Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Trauma]

only if its adhered to. Somehow I expect there will be a lot of instances where it's not.

If it is not adhered to in California you think it will be elsewhere?

If it doesn’t work here for whatever reason it’s not going to work elsewhere.

 

[Angel Ariel]

If it is not adhered to in California you think it will be elsewhere?

If it doesn’t work here for whatever reason it’s not going to work elsewhere.

Your comments that I quoted are about whether masks are effective against delta. Masks are effective, data has shown that repeatedly. The measure you're looking at - whether case counts go down - is about human behavior, not masks. That's the point I'm trying to make.

 

[havoc315]

As one of the countries to have performed better in the pandemic, Australia's borders are still closed. After murmurs that visitors may be allowed to trickle in by the end of 2021, the government is now suggesting it will be 2022 at the earliest. On May 12, Qantas announced it was canceling international flights (other to New Zealand) until December 20, 2021. A travel bubble with New Zealand started April 19 -- although it was temporarily paused on May 6, and governments have warned that it is subject to interruption, depending on infection rates. Travel from New South Wales is currently paused, and major cities are under lockdown as the country battles the Delta variant which is now taking hold.


So this is fake news then?

No, you’re talking about nonessential travel. Australia remains open to international trade. They have ships and flights coming in every day for hard goods.

 

[danlb_2000]

LA County Daily COVID-19 Data - LA County Department of Public Health

publichealth.lacounty.gov

Keep an eye out here.

This will tell us if masks will really do much against Delta.

If they are effective I would expect a large decrease in cases soon.

No, this would only measure the impact of the mandate, not the actual mask wearing since there can be a disconnect between the two.

 

[Andrew C]

No, you’re talking about nonessential travel.

And we expect them to stay closed to nonessential travel forever? Because that is what they are going to have to do to keep covid out of their country. Do you honestly think the worldwide vaccination rate is ever going to be high enough to eradicate this? You're an expert on this stuff, right? I think it is going to take years to get the rates to where we no longer worry about outbreaks throughout the world.

 

[Trauma]

No, you’re talking about nonessential travel. Australia remains open to international trade. They have ships and flights coming in every day for hard goods.

Oh ok you don’t see the difference between people delivering goods to Australia under strict mitigation’s, to people sneaking across the border unchecked for virus.

Once entering the country they are further encouraged to hide any illness for fear of deportation.

Yeah these two groups are the same.

 

[Trauma]

No, this would only measure the impact of the mandate, not the actual mask wearing since there can be a disconnect between the two.

The end result is all that matters.

 

[Jrb1979]

And we expect them to stay closed to nonessential travel forever? Because that is what they are going to have to do to keep covid out of their country. Do you honestly think the worldwide vaccination rate is ever going to be high enough to eradicate this? You're an expert on this stuff, right? I think it is going to take years to get the rates to where we no longer worry about outbreaks throughout the world.

I personally don't expect non essential travel to stay closed forever. I do see most countries doing what Canada is doing. Show proof of vaccination for entry. I see that staying around for a few years.

 

[DisneyCane]

That's always been true, since day 1. The entire point of those items was to buy time. Not to reach an end goal but to buy time to get a better solution. It's always been about buying time until vaccination was available and then enough people were vaccinated. With no vaccine, it would have been about getting early warning and response processes in place to tamp down outbreaks as fast as possible locally.

We've been making the same mistake since day 1 too, thinking that the first step was enough and we could just end it without the second steps. As evidence, we have no early warning and response process at all. Of course, we never got cases low enough for that to work anyway. Other than the vaccine, we didn't do anything else with the time we were buying. It was mostly just wasted time delaying. We did manage to flatten enough to avoid complete healthcare system failure, so that was nice.


What's the Australia vaccination rate? They can't really "open up" until they get that high enough. In their case, "open up" really means opening the boarders. Since that's how they're mitigating, working like a huge bubble with strict ingress quarantine restrictions. They're not really locking down within the bubble.

If we had gotten the cases low enough (they did), and created the early warning and response processes to find outbreaks fast and contain them while still small (they seem to have done this), and done the controls to minimize ingress of infected people (easier for them than in the US), overall cases and impacts could have been smaller. None of that works once case counts are large enough.


The US plan is clearly Vaccinate or Bust. There is no fallback plan. Unfortunately, there's currently to many people nationally choosing Bust. The good news, for some, is that it's not equally distributed. Some areas are achieving the Vaccinate goal, others are way down the Bust path. Given the choice on where to travel to, I'm avoiding the Bust areas and places people from the Bust areas tend to visit.

