Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

This isn’t random Twitter dude. He has been a Covid leader from the start and was a senior advisor to Biden on covid.

While not a scientist really himself, he has been on the forefront of the science. He is simply providing an update on where the science stands: there is a waning effect of the vaccine after 6 months, but the degree to which it wanes and the need for boosters is still under investigation. It is likely that at least the elderly and those immuno compromised will need boosters.

Twitter can be a major source of misinformation — but it all depends who you read. It’s about listening to the right people.

The problem with the main stream media is that they are often days/weeks behind the science, and often the journalists don’t fully understand what they are reporting upon. Creating late superficial stories. (Not fake news — they aren’t lying. Just they sometimes lack depth and context).

When he talks about the first 44k+ that are being followed and the data from that can be used, it is true as long as people do not take the results in the aggregate.

That is, they do not say how many in the 44k* had “X” happen to them.

The Pfizer 44k is composed of ;
15k who were vaccinated between Aug 2020 and Oct 2020.

15k vaccinated by March 2021.(Placebo group)

15k who were added later ( some vaccinated after Sept, some vaccinated in March).

They can use the first 15k as a group who got vaccinated a long time ago. But the placebo arm has to be looked at as vaccinated in March ( unless s opted out)

Also I do not know how often Pfizer shares the data outside the company.

So , for example, my case of moderate covid ( likely delta, Pfizer may know) I got starting June 15th as part of the original 15k vaccinated may not be in any data they have published. I expect they will have to publish it before full authorization is granted.

 

[correcaminos]

When he talks about the first 44k+ that are being followed and the data from that can be used, it is true as long as people do not take the results in the aggregate.

That is, they do not say how many in the 44k* had “X” happen to them.

The Pfizer 44k is composed of ;
15k who were vaccinated between Aug 2020 and Oct 2020.

15k vaccinated March 2021.(Placebo group)

15k who were added later ( some vaccinated after Sept, dome vaccinated in March).

They can use the first 15k as a group who got vaccinated a long time ago. But the placebo arm has to be looked at as vaccinated in March ( unless s opted out)

Also I do not know how often Pfizer shares the data outside the company.

So , for example, my case of moderate covid ( likely delta, Pfizer may know) I got starting June 15th as part of the original 15k vaccinated may not be in any data they have published. I expect they will have to publish it before full authorization is granted.

the 15k could be as early as December if a medical person. Here they were vaccinating in Jan/Feb if placebo too.

We also have my subdivision who is now a part of the 10k who are being studied for boosters specifically.

 

[Disney Experience]

the 15k could be as early as December if a medical person. Here they were vaccinating in Jan/Feb if placebo too.

We also have my subdivision who is now a part of the 10k who are being studied for boosters specifically.

You are right. The placebo group could be anytime from Jan through March. (Pfizer was unmasking as cohorts were able to get vaccinated outside of the trials, with a cutoff at end of March).

The original formula booster shot trial, if well balanced/ controlled, will provide good quantitive data that should be very clean.

Moderna and others have trials that ran concurrent and that data can be used too to watch effectiveness vs time.

 

[correcaminos]

You are right. The placebo group could be anytime from Jan through March. (Pfizer was unmasking as cohorts were able to get vaccinated outside of the trials, with a cutoff at end of March).

The original formula booster shot trial, if well balanced/ controlled, will provide good quantitive data that should be very clean.

Moderna and others have trials that ran concurrent and that data can be used too to watch effectiveness vs time.

Yep, I just happened to know a doctor in the Pfizer trial through a friend who was vaccinated in December. My local friend who was placebo here was vaccinated early Feb - like a day after he was unblinded which I thought was cool. Then again they had boosters ready to go when I went in the next day after being called to schedule. I'm sure they are well prepared at this point.

Hopefully, we'll get the data we need from the regular and booster trials put together. I have read many companies are running different trials to get the best data and best combination of shots for all to be as protected as possible.

 

[Disstevefan1]

why not? My 65+ parent is on vacation right now.... granted a non Disney one with one of my siblings, but they do travel ya know

Totally agree, I was just commenting about this particular democratic, 65+ folks from Alabama and Arkansas vacationing at WDW.

 

[Jrb1979]

He’s just making noise to make it look like he is trying to do something.

Instead of wasting time with this nonsense he should be out trying to get his constituents vaccinated.

Yeah give out free Florida passes to Disney and they will come running.

I have a question. I see constant comparisons to UK and Israel. How come no over ever brings up your neighbors to the north as a comparison?

 

[Heppenheimer]

Yeah give out free Florida passes to Disney and they will come running.

I have a question. I see constant comparisons to UK and Israel. How come no over ever brings up your neighbors to the north as a comparison?

One reason might be that Israel and the UK front-loaded their vaccination programs, so we have more long-term data trends from them.

Another reason... a lot of my fellow countrymen forget that you guys are up there.

 

[Trauma]

Yeah give out free Florida passes to Disney and they will come running.

I have a question. I see constant comparisons to UK and Israel. How come no over ever brings up your neighbors to the north as a comparison?

