Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
ImperfectPixie said:
Why? It means the vaccines are amazingly effective.
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Exactly. It drives me crazy that these numbers could be so much lower if more people got the shot. It is just unnecessary. I always expected a summer bump, but I also expected vaccination rates to be at a better place.

Hopefully this burns through Florida and other places quickly like it has seemed to do in other countries.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
ImperfectPixie said:
Why? It means the vaccines are amazingly effective.
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Andrew C said:
Exactly. It drives me crazy that these numbers could be so much lower if more people got the shot. It is just unnecessary. I always expected a summer bump, but I also expected vaccination rates to be at a better place.

Hopefully this burns through Florida and other cases quickly like it has seemed to do in other countries.
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It drives me crazy because it shows that there is no reason for fully vaccinated people to have to do anything to participate in mitigation because the people who didn't get vaccinated could have protected themselves almost completely as evidenced by the numbers.
 
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DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Lilofan said:
Wear your mask indoors in crowded settings can help in the matter. If you refuse to wear a mask, that's your choice.
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I don't wear mask anymore. I'm fine with crowded settings. So I don't get COVID-19 anymore when I visiting NYC this fall maybe.
 
Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
DisneyCane said:
It drives me crazy because it shows that there is no reason for fully vaccinated people to have to do anything to participate in mitigation because the people who didn't get vaccinated could have protected themselves almost completely as evidenced by the numbers.
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I don't agree with the new recommendation, mostly because I don't think adding masks alone based on how the virus has already spread will work, but I get why they did it. Places are not able to differentiate between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, and the unvaccinated have dropped the ball. So we all must suffer (well, I won't where I live necessarily because there ain't no way any place around here will require it, hah).
 
Flugell

Flugell

Well-Known Member
May I respectfully suggest this may be the way to go!🤪 Don’t go overboard on the second instruction obviously!
 

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hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Let me just put this out there:

In the history of vaccine science, every effective vaccine that has ever been created has reduced or eliminated symptoms in a very high percentage of people who are invaded by the virus being vaccinated against AND has significantly reduced transmission of the virus from people who are vaccinated. For every past virus where a vaccine was created and a large percentage of the population (normally school aged and younger children) was vaccinated, the latter characteristic essentially eradicated the viruses from the face of the earth.

However, for this specific variant of SARS-CoV-2, which is still similar enough to the original to be called a "variant" and not a "strain," the vaccines still reduce or eliminate symptoms at nearly the same effectiveness as they did for other strains but have stopped preventing transmission from vaccinated people?

With the change in guidance, what the CDC is essentially saying is that, for the purpose of stopping the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the vaccines may as well not exist. Instead of saying I'm vaccinated I should be saying that I have taken a long lasting prophylactic against symptoms caused by SARS-CoV-2.

If this, in fact, the case, those who believe mitigation should be based on case numbers and community transmission are in favor of perpetual mitigation because there will always be cases and high community transmission.
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I think you have to look at the differences between when people reach high viral loads. We’re learning with Delta, replication happens before the immune system has a chance to really do anything. The first 24 hours and you’re already screwed.

With other stuff you are exposed, but the delay between high viral loads is days. Usually you develop symptoms THEN get super infectious. Your immune system has the time to kick in following exposure and so if you are vaccinated, it never gets high enough to be a problem. Think of measles, you start feeling symptoms after 7 days, first flu like then the rash. You become infectious 4 days before the rash. That implies your vaccinated body has several days to ramp things down before you could ever be infectious.

I’m guessing the window of time vaccinated people contribute to transmission is small. Hours not days, unlike unvaccinated people. But it is happening very shortly after vaccinated people are exposed to and receive an infectious dose, and none of us can know when that window opens. Immune system kicks in, window closes. Things proceed as normally expected. We’ll have to see if vaccinated people have a sharp drop off in viral loads after the immune system kicks in.

Crude shorthand... “order of operations” matter. And with this, things are out of order compared to other viruses.
 
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lisa12000

Well-Known Member
James J said:
Just to post about the UK for a second as I know there is interest - after cases were falling they are now steadily creeping back up.

On July 27th we were at 23,511 new cases, on the 28th it was 27,734 and today it's 31,117. The figures are starting to reflect mitigations and social distancing measures being dropped.

We also saw the highest number of daily deaths since March on the 27th, which was 131. This has come down slightly to 91 and 85 over the last two days.

Hospitalisations are up 21% over the last 7 days, although are still relatively low compared to the last peak.
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No you cannot say cases are going back up! If you are from the uk you know full well that case rates per day are an artefact of testing rates and are low from sat - Tuesday and then steadily rise from weds to Friday - last week was an anomoly not the norm.

you can only look at case rates on the same day last week Abd also specimen rather than reporting date. Last week there were 39,000 approx cases reported on the Thursday and this week 31,000 a drop off 20%. Yes a lower drop than previous days but did we really expect 40% drops per day of the week? We would get to 0 before long! Also if you look at specimen rates they were very obviously still going down which to be Frank I didn’t think would happen! The only thing is if we hadn’t opened up we would have had bigger drops but do we really want that?



As for hospitalisations - today was the very first day that the number reported in hospital in the uk had gone down for over a month! Admissions etc are plateauing as well and as we know deaths lag cases by 2/3 weeks so we would still expect them to be going up right now and hopefully begin to drop off from next week

yea cases in real terms (not reporting terms) may go back up due to opening but we have given us some real breathing space now with a massive drop of cases of (as today) 37% from this time last week

oh and PCR positivity rates are going down as well - below 10% today and triage and zoe app numbers going down as well…
 
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