Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[seascape]

The CDC may say you don't need to take another test if you are fully vaccinated but I just saw another commercial on NBC saying to keep take one. I guess the State of New York doesn't trust the Biden Administration either.

 

[mmascari]

• New York is constantly running commercials telling people to get tested weekly or biweekly even if they have recovered from Covid19 or been vaccinated. Why? The reason to get tested is to see if you have it. If you had ir in the past, you know your symptoms and should not get tested unless you are sick. So, why is NY encouraging people to get tested anyway? Is it to lower the percentage of positive results? Or maybe it's just to have the Federal Government pay for more testing and employment that is unnecessary. In either case the result is the same. If you want to know the true rate in each state conduct an independent sample. The way testing is done today is not comparable because each state is doing it differently. So I consider the cases per 100,000 number that scientists said anything over 10 is bad is what should be used. NY, NJ and RI are the 3 worst states for Covid19 according to the independent NY Times and NY and NJ have 48% more cases on Average than number 4 South Carolina.

The two metrics measure different things, on it's own neither is really helpful enough.

	High Case Count	Low Case Count
High Positivity	Unknown rampant spread, we were here earlier.	Not testing enough, the case count is probably wrong and low. We were here in the beginning.
Low Positivity	This could be two different things. Neither is particularly great. Either it's testing the wrong people, not contacts but just random. Alternatively, it's testing the right people but not stopping them from spreading to more people so cases aren't coming down.	Finding all the cases, testing all the contacts, nothing left unchecked. This is the goal, find infectious people fast and check everyone they could have spread to. Stop them from spreading to more.

New York state isn't evenly distributed, so it's hard to tell from a state level number.

COVID-19

forward.ny.gov

• Central NY looks pretty good, 0.9% and 13.15/100K.
• New York City 4.0% and 46.61/100K looks really bad to me. It feels like 4.0% positivity is trending low, but the case count isn't following. That lower left box. So, either they're testing the wrong groups, not stopping spread despite the testing, or there's some big lag on prior infections we have to wait out. I wouldn't call that good.

Also, the 5% number isn't something magic were above is bad and below is good. I mean, above is bad, we know that. But, the reverse isn't "good", it's "less bad". Somewhere under 1%, not exactly sure where, is probably where its starts to get to "good".

We want both numbers to be low, just one of them means there's still a problem somewhere.

 

[carolina_yankee]

There is a big problem just looking at the positivity rate from the tests alone. First, most people who are sick will get tested.
However, places like NY keep advertising that even if you have recovered from Covid19 or have had the vaccine keep get tested weekly. So, second places like NY and surrounding areas are testing people to intentionally lower the positivity rate. The NY Times by listing the cases per 100,000 is the number to use and ignore the testing rate because most states aren't throwing away taxpayer money testing those who already have antibodies and are not in danger. How else can one explain that NY is at the top of cases per 100,000 and at the bottom of the positivity rate, other than NY internationally over testing to make themselves look better than they are! Maybe the NY Times or some other news outlet should take a random test of people in every state to see what the rate really is and not base it on numbers that are not comparable.

I'm not commenting on NY's numbers. I have no opinion. COVIDACTNow has NY at 5.0 positivity. Also, it's kind of pointless to test those who have had COVID if you want to keep the numbers low. You can test positive for several weeks or months after infected and are no longer contagious. It's happened with a couple of people in my congregation. It may also be that upstate NY is extremely low, which pulls the whole state average down.

NJ and the NY Metro area are stubbornly high. My county in NJ is stubbornly high for NJ. Even so, we're about 6.8% positivity. The British variant is active in NJ and there seems to be a NY variant. I have also heard of a couple of super-spreader events in nearby towns that were traced to the British variant. Conversely, I think the weather from a couple of weeks ago artificially lowered testing numbers so it looks like we're getting worse when we may have plateaued. Fortunately, hospitalizations continue to decline in NJ.

Can't comment on NY, but nobody wants NJ to look bad. We're nearly at 20% with first dose, have tends of thousands of people who had the virus, are pretty good with masking and distancing in most scenarios, and we appear to have plateaued at best. That doesn't bode well.

However, I am an optimist. I do think the weather had a role to play and I think we'll see numbers continue to decline overall in NJ and hopefully NY. The vaccination process has to be good for something!

 

[seascape]

The two metrics measure different things, on it's own neither is really helpful enough.

	High Case Count	Low Case Count
High Positivity	Unknown rampant spread, we were here earlier.	Not testing enough, the case count is probably wrong and low. We were here in the beginning.
Low Positivity	This could be two different things. Neither is particularly great. Either it's testing the wrong people, not contacts but just random. Alternatively, it's testing the right people but not stopping them from spreading to more people so cases aren't coming down.	Finding all the cases, testing all the contacts, nothing left unchecked. This is the goal, find infectious people fast and check everyone they could have spread to. Stop them from spreading to more.

New York state isn't evenly distributed, so it's hard to tell from a state level number.