There is a country to the north ?

I thought that was Antarctica or something.

 

[Heppenheimer]

There is a country to the north ?

I thought that was Antarctica or something.

No, that's south. Santa lives to the north. He's the king of Canada, isn't he?

 

[DisneyFan32]

80% of 65+ nationally doesn‘t look too bad, but it’s alarming to look at the 65+ rate in the bottom few states. Alabama and Arkansas for example are below 70% of 65+ fully vaccinated and if you look at a map of cases they are at the epicenter of this outbreak. Hopefully high risk people there alter their behavior and take additional precautions while this surge happens.

Despite the debate back and forth on efficacy of the vaccine against mild infections there are no indications anywhere that the vaccines aren‘t highly effective at preventing death and/or hospitalization and we are seeing that play out in the numbers in the UK and here in the US. In select hotspots in the US hospitals are being stressed to some extent but nothing like what we saw in January. In areas with a high vaccination rate the Covid ward of hospitals is mostly empty. That’s great news and the power of these vaccines. That’s why the administration and public health officials are calling this wave a crisis or pandemic for the unvaccinated.

Fauci did say the CDC is considering the possibility for boosters especially for high risk people including the elderly. It’s an evolving situation and they are gathering all available data before making a formal recommendation. What people need to remember is that these vaccines are a miracle and they work exceptionally well and should the need arise for a 3rd shot we have the manufacturing and distribution set up to easily roll out a booster.

Fauci says a booster shot for COVID-19 'might likely happen' for people who are immunocompromised

"We're going in the wrong direction," Dr. Anthony Fauci said of the US's Delta-variant-fueled rising COVID-19 infection rate.

news.yahoo.com

So I might don't need another third shot aka booster shot by fall?

 

[correcaminos]

Yeah give out free Florida passes to Disney and they will come running.

I have a question. I see constant comparisons to UK and Israel. How come no over ever brings up your neighbors to the north as a comparison?

Probably due to the delay in vaccinations Canada had. The data is not as long term and the time between vaccines made it different. While more are vaccinated there now, it took a while to get a good number vaccinated. Or that's my reasoning at least.

 

[correcaminos]

So I might don't need another third shot aka booster shot by fall?

We are testing that right now. Young and healthy leaning towards no at the moment. We don't have an answer yet.

 

[Trauma]

No, that's south. Santa lives to the north. He's the king of Canada, isn't he?

I knew I would get one.

Someone just had to correct the mistake that is part of the joke.

I thought the king of Canada was Wayne Gretzky?

 

[SamusAranX]

I knew I would get one.

Someone just had to correct the mistake that is part of the joke.

I thought the king of Canada was Wayne Gretzky?

No he retired after winning the Kentucky Derby. It’s now a triumvirate of Beiber, Drake, and Shawn Mendez

 

[TTA94]

What do we think will happen at WDW if things do not get under control? If Disney chooses to do nothing it might not look good for them, yet if they do reinstate masks then that will likely result in some trip cancellations.

 

[lisa12000]

not sure what’s happening over here in uk - 24900 cases today literally down around 30% same time last week and huge per weel drops. Now I would say it’s due to schools and end of football except India saw the same. Delta seems to burn quick through the population and then decline as quickly

 

[GregIsNewAroundHere]

What do we think will happen at WDW if things do not get under control? If Disney chooses to do nothing it might not look good for them, yet if they do reinstate masks then that will likely result in some trip cancellations.

Ultimately, Disney is going to make a decision based on their capital reserves. If they feel they can endure the short term losses of either a mask mandate or a new park closure better than they can endure the long term effects of a public perception that the parks were enabling the spread of a deadly pandemic, they'll change their mask policy. If they feel their cash/credit reserves are not sufficient to weather that storm, they're going to continue to operate as usual with their fingers crossed and hope for the best. Of course, theres a third possibility, which is that the leadership responsible for these decisions are either inept, or ideologically incapable, of making a rational calculation here.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Thanks for the additional context. How are you navigating communion at the moment? (Forgive me if this sounds weird, but it’s quite an honour to be talking with an Episcopal priest!)

Bread only. Right now, we are mask optional (New Jersey) for the vaccinated, and most of the congregation is vaccinated. The rest are good at masking. Sanitize hands before receiving, receive in palm, sanitize after receiving. The priest is the only person who can handle the elements and we sanitize several times. Think of it as food-service guidelines! We are trying to figure out how to offer the chalice. Oddly, the epidemiologists and physicians on the diocesan re-opening task force are in favor of offering th chalice. It’s the clerics who are resistant!

 

[carolina_yankee]

Interesting article in STAT today talking comparing average of new cases with rate of acceleration - noting that we are in a period where acceleration is the highest of any wave, and that acceleration is highest where vaccinations are the lowest.

A new way to visualize the surge in Covid-19 cases in the U.S.

A new STAT analysis of Covid-19 case data reveals this new wave is already outpacing the spring and summer waves of 2020.

www.statnews.com

Logically consistent, but they have data and charts to back up the logic.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Indoor masks will return at WDW. Mark me.