Not too long a ways behind Israel. About 6 weeks on vaccinations. 6 weeks ago Israel had vaccinated roughly 50% of their adult population. At the same time they had a 7 day daily average of 3,681 cases a day or 40 cases per 100,000 people. This was the end of their plateau in cases that occurred right after they ended their lockdown. Today they are at 159 cases a day or 1.7 per 100,000. They had a 96% drop in cases in 6 weeks.
The current US 7 day daily average is 70,451 cases a day or 21 cases per 100,000 people. We just crossed the 50% of adults started vaccination threshold last weekend so about where Israel was 6 weeks ago. With vaccines we are on pace to get to 60% of the population at least started by the end of May (roughly 6 weeks) and Israel today sits at 59% of their total population with at least 1 shot. In about 6 weeks we should be caught up to Israel on vaccinations.
I am not saying we will be at 1.7 cases per 100,000 people by June 1 (that would be great

) but we should see the impact of vaccines and cases should be way down. I know Israel implemented a vaccine passport system when their lockdown ended and we have no such system, but the system didn’t limit any private gatherings or public things like museums, grocery stores, retail shopping or many other common activities. It did limit bars/clubs, indoor dining, sporting events and other large group gatherings to those who are vaccinated. It’s unknown at this time how much of the drop in cases is tied to that system and how much would have happened anyway. The other point overlooked is Israel was at a point that was nearly double the population adjusted daily cases compared to where we are today. So they had better mitigations but had a bigger number to get down from. Again, not a lock that we follow their example, but it gives you a ballpark idea how effective the vaccines can be and at what level of the population vaccinated.