COVID-19

forward.ny.gov

• Central NY looks pretty good, 0.9% and 13.15/100K.
• New York City 4.0% and 46.61/100K looks really bad to me. It feels like 4.0% positivity is trending low, but the case count isn't following. That lower left box. So, either they're testing the wrong groups, not stopping spread despite the testing, or there's some big lag on prior infections we have to wait out. I wouldn't call that good.

Also, the 5% number isn't something magic were above is bad and below is good. I mean, above is bad, we know that. But, the reverse isn't "good", it's "less bad". Somewhere under 1%, not exactly sure where, is probably where its starts to get to "good".

We want both numbers to be low, just one of them means there's still a problem somewhere.

I agree a high positivity rate is bad. However, as you said a low positivity rate alone does not mean anything. We need both numbers being low. Cuomo has never talked about New York's cases per 100,000. The real question is what percentage of the public should be tested daily? I know I want those that are sick to get tested but I would still much rather have an independent group take a random sample of everone to find the real infection rate because the way it is done today is meaningless.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm not commenting on NY's numbers. I have no opinion. COVIDACTNow has NY at 5.0 positivity. Also, it's kind of pointless to test those who have had COVID if you want to keep the numbers low. You can test positive for several weeks or months after infected and are no longer contagious. It's happened with a couple of people in my congregation. It may also be that upstate NY is extremely low, which pulls the whole state average down.

NJ and the NY Metro area are stubbornly high. My county in NJ is stubbornly high for NJ. Even so, we're about 6.8% positivity. The British variant is active in NJ and there seems to be a NY variant. I have also heard of a couple of super-spreader events in nearby towns that were traced to the British variant. Conversely, I think the weather from a couple of weeks ago artificially lowered testing numbers so it looks like we're getting worse when we may have plateaued. Fortunately, hospitalizations continue to decline in NJ.

Can't comment on NY, but nobody wants NJ to look bad. We're nearly at 20% with first dose, have tends of thousands of people who had the virus, are pretty good with masking and distancing in most scenarios, and we appear to have plateaued at best. That doesn't bode well
However, I am an optimist. I do think the weather had a role to play and I think we'll see numbers continue to decline overall in NJ and hopefully NY. The vaccination process has to be good for something!

So NJ and NY will getting low cases soon if all people got vaccines by end of May or June? That was so going to be a few months ahead to reach for back to normal soon. Also, which CVS, Walgreens and other stores will have J&J vaccine so I need to vaccinated this week or next week?

 

[mmascari]

Thanks! I'm using this info because we are trying to get better cubicles. As it is now, we are all about 3 feet apart if everyone there at same time.
We haven't gone back yet, but it's coming and I just want it to be safe/reasonable. I'm also suggesting alternate days between home/office for staff.

If you made it this far, is there some driving force to get back now?

If you can wait it out for a few more months, the number of unvaccinated should plummet along with community spread, and the guidelines will change again, removing more restrictions.

I mean, you could totally make it work with mitigation policies, mask/distance/ventilation and get everyone in. This is what schools are targeting, or should have been. Make the investments, especially in ventilation, get the value add of in person. But, for a cube farm office, is there really that much value add to being there?

At least half (or more) of my office prefers being remote. Even a few of the upper managers have said meetings with everyone remote run better than half in the building and half remote. Since we have multiple locations, there's rarely one where everyone is in the room.

 

[dreday3]

If you made it this far, is there some driving force to get back now?

If you can wait it out for a few more months, the number of unvaccinated should plummet along with community spread, and the guidelines will change again, removing more restrictions.

I mean, you could totally make it work with mitigation policies, mask/distance/ventilation and get everyone in. This is what schools are targeting, or should have been. Make the investments, especially in ventilation, get the value add of in person. But, for a cube farm office, is there really that much value add to being there?

At least half (or more) of my office prefers being remote. Even a few of the upper managers have said meetings with everyone remote run better than half in the building and half remote. Since we have multiple locations, there's rarely one where everyone is in the room.

Yes, the driving force is a relic of an upper boss who wants to see "bodies in seats". He's one of those "this is the way it's always been" kind of guys....everyone was hoping he would take advantage of the enhanced retirement packages with bonuses attached that were offered during worst of pandemic when hrs/pay were being cut, but he didn't.

No one wants to go back. We all said 2 days a week tops is a good compromise. We've proven the last year we can work at home, productivity has actually increased, sick time has all but dropped off. But, such is the life of a cubicle worker...

 

[Touchdown]

High testing numbers improves the accuracy of the case counts, the higher number of people you test, the more likely you will catch people with Covid.

The total positive case count is what matters, high number of positives=bad. You want a high testing numbers and low positives.

 

[danlb_2000]

The CDC may say you don't need to take another test if you are fully vaccinated but I just saw another commercial on NBC saying to keep take one. I guess the State of New York doesn't trust the Biden Administration either.

The guidance just came out today, not enough time to pull back that kind of advertising.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

We've proven the last year we can work at home, productivity has actually increased, sick time has all but dropped off.

I have two friends who own businesses that employ like 40-60 each. They have both said the same thing... productivity is up and they can’t see any reason to go back to the way it was before.

 

[lazyboy97o]

The guidance just came out today, not enough time to pull back that kind of advertising.

