Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

The biggest issue with the Federal Government is that when congress created these agencies, they gave them the power to make whatever rules they wanted to without needing congressional approval for anything.

There are rules as to what rules can be made. Usually there are requirements for scientific/data findings from experts and a period of announcing proposed rules for public comment and review.

Many an agency regulation has been struck down by a court for failing to follow these rules, or for not following where the science or data leads, or going beyond their Congressional mandate.

We've seen the last-minute regulations of an administration being quickly dismantled because they didn't follow the rules of creating those new regulations. However, the regulations that did follow the rules takes months and months for the next administration to reverse (if it wants to) because the reversal has to go through the lengthy review process (and then withstand legal challenges).

E.g., these new OSHA rules can't go into effect immediately, unless there is a provision for emergency rules. And then such rules can be challenged for not being an emergency, or for not following the science, or for infringing on other Constitutional or Legislative rights and laws. And even with an emergency issuance, it will need to be followed up with the regular procedures or lose it's enforcement power.

The alternative is to have Congress micromanage all these administrative regulations, and I think we all know how well they are up to that task. That being said, Congress can, if it wanted and had the will and the votes, create a new and specific regulation (or strike one down) that the appropriate agencies would have to follow.

 

[Heelz2315]

Back in late July, I did an analysis of the FL outbreak spike and predicted that the peak of the seven day rolling average would likely be on or about 8/21 and that it would subside to the pre-spike levels around 9/27, just in time for the 50th. The peak wasn't captured in the case data because the positivity got so high during the plateau but the hospitalization graph shows the likely real shape of the case curve. I drew in red what it probably really looked like. If you take the endpoints of the plateau and find the middle you get 8/21.

The rate of decline slowed a bit this week likely due to some combination of labor day and school starting a few weeks ago. If the rate of decline doesn't increase again then it could be 4-6 weeks from now to get back down to that 1500 case per day level and sustained under 5% positivity. If the rate of decline increases again it will probably the first week of October.

My unsophisticated model didn't have the ability to predict the effect of labor day changing the variables up.

View attachment 587311

Forgive me for asking but is the 1500 per case/day around the late May/early June timeline?

 

[GoofGoof]

The biggest issue with the Federal Government is that when congress created these agencies, they gave them the power to make whatever rules they wanted to without needing congressional approval for anything. I know that for a lot of things, the particular rules are outside of the area of expertise for congress. However, they should have put something in when they created all of these agencies that any new or changed regulation must get approved by at least a congressional committee.

OSHA is probably somewhat limited in that they will have to justify things in court and show they are necessary for workplace safety. The constitution needs so much interpretation because it was written somewhat vaguely. The vast majority of things done by the Federal Government are broad interpretations of providing for the "general welfare."

I think this is classic American politics today. One side is in power the other side wants to stop them from doing anything. Requiring every federal agency to request Congressional approval for any action they take would essentially lock down the Federal government into total gridlock and nothing would get done at all. OSHA has had the same authority for 50+ years now and they have implemented rules that were challenged in court in the past. Let the process play out.

 

[LittleBuford]

I don't think it is that "good" of a survival rate. From info I have for a few hospitals it seems like maybe 30% survive and there doesn't seem to be a difference if the person was vaccinated once they end up on a ventilator.

It may be their only chance but it isn't a good chance. My point was that you don't want to end up on a ventilator if you have COVID.

The survival rate is higher than that. Of course no-one “wants” to end up on a ventilator, but it’s the only chance of survival some people get. There’s no need to make is sound scarier or more serious than it already is.

Case Fatality Rates for Patients with COVID-19 Requiring Invasive Mechanical Ventilation. A Meta-analysis

Rationale: Initial reports of case fatality rates (CFRs) among adults with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) are highly variable.Objectives: To examine the CFR of patients with COVID-19 receiving IMV.Methods: ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[DisneyCane]

The survival rate is higher than that. Of course no-one “wants” to end up on a ventilator, but it’s the only chance of survival some people get. There’s no need to make is sound scarier or more serious than it already is.

Case Fatality Rates for Patients with COVID-19 Requiring Invasive Mechanical Ventilation. A Meta-analysis

Rationale: Initial reports of case fatality rates (CFRs) among adults with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) are highly variable.Objectives: To examine the CFR of patients with COVID-19 receiving IMV.Methods: ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

It's the one thing that we should make sound as scary as possible because getting vaccinated reduces your chance of ending up on a ventilator by a lot. Scaring people will hopefully equal more getting vaccinated.

 

[maui2k7]

It's the one thing that we should make sound as scary as possible because getting vaccinated reduces your chance of ending up on a ventilator by a lot. Scaring people will hopefully equal more getting vaccinated.

More than likely, those that are/were scared of COVID and have already been vaccinated. At this point, it is people who put it off for some reason or are against getting a vaccine and convincing them will be difficult. As cases start to go down (possibly leveling off or are trending down already), hold outs will start to say, why should I bother to get a vaccine when it's "going away".

