Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Just what we need….thousands of unvaccinated, unmasked people taking to the streets together to protest. Lets hope that doesn’t happen. It’s only NYC so maybe those people can just go to a bar or restaurant somewhere else. It’s not like it’s the whole state or country. I don’t know. I feel like maybe people will show up to protest who aren’t even directly impacted.

There are people who spend their lives in a corner of NYC, never leaving a radius of a few blocks.

But NYC doesn't have a large "anti-vax" contingent except for a couple corners. The ultra-orthodox corners of Brooklyn and Queens are anti-vax, but they don't do mainstream protests. Biggest resistance will be Staten Island, which has more Trump-type voters. Then you have heavily minority Bronx, where you have distrust of vaccines and government, but they aren't politically anti-vax.
In context -- Manhattan -- 81% of adults have had at least one dose.
Staten Island -- only 68% with at least one dose.
Bronx -- Only 65% with at least one dose.

It will be interesting to see the extent to which this expands beyond New York City:
- I'd expect other liberal cities to put in similar mandates
- At the next level, you'll definitely have businesses voluntarily impose such mandates. Whether it's just a few small isolated businesses or we start to see it affect huge chains, we have to wait and see.
- Will we see it on a statewide level? Maybe in the bluest of states.
-Federal level and international level? Limited authority there. But it wouldn't be shocking to see a vaccine mandate to airlines, interstate trains, and international travel. The cruise industry has already worked around the DeSantis anti-passport mandate -- Technically vaccination not required, but you'll have to pay more $$$ if you're unvaccinated.

 

[Andrew C]

"Mayor Bill de Blasio plans to announce Tuesday morning that New York City will require proof of vaccination for people participating in indoor activities, including at restaurants, gyms and performances, his latest attempt to spur more vaccinations, according to a city official.

The policy is similar to mandates issued in France and Italy last month and is believed to be the first of its kind in the United States.

The program will start later this month, and after a transition period enforcement will begin in mid-September, when schools are expected to reopen and more workers could return to offices in Manhattan."

"As part of the new program, New York City will create a health pass called the “Key to NYC Pass” to provide proof of vaccination required for workers and customers at indoor dining, gyms, entertainment and performances."

N.Y.C. will require workers and customers show proof of at least one dose for indoor dining and other activities.

“If you want to participate in our society fully, you’ve got to get vaccinated,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said. “It’s time.”

www.nytimes.com

So are under 12 exempt then? And what about adults who are unable to get the vaccine due to medical reasons? It may be a small minority of people but they exist...

 

[havoc315]

I'm seeing many people speculate that the current surge will last 45-50 days to peak, basing that estimate on India and the UK.

But a word of warning -- many many factors go into these surges. Therefore, you can't just compare one region and assume other regions will see the same curves.
Of note, the rise in Israel started earlier than the UK. Israel has 1 of the most successful vaccine drives. They exclusively used the more effective Pfizer vaccine.
They are now 45-50 days into their surge, and there is no sign of them reaching a peak yet.

Of course, the good and bad associated news: Deaths in Israel have remained quite low. BUT, they are increasing. Just not increasing nearly as badly as past surges.

 

[Figgy1]

Started sneezing a lot on Sunday evening, continued yesterday, and woke up with a mild sore throat today. Some minor congestion. Is sneezing even a symptom?

In some ways it seems more reassuring to just go get a test, even though it feels like a very minor cold. Hmm.

I hope it's nothing

 

[Parker in NYC]

Remember how NY was attacked when COVID first landed? I’ll never forget it as long as I live.

Here we go again.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Just what we need….thousands of unvaccinated, unmasked people taking to the streets together to protest. Lets hope that doesn’t happen. It’s only NYC so maybe those people can just go to a bar or restaurant somewhere else. It’s not like it’s the whole state or country. I don’t know. I feel like maybe people will show up to protest who aren’t even directly impacted.

NYC? What? Its France! Not trend setters nor leaders.

 

[Bartattack]

I don't think it's anything in particular the UK did so much as whatever natural trend the virus is doing. How and why delta spikes and falls so quickly I'd really like to know. Does it just hit a wall of folks it can infect, or does it just burn itself out quick.

It might have to do with a trade-off of the virus. A very transmissable virus can sometimes indeed burn itself out... (especially if you already have al large percentage of vaccinated people).
Same for a virus that tries to evade immunity... that makes the virus less infectious because it has to change it's spike protein to evade our antibodies... but it uses this spike protein to bind to our cells. So if it changes this protein, it can't bind as well to the cells anymore.

 

[havoc315]

So are under 12 exempt then? And what about adults who are unable to get the vaccine due to medical reasons? It may be a small minority of people but they exist...

It’s a very small minority. Most people within that minority really aren’t healthy enough to be doing a whole lot of public activities. If you’re too sick to get a vaccine, then you’re probably too sick to be eating indoors at a restaurant without a mask during a pandemic.

