Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Yodascousin]

Agreed, though the trend in the UK cannot be discounted and until it is under control, this thread is valid.
View attachment 562957

Whether it's the Delta variant or other reasons, cases are going the wrong way quickly over there.

It’s the delta variant spreading amongst those who haven’t been vaccinated yet the majority of cases now are in school children who are not eligible yet 0-20 and who are tested twice a week to attend school. Although cases are going up hospitalisation sand deaths remain stable and hardly any cases in those who are vaccinated. The data is pretty clear get the vaccine!

 

[Heppenheimer]

I don't see any mention of loss of smell in that paper, but it does say this "with 42.6 per cent impaired by these symptoms during daily activities. " I don't think loss of smell would be considered "impairment of daily activities"

Correct. "Daily activities" in a medical sense means the things you need to do on a daily basis, like feed, bathe and dress yourself, and go to work or school. If you are impaired in one or more of these activities, that implies quite a bit of dysfunction.

 

[Zummi Gummi]

With only 61.3% of the eligible population having received their first dose, the United States has reached a dubious milestone.

The 7-day moving average of first doses is now at its lowest point of 2021.

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I mean this is no surprise, though. Everyone knew the last 25-30% or so would be a lot harder to convince then the first 25-30%. This was not unexpected.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I mean, more untrue stuff. I dunno where you guys get this stuff. Are you just making it up?

Example: Very rarely, long-term seizures, coma, lowered consciousness, or permanent brain damage may happen after DTaP vaccination.

It happens and long after trials complete.

The duration of the side effects can last a long time, but they don't appear de novo long after the vaccine is given. Theoretically, there simply isn't a plausible biological mechanism for that to occur, and in actuality, it isn't observed.

 

[DisneyCane]

It will help but I have seen many people say they still won't travel due to the cost of getting a test.

I didn't look carefully at what it included but there was an Abbott self test at Walmart for $20 and it said it included two tests. If it can really be done for $20 a test then the cost issue should be resolved.

 

[Kevin_W]

With only 61.3% of the eligible population having received their first dose, the United States has reached a dubious milestone.

The 7-day moving average of first doses is now at its lowest point of 2021.

I'm curious what the percentage is hat aren't getting the 2nd shot (and why?), as it seems much more valuable vs the Delta variant and some others.

For example, I've been following Hawaii's vaccination rate as we have a trip planned there later this summer. The governor has said that they will dispense with pre-travel Covid tests from the mainland once 60% of Hawaiians are vaccinated. 4 weeks ago, 59.7% had one shot so whether Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J, nearly that same %-age should be fully vaccinated by today. Yet the number is only 48.7% . (Data from here.)

The US as a whole shows a much smaller gap: the 4-week % was 47.1% vs today's 43% fully vaccinated. But that is still a fair chuck of people not getting the second shot. I realize some would have a valid reason to delay the second shot (travel, medical, etc.) but it does not seem like it would be that many.

 

[DisneyCane]

Here's the current vaccination status for Orange County via Mayor Demings (Orange County DOH is now reporting the vaccinated percentage from ages 12+) -

View attachment 562918

With only 61.3% of the eligible population having received their first dose, the United States has reached a dubious milestone.

The 7-day moving average of first doses is now at its lowest point of 2021.

View attachment 563008

I mean this is no surprise, though. Everyone knew the last 25-30% or so would be a lot harder to convince then the first 25-30%. This was not unexpected.

I'm actually surprised at how low the actual vaccine acceptance is and how slowly more people are getting vaccinated at this point. From the polls posted, it was foretold that 20% were pretty adamantly against getting a shot and that 10% more would need convincing/prodding. However, we've reached a point where almost 40% haven't gotten a shot.

I think that two things weren't anticipated. First is (and I am very surprised) how few people under 35 want to go get vaccinated. Second is the damage done by the unnecessary pause of J&J. That gave ammunition to anti-vaxxers and put more fear into people who were on the fence. That pause may have been the worst decision made in the whole pandemic to be honest.

Honestly, I think what should be done now is to have both insurance companies and the Government say that if you aren't vaccinated and you get COVID-19, you aren't covered at all. As long as you get the first shot, you are covered. Companies also need to have a policy that if you choose not to be vaccinated and miss work due to COVID-19 you do not get paid while if you are vaccinated you will be paid.

At the current rate, there's very little chance to hit the 70% of adults by 7/4. Honestly, I'm not sure if it will ever get hit if something drastic like my suggestion isn't done.

 

[Kevin_W]

I didn't look carefully at what it included but there was an Abbott self test at Walmart for $20 and it said it included two tests. If it can really be done for $20 a test then the cost issue should be resolved.

That test isn't accepted by most (any?) of the places requiring pre-test travel. Some accept antigen or PCR and some only PCR results. And often it is within 2-3 days of your travel so you need quick turnaround times. These can often cost $100-175. For a family travelling somewhere, that's a significant added cost.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm actually surprised at how low the actual vaccine acceptance is and how slowly more people are getting vaccinated at this point. From the polls posted, it was foretold that 20% were pretty adamantly against getting a shot and that 10% more would need convincing/prodding. However, we've reached a point where almost 40% haven't gotten a shot.

