week to week progression (cause you know, that's what we do in this thread), but losing only 25% of its box office by next week, and then continuing that very strong performance for another month, seems overly optimistic at this point. Then again, what do I know about Pop Culture???

 

[Disney Analyst]

It's part of the box office discussion.

If Burbank spends $270 Million to make a movie before they spent another $100 Million on global marketing, but then that movie only made a global box office gross of $206 Million, that's a huge problem worth discussing.

In that scenario with a box office gross of $206 Million, Disney just lost $234 Million on that one movie alone.

Sure. But it’s not a part of the way the industry or trades discuss the studio box office race. They just put out the gross total for each studio, as that’s the flashy number they all care about.

 

[monothingie]

At only 100 million budget…looking good that it will make a profit theatrically

It needs 200 million just to break even. That doesn’t even include marketing. It won’t even come close to Breaking even.

 

[monothingie]

And then, when you look at the production budgets for all five of those top grossing movies, you see that most of them lost money. Even with Lilo & Stitch raking in almost $370 Million in profit alone because it was outsourced off the Burbank lot with only a $100 Million budget, the other money losing movies in that list whiddled down the net profit from all five movies combined to just $93 Million.

I've said it before, but the team at Ridgeback Ranch who produced Lilo & Stitch deserves another muffin basket from Bob!

Lilo & Stitch: $100 Production (and assuming $100 on Marketing for that tent pole), $1,037 Box Office = $369 Profit
Fantastic Four: $200 Production, $521 Box Office = $10 Profit
Captain America: $180 Production, $414 Box Office = $18 Loss
Thunderbolts Asterisk: $180 Production, $382 Box Office = $34 Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White: $269 Production, $206 Box Office = $234 Loss

View attachment 892234

And another thought gang... How much do we all miss Rachel Zegler? She made things such fun.

And you’re assuming the budget numbers are even close to accurate for the larger bombs that they had. Disney always over spends. They’re just now figuring out how much they overspent for the last two movies in the Disney Star Wars trilogy. It was bad.

Audiences don’t want what Disney is putting out.

Also unpopular opinion, I think Zootopia is gonna flop.

 

[TP2000]

And you’re assuming the budget numbers are even close to accurate for the larger bombs that they had. Disney always over spends. They’re just now figuring out how much they overspent for the last two movies in the Disney Star Wars trilogy. It was bad.

Audiences don’t want what Disney is putting out.

Well, that's often true. I mean, we all know that $270 Million budget for Rachel Zegler's Snow White was circa 2023, before the various rewrites and reshoots in 2024 to put the Dwarves back in, to tidy up the plotline mess Miss Zegler made etc., etc.

But honestly, I'm just keeping my head above water here posting the pro-industry dollar figures that Burbank will publicly admit to. I can't even imagine the bullet-proof smoking jacket I'd have to wear here if I dared try to question the budgets.

It was a minor miracle we could agree that they spent at least $100 Million to market Lilo & Stitch globally, instead of the $50 Million its ridiculously low production budget would otherwise suggest a modest movie would get for marketing.

Also unpopular opinion, I think Zootopia is gonna flop.

I don't have a read on that yet, I'll need to do a Target run next weekend and check the toy aisles and kids clothing department to form an opinion. That's how I conduct my peer-reviewed science on such things.

But it could do well in Communist China? They built an entire Zootopia Land at Shanghai Disneyland, after all.

 

[TP2000]

Sure. But it’s not a part of the way the industry or trades discuss the studio box office race. They just put out the gross total for each studio, as that’s the flashy number they all care about.

Something tells me the studio executives do actually care about their profits and losses. Call me crazy.

 

[monothingie]

But it could do well in Communist China? They built an entire Zootopia Land at Shanghai Disneyland, after all.

What do they only get back $.10 on the dollar for theater revenue from the Chicoms?

 

[monothingie]

Sure. But it’s not a part of the way the industry or trades discuss the studio box office race. They just put out the gross total for each studio, as that’s the flashy number they all care about.

Yep, the studios love it as they’re all being consolidated and sold and broken up and merged, and whatever nonsense a failing industry engages in.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Something tells me the studio executives do actually care about their profits and losses. Call me crazy.

That wasn’t the point of the post I shared

 

[DKampy]

So you don't see any R rated movies yourself or you don't see any with your kids??

Yes at all… him and I had this conversation couple of years ago discussing Poor Things….Mentioned the family does not watch Rated R movies… It was recommended not to watch with his Kids…. And he explained. Their household has rules and what would his wife think if she walked in on him watching a rated R movie

 

[Disney Irish]

Something tells me the studio executives do actually care about their profits and losses. Call me crazy.

Call me crazy, but since some of you question the public numbers released I don’t think the studio execs worry or care as much as you think.

Plus if they do care it’s primarily about year end numbers not individual movies. So as long as the year end numbers are in the black that is all that matters and they’ll be happy.