Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GhostHost1000]

We will see. Disney did wait 6 weeks to open last Summer so they won’t necessarily change right away if Universal does. They have overlords in CA to answer to. Even though Universal’s parent is in Philly they seem to be way less hands on with the parks. Disney seems to want to keep the rules the same in CA and FL.

On a positive note FL is opening vaccines to the general public starting April 5. That means Disney can facilitate CM vaccinations pretty soon. In order to reopen this past Summer Disney made an agreement with the unions on many of the safety protocols. Once CMs are vaccinated that removes one of the obstacles to relaxing safety protocols. Entertainment is also more possible as performers who have to be in close proximity to each other can all be vaccinated now. It also helps with the “sense of safety” if guests know the CMs they interact with will be much less likely to pass the virus to them.

I am actually pretty optimistic that by early Summer we will see the impact of the vaccines and start to see more significant relaxing of covid restrictions everywhere and specifically at WDW. The remaining ride vehicle distancing needs to go first and in conjunction some of the entertainment and people eating shows need to come back. Then you can remove park capacity limits and ramp up business. I still think masks are last to go since you can remove other restrictions and still falll back on masks as the remaining protocol similar to airlines no longer leaving empty seats but still requiring masks. Once the CDC changes their guidelines to say people who have been vaccinated no longer need to wear a mask then Disney will probably change their policy. That assumes the vast majority of people take the vaccine. I can’t see us all wearing masks for an extended period of time once most people are vaccinated. I think that time is coming sooner than some people are thinking.

Agreed and well put. I really hope you are right.

 

[Figgy1]

In my own experience, I find I feel safer at a restaurant, though in my area they are still limited to just 25% indoor capacity, than I do going to the supermarket. At least in the restaurant, people tend to stay within their own area. One way isles in a supermarket are a dubious idea at best and then by the time you get to the checkout, self serve or not, everyone packs in , touches the same surfaces, etc... Rubbing elbows all the while.

As with Disney rope drop is your friend Last week I hit 3 stores in a row without another person in site except employees

 

[Figgy1]

We did delivery, then curbside pickup and had problems with both. It's just the two of us, so one time we ordered two individual russet potatoes and found out when we got home that they had loaded two 10-pound bags into the trunk. Luckily, my MIL makes a really good potato soup.

I usually buy potatoes 20 pounds at a time

 

[havoc315]

So this article about recommendations for children... If these recommendations are followed, it would suggest you shouldn’t expect massive WDW normalization for the rest of this year:

What to do if you're vaccinated but your kids aren't — Dr. Wen's advice | CNN

While many parents can breathe a sigh of relief with their own vaccinations, it may be hard to feel free as long as their children are unvaccinated. CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen weighs in.

www.cnn.com

Basically, the recommendation is that even if all adults are vaccinated, when mixing families with unvaccinated kids, continue masking and social distancing, avoid indoor restaurants, etc.

Now, I can imagine that if case counts get super low, the lack of children vaccination won’t prevent normalization. If there are under 1,000 cases per day in the US (for example), the risk to even unvaccinated people would be so low that mitigation may be dropped even as to kids.

But if Disney is following these types of recommendations, then don’t expect too much normalization for the rest of the year. (Yes, some capacity increase.. some entertainment.. but reduced capacity, social distancing, and masks, until young kids can get vaccinated in late 2021 or early 2022)

 

[Turtlekrawl]

This just in...India discovers a "double mutant" strain.

India records spike in Covid-19 cases as several variants detected, prompting fears of a second wave | CNN

India on Thursday recorded 53,476 new Covid-19 cases, marking the highest single-day rise in cases since October 23, according to a CNN tally of figures from the Indian Ministry of Health.

www.cnn.com

UGH.

Get used to it. There will be plenty more reports like this in the coming months. As others have said, it’s no problem unless previously vaccinated/infected people are getting serious disease and dying. And even if that happens, better antivirals and antibody therapies are coming...

 

[mattpeto]

Most didn't and kept ships with people dying hanging out in the water. Some politicians didn't want them because it'd make the numbers of infected and dead look bad (this was when the numbers were in the hundreds, not the tens of thousands).

But, eventually, they did find harbor and medical aid after shaming the pols for their lack of humanitarianism.

The Conditional Restrictions tell the cruise line to work out ahead of time with whatever jurisdictions who's going to take them in and what protocols are in place if there's a sick boat.

So, if FL wants cruise money tourism, it'll have to make a deal in which they designate where a sick boat would dock and how the sick will get treated. Probably with the cruise line paying in advance for that perk. And to spell out the protocols if that happens.

Basically, the CDC is saying "no more sick boats at sea with people dying and no where to go."

How outrageous!!

Just wanted to say thank you for explaining the "conditional restrictions". Before I read your posts on the subject, I was pretty confused.

 

[GoofGoof]

So this article about recommendations for children... If these recommendations are followed, it would suggest you shouldn’t expect massive WDW normalization for the rest of this year:

What to do if you're vaccinated but your kids aren't — Dr. Wen's advice | CNN

While many parents can breathe a sigh of relief with their own vaccinations, it may be hard to feel free as long as their children are unvaccinated. CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen weighs in.

www.cnn.com

Basically, the recommendation is that even if all adults are vaccinated, when mixing families with unvaccinated kids, continue masking and social distancing, avoid indoor restaurants, etc.

