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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
I think what is helping some Horror movies is the focus on more elevated horror like Sinners and Weapons…. As those films are attracting film fans outside of the horror genre who want more than cheap scares…. Final Destination was more camp…. That was gone long enough for people to miss it
I will admit… I am at a loss for the Conjuring….it is probably the biggest surprise to me box office wise this year… the last movie was only a couple years ago… plus the franchise has seen diminishing returns on the last few movies…. Plus it sure does not feel like word of mouth is off the charts to me
BlindChow
Well-Known Member
For those who aren't able (or don't want) to watch the clip, here's what she says about Black Widow:
"That instance was a business affairs issue (laughs), and, you know, it was resolved. And, of course it was a time of transition; it was, certainly, then, as we all tried to understand how this shifting model would work. Luckily, I could shoulder the burden of that, and hopefully it's better for everyone because of it." She doesn't seem to make any connection between that experience and her new film.
The Variety tweet's blurb makes it sound like she might involved in a protest or something, but no, just clickbait phrasing.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
As I said in that post you quoted, I'll be the canary in the coalmine here and warn about what I see. Its a trend that I started to notice last year that continued into this year. And that article you posted doesn't indicate anything that I don't already know. When you have 90+ movies of a particular genre releasing in a year its bound it have some ticket sales and cause it to cross $1B, which the article doesn't mention. But how many of those were actually successes, hmm? As said in another post, we've had 3-4 successes, a few so-so movies (less than 10), and everything else fail. I'm sorry but when you have more than 50-60% of a particular genre's movies fail in a single year there is something up there beyond just "bad movies". You may not want to see it, but its pretty glaring when you take off the glasses. I mean if this was Disney you'd be jumping all over the chance to call them out for releasing so many bombs in a year. So why not an entire genre?I’m sorry, but changing one word to a passive phrase doesn’t mean you didn’t completely misread the room on the state of horror. Audiences have shifted more towards the genre, not less, which is the opposite of how your original framing suggested.
Horror box office blows past $1 billion for 2025 as 'The Conjuring: Last Rites' takes in third-largest domestic opening ever
The sequel's $83 million domestic haul was the third-highest for a horror movie. It was the largest horror opening internationally, with $104 million.fortune.com
But as I also said in yet another post, if I'm wrong I'm wrong but the data so far doesn't seem to indicate that I am.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Umm, except that is exactly what Hollywood does though. And its what we all comment on here weekly when talking about the box office. And why we have 90+ horror movies releasing this year, because Hollywood saw a trend a couple years ago and decided to capitalize on the trend at the time. Well the trend has now shifted the other way in my opinion. And in the upcoming years we should start seeing less horror movies in a year being released as a result of the amount of failures that happened this year. Its the ever swinging pendulum of the Hollywood trend tracker.I've never mentioned fatigue or shifting tastes at all.
Just making a joke on how predictable some people here are when it comes to having to admit they might be wrong on the internet. (Whataboutism is a pretty standard response, however...)
Anyway, in my opinion, it all depends the individual film, and trying to diagnose "trends" based on something as broad as an entire genre is silly. There was even someone here trying to claim there was "action fatigue"!Can you imagine? "People just aren't interested in seeing movies with action anymore!"
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Well theater owners are starting to do deep discount programs trying to entice fans back to the theaters with the glut of horror movies coming out between now and the end of the year -
www.hollywoodreporter.com
Not something you do if audiences weren't starting to shift their tastes away from the genre. This is similar to the discount programs they've tried to do in general trying to get movie goers back over the last couple years, with fairly muted results as we've discussed.
AMC Theatres Offers Horror Fans Cost-Saving “Slash Pass” Timed to ‘The Conjuring: The Last Rites’
For $66.66, moviegoers can see six films participating in the limited-time program between now and the end of the year, including over Halloween.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
Not something you do if audiences weren't starting to shift their tastes away from the genre. This is similar to the discount programs they've tried to do in general trying to get movie goers back over the last couple years, with fairly muted results as we've discussed.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
I guess it made a profit now.
| Production Budget: | $200,000,000 (worldwide box office is 2.6 times production budget) |
As did Superman. $225,000,000 (worldwide box office is 2.7 times production budget)
And the Conjuring Last Rites: $55,000,000 (worldwide box office is 3.5 times production budget)
BlindChow
Well-Known Member
From that article:I’m sorry, but changing one word to a passive phrase doesn’t mean you didn’t completely misread the room on the state of horror. Audiences have shifted more towards the genre, not less, which is the opposite of how your original framing suggested.
