Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

James Gunn's immigrant Superman reached a new milestone.

Yes, of course, because goodness knows inflation hasn't changed prices since 1978 (Superman) when I had mastered The Hustle and a Honda Civic cost $3,200, or since 2006 (Superman Returns) when I'd mercifully vacated the dance floor and a Honda Civic cost $17,500, or to today in 2025 (Superman, By Marvel) when I don't dare give up my Early Bird barstool and a Honda Civic costs $26,500.

Back in the real world, where inflation happens and costs and dance crazes and hairdos and hemlines change over the decades, here's how those various Superman movies since 1978 actually stack up. Adjusted for 47 years of inflation.

 

[Tha Realest]

Yes, of course, because goodness knows inflation hasn't changed prices since 1978 (Superman) when I had mastered The Hustle and a Honda Civic cost $3,200, or since 2006 (Superman Returns) when I'd mercifully vacated the dance floor and a Honda Civic cost $17,500, or to today in 2025 (Superman, By Marvel) when I don't dare give up my Early Bird barstool and a Honda Civic costs $26,500.

Back in the real world, where inflation happens and costs and dance crazes and hairdos and hemlines change over the decades, here's how those various Superman movies since 1978 actually stack up. Adjusted for 47 years of inflation.

View attachment 874106

Adjusted for inflation, the first Fantastic Four film (Evans and Alba) made $550M worldwide. Let’s see how that compares when it’s all said and done to the current offering!

 

[DKampy]

Yes, of course, because goodness knows inflation hasn't changed prices since 1978 (Superman) when I had mastered The Hustle and a Honda Civic cost $3,200, or since 2006 (Superman Returns) when I'd mercifully vacated the dance floor and a Honda Civic cost $17,500, or to today in 2025 (Superman, By Marvel) when I don't dare give up my Early Bird barstool and a Honda Civic costs $26,500.

Back in the real world, where inflation happens and costs and dance crazes and hairdos and hemlines change over the decades, here's how those various Superman movies since 1978 actually stack up. Adjusted for 47 years of inflation.

View attachment 874106

Now gives us the production budget inflation rates…

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

My prediction of Superman being the top top grosser (domestically) of July releases is looking pretty good

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Now gives us the production budget inflation rates…

That’s a can of worms…because they are not being very “forthcoming” with the quoted budgets and cost overruns now

 

[brideck]

That’s a can of worms…because they are not being very “forthcoming” with the quoted budgets and cost overruns now

Also, TP's numbers are the adjusted prod budgets, which makes Gunn's movie the 2nd cheapest* Superman movie ever made.

* This is a little fuzzy since Superman 78 & Superman II was a dual production for the most part, so attributing cost to one or the other is a little silly.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Also, TP's numbers are the adjusted prod budgets, which makes Gunn's movie the 2nd cheapest* Superman movie ever made.

* This is a little fuzzy since Superman 78 & Superman II was a dual production for the most part, so attributing cost to one or the other is a little silly.

It’s very hard to do good monetary comparisons from the “early” blockbuster days to the modern spectacle of Hollywood.

The only way to fairly comp movies is to do an unscientific “feel” comparison over time.

For instance: the money for The Last Johnson at the box office was comparable in % drop to Empire Strikes back…

Equal, right?

Or one was perhaps the biggest movie in Hollywood history as far as how it changed the business - argument can be made…and created the concept of blockbuster IP…

And the other has caused literally billions of unquantifiable reputation and ancillary sales damage for almost 10 years…

Because of “the feel”…for lack of a better word. Beyond the math.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My prediction of Superman being the top top grosser (domestically) of July releases is looking pretty good

Yeah that’s pretty solid

Fantastic Four appears to be coming in for a hard landing

So much so that Burbank seems to be putting out some smoke. Like conveniently the “sponsorship deals” leaking out mid week after opening. Next will be “expectations aren’t the same for a franchise launch…”

Funny thing is Superman can make the same exact claims…but didn’t.
That Gunn “Unamerican” thing is weird though…which FF can now claim too,

Anyway…

A 60% drop for FF an no momentum overseas would be…not great…for Burbank

 

[brideck]

It’s very hard to do good monetary comparisons from the “early” blockbuster days to the modern spectacle of Hollywood.

See also the commoditization of modern special effects.

That Gunn “Unamerican” thing is weird though…which FF can now claim too,

Not sure I'm parsing your thoughts correctly, but is anyone actually surprised by the international markets pushing back against "American" products like superhero movies? For someone who likes to talk about brand damage a lot, it should be pretty obvious where the problem lies here.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not sure I'm parsing your thoughts correctly, but is anyone actually surprised by the international markets pushing back against "American" products like superhero movies? For someone who likes to talk about brand damage a lot, it should be pretty obvious where the problem lies here.

