Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

So, you think everything safe to reopen right now? This is why I sometimes question my love of Disney Parks (and Dollywood). I just don’t agree with so many of the other guests.

There is a difference to opening up completely and allowing people walking through parks outdoors sans a mask.

 

[seascape]

Numbers are out - there were 35 new reported deaths.

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I am happy the cases for the last 7 days are down 1,882. However, the number of tests were way down and the percentage of positive results were up. Time will tell if we are at the start of the drop or if we have to wait a few more days. Lets hope it's the former and cases plummet. If Florida could get to an average of 1,656 it would mean 7.7 cases per 100,000, so it's just not believable that that number is correct for today.

 

[havoc315]

People who were vaccinated by a state agency would be able to request their vaccination record from the state and the state would have to provide it within a designated time period. It’s one of the few times HIPAA actually would apply. If they were vaccinated by a pharmacy instead of a state agency, the pharmacy would have to provide the information.

Good point -- The individual is still entitled to obtain their own record.

Still difficult to enforce in many workplaces.

 

[Mark52479]

I am happy the cases for the last 7 days are down 1,882. However, the number of tests were way down and the percentage of positive results were up. Time will tell if we are at the start of the drop or if we have to wait a few more days. Lets hope it's the former and cases plummet. If Florida could get to an average of 1,656 it would mean 7.7 cases per 100,000, so it's just not believable that that number is correct for today.

Everyone was talking about positivity rare for the past couple of months. But what happens when only those with symptoms go and get tested?

I would imagine at some point it will get to just that. Wouldnt we then be seeing crazy high positivity rates? If 10 people have symptoms and all 10 went to get tested and all 10 had the virus...........

I am just wondering how that would work out.

 

[DCBaker]

I am happy the cases for the last 7 days are down 1,882. However, the number of tests were way down and the percentage of positive results were up. Time will tell if we are at the start of the drop or if we have to wait a few more days. Lets hope it's the former and cases plummet. If Florida could get to an average of 1,656 it would mean 7.7 cases per 100,000, so it's just not believable that that number is correct for today.

Something to keep in mind - there was severe weather across the state yesterday that closed testing and vaccination sites.

 

[Mark52479]

Something to keep in mind - there was severe weather across the state yesterday that closed testing and vaccination sites.

Yeah here in FL it was crazy yesterday. We had hail, 70mph winds. Most sites were closed.

 

[GoofGoof]

Might be easy in some workplaces, but not so easy in many.
Not like supervisors always have eyes on every employee.

And Florida still makes it hard to enforce -- I believe the EO prohibits asking about someone's vaccine status (not sure if the EO pertains to employers), and the state is prohibited from providing any documentation that would confirm status. So employees would lack any way to prove they are vaccinated beyond their white CDC card, and if they were to lose the card, the State won't provide any confirmation that they were vaccinated. (so every employee could say they were vaccinated but they lost their card.... and the employer would have no way to confirm it).

The EO doesn‘t prohibit anyone from asking about vaccination status. It prohibits businesses from requiring customers to show proof of vaccination to be admitted. Totally different thing. An EO cannot stop me from voluntarily sharing something about my medical history to my employer. I have every right t9 share what I want and nobody else is forced to share anything. People are voluntarily sharing to gain a benefit. Simple, easy.

If an employer decides its uninterested in implementing this or it’s too difficult to enforce that’s fine too, then everyone keeps wearing masks and employees who are vaccinated can decide if they want to work there or somewhere else.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Everyone was talking about positivity rare for the past couple of months. But what happens when only those with symptoms go and get tested?

Positivity rate has always been a flawed statistic since the people who are tested are self-selecting (or other-deselected when told not to get a test unless you have symptoms).

That's why many here have always looked to other stats, such as hospitalization and deaths.

Tho, the positivity rate hasn't been too far off. In general, we see the hospitalization and death rates conform to positivity rate two to four weeks later, as is expected.

In the end, the timing of 'when things get back to normal' is when there are very few deaths and hospitalizations. Then, contact tracing can theoretically contain new cases.

 

[GoofGoof]

Everyone was talking about positivity rare for the past couple of months. But what happens when only those with symptoms go and get tested?

I would imagine at some point it will get to just that. Wouldnt we then be seeing crazy high positivity rates? If 10 people have symptoms and all 10 went to get tested and all 10 had the virus...........

I am just wondering how that would work out.

Right now what is driving positivity rates down are people getting tested regularly for work and also people getting tested due to exposure. Now the CDC has already modified the quarantine rules to say if you are vaccinated and come in contact with someone who is positive you no longer have to quarantine. I would assume as time goes on many employers who require regular testing for Covid will start to exempt people who have been vaccinated already. So the number of negative tests will shrink.