 

[DisneyCane]

Forgive me for asking but is the 1500 per case/day around the late May/early June timeline?

Mid to late June is when it got that low and seemed like it would stay there. Then it started rising.

 

[DisneyCane]

So if we hold to the UK curve, current infection rate will hold at an elevated rate for some time. Not the bell curve that was hoped for.

The UK also removed mitigations during the spike so that added variables. FL didn't have any before it started and didn't make any changes during. Therefore it should follow the natural tendency of the virus like India.

 

[GoofGoof]

More than likely, those that are/were scared of COVID and have already been vaccinated. At this point, it is people who put it off for some reason or are against getting a vaccine and convincing them will be difficult. As cases start to go down (possibly leveling off or are trending down already), hold outs will start to say, why should I bother to get a vaccine when it's "going away".

Over 100,000 Americans have died from Covid since vaccines became available to everyone. Almost all of those deaths were preventable with a simple, convenient and free vaccine. Many people said the same things last Spring as cases dropped. Some of them are not around anymore . This is why employer mandates combined with vaccine passports for things like sporting events, bars/clubs, theme parks, air travel and other large group activities are needed more than ever. If people won’t freely take a vaccine that could save their lives then we as a society have an obligation to nudge them into doing it or at least protect them in other ways like limiting their public exposure to the virus. It’s in the best interest of the unvaccinated and in the best interest of society as a whole.

 

[correcaminos]

It's the one thing that we should make sound as scary as possible because getting vaccinated reduces your chance of ending up on a ventilator by a lot. Scaring people will hopefully equal more getting vaccinated.

To me, giving facts is better than scaring. That goes both ways too. We have so many scaring people out of vaccines. If people weren't afraid to catch covid before, scaring them now won't help anyway. Science and facts have gotten me further with others. JMO of course, but I understand your intent.

 

[Lilofan]

Over 100,000 Americans have died from Covid since vaccines became available to everyone. Almost all of those deaths were preventable with a simple, convenient and free vaccine. Many people said the same things last Spring as cases dropped. Some of them are not around anymore . This is why employer mandates combined with vaccine passports for things like sporting events, bars/clubs, theme parks, air travel and other large group activities are needed more than ever. If people won’t freely take a vaccine that could save their lives then we as a society have an obligation to nudge them into doing it or at least protect them in other ways like limiting their public exposure to the virus. It’s in the best interest of the unvaccinated and in the best interest of society as a whole.

Who would pass up free money or a free donut everyday for 2021 ( Krispy Kreme glazed ) ? WDW, Publix and Target are giving bonuses to staff equal to 4 hours of pay for ones who get vaccinated by Sept 30.

 

[mmascari]

Scaring people will hopefully equal more getting vaccinated.

It's not enough, being scared isn't the issue.

More than likely, those that are/were scared of COVID and have already been vaccinated. At this point, it is people who put it off for some reason or are against getting a vaccine and convincing them will be difficult.

There's definitely people who didn't get the vaccine that are scared. All those stories of people taking animal ivermectin, they're all clearly scared of COVID. Heading the feed store to pick up horse dewormer for yourself isn't something you do if you're not worried at all.

This is why employer mandates combined with vaccine passports for things like sporting events, bars/clubs, theme parks, air travel and other large group activities are needed more than ever. If people won’t freely take a vaccine that could save their lives then we as a society have an obligation to nudge them into doing it or at least protect them in other ways like limiting their public exposure to the virus. It’s in the best interest of the unvaccinated and in the best interest of society as a whole.

Exactly this. All those people need an "out". They need a way to rationalize getting a vaccine that they've spent months saying wasn't needed for whatever reason. A new reason that doesn't break and go counter to whatever that person's existing reason was.

We need new reasons, as many as possible, that don't allow for easy rejection. This way, people can internalize "I wasn't going to get the vaccine because EUA/Not Worried/Long Term/Whatever, but it's required if I want to do X and I really want to do X. See, I've got no choice, I'll just have to get vaccinated".

This way, we're not overturning and negating anyone's reason and internal logic. We're giving them a new reason that can coexist with the prior thought.

It doesn't matter if we agree with their prior reasons or not. We're not living in their head, none of us are Buzzy.

 

[GoofGoof]

Who would pass up free money or a free donut everyday for 2021 ( Krispy Kreme glazed ) ? WDW, Publix and Target are giving bonuses to staff equal to 4 hours of pay for ones who get vaccinated by Sept 30.

The 60M adults who haven’t gotten even one shot yet have already passed on the free donuts and in some cases free money too. I don’t think carrots are enough anymore.

 

[Nubs70]

To me, giving facts is better than scaring. That goes both ways too. We have so many scaring people out of vaccines. If people weren't afraid to catch covid before, scaring them now won't help anyway. Science and facts have gotten me further with others. JMO of course, but I understand your intent.

