Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

So does this data means that seniors are close to some form of herd immunity?

Only if you can keep them from interacting with unvaccinated people who may be carrying the virus, such as at the supermarket.

So... no.

Also, the sign of herd immunity is not the percentage who've had shots, it's seeing the rate of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths go significantly down, and stay significantly down.

The current trend is that the falling rates from the last spike is slowing down and is still higher now than it was in the Summer, when we all agreed that is was really bad back then. It's that way now.... just not as bad as it was for the past two months.

And, this is a *novel* coronavirus. We don't know if it takes 60% or 70% or 80% saturation of immunized to reach herd immunity.

While percentage of those jabbed rising is hopeful, look to the stats of hospitalizations and deaths to see if it's *working*.

 

[Kevin_W]

While percentage of those jabbed rising is hopeful, look to the stats of hospitalizations and deaths to see if it's *working*.

In my state, hospitalizations are down 40% in the past 2 weeks alone and down 80% in the past 2 months. In the last few days, we've finally dropped below where we were in May and July - August. That's been the most encouraging local news and I hope in continues.

 

[GoofGoof]

I really think that when Chapek said masks would continue throughout 2021, he was providing the least optimistic scenario so as to manage the expectations of people who book trips now. They don't want a ton of people booking trips for the fall now, expecting that masks will be gone, and then cancel later when masks are still required.

However, I believe Disney will look carefully at what's happening in the country and will adjust accordingly. If enough people get vaccinated that case numbers are low enough for society as a whole to be doing away with masks in most situations, Disney will do away with them to. I think Disney really hopes to be rid of masks in time for the 50th anniversary.

Keep in mind too that his comments were made on an earnings call. The target audience for that call is analysts, investors and anyone looking at financial statements not theme park fans. When he says end of 2021 that means 9/30/21 which is the end of Disney’s fiscal year not 12/31/21. When he says he expects masks to be gone by early in 2022 that starts 10/1/21. Not a big change, but 3 months sooner than someone thinking in terms of calendar years. He also left the door open for sooner when he said:

“But I believe that Dr. Fauci said earlier today that, he hopes that there's vaccines for everyone who wants them by April this year. If that happens that is a game changer. And that could accelerate our expectations and give people the confidence that they need to come back to the parks”

Now that the Biden administration confirmed that we will have enough vaccine for all adults by mid-May that pretty much confirms that vaccines will be open for the general public by April so the timeline could/should be accelerated. Does that mean relaxing of restrictions sometime this Summer? Its a decent possibility. I think it’s a safer bet that things will be pretty relaxed by the 50th on 10/1.

 

[GoofGoof]

Only if you can keep them from interacting with unvaccinated people who may be carrying the virus, such as at the supermarket.

So... no.

Also, the sign of herd immunity is not the percentage who've had shots, it's seeing the rate of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths go significantly down, and stay significantly down.

The current trend is that the falling rates from the last spike is slowing down and is still higher now than it was in the Summer, when we all agreed that is was really bad back then. It's that way now.... just not as bad as it was for the past two months.

And, this is a *novel* coronavirus. We don't know if it takes 60% or 70% or 80% saturation of immunized to reach herd immunity.

While percentage of those jabbed rising is hopeful, look to the stats of hospitalizations and deaths to see if it's *working*.

In my state, hospitalizations are down 40% in the past 2 weeks alone and down 80% in the past 2 months. In the last few days, we've finally dropped below where we were in May and July - August. That's been the most encouraging local news and I hope in continues.

I think the key with herd immunity is the cases continue downward. There may be small short term moves up but the longer term trend is downward. We have had several periods of downturn in cases only to see them reverse out but if we reach real herd immunity it should be one directional. One of the epidemiologists from the CDC said their agency is estimating 60% immune to reach herd immunity. We shall see what the real number needs to be.

 

[OrlandoRising]

However, I believe Disney will look carefully at what's happening in the country and will adjust accordingly. If enough people get vaccinated that case numbers are low enough for society as a whole to be doing away with masks in most situations, Disney will do away with them too. I think Disney really hopes to be rid of masks in time for the 50th anniversary.

Now that the Biden administration confirmed that we will have enough vaccine for all adults by mid-May that pretty much confirms that vaccines will be open for the general public by April so the timeline could/should be accelerated. Does that mean relaxing of restrictions sometime this Summer? Its a decent possibility. I think it’s a safer bet that things will be pretty relaxed by the 50th on 10/1.

Disney will adhere to whatever CDC guidelines are in place on that date, no matter what fans' or executives' hopes may be.

It's far more important for their business that they make guests feel safe, than do away with masks, even if only slightly prematurely, for any reason. Considering their actions up to this point in the pandemic, I wouldn't expect Disney to risk any sort of blowback by getting ahead of the CDC in terms of lifting restrictions.

And while there is plenty of reason to be optimistic at the moment, keep in mind that having enough vaccines for all adults by mid-May is very different than having administered vaccines for those adults.

