Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Figgy1]

The Palm Beach Post

www.palmbeachpost.com

Interesting article about the EO - briefly mentions Disney.

What does it say without naming politicians or parties. It's behind a paywall

 

[mmascari]

Everyone was talking about positivity rare for the past couple of months. But what happens when only those with symptoms go and get tested?

I would imagine at some point it will get to just that. Wouldnt we then be seeing crazy high positivity rates? If 10 people have symptoms and all 10 went to get tested and all 10 had the virus...........

I am just wondering how that would work out.

Did those 10 people only have contact with vaccinated people and nobody else? - Unlikely today, maybe eventually.
Were they completely isolated in the days leading up to testing positive? - They saw at least someone to catch it.

If 10 people have symptoms and get tested, and some of them are positive. We should be finding out who they had contact with and testing all of those people, at minimum the unvaccinated. Let's pretend all 10 were positive, they each had 3 contacts. That's 30 more tests that should be done. Presumably, most of those people will not test positive, those that do, repeats the cycle. If the positivity rate is going up, we're not doing that work. It means we don't know where it's spreading.

Positivity rate has always been a flawed statistic since the people who are tested are self-selecting (or other-deselected when told not to get a test unless you have symptoms).

That's why many here have always looked to other stats, such as hospitalization and deaths.

Tho, the positivity rate hasn't been too far off. In general, we see the hospitalization and death rates conform to positivity rate two to four weeks later, as is expected.

In the end, the timing of 'when things get back to normal' is when there are very few deaths and hospitalizations. Then, contact tracing can theoretically contain new cases.

It's not that it's a flawed statistic, it's that it's being used for the wrong thing often. It's a measure of how well we're doing with that contact tracing and finding out how infection is spreading. It's not useful on it's own, and definitely not as some absolute value. But, it does have value. Trending up, really high number, is a good indication that we don't know where spread is occurring. Maybe we're only testing those with symptoms and not any contacts, that self selected group. Super low, but cases are still very high and going up, maybe we're testing the wrong people, just random. Trending down and cases are going down, we're probably tracking the outbreak and finding the spread. But, there's not some magic number that's good. And as others have pointed out, when things are near the ends it can get out of sync. Only have 1 infection positive with 2 contacts tested 33% positivity, but it may be contained. Test 100 random people, 0% positivity, but if there's still cases it's just testing the wrong people. When it's done with targeted, traced testing, that's when it has some value of how well that process is working to find spread.

 

[havoc315]

Would a metric of tests administered per 100k help know if there is enough testing going on?
Too many variables to account for.

More data would always be helpful.

But unless you have uniform randomized testing, it will remain an imperfect metric.

Sometimes I've seen commentators bemoan "oh no, testing is going down!"
But that's not necessarily a bad thing: people go get voluntary tests if they are feeling sick or if they have been exposed to a known case.
So testing going down could simply mean fewer people feeling sick and fewer people getting exposed to known cases.

Significant randomized testing is the best way to detect outbreaks early.... not waiting around for a bunch of people to start feeling symptomatic. But we aren't doing a ton of that. The closest we get is the extent to which people get tested in order to travel, etc.

 

[havoc315]

Only 26% have 1 dose?
I hope that's wrong. At that rate, Orange County may never get to 50%. Statewide, Florida is at 34.8% with first dose. Nationwide, we are at 36.4% with at least first dose.

 

[Chi84]

What does it say without naming politicians or parties. It's behind a paywall

It quotes a legal expert at Georgetown University saying the EO is very likely unlawful and that even if the legislature passed such a law, it would be difficult and unwise to stop a company from doing a vaccine passport. "DeSantis, as a governor, does not have the power to sweep away private sector rights." Also, the EEOC, a federal agency, has said that requiring proof of vaccination as a condition of work is lawful under federal law.

According to the president of the union representing many WDW CMs (Unite Here! Local 362), "I think that he'd find that American labor law, in general, would disagree with [the order]. Employers can require drug testing and vaccination, just like a school system. *** If Disney says they believe in science and doctors and vaccines, and people getting it makes them safe, then why can't Disney require that?" The union president also said that his members just want to get back to work - safely. And if that means customers must present a vaccine passport along with their theme park admission ticket, that's all right. (This is the union talking, not Disney)

The article also talks about the difficulty with practical enforcement of the order, noting that DeSantis is not going to want to start calling the police on businesses. There's a whole lot more about the hypocrisy of taking the position that private businesses should be free to do what they want - and then trying to control them with the EO.

