Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

I would argue that because of the factors that lead to the disproportionate deaths in the black community, it is more important for black people to get vaccinated to offset them. I don't want to see anybody end up dying because they didn't get a safe and free vaccine.

In Florida blacks have only a slightly higher mortality per 100k than whites 167.7 vs. 165.4 likely due to the large population of elderly white people. I would imagine if it was broken down by age and race then the disproportionality would be more obvious.

I'm actually not saying we as a nation shouldn't help non-vaccinated marginalized people. Not even close. My point was in terms of numbers, non-vaccinated Blacks aren't the biggest population - again in terms of just flat out numbers and percent of the population - of not vaccinating. We also will have different issues to help overcome, which needs to be addressed in different ways. Same for all Latinos and such who are not vaccinating.

So please do not take my comment the way you did as that sure wasn't my point. This specific population of unvaccinated are a whole other type of hesitant than others who are truly anti-vax against covid only.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I have a horrible prediction by fall. This COVID-19 pandemic will get worse in US than last year, as the surges, spikes and waves will getting harder as Delta variants as other future variants will be hard to beat so bad even fall and winter comes, we are so screwed up as indoor masks or mask mandates will return for even LONGER for years because Delta variant is so hard to end it the pandemic because as the unvaccinated people as full vaccinated people will get infecting and die so years to come... This is the end of the world to come people, we are never gonna beat COVID-19 pandemic for years to come, even the restrictions will be longer as possible many many many years to come.....

 

[correcaminos]

The NY Times reported there were over 81,000 new cases in the US yesterday and over 10,000 in Florida. This is a major problem because we will soon be over 100,000 cases a day. The US is moving in the wrong direction as the same time vaccinations are under 300,000 a day. Who is to blame for this dramatic increase in cases and decrease in vaccinations? Minorities and the young. This is clearly a huge pandemic of the unvaccinated and while many want to blame this on politics it is not the case because the two biggest groups that aren't vaccinated are not in the group being blamed. What needs to be done now is get everyone vaccinated but that is up to us and for those who don't get vaccinated, it is their fault and deserve what happens to them. The taxpayers should not foot their bills caused by their stupidity.

Take the shot or take responsibility. Take the shot or get sick but in no way cause the rest of us our freedoms both financially and socially. We did the right thing and shouldn't be punished for the stupidity of others. Under no circumstances close the economy down again. Maybe, try one last thing and give one last stimulus check to everyone who was vaccinated and those who get fully vaccinated in the next 6 weeks.

Please stop using minorities for marginalized people. Thanks. I already posted also why they are being used by privileged people as a scapegoat as well above.

You are leaving out a massive number of people by thinking it's just marginalized and young.

 

[mmascari]

It has been explained again and again, that it isn't calculated like that. It is a comparison between the number of infections between an unvaccinated group and a vaccinated group.

If you have 1000 unvaccinated people and you find that 200 got infected, a 90% efficacy means that out of a similar group of 1000 vaccinated people you would expect 20 of them to get infected. Engaging in high risk behavior, or a more transmissible variant increases the incidents of infections. So 1000 unvaccinated people engaging in this scenario might lead to 500 infections. Then a 90% reduction would mean you would expect 50 infections in vaccinated people in a similar environment.

EDIT: And I'll add, that while I used infection in the example above, when we are talking about the COVID vaccines, we're usually talking efficacy versus severe outcomes. Versus avoiding infection entirely or symptomatic infection, we should expect it to be lower. How much lower we'll find out as these next waves blow through. The Israel study from today, is not promising. Singapore study had it 70% vs any infection, and 80-90% against symptomatic infection. The US should be revealing since it will be more of a baseline, since the US is essentially down to vaccines and not vaccines + other types of mitigation.

This is at a statistics level for the entire group. The question was about how at the individual event level how do the mechanics of infection play out. All the little individual events that lead to that overall group result.

I don’t agree with @DisneyCane on the mechanics, since I think that would lead to different group results. But I also don’t know the answer.

We know at the group level, the vaccinated person is less likely than the unvaccinated. But, in a one on one interaction, how do the mechanics work. An infected person in a room with someone. It’s not 100% infection even for an unvaccinated. My best guess is that this still shouldn’t be thought of as a single event. That the process involves a ton of smaller interactions, all with implications. That vaccination plays out along this chain of events. Which makes what we thought was a single event really a group of events with many possibilities not a single yes/no step.

