Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Certainly you don't want appointments going unfilled. At least in FL, it doesn't matter that 65 and up have had 1.5 months to get scheduled. Many still can't get an appointment and they keep trying to.

I don't mean to wait until appointments go unfilled. The appointments open up at least a day in advance. Currently they fill as quickly as the booking systems can handle it. I would go to the next tier when you get to a point where when the appointments open up for booking, there are still some available a couple of hours later. That would indicate the demand for the current tier at the present time has been fulfilled.

Those poll numbers @GoofGoof has quoted are of the overall population. I'd imagine that if you narrowed down specifically to 65 and over, the percentage who want it would be higher because they are much more at risk.

The latest poll shows 71% of Americans overall say they will or already have received the Covid vaccine. Of the 29% who say no 31% of them say they want to wait to see if the vaccines are safe and/or effective. Since the vaccines are definitely both safe and effective I have assumed that we can add another 9% to the total (31% of the 29% who say no right now) and that gets us to 80% overall.

On the demographic front the 65+ group is at 80% yes but if we assume roughly 30% of the no votes come around that gets us over 86%. Besides political affiliation (Republicans still only at 51% yes) the largest discrepancy on yes votes comes from non-college educated at only 66% vs 84% with a college degree. Geographically the South is also 10% less likely to get it than the NE (which is likely somewhat politically driven) so it’s likely that at some point we see vaccines open to more groups in different states due to level of demand.

Two-Thirds of Americans Not Satisfied With Vaccine Rollout

In the U.S., 66% of adults are dissatisfied with how the vaccination process is going.

news.gallup.com

 

[Patcheslee]

Mediocre? We’re one of the fastest vaccinating countries on the planet, and the only ones ahead of us are orders of magnitude smaller in size and population. We are on track to vaccinate more then half of our adult population by the end of March.

Where have you seen half the adult population by March?

 

[seabreezept813]

I've said not popular things about this, and I'll repeat. My husband is an essential worker that often gets shafted. He got a letter proving he was essential if out state ever cared that he would use. He'd take the J&J shot without a blink of an eye. The mentality that people want a 'better shot' is not a good idea. It doesn't help us get to the end goal. While I appreciate what teachers do so much, all being vaccinated with a good shot - and the J&J shot is an excellent shot, don't even think it is lesser - is important for everyone, not yourself. If you hold out, you are not helping the world. You actually aren't helping yourself either in the end.

Again my husband would have taken the J&J shot in a heartbeat. For himself, for our family, and for the good of all. We need to understand that J&J is excellent!

I had no idea about PA. Oddly none of my friends moved there. Another friend had posted it to promote the idea that all teachers should be vaccinated just before they gave the go for their teachers.

I am thrilled we have 3 excellent vaccines coming. I read a little on the number my state was slated to get and glad for it. The more I did with the trial, the more optimistic I got. I was just worried about the efficacy. The 95% blew me away totally. I will totally admit that! I am a little saddened about what happened with AZ/Oxford though. I wouldn't have predicted that.

To be clear I’m actually not putting down the J&J shot. I have family who works for the company so we’ve always been fans. Given my risk level, there is still a part of me that wants the MRNA shots and I think that is going to be a natural reaction from many.. mostly because those came out first, have been advertised to be more effective, and have been used on more people at this point. The fact that J&Js vaccine is a one shot deal is actually concerning to some, thinking they are getting less protection. And it’s not about not getting vaccinated, just trying to say that people who have been working during this pandemic for months, might say eh I’d wait one more month for the two-dose deal.

 

[GoofGoof]

Where have you seen half the adult population by March?

Good question, not posed to me, but I’m going to geek out on some math if you don’t mind

There are 250M adults so half would be 125M. Right now 46M adults or 18% of the adult population has at least 1 shot. We will likely hit 50M or 20% of the adult population by end of Feb. Add in 20M JnJ shots in March and we are at 70M. That would mean we would need to hit 55M additional 1st shots in March for half The population to have gotten at least started. The manufacturers are expecting to ramp up to 200M doses delivered by end of March so that would mean 100M doses delivered in March. If we assume 75% of those doses are actually used in March that means 75M doses used. Of those doses 2/3 will be first shots and 1/3 2nd shots (this makes sense since we will likely have 25M people at the end of Feb who have had 1 shot but still need a 2nd in March). That means potentially 50M additional first doses. In theory all that math adds up to potentially enough first shots done by the end of March to cover about half of all adults (technically 120M which is 48%). I said potentially a bunch of times too since we have to actually get the doses and get them used.

That‘s only first shots and not both shots done. For both shots it would be around 70M done or a little under 30%, but remember newer data shows the vaccines are about 90% effective after 1 shot. We should start to see the impact on cases even if not everyone has both shots. It’s also possible that if there isn’t full overlap between naturally immune people due to infection and people vaccinated that even more than half the adult population has a high level of immunity by the end of March. Crazy good news if we actually get the doses and they get into people’s arms.