There's quite a bit more - this is just a brief summary. I don't see any of this as political - it involves the legality of vaccine passports and WDW's possible role as stated by a CM union president.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I agree but down the line something IS going to have to give somewhere. People just aren’t going to mask or double mask and social distance forever just because some won’t get vaccinated or because there’s a new strain or whatever

it’ll be interesting to see between universal and Disney as well who changes what and when and who follows who.

This is really not directed at you GhostHost but that “ forever” word that gets thrown around is a pet peeve of mine. I have never heard one scientist or anyone with more knowledge then all of us in these boards say anything of the sort. Both sides of this Covid mess has thrown out scare tactics I guess. In the beginning it was the one side being accused of being “scared”. Now the other side I guess is scared because they may have to wear masks forever?
If by forever you mean the rest of this year possibly? Is that’s what’s meant when it’s said? Or into next year? Or literally forever?
That word bugs me so I am honestly asking what is meant when I see it posted here and it’s done a lot.

 

[Figgy1]

It quotes a legal expert at Georgetown University saying the EO is very likely unlawful and that even if the legislature passed such a law, it would be difficult and unwise to stop a company from doing a vaccine passport. "DeSantis, as a governor, does not have the power to sweep away private sector rights." Also, the EEOC, a federal agency, has said that requiring proof of vaccination as a condition of work is lawful under federal law.

According to the president of the union representing many WDW CMs (Unite Here! Local 362), "I think that he'd find that American labor law, in general, would disagree with [the order]. Employers can require drug testing and vaccination, just like a school system. *** If Disney says they believe in science and doctors and vaccines, and people getting it makes them safe, then why can't Disney require that?" The union president also said that his members just want to get back to work - safely. And if that means customers must present a vaccine passport along with their theme park admission ticket, that's all right. (This is the union talking, not Disney)

The article also talks about the difficulty with practical enforcement of the order, noting that DeSantis is not going to want to start calling the police on businesses. There's a whole lot more about the hypocrisy of taking the position that private businesses should be free to do what they want - and then trying to control them with the EO.

There's quite a bit more - this is just a brief summary. I don't see any of this as political - it involves the legality of vaccine passports and WDW's possible role as stated by a CM union president.

Thank you

 

[Parker in NYC]

There is a difference to opening up completely and allowing people walking through parks outdoors sans a mask.

I know that. You know that. I’m pretty sure most of the people on this thread know that. Well, the ones who haven’t been banned. If you go back and read what I wrote, that isn’t my point. You give people an inch and there’s goes the neighborhood.

 

[Parker in NYC]

This is really not directed at you GhostHost but that “ forever” word that gets thrown around us a pet peeve of mine. I have never heard one scientist or anyone with more knowledge then all of us in these boards say anything of the sort. Both sides of this Covid mess has thrown out scare tactics I guess. In the beginning it was the one side being accused of being “scared”. Now the other side I guess is scared because they may have to wear masks forever?
If by forever you mean the rest of this year possibly? Is that’s what’s meant when it’s said? Or into next year? Or literally forever?
That word bugs me so I am honestly asking what is meant when I see it posted here and it’s done a lot.

Because the word is a talking point. It’s all or nothing. Maybe because nuance isn’t something summed up in a cut and dry op-Ed on TV.

 

[correcaminos]

I know that. You know that. I’m pretty sure most of the people on this thread know that. Well, the ones who haven’t been banned. If you go back and read what I wrote, that isn’t my point. You give people an inch and there’s goes the neighborhood.

Well, to be fair, I do think you are oversimplifying and making a bigger deal out of this than you should. I have been very good at everything since day 1, but the outdoor mask relaxing is not 'giving an inch and there goes the neighborhood' idea to me at all. Why? Because I've seen it in action and in my own back yard. It's not that big of a deal to be upset with a theme park stating this. JMO though.

 

[DisneyCane]

It quotes a legal expert at Georgetown University saying the EO is very likely unlawful and that even if the legislature passed such a law, it would be difficult and unwise to stop a company from doing a vaccine passport. "DeSantis, as a governor, does not have the power to sweep away private sector rights." Also, the EEOC, a federal agency, has said that requiring proof of vaccination as a condition of work is lawful under federal law.