 

[danlb_2000]

Good information, but I really wish people would stop writing articles on Twitter.

 

[KrzyKtty]

Good information, but I really wish people would stop writing articles on Twitter.

Yeah, seeing a string of twitter posts automatically makes it lose massive credibility for me. Just like if I saw something like this on FB. I automatically assume it is full of bananas; it is conditioning at this point.

 

[danlb_2000]

Just a guess on my part since the study I quoted said they didn’t look at severe illness or hospitalization but efficacy was a lot lower. Something doesn’t add up if the original post I quoted said 30% of hospitalizations in the UK were in fully vaccinated people but then a study is showing the vaccines are still 95% effective at preventing hospitalizations from delta variant. We are not seeing anywhere near 30% of hospitalizations coming from fully vaccinated people in the US.

I wonder if we are starting to see the impact of waning antibodies from the vaccine. Antibody levels will naturally go down over time which will make people more susceptible to infection, but the T-Cell protection will kick to prevent the infection from getting to serious.

 

[Heelz2315]

Does anyone else think every wave of this virus will get smaller and smaller?

Hear me out. With every wave it infects more and more unvaxxed people. Between them getting natural immunity and the few continuing to get vaccinated it’ll eventually run out of people to infect.

Maybe In a year, next summer, we don’t have waves any more but upticks in cases here and there.

Granted the vaccines hold and no variant comes along to pierce immunity, does that sound right to anyone else?

 

[KrzyKtty]

• 13976

Does anyone else think every wave of this virus will get smaller and smaller?

Hear me out. With every wave it infects more and more unvaxxed people. Between them getting natural immunity and the few continuing to get vaccinated it’ll eventually run out of people to infect.

Maybe In a year, next summer, we don’t have waves any more but upticks in cases here and there.

Granted the vaccines hold and no variant comes along to pierce immunity, does that sound right to anyone else?

I am sure much like other virus, it will always be around and mutate; however, it won't stay this bad forever, no. The Spanish Flu of 1918 took about 2 years to really run its course through the world; however, it too eventually lost steam. Everyone just has to be patient until then and do their best. But doom and gloom articles, end of the world sensationalism, and we are all going to die mentality won't help anyone. So some people just need to take a deep breath and settle down a bit.

 

[dreday3]

Does anyone else think every wave of this virus will get smaller and smaller?

Hear me out. With every wave it infects more and more unvaxxed people. Between them getting natural immunity and the few continuing to get vaccinated it’ll eventually run out of people to infect.

Maybe In a year, next summer, we don’t have waves any more but upticks in cases here and there.

Granted the vaccines hold and no variant comes along to pierce immunity, does that sound right to anyone else?

Yes.

 

[jlhwdw]

The UK had the highest case numbers in the world last week. That's horrific on all terms.

Case numbers are not hospitalization and death numbers.

If vaccination reduces effects of COVID to nothing more than a common cold or mild flu, the vaccines are working.

 

[Virtual Toad]

Editorial this morning worth reading:

At a critical moment for Florida, let’s take control of COVID this weekend and get vaccinated | Editorial

We were so close, Florida. So close to kicking COVID’s . Just one month ago Florida was averaging around 1,500 new cases per day. Remember how good we felt? Like we had this thing licked. …

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[techgeek]

Some person more creative than I could make a really entertaining war-themed cartoon to explain how vaccines and the immune system in general work. The analogies basically write themselves.

Disney even used to make these kinds of films. Back when they had a CEO who cared about more than merchandising opportunities...

Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/2425/

Complete with Bob-approved IP synergy.

 

[Jrb1979]

Case numbers are not hospitalization and death numbers.

If vaccination reduces effects of COVID to nothing more than a common cold or mild flu, the vaccines are working.

I disagree with that line of thinking. Your neighbors to the north cases have been dropping due to high vaccination rates.

I absolutely have no empathy for what is going on in the UK or the US. Settling for good enough is why they are in that situation.

