Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[coasterphil]

There's a ton of excess capacity in the state. I was truly shocked how easy it was to find appointments, and if you live in Jacksonville/Miami/Panhandle it's completely wide open. I'm not sure dropping the age by 5 is going to make much of an impact unless the DOH form is slowing medical folks that are waiting to make their appointments. I have to imagine it'll be open season in April down here barring continued growth in production.

 

[CJR]

I can't imagine that they actually win. They knew their child has an autoimmune disease and another child is asthmatic, were afraid to go on the cruise due to the virus, and went on the cruise anyway because they "had no choice" since Disney wouldn't give them a refund? They had a choice, but they apparently felt the cost of the cruise outweighed the risk to their children's (and their own) health.

That's true, but it's also questionable that they didn't test positive until April 15th, when their cruise returned on March 14th. That's a pretty hefty gap to pin on DCL specifically. To win this, I think they should prove they actually got Covid from a cruise and not anything that followed. A lot can happen in a month.

The other group didn't test positive until May 1.

I know there was issues with Covid testing last year, but those gaps are just too significant, IMO. Sure they took their child to the hospital shortly after the cruise (March 16th, per the article) , but was that child diagnosed with Covid-19? Probably not, otherwise why wait until around May to get tested? As the matter of fact, why wait a year to file suit?

 

[GoofGoof]

Counties and municipalities can and still do impose restrictions. For example, Broward County still requires restaurants to maintain 6 foot distancing between tables unless doing so would cause the capacity to be less than 50%, in which case they are allowed to have 50%. They also limit movie theatres, concert venues, etc. to 50% capacity and require 6ft distancing.

Broward also has a mask mandate which they say can be enforced with fines but the fines can't be collected for the duration of the Governor's executive order.

I anticipate that at some combination of lower case numbers and higher percentage of vaccinations, Governor Desantis will issue an executive order that prevents counties or municipalities from having any restrictions, similar to what Governor Abbott did in Texas.

It is a myth that Florida isn't under any restrictions. I think that pretty much all of the high population counties have restrictions.

Fair enough but if the mandates cannot be enforced are they really mandates? It’s political theater to pass such an executive order to keep up the appearance of being anti covid restrictions but there really aren’t any enforceable restrictions. How could Walmart or CVS allow optional masks if there’s a local mask mandate? Because it can’t be enforced. My only point to all of this is I think that we won’t see a meaningful change in people’s lives until businesses decide to remove restrictions. The vast majority of restrictions actually being enforced in FL are coming from businesses not the government. In some other states that wasn‘t the case and businesses were still closed or severely restricted. As the government relaxes their Covid safety protocols there will be an immediate change...see DLR in CA.

 

[mmascari]

"Floridians age 60 and older will be able to receive the COVID-19 vaccine starting next week, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Monday.


Ohio is starting age 50+ for vaccinations this Thursday. It's moving along!

Any states down to 45 yet?

Asking for a friend. (Ok, it's me, I'm the friend. Dammit, I just want the thing.)

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 81 new reported deaths, along with 2 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[Kevin_W]

Any states down to 45 yet?

Asking for a friend. (Ok, it's me, I'm the friend. Dammit, I just want the thing.)

I'm 46, so I feel the same angst!

 

[JoeCamel]

There's a ton of excess capacity in the state. I was truly shocked how easy it was to find appointments, and if you live in Jacksonville/Miami/Panhandle it's completely wide open. I'm not sure dropping the age by 5 is going to make much of an impact unless the DOH form is slowing medical folks that are waiting to make their appointments. I have to imagine it'll be open season in April down here barring continued growth in production.

The state registration site is taking pre-registration signups now I believe so when your group is ready you only have to set the appointment. I think we will see the age drop quickly and other essential workers added in as the age drops. A 20 yo grocery clerk could be in the same group as their 45yo co-worker.

 

[coasterphil]

Desantis stated there will be no more "groups" beyond age for the remainder of the rollout. Maybe the Federal sites could force his hand like the K-12 eligibility did, but if you take him at his word it'll just be a march down the age list until we get to whatever point he feels no longer necessitates any sort of priority.

 

[Tom P.]

Any states down to 45 yet?

Asking for a friend. (Ok, it's me, I'm the friend. Dammit, I just want the thing.)

I don't know about states that are "wide open" for 45 year olds, but West Virginia now allows teachers and other employees of K-12 schools and colleges who are 40 and over to get vaccinated.

 

[Mark52479]

Fair enough but if the mandates cannot be enforced are they really mandates? It’s political theater to pass such an executive order to keep up the appearance of being anti covid restrictions but there really aren’t any enforceable restrictions. How could Walmart or CVS allow optional masks if there’s a local mask mandate? Because it can’t be enforced. My only point to all of this is I think that we won’t see a meaningful change in people’s lives until businesses decide to remove restrictions. The vast majority of restrictions actually being enforced in FL are coming from businesses not the government. In some other states that wasn‘t the case and businesses were still closed or severely restricted. As the government relaxes their Covid safety protocols there will be an immediate change...see DLR in CA.

What I think will happen here in Florida, once the vaccine is available to everyone and everyone has had the chance to get it, the Governor will add to the Executive Order "businesses can NOT be fined for anything covid related"

Essentially, this will then leave it up to the individual business to require masks or not. Some will some will not and the patron will then have the choice to visit that business or not.

 

[GoofGoof]

What I think will happen here in Florida, once the vaccine is available to everyone and everyone has had the chance to get it, the Governor will add to the Executive Order "businesses can NOT be fined for anything covid related"

Essentially, this will then leave it up to the individual business to require masks or not. Some will some will not and the patron will then have the choice to visit that business or not.