 

[FeelsSoGoodToBeBad]

I'm not a lawyer, but that would be my take. Sailed on March 7-14 and was diagnosed May 1? That seems like an awfully long incubation.

I thought the same...

 

[Touchdown]

Disney will adhere to whatever CDC guidelines are in place on that date, no matter what fans' or executives' hopes may be.
.

Well that’s not technically true, the CDC is recommending that even vaccinated people avoid gathering in medium to large crowds. I’m pretty sure a theme park midway counts as a medium to large crowd. Also last time I checked, Disney isn’t blocking non Florida residents, and the cdc is recommending no leisure travel crossing state lines even for vaccinated people. They are all ready picking and choosing guidelines. They will drop restrictions so long as a majority of their customers still buy into the illusion that going to WDW is completely safe.

 

[GoofGoof]

Disney will adhere to whatever CDC guidelines are in place on that date, no matter what fans' or executives' hopes may be.

It's far more important for their business that they make guests feel safe, than do away with masks, even if only slightly prematurely, for any reason. Considering their actions up to this point in the pandemic, I wouldn't expect Disney to risk any sort of blowback by getting ahead of the CDC in terms of lifting restrictions.

And while there is plenty of reason to be optimistic at the moment, keep in mind that having enough vaccines for all adults by mid-May is very different than having administered vaccines for those adults.

Not sure what part of what I said was implying that they would not follow CDC guidelines. Do we know when CDC guidelines will no longer recommend that masks are required everywhere? Is it not possible that it could be by 10/1 or sooner?

Currently we have about 24M doses of vaccine delivered but unused. At our current pace of 2.1M doses administered a day that‘s around 11 days worth of doses. Due to the 28 day spacing for Moderna if we have enough doses for everyone by Mid-May anyone who wants one should be done by mid to end of June at the latest. Whether we actually get enough people to take the vaccine is a bigger issue, but the time it takes to administer is not as big a factor as it was at the start.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well that’s not technically true, the CDC is recommending that even vaccinated people avoid gathering in medium to large crowds. I’m pretty sure a theme park midway counts as a medium to large crowd. Also last time I checked, Disney isn’t blocking non Florida residents, and the cdc is recommending no leisure travel crossing state lines even for vaccinated people. They are spreading picking and choosing guidelines. They will drop restrictions so long as a majority of their customers still buy into the illusion that going to WDW is completely safe.

They are following the guideline right now on masks but even Fauci said recently that once the prelim studies on transmission from people who are vaccinated are confirmed and verified the CDC would likely also relax the mask requirements for those who are vaccinated since vaccinated people are not a high risk to spread Covid. How does a business like Disney enforce a mask rule only on the unvaccinated? Not possible. What they could do is once a large enough number of adults are vaccinated (60-70-80%) they could change the rule to masks are recommended for anyone who is not vaccinated and/or high risk as a purely legal CYA.

I honestly think the vast majority of people will feel comfortable going to WDW without masks or distancing once they are vaccinated and once cases drop significantly. If for whatever reason the cases don’t drop then that could cause issues with guest confidence but they can always wait to remove restrictions if that is the case.

 

[_caleb]

Okay, so, reading the last several pages of this thread makes me seriously ask.... have people really not been seeing their families for a year? I mean, that's really a thing that's happening beyond some government recommendation document? I find that unfathomable. Everyone has to do what's best for them and make their own risk assessment, I suppose. But my kids have interacted with their grandparents as normal. Taking reasonable precautions in public is one thing, but I'm not avoiding my family because of a virus.

Did you think everyone has been blowing off the recommendations the way you have? Did you just think people were upset about restrictions for no reason, since everyone was actually just carrying on as though we weren’t in a pandemic?

I can’t fathom that a grown adult would ask—a year into a global health crisis that had killed over 2.6 million people—if others have been following public health recommendations.

Yes, many of us have been following the guidelines. I have not seen my family in over a year due to travel restrictions and CDC guidance.

This is why we’re upset with people like you. We’ve done the responsible thing to prevent the spread of the virus and to protect others, while watching others do as they please. All those visits to Grandma’s are why so many people have gotten sick and died, and why the economy is broken.

 

[Incomudro]

Okay, so, reading the last several pages of this thread makes me seriously ask.... have people really not been seeing their families for a year? I mean, that's really a thing that's happening beyond some government recommendation document? I find that unfathomable. Everyone has to do what's best for them and make their own risk assessment, I suppose. But my kids have interacted with their grandparents as normal. Taking reasonable precautions in public is one thing, but I'm not avoiding my family because of a virus.

My dad passed away in 1982, and my mother passed some 15 years ago.
My sister lives in Florida, and I in NJ.
She comes up for Christmas Eve., a big gathering at our Uncle Bob's house.
that was canceled this year.
Most of the time, my family consists of my wife and twin 19 year old sons - and we all live together.
Extended to that are my wife's parents, their son, his wife (the former anti vaxer) and their kids - 15 years old or so.
We avoided seeing them as much as possible, but my mother and father in law were around their son, daughter in law, and the kids in a short amount of time - much to my wife's horror.