Horror box office blows past $1 billion for 2025 as 'The Conjuring: Last Rites' takes in third-largest domestic opening ever
The sequel's $83 million domestic haul was the third-highest for a horror movie. It was the largest horror opening internationally, with $104 million.
“It just shows how arguably more than any other genre, horror has stood the test of time,” Dergarabedian said. “That’s because there’s nothing quite like seeing a horror movie in a darkened room full of strangers.”
The horror genre last crossed the $1 billion mark in 2023. Meeting that threshold this early in the year is unprecedented, Dergarabedian said, “because usually you need a full year of horror movie box office to bank that much cash.”
Upcoming horror films like “Black Phone 2” and “Five Nights at Freddy’s 2” are likely to boost that number, Dergarabedian said.
Also this:[The Conjuring]’s opening weekend numbers are nearly double that of other successful horror movies this year, including Zach Cregger’s August sleeper hit “Weapons,”“Final Destination: Bloodlines” and “Sinners”...
I don't know, sounds like horror might be in real trouble!
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
I love horror movies. However my favorites are the classic Universal Monsters with the Creature from the Black Lagoon toping my list. Nothing beats Julie Adams in her white bathing suit. It's also the first movie monster ever created by a woman. Millicent Patrick was a former Disney illustrator and who worked on Chernabog in Fantasia.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
So much so that theater chains are now running deep discounts trying to get horror fans back to the theaters from now until the end of the year.
As we've been told around here many times, you don't run discounts when everything is good.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I'm going to just put this right here, this was from just a couple months ago and I doubt the sentiment changed just because of Conjuring this past weekend -
variety.com
Its clear the industry is concerned about it too, so its not just me crying wolf here.
‘Sinners’ and ‘Superman’ Are Hits, but Superheroes and Horror Movies Are No Longer Box Office Guarantees
'Sinners' and 'Superman' were hits, but not everything of the horror and superhero ilk is resonating at the box office.
variety.com
Its clear the industry is concerned about it too, so its not just me crying wolf here.
BlindChow
Well-Known Member
Sounds to me like they're cashing in on a trend.Well theater owners are starting to do deep discount programs trying to entice fans back to the theaters with the glut of horror movies coming out between now and the end of the year -
AMC Theatres Offers Horror Fans Cost-Saving “Slash Pass” Timed to ‘The Conjuring: The Last Rites’
For $66.66, moviegoers can see six films participating in the limited-time program between now and the end of the year, including over Halloween.
Not something you do if audiences weren't starting to shift their tastes away from the genre. This is similar to the discount programs they've tried to do in general trying to get movie goers back over the last couple years, with fairly muted results as we've discussed.
You admit yourself they've been trying similar promotions for movies in general to limited success. What, it didn't work when you could watch ANY movie, so now they're going to try it with an "underperforming" genre that no one likes anymore instead?
Seriously though, it's clearly part of a Halloween promotion, and I think they're ecstatic so many horror movies have broken through this year. Also, calling it a "deep discount" is just wrong. $11.11 per film is actually more expensive than matinee showings in most parts of the country (which you'd think would be the minimum level to reach "deep discount" status).
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Woof. The spread here is terrible.
Sony… who prematurely sold off their “Frozen”.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Did you read the part where it says its now until the end of the year, or the part where they call out this an attempt to keep the fatigue at bay. Its not just a Halloween promotion. Its clear its meant to try to entice fans back, they even use the "f" word that people don't like.
Again as been thrown around here time and again when Disney does it, you don't do discounts (whether you say they aren't deep or not) when things are good. You do discounts when you are trying to bring consumers back because they've started to fall away.
coffeefan
Well-Known Member
Yeah, and to think how well-positioned they are to take advantage of the anime and video game trends. If only their executive team were better.
coffeefan
Well-Known Member
My point for sharing was her pointing out the transition happening in the industry. Since some still show hesitancy towards believing there's been a change.
coffeefan
Well-Known Member
Yes, certainly based on the numbers we know. We should also note that the 2.5x rule is based on historical domestic/os data. Since Supes and FF both leaned more domestic the profitability calculus also tilts more in their favor.