According to the CDC the R0 of delta is 7-9, up from 2-3 for other varients. That means on average infected individuals infect 7-9 people. That’s why the curves are so pronounced. Vaccinated people have a 10 fold decrease in severe cases but only a 4-6 fold decrease in active disease and those people have the same R0. That’s why the recommendations are the way they are. Glad I don’t have any trips to Florida soon, I would cancel based on that. The only reason I’m not canceling October is that the wave should be over. Yikes, stay safe out there folks.
The Delta coronavirus variant surging across the US appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal CDC document.
www.cnn.com
Maybe the variant circulating in FL is different than the one they are talking about (serious possibility). According to Orange County over a recent 5 day period:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New info on breakthrough cases in Orange County:<br><br>7/26: 1213 cases, 98.3% unvaxxed (21 breakthrough)<br>7/25: 602 cases, 95.34% unvaxxed (28 breakthrough)<br>7/24: 960 cases, 100% unvaxxed<br>7/23: 1049 cases, 99% unvaxxed (11 breakthrough)<br>7/22: 943 cases, 99.2% unvaxxed (8 breakthrough)</p>— Lauren Seabrook (@LSeabrookWFTV) <a href="
">July 29, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Based on my math that’s 68 breakthrough infections out of 4,767 total or 1.4% of total cases. We know Orange County is about 50/50 on vaccinations so that doesn’t add up to only 4-6 fold increase in protection. Seems like in the real world the vaccine is still protecting much better or at least in Orange County FL it is. I’m sure someone will dismiss that as lack of testing or bad data or something. Believe what you want.
Who knows what is right, but looking at headlines and news coverage this “leaked report” could be the most damaging blow to the vaccination effort since the JnJ blood clots. People who were hesitant are going to see this as “the vaccines don’t work”. I‘m talking about the real hesitant people who were actually on the fence about going in not the anti-vaxx and politically motivated. Really a terrible situation.
Before everyone jumps all over me for saying this, no I’m not saying they should have held back info or lied. A study is a study, but it should be presented in the proper context. The sensationalized news story is the CDC withheld this report and it leaked out. Bad optics there. The CDC director and other officials said the occurrence is a rare event. What happened in the Cape Cod event is not the rule it’s the exception. We are not seeing 75% of infections in vaccinated people. The media should be presenting the story this way. Instead the picture that’s painted leads people to believe the vaccines don’t work very well anymore to prevent infection or spread. Simply not true.
Last word on this. If this narrative is true and if this variant renders the vaccines much less effective and if vaccinated people are spreading Covid regularly then this wave won’t end any time soon under our current lifestyles. Returning to indoor masks isn’t going to move the needle. We should probably consider a return to stay at home orders and capacity restrictions and full masks all the time along with travel quarantines and recommendations to avoid elderly family and friends and anyone high risk. We are essentially back to March 2020 except this is apparently the most contagious disease known to man now. The really sobering reality is a 3rd booster shot is also useless against it. Another shot of the same vaccine isn’t going to help. We will need a whole new vaccine developed (if one can even be created) and that will take a minimum of 6 months to design, produce and test. Really grim stuff. For me I’ll continue to hope the vaccines still work and these situations are just rare occurrences and not the norm and hopefully we follow the same path as the UK and India where the wave comes and goes. The alternative is too difficult to consider. It goes well beyond the mask fight.