Agreed. I think that’s likely to happen. I’m not trying to wee in anyone’s Cheerios or be a downer, but just because the government removes their restrictions doesn’t mean businesses will Automatically follow. Public sentiment and pressure from customers will do it more than changes from the government. So for WDW they will change when they are ready not when the Governor or Mayor say it’s time. For all of us that likely means a little longer than what the government will require.

 

[Mark52479]

Agreed. I think that’s likely to happen. I’m not trying to wee in anyone’s Cheerios or be a downer, but just because the government removes their restrictions doesn’t mean businesses will Automatically follow. Public sentiment and pressure from customers will do it more than changes from the government. So for WDW they will change when they are ready not when the Governor or Mayor say it’s time. For all of us that likely means a little longer than what the government will require.

yup 100%

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't know about states that are "wide open" for 45 year olds, but West Virginia now allows teachers and other employees of K-12 schools and colleges who are 40 and over to get vaccinated.

We got the notification today that my kids will have a half day on Thursday and full virtual day on Friday as all teachers, admin staff and bus drivers get their shots. In PA the Governor allocated the first batch of JnJ shots to go directly to the schools so they are doing them this week. There’s no age or health requirement. It’s anyone who works there.

 

[Tom P.]

We got the notification today that my kids will have a half day on Thursday and full virtual day on Friday as all teachers, admin staff and bus drivers get their shots. In PA the Governor allocated the first batch of JnJ shots to go directly to the schools so they are doing them this week. There’s no age or health requirement. It’s anyone who works there.

Good to hear! I am getting the jab Thursday at 3:30 p.m. because I work at a college. I won't know until I arrive whether it is my "first" shot or my "only" shot because they don't say in advance if it's Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J. I've already had Covid, though, so I'm bracing for side effects to potentially be bad.

 

[ABQ]

Agreed. I think that’s likely to happen. I’m not trying to wee in anyone’s Cheerios or be a downer, but just because the government removes their restrictions doesn’t mean businesses will Automatically follow. Public sentiment and pressure from customers will do it more than changes from the government. So for WDW they will change when they are ready not when the Governor or Mayor say it’s time. For all of us that likely means a little longer than what the government will require.

It may equate to the same thing, but WDW will change when they believe it will impact their stock value favorably.

 

[GoofGoof]

It may equate to the same thing, but WDW will change when they believe it will impact their stock value favorably.

Agreed. I actually think they would like to change sooner than a lot of other people think. I think they will be somewhat conservative but at the end of the day they want to go back to earnings and if they can bring in meaningful numbers this summer from the parks it will be a windfall since most analysts have written off 2021 parks segment as mostly a wash or small amount of profit. I think once the CMs are vaccinated they will start making changes. I still think masks and temp scans will go last since they are visual reminders of how safe the parks are but they don’t really impact capacity or money in the door.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Agreed. I actually think they would like to change sooner than a lot of other people think. I think they will be somewhat conservative but at the end of the day they want to go back to earnings and if they can bring in meaningful numbers this summer from the parks it will be a windfall since most analysts have written off 2021 parks segment as mostly a wash or small amount of profit. I think once the CMs are vaccinated they will start making changes. I still think masks and temp scans will go last since they are visual reminders of how safe the parks are but they don’t really impact capacity or money in the door.

The masks are what is keeping a lot of guests away too. My guess is they will leave some of the dividers on attractions and busses for awhile but remove masks eventually. Maybe late summer early fall. I hope

 

[GoofGoof]

Apparently the new CDC guidelines released today were supposed to have a section on travel that was removed. That was part of the reason for delay. It may be due to a fear that too many people will consider traveling for Spring Break which is starting the next few weeks. No word exactly what the recommendation on travel was going to be but if it’s like the others it would lessen restrictions on vaccinated people.

One interesting quote from this article:
Fauci said that mask mandates could slacken as more people get vaccinated because of evidence in countries like Israel that transmission from vaccinated people to others is quite low.

“I think as we get more data in that regard, you're going to start seeing the mask mandate for people who are vaccinated be pulled off gradually — not yet, we need the data — but it's going to happen, pretty soon I think.”

That is the most optimistic I’ve heard Fauci or anyone from the government on removal of mask mandates and relaximg of restrictions once people are vaccinated. This also flies in the face of the popular sentiment that case numbers would drive the removal of restrictions not number of vaccinations. It seems that what he’s saying is if the preliminary data on transmission turns out to be accurate we can allow vaccinated people to do a lot more since they are a very small threat to spread the virus. The obvious question is how do you differentiate those vaccinated vs those who are not.

CDC cuts travel advice from guidelines for vaccinated people

The Biden administration put the highly anticipated guidelines on hold last week in part over concerns about the wording and the recommendations around quarantining.

www.yahoo.com

 

[seascape]

Agreed. I actually think they would like to change sooner than a lot of other people think. I think they will be somewhat conservative but at the end of the day they want to go back to earnings and if they can bring in meaningful numbers this summer from the parks it will be a windfall since most analysts have written off 2021 parks segment as mostly a wash or small amount of profit. I think once the CMs are vaccinated they will start making changes. I still think masks and temp scans will go last since they are visual reminders of how safe the parks are but they don’t really impact capacity or money in the door.

The Summer will be much better than expected. I think it's crazy listening to the Government today and their continued belief that the numbers are not going down and may actually go up. I never believed Florida's numbers from last Sundays testing and insteal looked Sonday and Monday combined. The daily numbers varry while a weekly look is better both for the trend and average. That said todays 3494 number was still an improvement over yesterday's number but I still want to see tomorrow's number at 4500 or less so the combined number is below 8000. However looking at this most optimistically, 3,494 is 15.74 cases per 100,000 using the estimated 22.2 million population estimate. I look forward to seeing tomorrow's updated national numbers.