Now, I can imagine that if case counts get super low, the lack of children vaccination won’t prevent normalization. If there are under 1,000 cases per day in the US (for example), the risk to even unvaccinated people would be so low that mitigation may be dropped even as to kids.

But if Disney is following these types of recommendations, then don’t expect too much normalization for the rest of the year. (Yes, some capacity increase.. some entertainment.. but reduced capacity, social distancing, and masks, until young kids can get vaccinated in late 2021 or early 2022)

I think you are missing a zero. 1,000 cases a day nationally would be 0.3 cases per 100,000 people. Even Fauci earlier this month said that a reasonable estimate for reducing restrictions and getting rid of masks would be under 10,000 cases a day. 1,000 would be great, but there will likely be a lot of movement before that level.

Dr. Fauci Says This Is When We Can Get Rid of COVID Restrictions

Dr. Fauci set the number of daily new cases that we need to get below before COVID restrictions can be lifted and normal life can resume.

bestlifeonline.com

 

[jeanericuser001]

Whether you are 21 or not its shots for everyone.

 

[seascape]

Normally I would be screaming at those in New York if I saw they were up to 42 cases per 100,000. However, that numbers makes no sense. NY report over 20,000 cases yesterday but is averaging 8,192 cases a day even with that number so I will ignore it for now. But, as I expected after seeing Florida's numbers yesterday they increased to 22. NJ stayed at 47. I can't even consider the national number of because of NY. The NY Times reported 79,440 new cases yesterday and the NY number of 20,184 is 25.4% of that. It's just wrong. 11 states are now in single digits and 25 in the 10's. Those numbers are okay.

 

[havoc315]

I think you are missing a zero. 1,000 cases a day nationally would be 0.3 cases per 100,000 people. Even Fauci earlier this month said that a reasonable estimate for reducing restrictions and getting rid of masks would be under 10,000 cases a day. 1,000 would be great, but there will likely be a lot of movement before that level.

Dr. Fauci Says This Is When We Can Get Rid of COVID Restrictions

Dr. Fauci set the number of daily new cases that we need to get below before COVID restrictions can be lifted and normal life can resume.

bestlifeonline.com

Again, 1,000 was just a demonstrative example. The “real number” is likely related to the degree of testing (you still need to be doing enough testing to know there is some accuracy in the numbers), regionality (if you have only 3,000 cases nationally, but 1,000 of them are in Buena Vista florida.. etc). The degree of deaths (10,000 cases and 10 deaths per day is different than 5,000 cases and 500 deaths per day).

Point is simply.. IF and WHEN case counts get extremely low, mitigation recommendations may go away without vaccinating kids. On the other hand, it remains possible that cases remain high enough, that mitigation recommendations continue until after we vaccinate kids.

 

[havoc315]

Normally I would be screaming at those in New York if I saw they were up to 42 cases per 100,000. However, that numbers makes no sense. NY report over 20,000 cases yesterday but is averaging 8,192 cases a day even with that number so I will ignore it for now. But, as I expected after seeing Florida's numbers yesterday they increased to 22. NJ stayed at 47. I can't even consider the national number of because of NY. The NY Times reported 79,440 new cases yesterday and the NY number of 20,184 is 25.4% of that. It's just wrong. 11 states are now in single digits and 25 in the 10's. Those numbers are okay.

New York and the surrounding region is having a major spike due to the B.1526 Variant. Hopefully it doesn’t spike to the rest of the country, and gets cut off by the vaccination efforts.

 

[DisneyCane]

In my own experience, I find I feel safer at a restaurant, though in my area they are still limited to just 25% indoor capacity, than I do going to the supermarket. At least in the restaurant, people tend to stay within their own area. One way isles in a supermarket are a dubious idea at best and then by the time you get to the checkout, self serve or not, everyone packs in , touches the same surfaces, etc... Rubbing elbows all the while.

It's good that you feel safer at a restaurant than at a supermarket however a supermarket would be relatively low risk even with no mitigation measures. You don't spend very much time near somebody else even in a long checkout line or wait at the deli counter.

Exposure time is a key aspect to transmission. Unless somebody coughs in your face, passing an infected person in aisle 12 for 5 seconds is an extremely low risk situation unless you are immunocompromised.

A restaurant at 25% capacity will also be a very low risk because you are so far away from other parties. I just got back from Las Vegas and I didn't have a second thought eating in a booth where the adjoining booth was occupied with just useless plexiglass dividing us but that's me.

 

[DisneyCane]

Again, 1,000 was just a demonstrative example. The “real number” is likely related to the degree of testing (you still need to be doing enough testing to know there is some accuracy in the numbers), regionality (if you have only 3,000 cases nationally, but 1,000 of them are in Buena Vista florida.. etc). The degree of deaths (10,000 cases and 10 deaths per day is different than 5,000 cases and 500 deaths per day).