The reasoning doesn’t matter. It’s an ongoing political tirade that ignores a-, pre- and low symptomatic spread.

 

[seascape]

So NJ and NY will getting low cases soon if all people got vaccines by end of May or June? That was so going to be a few months ahead to reach for back to normal soon. Also, which CVS, Walgreens and other stores will have J&J vaccine so I need to vaccinated this week or next week?

The cases in NY and NJ are unfortunate and discouraging but the pandemic will be over soon. I have said for months that April is when it ends. We did have a week that cases appeared to bottom out at 60k but now they are dropping again. 40k on Saturday's testing numbers is great, especially with how bad things are in NY and NJ. The fact that only 3 states are over 30 and every other state and DC are at 25 or less is proof it's ending. Even California is down to 11. 10 was the magic number up until December and Saturday's tests were at 12.1. Progress and hope are high. The cases will continue to drop if we all do the right thing, wear a mask for 9 more weeks and get take the shot as soon as you are eligible. If we do those 2 small steps the country will have low single digit per 100,000 on May 1. We have been through a dreadful year and are on the homestretch, don't fall down today, hang on there and we can all have a fantastic Summer. My second shot is May 19. I will meet the CDC Fully Vaccinated rules on April 3. Stay safe and do the right thing.

 

[mmascari]

Yes, the driving force is a relic of an upper boss who wants to see "bodies in seats". He's one of those "this is the way it's always been" kind of guys....everyone was hoping he would take advantage of the enhanced retirement packages with bonuses attached that were offered during worst of pandemic when hrs/pay were being cut, but he didn't.

No one wants to go back. We all said 2 days a week tops is a good compromise. We've proven the last year we can work at home, productivity has actually increased, sick time has all but dropped off. But, such is the life of a cubicle worker...

I sense a future malicious compliance story. Sure, we can get everyone back, this is the cost to change all the cubicles, enhance the ventilation, he's the $$$$ bill and it's going to take 8 weeks (12?) to implement.

We have some of those at the top too. It was nice when we heard a story that they had some feedback at that level of improved meetings and outcomes. Good luck.

 

[DisneyCane]

The cases in NY and NJ are unfortunate and discouraging but the pandemic will be over soon. I have said for months that April is when it ends. We did have a week that cases appeared to bottom out at 60k but now they are dropping again. 40k on Saturday's testing numbers is great, especially with how bad things are in NY and NJ. The fact that only 3 states are over 30 and every other state and DC are at 25 or less is proof it's ending. Even California is down to 11. 10 was the magic number up until December and Saturday's tests were at 12.1. Progress and hope are high. The cases will continue to drop if we all do the right thing, wear a mask for 9 more weeks and get take the shot as soon as you are eligible. If we do those 2 small steps the country will have low single digit per 100,000 on May 1. We have been through a dreadful year and are on the homestretch, don't fall down today, hang on there and we can all have a fantastic Summer. My second shot is May 19. I will meet the CDC Fully Vaccinated rules on April 3. Stay safe and do the right thing.

It pretty much ends in April because by the end of April, all people in the highest risk age group who want the vaccine should be fully vaccinated. Combined with the way cases are dropping without the effect of the vaccine, when the daily death count drops another 70% or 80% from this point, it will be very hard to sell the continued mitigation except to the people who equate COVID-19 with the black plague.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

They want the numbers to come down to make Joe look good Although you can still catch it even after getting your shot........just like the flu

 

[DisneyCane]

I have two friends who own businesses that employ like 40-60 each. They have both said the same thing... productivity is up and they can’t see any reason to go back to the way it was before.

Don't invest in any REITs that have a large portfolio of office space! I think from their inception, Jetblue had their customer service agents working from home to save money on office space. That was over 20 years ago when internet access was not nearly what it is now. DSL was just gaining a foothold.

 

[Polkadotdress]

They want the numbers to come down to make Joe look good Although you can still catch it even after getting your shot........just like the flu

No, most of us want the numbers to come down so we can be past the danger of Covid, and life can be normal again.

Also, the flu shot doesn't always protect you against all of the current strains, as it has to be produced prior to knowing what those strains are. The Covd vaccination DOES protect you against the common variants, with some concerns about a lack of efficacy against the Brazilian variant.

 

[Crunchie9]

And I think this is where we are going to start to see the Vaccine Passport chatter pick up.

I don’t think so.

 

[meyeet]

No, most of us want the numbers to come down so we can be past the danger of Covid, and life can be normal again.

Also, the flu shot doesn't always protect you against all of the current strains, as it has to be produced prior to knowing what those strains are. The Covd vaccination DOES protect you against the common variants, with some concerns about a lack of efficacy against the Brazilian variant.

The Covid Vaccination does not prevent you from catching COVID of any strain.

 

[seascape]

The Covid Vaccination does not prevent you from catching COVID of any strain.

That is not what the CDC said today. They said the vaccines are highly effective but not 100%. Therefore, the vaccine greatly reduces the probability of anyone catching it. If it does significantly lower the possibility of catching it means it does prevent most people from getting it.