According to the president of the union representing many WDW CMs (Unite Here! Local 362), "I think that he'd find that American labor law, in general, would disagree with [the order]. Employers can require drug testing and vaccination, just like a school system. *** If Disney says they believe in science and doctors and vaccines, and people getting it makes them safe, then why can't Disney require that?" The union president also said that his members just want to get back to work - safely. And if that means customers must present a vaccine passport along with their theme park admission ticket, that's all right. (This is the union talking, not Disney)

The article also talks about the difficulty with practical enforcement of the order, noting that DeSantis is not going to want to start calling the police on businesses. There's a whole lot more about the hypocrisy of taking the position that private businesses should be free to do what they want - and then trying to control them with the EO.

There's quite a bit more - this is just a brief summary. I don't see any of this as political - it involves the legality of vaccine passports and WDW's possible role as stated by a CM union president.

What he can do (and did in the EO) is prevent State agencies from verifying the data necessary for a secure "vaccine passport" type system. If Disney really wanted to, I'm sure they'd win the right to say you have to show your CDC vaccination card or submit it to MDE in order to enter the parks. However, as has been pointed out before, it would be very easy to fake a card.

I think Desantis knows that outright banning private companies from requiring proof of vaccination wouldn't hold up in court if challenged. Executive orders have to be based on some kind of law or delegated authority. I disagree with the legal expert on the legislature part. If the State passed a law that banned vaccine passports, that would hold up. There's nothing unconstitutional (FL or US) about a law like that.

I honestly don't think any business would want to require them. The people who would feel safer if they were required are the people who are near 100% likely to be vaccinated themselves. A lot more potential customers would be turned off by the requirement than attracted by it.

For the union guy, your employees will be safe if they get vaccinated so encourage them to do so and work with pharmacies or the county health department to arrange vaccinations.

 

[Tom P.]

It quotes a legal expert at Georgetown University saying the EO is very likely unlawful and that even if the legislature passed such a law, it would be difficult and unwise to stop a company from doing a vaccine passport. "DeSantis, as a governor, does not have the power to sweep away private sector rights." Also, the EEOC, a federal agency, has said that requiring proof of vaccination as a condition of work is lawful under federal law.

According to the president of the union representing many WDW CMs (Unite Here! Local 362), "I think that he'd find that American labor law, in general, would disagree with [the order]. Employers can require drug testing and vaccination, just like a school system. *** If Disney says they believe in science and doctors and vaccines, and people getting it makes them safe, then why can't Disney require that?" The union president also said that his members just want to get back to work - safely. And if that means customers must present a vaccine passport along with their theme park admission ticket, that's all right. (This is the union talking, not Disney)

The article also talks about the difficulty with practical enforcement of the order, noting that DeSantis is not going to want to start calling the police on businesses. There's a whole lot more about the hypocrisy of taking the position that private businesses should be free to do what they want - and then trying to control them with the EO.

There's quite a bit more - this is just a brief summary. I don't see any of this as political - it involves the legality of vaccine passports and WDW's possible role as stated by a CM union president.

Disney does not want vaccine passports. I do not believe that they will make any attempt to implement them outside of their cruise ships. So I think as far as the Disney side of this conversation is concerned, the legal aspect of it is a moot point.

 

[Chi84]

Disney does not want vaccine passports. I do not believe that they will make any attempt to implement them outside of their cruise ships. So I think as far as the Disney side of this conversation is concerned, the legal aspect of it is a moot point.

I think the point is that it’s likely to be Disney’s decision and not the governor’s. With vaccinations going as well as they are, I suspect you’re right about Disney not implementing vaccine passports.

 

[Lilofan]

What he can do (and did in the EO) is prevent State agencies from verifying the data necessary for a secure "vaccine passport" type system. If Disney really wanted to, I'm sure they'd win the right to say you have to show your CDC vaccination card or submit it to MDE in order to enter the parks. However, as has been pointed out before, it would be very easy to fake a card.

I think Desantis knows that outright banning private companies from requiring proof of vaccination wouldn't hold up in court if challenged. Executive orders have to be based on some kind of law or delegated authority. I disagree with the legal expert on the legislature part. If the State passed a law that banned vaccine passports, that would hold up. There's nothing unconstitutional (FL or US) about a law like that.

I honestly don't think any business would want to require them. The people who would feel safer if they were required are the people who are near 100% likely to be vaccinated themselves. A lot more potential customers would be turned off by the requirement than attracted by it.