Point is simply.. IF and WHEN case counts get extremely low, mitigation recommendations may go away without vaccinating kids. On the other hand, it remains possible that cases remain high enough, that mitigation recommendations continue until after we vaccinate kids.

Kids are at practically zero risk from COVID. If the adult population is 70% vaccinated they will be at even lower risk because there will be far fewer infected adults to potentially infect the kids.

Mitigation measures should not continue just because kids can't be vaccinated.

 

[danlb_2000]

Kids are at practically zero risk from COVID. If the adult population is 70% vaccinated they will be at even lower risk because there will be far fewer infected adults to potentially infect the kids.

Mitigation measures should not continue just because kids can't be vaccinated.

Some recent studies may be casting some doubt on that.

 

[GoofGoof]

Again, 1,000 was just a demonstrative example. The “real number” is likely related to the degree of testing (you still need to be doing enough testing to know there is some accuracy in the numbers), regionality (if you have only 3,000 cases nationally, but 1,000 of them are in Buena Vista florida.. etc). The degree of deaths (10,000 cases and 10 deaths per day is different than 5,000 cases and 500 deaths per day).

Point is simply.. IF and WHEN case counts get extremely low, mitigation recommendations may go away without vaccinating kids. On the other hand, it remains possible that cases remain high enough, that mitigation recommendations continue until after we vaccinate kids.

I agree there will be a level we need to get to before all mitigation measures go away. My only point is that 1,000 is not likely going to be that number. Under 10,000 cases per day nationally is about 3 cases per 100,000 people. If we take this to the FL level since we are all used to seeing the FL numbers every day that’s the FL equivalent of under 650 cases a day on average. If we went down to 1,000 cases a day nationally that would be the FL equivalent of 65 cases a day. I can tell you with nearly 100% certainty that if we get below 650 cases a day on average in FL most if not all restrictions will be lifted at almost every business and they certainly won’t wait until we are down to under 65.

 

[Chi84]

I think you are missing a zero. 1,000 cases a day nationally would be 0.3 cases per 100,000 people. Even Fauci earlier this month said that a reasonable estimate for reducing restrictions and getting rid of masks would be under 10,000 cases a day. 1,000 would be great, but there will likely be a lot of movement before that level.

Dr. Fauci Says This Is When We Can Get Rid of COVID Restrictions

Dr. Fauci set the number of daily new cases that we need to get below before COVID restrictions can be lifted and normal life can resume.

bestlifeonline.com

The CNN article about what to do if you are vaccinated and your kids aren't is an interesting example of the shift away from what businesses should do to keep people safe toward what individuals should do to keep themselves safe. The article is not focused on what restrictions restaurants, amusement parks or airlines should continue, but on how people should take those restrictions into consideration in making their own decisions about what is safe. It may seem like a subtle distinction, but it takes into account the reality that mitigation measures won't continue solely based on whether children, who are at low risk, can be vaccinated.

 

[Figgy1]

Some recent studies may be casting some doubt on that.

I doubt it myself. Know a kid who is symptomatic, getting tested today

 

[GoofGoof]

Kids are at practically zero risk from COVID. If the adult population is 70% vaccinated they will be at even lower risk because there will be far fewer infected adults to potentially infect the kids.

Mitigation measures should not continue just because kids can't be vaccinated.

I agree with the conclusion in theory. We are all assuming that kids are less likely to get sick and less likely to spread COvid. There is some science to back that up and it’s part of why schools have been open while other things were not. I think if we get 70% of adults vaccinated it will be a real world test of that theory. If kids aren’t good carriers of Covid then cases will flatline. If they are better than suspected then we may see the decline stall and then we need to either get more adults vaccinated or get kids done. At least 12+ should be eligible soon so it’s only younger kids. It’s conceivable that cases drop low enough that under 12 don’t matter but that’s still 50M people or 15% of the population so we will know one way or the other if they are a problem.

Here‘s some of the science behind why the very young aren’t likely to be good carriers of the virus:

Navigating COVID-19

Get details about COVID-19 and resources to help with everything from care at home to testing, vaccines, mental health resources, and more.

www.chop.edu

 

[havoc315]

I agree there will be a level we need to get to before all mitigation measures go away. My only point is that 1,000 is not likely going to be that number. Under 10,000 cases per day nationally is about 3 cases per 100,000 people. If we take this to the FL level since we are all used to seeing the FL numbers every day that’s the FL equivalent of under 650 cases a day on average. If we went down to 1,000 cases a day nationally that would be the FL equivalent of 65 cases a day. I can tell you with nearly 100% certainty that if we get below 650 cases a day on average in FL most if not all restrictions will be lifted at almost every business and they certainly won’t wait until we are down to under 65.

If Florida is at 650 per day, I’m sure most businesses will drop voluntary mitigation.

But I don’t know 1 way or another if Disney would drop mitigation at that number.

 

[Creathir]

I doubt it myself. Know a kid who is symptomatic, getting tested today

Keep in mind, with statistics, there are always outliers.
Lung cancers are not common in children, yet there are occasionally some which develop them.

Statistically speaking, COVID-19 has proven to be not dangerous for children.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

Look at the deaths by age. It tells you all you need to know.