 

[Giss Neric]

No one can ask you for proof of vaccination so a person could claim to be vaccinated just so they could get away without wearing a mask.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

No one can ask you for proof of vaccination so a person could claim to be vaccinated just so they could get away without wearing a mask.

Says who?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Thanks! I think we've worked it out. I had to suggest we could drop the forms off, they can fill it out at their leisure, and we can pick them up either late today or first thing Monday morning.

I'll be slightly anxious until they are in my hand lol.

But what a relief it will be to know I'm at least partially protected a few days after Monday (assuming this all works out.)

Ended up getting our first doses this morning.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Did you think everyone has been blowing off the recommendations the way you have? Did you just think people were upset about restrictions for no reason, since everyone was actually just carrying on as though we weren’t in a pandemic?

I can’t fathom that a grown adult would ask—a year into a global health crisis that had killed over 2.6 million people—if others have been following public health recommendations.

Yes, many of us have been following the guidelines. I have not seen my family in over a year due to travel restrictions and CDC guidance.

This is why we’re upset with people like you. We’ve done the responsible thing to prevent the spread of the virus and to protect others, while watching others do as they please. All those visits to Grandma’s are why so many people have gotten sick and died, and why the economy is broken.

Yeah... this sums up my feelings. It’s frustrating that I’ve spent a year following cdc recommendations and not going to events, not traveling, etc. and others are asking if anyone is actually following CDC recommendations.

Yes. Some of us are.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Did you think everyone has been blowing off the recommendations the way you have? Did you just think people were upset about restrictions for no reason, since everyone was actually just carrying on as though we weren’t in a pandemic?

I can’t fathom that a grown adult would ask—a year into a global health crisis that had killed over 2.6 million people—if others have been following public health recommendations.

Yes, many of us have been following the guidelines. I have not seen my family in over a year due to travel restrictions and CDC guidance.

This is why we’re upset with people like you. We’ve done the responsible thing to prevent the spread of the virus and to protect others, while watching others do as they please. All those visits to Grandma’s are why so many people have gotten sick and died, and why the economy is broken.

Yeah... this sums up my feelings. It’s frustrating that I’ve spent a year following cdc recommendations and not going to events, not traveling, etc. and others are asking if anyone is actually following CDC recommendations.

Yes. Some of us are.

Agreed. And now they’re dropping mask mandates all over the place at exactly the wrong time.

 

[Patcheslee]

Okay, so, reading the last several pages of this thread makes me seriously ask.... have people really not been seeing their families for a year? I mean, that's really a thing that's happening beyond some government recommendation document? I find that unfathomable. Everyone has to do what's best for them and make their own risk assessment, I suppose. But my kids have interacted with their grandparents as normal. Taking reasonable precautions in public is one thing, but I'm not avoiding my family because of a virus.

My mom and step-dad are both high risk, last summer we had a few visits outside, distanced, and while masked but the heat is an issue for my step-dad. They've been following whatever their doctor has been telling them, some I feel may be extreme now that we have more data. i.e. no contact with anyone, grocery delivery and wipe them down, mask while walking the dog. We've seen them maybe 4 times in person, but I have to respect what they want for themselves. Her paternal grandparents live next door to her dad, and she still sees them during her time with him. She does have to wear a mask in public with them, and they limited their holidays to just them, her dad, and her vs 40+ for every holiday. In-laws visit about once a month on the porch, hugs and stuff are okay. Only other person would be my brother I haven't seen in a year because he's locked up. No visitors, still no vaccines for the incarcerated. They've had 138 positive cases and 8 prisoners die, 104 staff cases.
It's a very mixed bag around us and mentally it's my mom that is having the hardest time with it.

 

[matt9112]

If you’re making an income, then it’s a real job. Don’t be upset just because you’re not having fun and others are.

The pandemic has created a duality of risk....the office based workplaces can work from there bedroom and completely isolate (if you desire) and still cash that check. The other half of the country had to walk out into it every day. Or you know dont work. Although i make good money relatively my job is still field based there is no way to work from home. However i haven't sat inside and locked my doors. I have flown around the cointry and continued to live life relatively normally.

 

[matt9112]

My company hired so many people during the pandemic, they won't all fit back in our building if we brought everybody back.

Wonder what all these companies are going to do with all this office space thats value just came down like the hindenburg.

 

[pixie225]

One of our very good friends has had his immediate family (daughter, son-in-law, 2 grandkids) over literally 2-3x a week for dinner to hang out, etc. since pandemic started. 3 weeks ago they all came down with covid - even the 3 year old and 1 year old. My friend ended up in the hospital, and got anti-body injection. Was pretty sick. All recovered with minimal side effects. (still no sense of smell or taste for him.) I can't imagine Disney dropping facemark requirement in the near future, with so many people not vaccinated, or not taking the vaccine for whatever reason. I will wear my facemask for quite a while whenever I go out near other people- even if facemarks are not required- as I do not know if they have been vaccinated or not. That is my new "normal" for a while.