I think that two things weren't anticipated. First is (and I am very surprised) how few people under 35 want to go get vaccinated. Second is the damage done by the unnecessary pause of J&J. That gave ammunition to anti-vaxxers and put more fear into people who were on the fence. That pause may have been the worst decision made in the whole pandemic to be honest.

Honestly, I think what should be done now is to have both insurance companies and the Government say that if you aren't vaccinated and you get COVID-19, you aren't covered at all. As long as you get the first shot, you are covered. Companies also need to have a policy that if you choose not to be vaccinated and miss work due to COVID-19 you do not get paid while if you are vaccinated you will be paid.

At the current rate, there's very little chance to hit the 70% of adults by 7/4. Honestly, I'm not sure if it will ever get hit if something drastic like my suggestion isn't done.

The polling never said 80% would get the vaccine as soon as it was available. The latest poll that I posted a few days back had 64% vaccinated (about where we are), 12% who still plan to go in and get it, 5% who don’t plan to get it right now but can be convinced to change their mind and 19% who won’t get the vaccine no matter what. Right now we are slowly churning through that 12% that still want the vaccine. The older polls showed 55-65% that were either vaccinated or planned to get a vaccine as soon as eligible, 20% that said no never and the rest in the wait and see bucket. So most of that 12% left were in the wait and see bucket.

We may not hit 70% by 7/4 but that’s an arbitrary number anyway. I think we will still end up between 70 and 80% when the dust settles but there may still be people going a few mo ths from now. The pace has slowed but isn’t zero.

 

[DisneyCane]

The polling never said 80% would get the vaccine as soon as it was available. The latest poll that I posted a few days back had 64% vaccinated (about where we are), 12% who still plan to go in and get it, 5% who don’t plan to get it right now but can be convinced to change their mind and 19% who won’t get the vaccine no matter what. Right now we are slowly churning through that 12% that still want the vaccine. The older polls showed 55-65% that were either vaccinated or planned to get a vaccine as soon as eligible, 20% that said no never and the rest in the wait and see bucket. So most of that 12% left were in the wait and see bucket.

We may not hit 70% by 7/4 but that’s an arbitrary number anyway. I think we will still end up between 70 and 80% when the dust settles but there may still be people going a few mo ths from now. The pace has slowed but isn’t zero.

I hope you are right. I agree the 7/4 thing was arbitrary. It's just so slow right now as far as increases. FL seems to go up maybe 0.1% per day. 10 days to increase 1% of the population, 3% every month so maybe by September we reach the Israel benchmark of 60% of the population.

The majority of people under 35 don't seem to be worried about getting COVID at all and therefore don't bother getting vaccinated. Not because they are "resistant" or "anti-vax" but because they don't feel like it or don't want to be bothered with the inconvenience.

 

[DisneyCane]

That test isn't accepted by most (any?) of the places requiring pre-test travel. Some accept antigen or PCR and some only PCR results. And often it is within 2-3 days of your travel so you need quick turnaround times. These can often cost $100-175. For a family travelling somewhere, that's a significant added cost.

For sure $100-$175 per person is a very significant added cost and would prevent me from taking some trips. Especially short ones. It's certainly not worth that added cost to go somewhere on a 3 day weekend when there is no value at all in return for the money.

Heck, I'm still upset that the way it was done I ended up having to pay $40 for a completely useless test that I had to be swabbed a week in advance of a medical screening procedure. Testing that far in advance is pointless to start with and I was fully vaccinated for several weeks by the time I took the test.

 

[havoc315]

On the subject. This is the most recent poll I could find online. 64% already vaccinated and 12% still plan to go in to get us to 76% vaccinated. There is another approximately 5% who say they won’t get the vaccine but could be convinced to change their mind and the rest say no, never. Pretty consistent for a few months now. The effort that is needed is to get all or most of that 12% to come in and maybe a portion of the 5%. The roughly 20% no nevers aren’t coming in and that’s OK. Too many people have written off anyone who is unvaccinated as part of that group but the reality is almost half the unvaccinated could still be reached.

COVID-19 Vaccine-Reluctant in U.S. Likely to Stay That Way

Seventy-six percent of U.S. adults report they have been vaccinated against COVID-19 or plan to be. One in five adults who do not plan to get vaccinated say they are at least somewhat likely to change their mind.

news.gallup.com

The problem with these polls is the same bias we saw in the 2020 election polls. Those that completely distrust our institutions (government, media, medicine) are less likely to respond to polls. That led to undercounting GOP/Trump support in almost every mainstream 2020 poll, and the same effect would lead to underestimating anti-vaxers.

I’d love for us to get to 74% of adults but looking at the trend lines, it appears we may max out just under 70%. ( I’d narrow it to 68-71%).

