Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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havoc315

Well-Known Member
Is NJ, NY, CT and PA will not have another winter spike soon because they are high vaccination rates to enough to prevent any spikes and surges.

In those states, there are still plenty of communities with lower vaccination rates. I wonder how many of the Amish in PA are getting vaccinated, for example?

And a small spike can hit even a heavily vaccinated community, but such a spike should quickly be brought under control.
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
In those states, there are still plenty of communities with lower vaccination rates. I wonder how many of the Amish in PA are getting vaccinated, for example?

And a small spike can hit even a heavily vaccinated community, but such a spike should quickly be brought under control.
We don't yet about another winter spike yet, but let's see how many people are getting vaccinated faster by this fall/winter.
 

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
Huh? He was absolutely adamant for the last year that the virus could not have originated from a lab. Now, he's saying it's possible.
Does it really matter? COVID19 is here, how it came in to being will be a point of argument for a long time to come. What I see as important, motivating and relevant is the coming together (as the Marines would say "Improvise, Adapt and Overcome") of so many to counter the illness. Dr. F has become simply a talking head.
 

matt9112

Well-Known Member
Does it really matter? COVID19 is here, how it came in to being will be a point of argument for a long time to come. What I see as important, motivating and relevant is the coming together (as the Marines would say "Improvise, Adapt and Overcome") of so many to counter the illness. Dr. F has become simply a talking head.
Depends on your view....if it was a lab leak the entirety of the covid19 epidemic was caused by a govermental organization. Obviously not on purpose but still. Its relevance is really tied to the fact if we knew more info forthcoming from the CCP earlier flights etc could have been halted earlier. Governments didn't seem to care until cases were already on there shores.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Some notes on international observations:

Israel: Cases are now stagnating at an incredibly low number: 7 day rolling average is 29 case per day, that's 0.3 cases per 100,000.
They have vaccinated over 80% of adults, AND they still require indoor masks. They have dropped most other restrictions.
If anything, this is a demonstration of the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine PLUS indoor masking.
No, you can't draw a conclusion like that based upon available data. There is no way to know if Israel would have had the same results with the vaccination rate and no indoor masks. It can be concluded that indoor masks without the vaccine do not get the rate to the current level because that condition existed before the vaccinations started.

To draw your conclusion scientifically, Israel would have had to have some areas of the country mask indoors on top of the vaccinations and some areas of the country not mask indoors on top of the vaccinations. The areas would have to be similar to each other in popultion density and demographics. Then we would have seen if there was a difference between Pfizer vaccine only and Pfizer vaccine PLUS indoor masking.

The very clear result from all studies (Israel and elsewhere) is that the vaccines work incredibly effectively to reduce infections and community spread as well as serious illness and death among the vaccinated.
 

Incomudro

Well-Known Member
Does it really matter? COVID19 is here, how it came in to being will be a point of argument for a long time to come. What I see as important, motivating and relevant is the coming together (as the Marines would say "Improvise, Adapt and Overcome") of so many to counter the illness. Dr. F has become simply a talking head.
Yes, it does really matter.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
Some notes on international observations:

Israel: Cases are now stagnating at an incredibly low number: 7 day rolling average is 29 case per day, that's 0.3 cases per 100,000.
They have vaccinated over 80% of adults, AND they still require indoor masks. They have dropped most other restrictions.
If anything, this is a demonstration of the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine PLUS indoor masking.
Their 7-day rolling average of deaths has actually "spiked" -- It was down to just 1 death per day, it's back up to 2 for now. (Of course, many of those deaths may be lagging reports).
They will likely drop indoor masks once kids are widely vaccinated.
Israel is a 9 million person country, about the size and population of NJ. Per capita, if compared to the US, it would be as if the US was having about 60 deaths per day and 957 cases per day. Yes -- with the proper measures, this thing can be driven down to near zero.

UK is an interesting analysis. They have distributed vaccine at a slightly higher level than the US. They chose a different approach: delay the second shot, but distribute the first shot as widely as possible. They are still more age limited than the US, but qualifying age groups are adopting vaccination at rates of 90%+. While Israel relied exclusively on Pfizer, about 1/3rd of the UK population has received the Astra Zeneca vaccine (more than half of those vaccinated, have been vaxed with Astra Zeneca). While effective, studies have repeatedly shown Astra Zeneca is noticeably less effective, especially against newer variants.
Anyway, receiving at least 1 dose:
UK: 57%
US: 44.7%
Israel: 60.1%