 

[GoofGoof]

I hate to say this ... but you were wrong. You've learnt nothing from the pandemic, and warning signs from other countries. Delta was going to hit the USA hard. Under what scenario did you assume it would not hit the USA the way it's wrecking the UK ?

Perhaps you don’t understand the definition of indefinitely. A month ago you said we were on pace to be at 500,000 cases a day in 2-4 weeks. Who was wrong again? Every wave of this virus in every nation has gone up and then gone back down, mostly following a 3 month arc. No reason to assume this won’t be the same. It will not continue to go up indefinitely. Who ever said delta wouldn’t hit the US? You are creating a straw man argument there. Delta is here, it’s the dominant strain, and for most areas of the country it’s not much more than a blip, especially if you are vaccinated. In my county (830,000+ people) we have a dozen people in the hospital with Covid and none on ventilators. The vaccines are 88% effective against even mild infection and nearly 100% effective vs hospitalization or death. If you aren’t vaccinated it’s time to go in now. If you are, relax…you are well covered.

We will ride this wave out just like the last ones. The difference now is 60% of adults are fully vaccinated and who knows how many of the unvaccinated are naturally immune. Much smaller base to spread infection and the vast majority of the high risk are vaccinated. This is much less concerning than the Jan surge because of that fact.

Speaking of the UK it appears cases may have peaked. Too soon to say for sure but they have been trending down for a week now. If we are really 2 weeks behind the UK then our cases should peak in a week or so and start trending down so we have that to look forward to. I don’t really think our cases are moving in any way in conjunction with the UK, but if we are then the start of the end of this wave is potentially coming soon.

 

[correcaminos]

I disagree with that line of thinking. Your neighbors to the north cases have been dropping due to high vaccination rates.

I absolutely have no empathy for what is going on in the UK or the US. Settling for good enough is why they are in that situation.

What do you expect us to do though? I really am at a loss on how to fix it, so I've had to "settle" thanks to anti-vax rhetoric being spewed by so many.

 

[Lilofan]

What do you expect us to do though? I really am at a loss on how to fix it, so I've had to "settle" thanks to anti-vax rhetoric being spewed by so many.

Our country, the most advanced in the world sure have a lot of misled individuals that refuse to get the vaccine. It is a pandemic for the unvaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

This helps to explain the (seemingly high) number of vaccinated individuals who end up in hospital (though the difference between the US and UK figures is still striking):

Rates of double-jabbed people in hospital will grow – but that does not mean Covid vaccines are failing

Several factors, including the portion of those at highest risk among the double-vaccinated and antibody levels, account for the data

amp.theguardian.com

That is our govt PHE dept so I gave no reason to suggest that they are wrong - the fact is the more people who are vaccinated the more they are going to make up of hospitalisations for major reasons - remember our hospitalisations include people who have gone into hospital for routine treatments/operations and illnesses and have incidentally tested positive - as 70% have been double jabbed the likelihood of those people being vaccinated anyway is higher

I think this answers the question now. It’s the mix of who is vaccinated and who isn’t. So for infections 90%+ in the unvaccinated group but many are young and healthy so less hospitalizations while the higher risk groups are almost 100% in the vaccinated group so if they do get sick are still more likely to be hospitalized. Makes sense. In the US we are closer to 50/50 vaccinated and unvaccinated so we haven’t seen as high a percentage of vaccinated hospitalized since we still have too many higher risk people unvaccinated who are getting hospitalized.

 

[lewisc]

I wonder if we are starting to see the impact of waning antibodies from the vaccine. Antibody levels will naturally go down over time which will make people more susceptible to infection, but the T-Cell protection will kick to prevent the infection from getting to serious.

Israel is considering giving a third shot to at risk people who got their second shot early on. I don't know if the have evidence supporting diminished antibody levels or if it is just an assumption

 

[GoofGoof]

I can't say one way or another whether or not COVID leads to cognitive issues. What I can say is that if you don't have a baseline test on each individual you can't conclude cognitive decline unless it is very severe.

I was thinking the same thing. How do we know they didn’t have cognitive impairment prior to having Covid. It would be really interesting to see the NCAA run a study like this since they have a lot of baseline data stored for athletes due to concussion protocols. They could look at the pre and post Covid brain function of athletes who tested positive.