From day 1 the entire point was not to buy time. The entire point was to "flatten the curve" so that the healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed. Early on nobody knew for certain that an effective vaccine would be available quickly.

 

[Andrew C]

I personally don't expect non essential travel to stay closed forever. I do see most countries doing what Canada is doing. Show proof of vaccination for entry. I see that staying around for a few years.

And you think Canada can afford (or has the ability) to close off at least 40% of non-essential travel into the country for years? Or a decade? Or longer?

 

[DisneyCane]

I'm not quite sure how they are doing that. I recently took a Covid test in Orange County (at the Bartlett location which was a point of discussion yesterday), and vaxx/non-vaxx is not information that is collected then the test is administered. I doubt that it's possible that Orange County is making contact with ALL 700+ cases before the day is over to confirm that they had not been vaxx'd.

If they aren't, then they are lying because they keep saying that they are.

 

[Trauma]

From day 1 the entire point was not to buy time. The entire point was to "flatten the curve" so that the healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed. Early on nobody knew for certain that an effective vaccine would be available quickly.

The problem is you can do this forever if you keep moving the goalposts on what a curve is.

 

[Disney Experience]

There is no way that the conclusion from the study in Israel is accurate. If the Pfizer vaccine is only 64% effective at preventing infections of Delta it would be impossible for Orange County, FL to have so few infections in vaccinated people. Delta is the dominant variant and it accounts for over half of cases (probably a lot more by now). For fewer than 5% of new cases to be in vaccinated people, the effectiveness against Delta has to be much higher than 64%. Every other study I've seen concluded that it is over 80% effective in preventing infections of Delta and most of them conclude that it is very close to the same effectiveness it has against other variants.

Fauci and the CDC continue to say that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. If the vaccine effectiveness against Delta was that much lower they would be sounding alarms.

Myself Being someone who was vaccinated with Pfizer in Central Florida , who then got moderate covid 9 months later in June( likely delta) but my sample that went through CVS/quest diagnostics was considered from someone unvaccinated, I do wonder what else might cause inaccurate reporting of vaccinations( my case is probably the exception) . Vaccination status is self reported and you have to get your dates of vaccination entered at the time you fill out test request , but if you say no, you don’t. Tests done in ER may also be marked unvaccinated in the larger databases. Not sure if ER enters that detail.

Is their ( OC) reporting based off of hospitalizations only? That would then be different than israel’s calculation which is based on either ( would have to check) all covid symptomatic, or perhaps just positive covid tests.

We fo need to know if we are comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges. I agree I do think that OC vs Israel is comparison of mixed fruit. But I cannot assume the error is in the Israel numbers.

 

[Figgy1]

The problem is you can do this forever if you keep moving the goalposts on what a curve is.

IMHO the problem is the curve not currently flat

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

If they aren't, then they are lying because they keep saying that they are.

Well... if they aren’t asking the question how do they know? Are they comparing files?

 

[Jrb1979]

And you think Canada can afford (or has the ability) to close off at least 40% of non-essential travel into the country for years?

Get vaccinated then you can enter. I don't see what the big deal is.

 

[havoc315]

And we expect them to stay closed to nonessential travel forever? Because that is what they are going to have to do to keep covid out of their country. Do you honestly think the worldwide vaccination rate is ever going to be high enough to eradicate this? You're an expert on this stuff, right? I think it is going to take years to get the rates to where we no longer worry about outbreaks throughout the world.

We missed the boat on eradication. I suspect they will keep nonessential travel banned until they vaccinate a high percentage of their vaccination, which will suppress significant surges.

 

[DisneyCane]

Well... if they aren’t asking the question how do they know? Are they comparing files?

@Polkadotdress didn't test positive. I assume they are either contacting the positives or they have a way to cross check with the vaccination database.

 

[DisneyCane]

Yes, you can. But there is international travel -- Eventually, infection will be re-introduced.

So you can lock down whenever a wave happens, quickly crushing it, so you can return to "normal." Which is what Australia has been doing.

And in the longer term --- continue that until you beat it back with vaccination. (Australia isn't highly vaccinated yet).

In the end, I suspect Australia's approach will be among the most successful in the world.
In total, they have had 35 deaths per million of population. The United States is at 1,877 per million. 35 vs 1,887.

It isn't "normal" to keep locking down every time a wave happens. "Normal" is living like we did before.

 

[Andrew C]

We missed the boat on eradication. I suspect they will keep nonessential travel banned until they vaccinate a high percentage of their vaccination, which will suppress significant surges.

What is a high percentage though? And when can the entire world achieve that? I see that as taking years and years. It isn't good enough that just Australia achieves a high vaccination rate. So, they are going to keep things like tourism off the table for a decade?