And even more than Israel, UK has kept significant Covid restrictions in place. So based purely on first doses and restrictions, you'd expect the UK to be doing as well as Israel. But the reality is a bit more complicated:
Cases per day in the UK: They were under 2000 per day in early May, but since then, they have actually risen: Now 2600 per day. This is still a fairly low number, but represents 4 cases per 100,000. That's much closer to the 7.6 per 100,000 of the US than the 0.3 of Israel.
More notably, it's the same level as mid April: They have not seen any decline in cases in the last 5-6 weeks.
So what's happening in the UK?
1 -- They are NOT at herd immunity. They have plenty of vaccine suppression driving down numbers significantly, but clearly it's not herd immunity.
2 -- Astra Zeneca simply isn't as effective. The India variant is becoming prevalent in the UK. Both Pfizer and Astra Zeneca only provide 33% protection after the first dose. After 2 doses, Pfizer is 93% effective against the UK variant and 88% against the India variant. Astra Zeneca is only 60% effective against the India variant and 66% against the UK variant.
So to some degree, the continued sustained cases in the UK may be due to simply using a less effective vaccine -- much like the Yankees staff developed 9 positive cases even though they were fully vaxed.. but with the less effective JNJ.
3 -- Continuation of the same point -- As I said, especially against the India variant, 2 doses provide a LOT more protection than just 1 dose. Only 34% of the UK has 2 doses, compared to 39% in the US and 57% in Israel.

Now the good news for UK: While relying heavily on 1-dose of Astrazeneca compared to 2 doses of Pfizer, has led to a more sustained case level, it has been VERY effective against death. This is also due to the fact that UK is vaccinating over 90% of qualifying age groups, over 95% of seniors. Running about 10 points ahead of the US. In late January, they were averaging 1241 deaths per day -- Almost 2 deaths per 100,000 people per day. Their 7 day average is down to 6! That's 0.009 deaths per 100,000 per day.
The US: Late January, we were at 34670 deaths per day: About 1.05 deaths per 100,000 people. We are down to 543, about 0.16 per 100,000 per day. So US went from a death rate higher than the US, to a death rate much much lower.
So why has the UK been SO SUCCESSFUL at preventing death, even with a sustained case level? Because they have near universal vaccination of those over 50, and even 1 shot is providing protection against death.

Some lessons for the US:
We want to get to the herd immunity level of Israel, where we have under 1,000 cases per day, nationwide. We want to get to the death level seen in Israel and the UK: Where death has become exceedingly rare.

1. Sadly, the ship has sailed, but we would have benefited from keeping indoor mask mandates and vaccine passports.
2. The JNJ scare may have been a blessing in disguise in the US. Any vaccine is better than no vaccine. But as long as Moderna and Pfizer are widely available, they will provide superior protection to JNJ/Astrazeneca.
Let's say you need 80% immunity for true herd immunity: A vaccine that is "only" 60-70% effective will never provide 80% community immunity, even if everyone is fulled vaxed. So to the extent that the US is relying more on Pfizer and Moderna, it could help us potentially follow Israel's path more than the UK path, in terms of cases.
3. If we really want to quickly drive down cases as much as both the UK and Israel, we need greater vaccine adoption. We have 85% of seniors with at least 1 dose and 74% with 2 doses. Those numbers sound good, but UK and Israel is looking at 95%+ in those age brackets.
And we drop off in the 50-65 far more than they do.

I'm optimistic that we will largely squash Covid. But at our current rate, there will be another winter spike in low vax communities. Likely no where near as big and dangerous as the winter 2020-2021 spike. But there should be higher vax communities where Covid nearly disappears.

Good analysis. thanks.

Have you read any thoughts on why the Maldives is going through a large spike right now in spite of being one of the world leaders in vaccination rate (57.7% with 1 dose, 29.8% completed, but 7-day case average has gone from 91 in mid-April to 1626 by today).
 

AEfx

Well-Known Member
He's a scientist working for politicians.
Precisely.

If I had a nickel for every person I saw dismiss the lab origin as a "conspiracy theory" or see them belittle or yell at people about "THE SCIENCE!", or actual "experts" in white coats on TV last year saying how it was some far-fetched nonsense and how certain they were that it wasn't...well, I'd be writing this from Golden Oaks right now.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Good analysis. thanks.

Have you read any thoughts on why the Maldives is going through a large spike right now in spite of being one of the world leaders in vaccination rate (57.7% with 1 dose, 29.8% completed, but 7-day case average has gone from 91 in mid-April to 1626 by today).
I think you mean Seychelles. Maldives is also spiking but they are only at 5% vax. :)

I don't think there is any big mystery here, but the laws of large numbers in action. Americans are acting as if the vaccine is some sort of shield, where the small possibility of something happening gets rounded down to zero at every opportunity, when it's not actually zero. Seychelles vaccines are not the mRNA ones, and have lower efficacy. The variant also means lower efficacy, and therefore more breakthrough cases. They did well to control infection before, so they don't have the sum from the "naturally infected" to get them to that herd immunity threshold.

This is still a highly transmissible virus against which humans have no natural protection. We are very, very, very lucky that we have a 95% against the original, and 80ish% against the variant, vaccine available to us. Now we are seeing what happens when it's only 60%. The herd immunity threshold gets pushed up, they don't have enough people that got sick already, so they're farther away from it. It shows why additional mitigations are necessary, but we are going to get away with it because we won in both quality in vaccine and natural infections.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Good analysis. thanks.