For the union guy, your employees will be safe if they get vaccinated so encourage them to do so and work with pharmacies or the county health department to arrange vaccinations.

In regards to any business to require vaccine passports, Rutgers Univ in NJ is requiring incoming students to show proof for the fall 2021 term. Another is Qantas Airlines that requires vaccine proof prior to flying.

 

[GoofGoof]

What he can do (and did in the EO) is prevent State agencies from verifying the data necessary for a secure "vaccine passport" type system. If Disney really wanted to, I'm sure they'd win the right to say you have to show your CDC vaccination card or submit it to MDE in order to enter the parks. However, as has been pointed out before, it would be very easy to fake a card.

I think Desantis knows that outright banning private companies from requiring proof of vaccination wouldn't hold up in court if challenged. Executive orders have to be based on some kind of law or delegated authority. I disagree with the legal expert on the legislature part. If the State passed a law that banned vaccine passports, that would hold up. There's nothing unconstitutional (FL or US) about a law like that.

I honestly don't think any business would want to require them. The people who would feel safer if they were required are the people who are near 100% likely to be vaccinated themselves. A lot more potential customers would be turned off by the requirement than attracted by it.

For the union guy, your employees will be safe if they get vaccinated so encourage them to do so and work with pharmacies or the county health department to arrange vaccinations.

So he knows it won’t hold up....but does it anyway, that’s the definition of a political stunt. Very disappointing.

 

[GoofGoof]

Disney does not want vaccine passports. I do not believe that they will make any attempt to implement them outside of their cruise ships. So I think as far as the Disney side of this conversation is concerned, the legal aspect of it is a moot point.

I think the point is that it’s likely to be Disney’s decision and not the governor’s. With vaccinations going as well as they are, I suspect you’re right about Disney not implementing vaccine passports.

I agree with both of you. It will ultimately be Disney’s decision despite the bogus executive order but Disney definitely does not want to have to implement vaccine passports. It would be a last resort if the vaccine rollout slows or fails to stop community spread.

 

[GhostHost1000]

This is really not directed at you GhostHost but that “ forever” word that gets thrown around us a pet peeve of mine. I have never heard one scientist or anyone with more knowledge then all of us in these boards say anything of the sort. Both sides of this Covid mess has thrown out scare tactics I guess. In the beginning it was the one side being accused of being “scared”. Now the other side I guess is scared because they may have to wear masks forever?
If by forever you mean the rest of this year possibly? Is that’s what’s meant when it’s said? Or into next year? Or literally forever?
That word bugs me so I am honestly asking what is meant when I see it posted here and it’s done a lot.

Forever as in longer than necessary

 

[CatesMom]

I agree with both of you. It will ultimately be Disney’s decision despite the bogus executive order but Disney definitely does not want to have to implement vaccine passports. It would be a last resort if the vaccine rollout slows or fails to stop community spread.

I am aware of a small church that is seeking legal advice whether it can limit in-person services to members who voluntarily show vaccine proof. So I'm sure Disney is also considering all of its options.

 

[ABQ]

I know that. You know that. I’m pretty sure most of the people on this thread know that. Well, the ones who haven’t been banned. If you go back and read what I wrote, that isn’t my point. You give people an inch and there’s goes the neighborhood.

I saw that people here were saying it would be the end of the world when WDW made the change to mask policy when taking pictures. Then later I heard that Universal and Sea World had that policy in place for a while now. Is it abused to death there? Not asking you specifically, as I don't assume you know, but just asking in general. As I have to think WDW is aware of how it's being either abused or not at those other parks. I know this isn't apples to apples with Dollywood's policy, but it does fit the give people and inch and they take a mile sort of thing. If the people in the parks are at all similar to the people on this forum, many won't take their masks off at all, even if allowed.

 

[havoc315]

WDW should have the right to require vaccine passports/proof
I believe vaccine passports would be good policy
But WDW won’t do it. Too controversial.

Disney may do it for cruises. Legal experts agree that DeSantis has no authority over cruise ships. Merely departing from a Florida port, a ship flying a foreign flag and primarily sailing in international waters... a state governor doesn’t have that type of authority.

Anyway... vaccine passports could speed up the return to normalcy. If they hadn’t become so politically charged, I could see them required by summer and being a passport to normalcy.