My wife talked a neighbor into getting the shot. The neighbor told my wife the only reason she got the shot was that my wife was the first person to talk to her about the shot like an adult.

 

[Nubs70]

It's not enough, being scared isn't the issue.

There's definitely people who didn't get the vaccine that are scared. All those stories of people taking animal ivermectin, they're all clearly scared of COVID. Heading the feed store to pick up horse dewormer for yourself isn't something you do if you're not worried at all.


Exactly this. All those people need an "out". They need a way to rationalize getting a vaccine that they've spent months saying wasn't needed for whatever reason. A new reason that doesn't break and go counter to whatever that person's existing reason was.

We need new reasons, as many as possible, that don't allow for easy rejection. This way, people can internalize "I wasn't going to get the vaccine because EUA/Not Worried/Long Term/Whatever, but it's required if I want to do X and I really want to do X. See, I've got no choice, I'll just have to get vaccinated".

This way, we're not overturning and negating anyone's reason and internal logic. We're giving them a new reason that can coexist with the prior thought.

It doesn't matter if we agree with their prior reasons or not. We're not living in their head, none of us are Buzzy.

However, those that had the bolded concerns have been labeled as anti vaxxers, right wing zealots, etc for months. Gonna be tough to change peoples minds.

 

[GimpYancIent]

The 60M adults who haven’t gotten even one shot yet have already passed on the free donuts and in some cases free money too. I don’t think carrots are enough anymore.

What? Passed on FREE donuts That's Un-American!

 

[Heppenheimer]

What? Passed on FREE donuts That's Un-American!

If Canada's numbers hit the plateau, they can pull out the big gun- free Tim Horton's.

I'm not sure we have an equivalent institution in the US that would have the same effect. Maybe a raffle for free Disney tickets? ("Yeah, right, that will happen!", scornfully laughs a certain chrome-domed CEO...).

 

[GoofGoof]

However, those that had the bolded concerns have been labeled as anti vaxxers, right wing zealots, etc for months. Gonna be tough to change peoples minds.

I think that is the point. The effort to change people’s minds failed. It’s ok if someone opposes the vaccine for any number of reasons or isn’t worried about covid so doesn’t think it’s necessary as long as they still get the vaccine anyway because they don’t want their job or their lifestyle restricted. We don’t have to change people‘s minds we just need them to get vaccinated.

 

[mmascari]

However, those that had the bolded concerns have been labeled as anti vaxxers, right wing zealots, etc for months. Gonna be tough to change peoples minds.

Um, that was the point.

They are still all those things.

The person who didn't want the vaccine because it's experimental isn't going to suddenly be convinced that it's not experimental.
The person who is anti vax isn't going to suddenly decided vaccines are the answer.
The person who listens to all the right wing talk saying not to get vaccinated and that COVID isn't a big deal, even as many of those very people catch and die of COVID isn't going to suddenly decide that COVID is dangerous or even if dangerous that the vaccine is the answer.

We're past the point of trying to change those minds. It's simply not possible anymore, they've been in whatever reason for to long now. The only way to change the mind of someone who has bought into all the right wing talking points, believed the points about not taking the vaccine, wasn't convinced as the talking head that told them all the information died is to overturn the last year in their head. To have them change perspective and acknowledge that they were wrong for the last year. It's not going to happen. The mental hurdle is to large.

Hence, we need new reasons that aren't tied to those. Even if they only give an appearance of not being related. Just needs to be enough so someone can have both thoughts in their head at the same time and does NOT need to admit they were wrong. They can be BOTH right in whatever prior idea AND get vaccinated at the same time.

That's why restrictions tied to vaccination are the only answer left. The only thought that needs to be overcome is that the vaccine isn't going to kill someone. If they cannot get past that, there's no hope. Since who would do something they think will kill them. All the other stuff, they can simply be angry that they're being "forced" to take the vaccine. Want to go out to dinner, get vaccinated. Want to go to a movie theater, get vaccinated. Want to get on a plane, get vaccinated. Want to travel internationally, get vaccinated. Someone can justify that they want to do do those things and since those things required vaccination, they're getting the vaccine. It's not because the prior thought was wrong. The vaccine can still be "stupid, not required, COVID not a big deal" but they'll get it anyway because they want to do X and doing it means they need a vaccine.

For the real anti government everything types, getting a drivers license or any ID is probably stupid too. But they do it anyway, because the hassle of not having one is to large. That's the only answer left.

 

[mmascari]

Maybe a raffle for free Disney tickets? ("Yeah, right, that will happen!", scornfully laughs a certain chrome-domed CEO...).

I don't think a raffle would do it anymore. Needs to be something more guaranteed and immediate. We don't do well with delayed gratification.

If Disney wanted, they could probably guarantee that everyone at Hollywood Studios was vaccinated. Drop the Rise of the Resistance virtual queue and guarantee everyone who is vaccinated gets to ride. If they said only vaccinated people could get in the queue but were not guaranteed a ride, I don't think that would be enough.