No I think it’s legit for Superman. He just needs to maybe let it breathe a little. He’s too vocal - as always.

Lots of headwinds for these movies right now. Some just bad choices by the corps/studios…some beyond their control

 

[Tha Realest]

Also, TP's numbers are the adjusted prod budgets, which makes Gunn's movie the 2nd cheapest* Superman movie ever made.

* This is a little fuzzy since Superman 78 & Superman II was a dual production for the most part, so attributing cost to one or the other is a little silly.

There is an interesting history there. Not sure how much they filmed (or intended to film) for both The Movie and II. Partially through II Donner left the production and then so did Hackman - it’s why there are really weird stretches where he’s not shown and the voiceover is clearly not him (especially during his travels to the Fortress of Solitude). It ended up being great in the end, but I wonder how much of II was reused footage from The Movie/I because that is how they always intended, or because they wanted to reutilize shot footage.

 

[Tha Realest]

I don't know how much the overseas problems come from a general change in sentiment or those markets reasserting their protectionism (especially with foreign films). Without wading into these issues, the US has had varying degrees of popularity overseas and abroad in recent years, particularly acutely after 9/11.

All that said, the China conundrum is an interesting one. I do wonder how much of the drop there is due to governmental restrictions on foreign films.

Again, sidestepping all of that - if there is a thumb on the scale in China against US based productions, that doesn’t bode well for the Chinese yield for Zootopia 2 or Avatar 3.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't know how much the overseas problems come from a general change in sentiment or those markets reasserting their protectionism (especially with foreign films). Without wading into these issues, the US has had varying degrees of popularity overseas and abroad in recent years, particularly acutely after 9/11.

All that said, the China conundrum is an interesting one. I do wonder how much of the drop there is due to governmental restrictions on foreign films.

Again, sidestepping all of that - if there is a thumb on the scale in China against US based productions, that doesn’t bode well for the Chinese yield for Zootopia 2 or Avatar 3.

Its an interesting thought experiment, what would Avatar 2 and Zootopia have done without China. Both did approximately $200M+ in China, $240M and $220M respectively.

Zootopia did $1.03B with China, and without would have been $805M. So still decent overall.

Avatar 2 did $2.32B with China, and without would have been $2.07B. So still a $2B+ movie.

While a big haul for both in that region, both would have still be fine without the Middle Kingdom. So I think both will be fine this time around too no matter what happens in that region.

 

[coffeefan]

That’s a can of worms…because they are not being very “forthcoming” with the quoted budgets and cost overruns now

It shows the industry has changed. It's not the 1970s anymore, as many have pointed out here before.

 

[brideck]

I don't know how much the overseas problems come from a general change in sentiment or those markets reasserting their protectionism (especially with foreign films). Without wading into these issues, the US has had varying degrees of popularity overseas and abroad in recent years, particularly acutely after 9/11.

For sure, I was not intending to get particularly specific, and as you point out China is the single biggest overseas market. I haven't looked to see if there's been a general softening in, say, western Europe or Latin America vis a vis this type of movie as well. And then the question of how much of that to attribute to market trends vs fatigue vs geopolitics seems tough to do from my couch.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It shows the industry has changed. It's not the 1970s anymore, as many have pointed out here before.

Of course it has

Things have changed dramatically

But don’t let anyone tell
You there’s “no failure” if things bomb because they are unable to untangle themselves from
Their love for particular companies or characters.

…here Endeth that lesson

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For sure, I was not intending to get particularly specific, and as you point out China is the single biggest overseas market. I haven't looked to see if there's been a general softening in, say, western Europe or Latin America vis a vis this type of movie as well. And then the question of how much of that to attribute to market trends vs fatigue vs geopolitics seems tough to do from my couch.

As we see almost daily…depending on China to generate “the big money” for American companies is foolish…especially entertainment ones

But there appears to be a general “softening” of demand everywhere for some genres?

Imagine it’s mostly due to tech changes and fatigue…and of course money which is drying up

 

[Disney Irish]

Of course it has

Things have changed dramatically

But don’t let anyone tell
You there’s “no failure” if things bomb because they are unable to untangle themselves from
Their love for particular companies or characters.

…here Endeth that lesson

And don't let anyone tell you the box office still has the same meaning in 2025 as it did in 1978.

 

[coffeefan]

Massive fumble by Sony to sell their entire IP to Netflix. This is why you don't have old world thinking in 2025.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Massive fumble by Sony to sell their entire IP to Netflix. This is why you don't have old world thinking in 2025.

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