Have you read any thoughts on why the Maldives is going through a large spike right now in spite of being one of the world leaders in vaccination rate (57.7% with 1 dose, 29.8% completed, but 7-day case average has gone from 91 in mid-April to 1626 by today).
I wonder about Sinovac with the much lower efficacy rate for cases. It's pretty decent for moderate to severe but not great unless you are okay with mild cases.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
He is not making that assertion by himself. Rad the actual story before you allow social media to feed you a bit of information and you run with it as gospel. They are still not sure what happened. It could have been made in a lab and then broke containment, or it could have developed naturally and then spread by people trying to get it under control, etc. They are still not sure. No one has ever flat out concrete said where it came from. It is not a flip-flop. And that is all I am going to say on this because I refuse to get into an online argument anymore. ;)
This. Over and over. Does everyone take a headline and run with it anymore without actually reading the content? Sheesh. I get people here don’t like him for whatever reason but if your going to criticize someone get the truth first.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
I think you mean Seychelles. Maldives is also spiking but they are only at 5% vax. :)

I don't think there is any big mystery here, but the laws of large numbers in action. Americans are acting as if the vaccine is some sort of shield, where the small possibility of something happening gets rounded down to zero at every opportunity, when it's not actually zero. Seychelles vaccines are not the mRNA ones, and have lower efficacy. The variant also means lower efficacy, and therefore more breakthrough cases. They did well to control infection before, so they don't have the sum from the "naturally infected" to get them to that herd immunity threshold.

This is still a highly transmissible virus against which humans have no natural protection. We are very, very, very lucky that we have a 95% against the original, and 80ish% against the variant, vaccine available to us. Now we are seeing what happens when it's only 60%. The herd immunity threshold gets pushed up, they don't have enough people that got sick already, so they're farther away from it. It shows why additional mitigations are necessary, but we are going to get away with it because we won in both quality in vaccine and natural infections.
No Maldives has 57.7% with first dose. Only 29.8% fully. They are spiking. Seychelles as well. They are using mostly Sinopharm which has more unknown real world data.

I think yet again you are putting way too little faith in some vaccines. Though others really are not as good as some.
 
No Maldives has 57.7% with first dose. Only 29.8% fully. They are spiking. Seychelles as well. They are using mostly Sinopharm which has more unknown real world data.

I think yet again you are putting way too little faith in some vaccines. Though others really are not as good as some.
I saw another report yesterday that the efficacy of the sinovac is less than 50% and that the vaccine needs a booster after 3-6 months to maintain even that level. It is another case of cheap chinese junk.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
No, you can't draw a conclusion like that based upon available data. There is no way to know if Israel would have had the same results with the vaccination rate and no indoor masks. It can be concluded that indoor masks without the vaccine do not get the rate to the current level because that condition existed before the vaccinations started.

My statement is accurate. We know that doing both, vaccine + indoor masking is super super effective.
We don't know the effectiveness of 60% vaccination without masking, as that has not been tested.
So yes -- we don't know if the results would be the same without masking. We also don't know if the results would be the same with 100% masking an no vaccines. The studies have repeatedly shown that indoor masking is VERY effective. Almost all spread has occurred maskless -- Even where masks have been required, there has been large non-compliance. Some people flagrantly disregarded masks, but even among mostly compliant people, they still occasionally had people in their homes without masks (that's how my family was infected), etc. We also know that even among vaccinated people, you can have small outbreaks if you skip masks: Example of the 9 cases on the NY Yankees.

We know the combination of doing both is indeed super super effective.

The very clear result from all studies (Israel and elsewhere) is that the vaccines work incredibly effectively to reduce infections and community spread as well as serious illness and death among the vaccinated.

Not disagreeing on the effectiveness of vaccines. But what we know as fact is that doing both: indoor masking with vaccines is indeed ultra effective. (at a 60% population / 80% adult vax rate as in Israel)
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
No Maldives has 57.7% with first dose. Only 29.8% fully. They are spiking. Seychelles as well. They are using mostly Sinopharm which has more unknown real world data
I blaim being on vacation, but I did Google and it only came back with 5%.

Anyway, same answer. A less effective vaccine means bad things can happen against a highly transmissible, novel infectious disease. And it indicates that the actual herd immunity threshold is above 58% (vax + natural).
 
My statement is accurate. We know that doing both, vaccine + indoor masking is super super effective.
We don't know the effectiveness of 60% vaccination without masking, as that has not been tested.
So yes -- we don't know if the results would be the same without masking. We also don't know if the results would be the same with 100% masking an no vaccines. The studies have repeatedly shown that indoor masking is VERY effective. Almost all spread has occurred maskless -- Even where masks have been required, there has been large non-compliance. Some people flagrantly disregarded masks, but even among mostly compliant people, they still occasionally had people in their homes without masks (that's how my family was infected), etc. We also know that even among vaccinated people, you can have small outbreaks if you skip masks: Example of the 9 cases on the NY Yankees.

We know the combination of doing both is indeed super super effective.



Not disagreeing on the effectiveness of vaccines. But what we know as fact is that doing both: indoor masking with vaccines is indeed ultra effective. (at a 60% population / 80% adult vax rate as in Israel)
Masking does not really prevent catching Covid, it only helps prevent the spread. So only a person with Covid needs the mask; if you are vaccinated it is likely redundant and useless.
 
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