Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

The margin of error is also misunderstood by a lot of people. There is a confidence interval that comes into play also. Most polls use 95%. When a poll says "margin of error is +/- 3%" what it actually means is there is a 95% probability that the poll results are within +/- 3%, not that the results are within 3%. There is a 5% chance that the actual error is more than 3%.


Does Cuomo count?

There is a 40% difference between the 2 groups. Is it possible the poll has an error large enough to make up for that, I guess it’s mathematically possible, but highly unlikely. It’s much more likely that less Republicans want the vaccine. Sometimes the simplest answer is the right one. I can’t explain fully why this disparity would exist, but just because someone doesn’t want it to be so doesn’t mean it’s not true. We are all free to believe whatever we want of course. In a few months maybe we will have some data on who actually got vaccinated to see if the polls were off by 40%. Of course if the results do or don’t show a large disparity we can always just assume people lied about whether they got the vaccine too.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Not judging, but why do you question this?

I agree we need to promote whatever will work for the groups that distrust. Some will be overcoming historical issues and others will be just those who believe in conspiracy or other strange theories. Each group should be handled appropriately. I do have more patience with those who distrust science due to science being used in harmful ways against them (like Tuskegee study or birth control study in PR etc) than I do with those who are just anti-vax or whatever as a whole.

Okay now I really need to do my work lol. I just find this discussion pretty cool.

Because I think the mRNA shots have proven themselves.

The high school my wife works for just announced they are having a spring musical. So, I guess...

 

[GimpYancIent]

The margin of error is also misunderstood by a lot of people. There is a confidence interval that comes into play also. Most polls use 95%. When a poll says "margin of error is +/- 3%" what it actually means is there is a 95% probability that the poll results are within +/- 3%, not that the results are within 3%. There is a 5% chance that the actual error is more than 3%.


Does Cuomo count?

Cuomo? How about NO!

 

[correcaminos]

Because I think the mRNA shots have proven themselves.

The high school my wife works for just announced they are having a spring musical. So, I guess...
View attachment 535523

Ah misunderstood the sentiment. I agree mRNA shots have proven themselves.

We are having one at the HS too nothing in the middle schools or even choir/band concerts here though. So strange. Musical will be masked and different I understand but still crazy. Our state hasn't opened indoor entertainment yet.

 

[JoeCamel]

Cuomo? How about NO!

My beef is with them making political hay out of a pandemic. Go to your office, issue any necessary orders and let your people do their jobs. There is no upside to putting your face in front of it. It hurts the effort just as much as it helps their career

 

[SamusAranX]

Ummm.... all those super spreader events that was a surprise to everyone... there was secretly someone there that was symptomatic and able to hide their symptoms?

Not saying it did or didn't, but I will say that it's not beyond the realm of possibility that someone with symptoms did go; not necessarily a fever, but cough, sore throat, etc.

Because sadly, I have met people who would still go out even with classic symptoms of COVID (i dOnT nEeD a TesT, it's a cold, it's strep, etc.)

 

[ToTBellHop]

Ah misunderstood the sentiment. I agree mRNA shots have proven themselves.

We are having one at the HS too nothing in the middle schools or even choir/band concerts here though. So strange. Musical will be masked and different I understand but still crazy. Our state hasn't opened indoor entertainment yet.

I was saying I disagree with people who feel non-replicating vital vector vaccines are “proven” but mRNA vaccines are not. But, even still, if there are identifiable groups that feel that way, it makes sense to specifically send JnJ there, just to ensure the greatest uptake possible. It’s better to be agreeable with people we are relying on to do something for the greater good than to belittle them.

 

[ABQ]

I was saying I disagree with people who feel non-replicating vital vector vaccines are “proven” but mRNA vaccines are not. But, even still, if there are identifiable groups that feel that way, it makes sense to specifically send JnJ there, just to ensure the greatest uptake possible. It’s better to be agreeable with people we are relying on to do something for the greater good than to belittle them.

Has this study been brought up here yet?

A Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern, B.1.526, Identified in New York

Recent months have seen surges of SARS-CoV-2 infection across the globe along with considerable viral evolution. Extensive mutations in the spike protein of variants B.1.1.7, B1.351, and P.1 have raised concerns that the efficacy of current vaccines and therapeutic monoclonal antibodies could be...

www.medrxiv.org

A study published by scientists at Columbia University on Thursday indicates that this new variant is resistant to vaccines and is increasingly populating the community. Researchers examined 1,142 samples and discovered that 12% of the people infected with coronavirus had received the mutated version of the virus. They found an increasing rise in the mutated virus occurring from mid-December through mid-February, “with an alarming escalation rate to 12.3% in just the last two weeks.”​

 

[Chomama]

Question for those of you that reside in states without WDW, does your governor show up at vac sites and do pressers?

Not once

 

[Touchdown]

Has this study been brought up here yet?

A Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern, B.1.526, Identified in New York

Recent months have seen surges of SARS-CoV-2 infection across the globe along with considerable viral evolution. Extensive mutations in the spike protein of variants B.1.1.7, B1.351, and P.1 have raised concerns that the efficacy of current vaccines and therapeutic monoclonal antibodies could be...

www.medrxiv.org

A study published by scientists at Columbia University on Thursday indicates that this new variant is resistant to vaccines and is increasingly populating the community. Researchers examined 1,142 samples and discovered that 12% of the people infected with coronavirus had received the mutated version of the virus. They found an increasing rise in the mutated virus occurring from mid-December through mid-February, “with an alarming escalation rate to 12.3% in just the last two weeks.”​

The study does not prove or suggest the vaccines are less effective. They only note that the changes are similar to the SA varient and MAY limit the vaccine antibody effectiveness.

 

[ToTBellHop]

The study does not prove or suggest the vaccines are less effective. They only note that the changes are similar to the SA varient and MAY limit the vaccine antibody effectiveness.

And real-world analyses continue to suggest the media is exaggerating the variant concern. Modelers expect the variants to, at worst, lessen the downward slope of our daily deaths. Cases may increase a bit in April but not deaths due to the highest-risk individuals being vaccinated.

It may be messier in Europe (other than UK) since they’ve vaccinated so few.

 

[networkpro]

The study does not prove or suggest the vaccines are less effective. They only note that the changes are similar to the SA varient and MAY limit the vaccine antibody effectiveness.

Anecdotal evidence at best, not proven. Lots of study is needed to make those conclusions become valid and to exactly what degree the effectiveness is or is not compromised.

 

[danlb_2000]

Question for those of you that reside in states without WDW, does your governor show up at vac sites and do pressers?

In NJ, yes.

 

[Touchdown]

And real-world analyses continue to suggest the media is exaggerating the variant concern. Modelers expect the variants to, at worst, lessen the downward slope of our daily deaths. Cases may increase a bit in April but not deaths due to the highest-risk individuals being vaccinated.

It may be messier in Europe (other than UK) since they’ve vaccinated so few.

I know many knock them, but this is even reflected in the IHME prediction:

Notice, that their current worse case scenario only projects essentially a flattening of new cases for two months as the varients take hold. The longer cases continue to drop, the less likely and smaller the bump will be because every day we vaccinate more people.

 

[hopemax]

Question for those of you that reside in states without WDW, does your governor show up at vac sites and do pressers?

I knew our Gov here (CO) did stop by the one at Coors Field when they were doing the first large event, for 10K people over a weekend. I Googled, and he also stopped by several on Sat. 2/13. But there weren't press conferences. He showed up for a tour, talked to the people for a time and that was it. Media coverage was about the vaccination site with a short bit from the Gov about the importance of being vaccinated.

 

[Kevin_W]

I mean the scientists themselves have been lying to us or at least hiding inconvenient truths since the beginning. "Listen to the science" and "listen to the scientists" are not the same thing. For example, you would never know listening to Fauci and other public-facing experts that:

• Asymptomatic transmission is extremely rare
• Transmission in schools is extremely rare
• Transmission outdoors is extremely rare
• Surface transmission is extremely rare
• Serious illness among children is extremely rare
• Serious illness among healthy adults is extremely rare

They have consistently downplayed "good news" about the disease in order to make it seem as bad as possible. They've done this with ostensibly noble goals of getting people to comply with mitigation efforts, but that doesn't make it any less dishonest.

I think the problem is that many people live in a binary world. There is no "rare" there is either "happens" or "doesn't happen". So we can say something is low risk and a large segment of people will get angry because they read a story about it happening to that one guy.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Question for those of you that reside in states without WDW, does your governor show up at vac sites and do pressers?

Not sure of the reason for the question, but yes.

NJ Governor does three public briefings a week streamed live on YouTube. Always has Health Commissioner, other health officials, public safety, and occasionally education and labor officials.

They tend to be about pandemic and efforts to end it, not about him or other personalities.

 

[danlb_2000]

I know many knock them, but this is even reflected in the IHME prediction:
View attachment 535552
Notice, that their current worse case scenario only projects essentially a flattening of new cases for two months as the varients take hold. The longer cases continue to drop, the less likely and smaller the bump will be because every day we vaccinate more people.

The "worse" case in that graph is what we are currently seeing in the numbers.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I know many knock them, but this is even reflected in the IHME prediction:
View attachment 535552
Notice, that their current worse case scenario only projects essentially a flattening of new cases for two months as the varients take hold. The longer cases continue to drop, the less likely and smaller the bump will be because every day we vaccinate more people.

Exactly. Europe, unfortunately, suffers because the variants for there earlier and they vaccinated more slowly. The combination of a slower variant arrival, faster vaccine rollout, the holidays ending (fewer social events), and 75% of us wearing masks has helped our numbers.

Seasonality of the virus and the continued pace of vaccination, as you say, should blunt variant spread for us. Not that it isn’t a bit worrisome—there will be more deaths than would otherwise occur and we MUST continue wearing masks and distancing at least a few more months. But, the media painting this as a situation that will render vaccines useless and leave us in a permanent pandemic is sensationalism.

 

[ToTBellHop]

The "worse" case in that graph is what we are currently seeing in the numbers.

Sort of—but their “worse” improved this week due to a steeper than expected drop. Also, the storms last week likely caused an artificial drop in cases and deaths reported last week and then a bounce back this week. We will know more in a week.