 

[Kevin_W]

Heck, I'm still upset that the way it was done I ended up having to pay $40 for a completely useless test that I had to be swabbed a week in advance of a medical screening procedure. Testing that far in advance is pointless to start with and I was fully vaccinated for several weeks by the time I took the test.

My father had a series of 3 surgeries this winter at the Cleveland Clinic (a 2 hour drive for him). Before each of the 3 surgeries, he had to drive to Cleveland 2 days prior to the surgery for a Covid test. And this even after he had had and recovered from Covid.

It was "free", minus the cost of gas, 4 ours of time on the road, and the fact that driving to Cleveland several times in winter probably increased his risk of death higher than Covid. Overall, pretty infuriating, especially when Covid testing could be had at several locations within a few minutes drive.

 

[havoc315]

You’re correct. Meant to use the rolling average, just grabbed the wrong number. The average was even worse




The good news is that there is evidence of an uptick this week. So hopefully the decline this week isn’t nearly as significant — hopefully we are starting to flatten.



About a 65% drop in a month. If that rate of decline were to continue (not saying it will… I suspect the rate of decline will start to slow), we would be at just 230,000 per day by mid June.

So as of June 1, 7-day rolling average was 430,000. Mid June of 230,000, as projected above, seems likely to be around there.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

Using Israel as a model again, you can see that you eventually hit a brick wall of vaccination.

As we can see, new vaccinations dropped to nearly non-existent in Israel by the end of April. We may now be nearing a similar point in the US.

Notably, we had been ahead of the U.K. in full vaccination as they pursued a first shot policy. But they have now surpassed us in full vaccination, as their rates have remained steady and the rates have plummeted in the US.

 

[havoc315]

Lets assume for a minute that the pace drops all the way to 2M doses a day on average and let’s assume it’s 50/50 first shot vs second. That’s still a million new first shots a day. At that pace we would reach 59% of Americans with 1 shot by June 11 which is where Israel is now. So 7 to 8 weeks as the worst case scenario. If pace doesn’t drop that fast it could be sooner.

Keep in mind also that kids 12+ will be eligible soon and those same adults that cut the line and ran out to get themselves a vaccine will be signing their teenage kids up.

Sorry goof... gotta do it. Your “worst case scenario” was 59% of all Americans by June 11. We are at 52%. At current pace, if we don’t get any further decline, we are still about 2 months away from 59%.
Since we are still declining, we are unlikely to hit 59% until younger kids can get vaccinated.

 

[mmascari]

Second is the damage done by the unnecessary pause of J&J. That gave ammunition to anti-vaxxers and put more fear into people who were on the fence. That pause may have been the worst decision made in the whole pandemic to be honest.

It was the safe and conservative response. Imagine if it had gone the other way. Imagine there was an issue that didn't show up in thousands of doses but was rare enough that only once there were millions that it showed up. If that had happened and they didn't pause (and stopped using, since in this imagined scenario they found an issue). In that scenario, it would have been an even bigger disaster. Before they did the extra analysis, they had to assume they were going to find something, even if that was an unlikely possibility.

Which points to how strict vaccine safety testing is. A vaccine needs to be significantly safer than almost any other treatment.

The news reporting, and the federal messaging on the pause were all poor. Everything talked about some new risk. They should have focused on how the safety testing is so comprehensive and the standard vaccines are held to. The pause should have been marketed as an example that even extremely rare scenarios are looked at and that we can accept the vaccines as safe because of this. Messages with 0.0000000 lots of zeroes % of risk. Way way below the risks from COVID or even everyday medications people take all the time.

 

[dreday3]

Sorry goof... gotta do it. Your “worst case scenario” was 59% of all Americans by June 11. We are at 52%. At current pace, if we don’t get any further decline, we are still about 2 months away from 59%.
Since we are still declining, we are unlikely to hit 59% until younger kids can get vaccinated.

"Those numbers jump to 61% with one shot or more and 50% fully inoculated for the eligible 12 and older population."

Goof's post specified one shot. Can't really count all American's when all American's can't receive shot yet.

 

[havoc315]

"Those numbers jump to 61% with one shot or more and 50% fully inoculated for the eligible 12 and older population."

Goof's post specified one shot.

Goof's post was talking about total population, not "eligible population" -- We were using the comparison to Israel, reporting eligible population. Israel was at 80% of eligible population at the time. 80% eligible population, 59% of total population. Goof was making the point that we would be catch up to Israel, worst case scenario, by 6/11.

 

[Polkadotdress]

We may not hit 70% by 7/4 but that’s an arbitrary number anyway. I think we will still end up between 70 and 80% when the dust settles but there may still be people going a few months from now. The pace has slowed but isn’t zero.

I’d love for us to get to 74% of adults but looking at the trend lines, it appears we may max out just under 70%. ( I’d narrow it to 68-71%).

Come on people! Doctor's orders for me are that I am to remain masked until we reach 70%.

UGH.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Come on people! Doctor's orders for me are that I am to remain masked until we reach 70%.

UGH.

Watch out, Polkadotdress. The doctors on this thread will challenge your doctor to a duel.