But there likely in a negative PCR testing frame work for exceptions.

 

[LaughingGravy]

I was at a Lake county (west of Orange / Orlando) testing site this morning that was busy but still no-wait. The tech giving tests screened me and said they were only doing PCR testing in vaccinated individuals if showing symptoms. My wife was with me and was denied because she was non-symptomatic and vaccinated, even though she was with me and I was symptomatic and vaccinated and already had a positive rapid test. (Need PCR confirmation for work documentation requirements). Apparently if you’re vaccinated, exposure isn’t a valid flag for testing?

She claimed they were following CDC guidelines in doing that. I found it odd that we’re denying testing in any circumstances at all at the moment. I thought by this point you wouldn’t need much of a reason, vaccinated or not.

Anyway if anyone from Orlando wants to drive out to Lake, all of the lake county sites were still mostly no-wait. (Only limited hours 8-noon though).

The lack of data collection of a a vaccinated person with no symptoms since they were there with you anyway and weren't swamped doesn't make sense unless they knew they were going to be short on tests.

 

[Animal_Kingdom_09]

There is something causing Florida to outpace every state in the Union, that’s the only thing I can think of. We are missing something, and it’s not rural city breakdown, Texas is not having nearly as many issues as FL.

The best guess that I have seen is that covid is primarily spread by indoor transmission. Florida heads indoors a little earlier than most states, even the ones in the deep south, because of the heat, humidity, and thunderstorms. If it follows the pattern of previous spikes, we will see our peak sometime in August and start heading down from there. At the same time, it will spread north and west from Florida as people in those states also head indoors where there is A/C.

 

[DonniePeverley]

General question - you're vaccinated, you catch it, recover, and are then reexposed to it again - can this effect your health with long term repeat exposure?

 

[Touchdown]

General question - you're vaccinated, you catch it, recover, and are then reexposed to it again - can this effect your health with long term repeat exposure?

Let me check my crystal ball…

You’re asking a question no one knows the answer to now. Better get in you DeLorian and hit 88mph, then you can report back to us.

 

[VelocityRaptor]

What really annoys me about Vaccine Passports is that everyone and their mother is creating their own. NY state has its own, NYC is developing its own. The vaccine card is too big to fit into a mens wallet lol. I’m not sure what the exact answer is but I’m hoping we get to a point in the future where a vaccine passport is no longer required.

 

[Lilofan]

Let me check my crystal ball…

You’re asking a question no one knows the answer to now. Better get in you DeLorian and hit 88mph, then you can report back to us.

A Delorian with the reliability of a Yugo? One would be lucky if the car even starts up.

 

[Touchdown]

A Delorian with the reliability of a Yugo? One would be lucky if the car even starts up.

The Mr Fusion upgrade made it much more reliable.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

"Mayor Bill de Blasio plans to announce Tuesday morning that New York City will require proof of vaccination for people participating in indoor activities, including at restaurants, gyms and performances, his latest attempt to spur more vaccinations, according to a city official.

The policy is similar to mandates issued in France and Italy last month and is believed to be the first of its kind in the United States.

The program will start later this month, and after a transition period enforcement will begin in mid-September, when schools are expected to reopen and more workers could return to offices in Manhattan."

"As part of the new program, New York City will create a health pass called the “Key to NYC Pass” to provide proof of vaccination required for workers and customers at indoor dining, gyms, entertainment and performances."

N.Y.C. will require workers and customers show proof of at least one dose for indoor dining and other activities.

“If you want to participate in our society fully, you’ve got to get vaccinated,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said. “It’s time.”

www.nytimes.com

LOVE IT

 

[oceanbreeze77]

 

[DisneyCane]

I'm seeing many people speculate that the current surge will last 45-50 days to peak, basing that estimate on India and the UK.

But a word of warning -- many many factors go into these surges. Therefore, you can't just compare one region and assume other regions will see the same curves.
Of note, the rise in Israel started earlier than the UK. Israel has 1 of the most successful vaccine drives. They exclusively used the more effective Pfizer vaccine.
They are now 45-50 days into their surge, and there is no sign of them reaching a peak yet.

Of course, the good and bad associated news: Deaths in Israel have remained quite low. BUT, they are increasing. Just not increasing nearly as badly as past surges.

I would think that lower vaccination and less mitigation would reduce the time to peak (but peak higher) if anything.

Regardless, my model based on the UK says the peak happens around day 64 of a Delta spike. We'll see if I'm right for Florida around August 21st.

 

[DCBaker]

Within that number, 2,400 of those patients are in ICU beds.

Florida sets COVID record with 11,515 people hospitalized

FORT LAUDERDALE — The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida rose to an all-time high of 11,515 patients in one day, according to data the U.S. Department of Health and Human S…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[disneygeek90]

Interesting how there's been no FL data since the 20k+ announced on Saturday. I guess we have zero cases, look at that decline!