 

[Mark52479]

Positivity rate has always been a flawed statistic since the people who are tested are self-selecting (or other-deselected when told not to get a test unless you have symptoms).

That's why many here have always looked to other stats, such as hospitalization and deaths.

Tho, the positivity rate hasn't been too far off. In general, we see the hospitalization and death rates conform to positivity rate two to four weeks later, as is expected.

In the end, the timing of 'when things get back to normal' is when there are very few deaths and hospitalizations. Then, contact tracing can theoretically contain new cases.

Makes sense

 

[havoc315]

Positivity rate has always been a flawed statistic since the people who are tested are self-selecting (or other-deselected when told not to get a test unless you have symptoms).

That's why many here have always looked to other stats, such as hospitalization and deaths.

Tho, the positivity rate hasn't been too far off. In general, we see the hospitalization and death rates conform to positivity rate two to four weeks later, as is expected.

In the end, the timing of 'when things get back to normal' is when there are very few deaths and hospitalizations. Then, contact tracing can theoretically contain new cases.

There is no 1 perfect stat for comparison. Positivity rate is a good indicator but you are correct that it is somewhat self-selecting.
Basically, I wouldn't look at positivity rate and say a State with a 3.2% rate is better than a State with a 3.6% rate. There are just too many factors that go into who is getting tested, to compare with any precision.

That said.... If a state has a positivity rate going up --- that's bad. If positivity rate is going down -- that's good. And a positivity rate of 15-20%+ is a real major flashing lights warning sign.

I do find hospitalization rate is the best and most telling trackable statistic, but it does lag infections. (everything lags.... tests lag the least, but still lag. Deaths lag the most, sometimes by a lot).

 

[disneygeek90]

Right now what is driving positivity rates down are people getting tested regularly for work and also people getting tested due to exposure. Now the CDC has already modified the quarantine rules to say if you are vaccinated and come in contact with someone who is positive you no longer have to quarantine. I would assume as time goes on many employers who require regular testing for Covid will start to exempt people who have been vaccinated already. So the number of negative tests will shrink.

This is obviously an exception but my mom has been fully vaccinated since January and is still receiving a test every Monday at work due to working at a retirement home.

 

[GoofGoof]

This is obviously an exception but my mom has been fully vaccinated since January and is still receiving a test every Monday at work due to working at a retirement home.

I think a lot of places are still doing that in the long term care and medical fields in particular. Once we reach a level of vaccination that is high and community spread much lower I think we may see some places start to ease off of that requirement. LT care will probably be among the last to stop the practice since the patients are extremely vulnerable.

 

[seascape]

The weather may have been bad in Florida yesterday but remember last Sunday was Easter Sunday so testing was down then too. Anyway, besides Florida NJ had a good day too. Easter Sunday there were 3,284 cases and yesterday NJ had 2,079 a drop of 1,205.

 

[GoofGoof]

The weather may have been bad in Florida yesterday but remember last Sunday was Easter Sunday so testing was down then too. Anyway, besides Florida NJ had a good day too. Easter Sunday there were 3,284 cases and yesterday NJ had 2,079 a drop of 1,205.

I wouldn’t pay too much attention to single days. 7 day averages are a better indication of trends. In FL cases were down over 50% vs the previous Sunday but testing was down over 60%. I would wait to see what happens in the next few days.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[DCBaker]

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Patcheslee]

There is no 1 perfect stat for comparison. Positivity rate is a good indicator but you are correct that it is somewhat self-selecting.
Basically, I wouldn't look at positivity rate and say a State with a 3.2% rate is better than a State with a 3.6% rate. There are just too many factors that go into who is getting tested, to compare with any precision.

That said.... If a state has a positivity rate going up --- that's bad. If positivity rate is going down -- that's good. And a positivity rate of 15-20%+ is a real major flashing lights warning sign.

I do find hospitalization rate is the best and most telling trackable statistic, but it does lag infections. (everything lags.... tests lag the least, but still lag. Deaths lag the most, sometimes by a lot).

Would a metric of tests administered per 100k help know if there is enough testing going on?
Too many variables to account for.

 

[Chi84]

The EO doesn‘t prohibit anyone from asking about vaccination status. It prohibits businesses from requiring customers to show proof of vaccination to be admitted. Totally different thing. An EO cannot stop me from voluntarily sharing something about my medical history to my employer. I have every right t9 share what I want and nobody else is forced to share anything. People are voluntarily sharing to gain a benefit. Simple, easy.

If an employer decides its uninterested in implementing this or it’s too difficult to enforce that’s fine too, then everyone keeps wearing masks and employees who are vaccinated can decide if they want to work there or somewhere else.

The Palm Beach Post

www.palmbeachpost.com

Interesting article about the EO - briefly mentions Disney.