 

[seabreezept813]

I think that plan would largely be to appease the teacher unions in certain states that are preventing school to return until their teachers are vaccinated. If they got JnJ next week schools could reopen by the end of March or after Spring Break. If individual teachers decided to skip the JnJ vaccine and wait for a different brand that would be their right to do, but the unions could no longer hold up school under the condition that their members were not offered a vaccine yet. My kid‘s schools have been back for months now and their teachers still aren’t eligible in PA without a medical condition or 65+. I would guess most would be happy to get a one and done shot that they don’t even need to leave school for. Same would probably go for factory workers or grocery store clerks or FedEx drivers.

I definitely agree it could be used this way. Just speaking from experience that I know many just don’t feel as confident with a one shot deal and would hold out. We’ve been back since September as well without being up for a vaccine. I think what I’m getting at is if this vaccine just got approved and was handed to teachers after they were constantly criticized by the communities, government, etc. and put at the end of the vaccine line it could lead to distrust.

 

[Touchdown]

Where have you seen half the adult population by March?

100 million Moderna Vaccines promised my March 31st/2 doses=50 million Americans
120 million Pfizer Vaccines/2 doses=60 million Americans
20 million J&J Vaccines/1 dose=20 million Americans

50+60+20=130 million Americans vaccinated

130 million/251 million (adults in US)= 51.7%

 

[Disney Experience]

After Pfizer vaccine two shots. CBS NEWS REPORTED 50% not 95%. Against the UK, BRAZIL, and AFRICA STRAIN.

It is not known that the vaccine effectiveness is reduced. The studies to show that have not happened. I assume this is what you heard:
A little after 2:40 sec mark : https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-preventing-infection-key-return-normalcy/

Technically, the amount of protective antibodies is reduced by a lot. But they do not know if that is enough to impact the effectiveness., Reducing antibodies is not necessarily the same as reducing the effectiveness of a vaccine to prevent symptomatic covid.

Pfizer says South African variant could significantly reduce protective antibodies

(This February 17 story corrects headline and first paragraph to show the reduction was in the protective antibodies elicited by the vaccine, not the protection of the vaccine overall)

www.reuters.com

 

[Patcheslee]

To be clear I’m actually not putting down the J&J shot. I have family who works for the company so we’ve always been fans. Given my risk level, there is still a part of me that wants the MRNA shots and I think that is going to be a natural reaction from many.. mostly because those came out first, have been advertised to be more effective, and have been used on more people at this point. The fact that J&Js vaccine is a one shot deal is actually concerning to some, thinking they are getting less protection. And it’s not about not getting vaccinated, just trying to say that people who have been working during this pandemic for months, might say eh I’d wait one more month for the two-dose deal.

I can see one other positive that I like for a single shot: possible side effects will only be a 1 time deal. Honestly if side effects for Moderna or Pfizer put me on my rear for a day or two, I would be hesitant to want to go through it a second time. Very slim possibility of it being that bad. As far as effectiveness, I get a flu shot yearly with lower protection than these, so that isn't going to stop me personally.
I wonder if states are keeping track of how many haven't done the 2nd dose when scheduled.

 

[Disney Experience]

I can see one other positive that I like for a single shot: possible side effects will only be a 1 time deal. Honestly if side effects for Moderna or Pfizer put me on my rear for a day or two, I would be hesitant to want to go through it a second time. Very slim possibility of it being that bad. As far as effectiveness, I get a flu shot yearly with lower protection than these, so that isn't going to stop me personally.
I wonder if states are keeping track of how many haven't done the 2nd dose when scheduled.

For a lot of people who got side effects on the MRNA vaccines they had symptoms on the second shot, and very little on the first. That is not always the case. But I know in my case back in September with Pfizer, first shot just a sore arm for a day, second shot sore arm for a day and next day felt achy,chills, etc. Day after felt great.

 

[Disney Experience]

In regards to whether antibody levels are the absolute measure of vaccine effectiveness: Here is a paper that hints that B- cell mediated memory may be there even after antibodies decrease. Whether the B-cell mediated memory translates to an effective vaccine response to variants is not the subject of the paper, nor the relationship of B-cell memory and the antibody response level.

Eurosurveillance | Impact of age, ethnicity, sex and prior infection status on immunogenicity following a single dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine: real-world evidence from healthcare workers, Israel, December 2020 to January 2021

The BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine showed high efficacy in clinical trials but observational data from populations not included in trials are needed. We describe immunogenicity 21 days post-dose 1 among 514 Israeli healthcare workers by age, ethnicity, sex and prior COVID-19 infection...

www.eurosurveillance.org

Although these results are based on small numbers, i.e. 17 observations, they provide reassurance that the well documented rapid waning of nucleocapsid IgG antibodies post-acute COVID-19 infection [10] does not necessarily translate to a loss of immunity. The boost-like response seen among previously infected individuals in our cohort suggests B-cell-mediated memory immunity is preserved regardless of IgG status. Our study confirms recently published evidence suggesting that immune memory persists at least 6 months post infection [11]. One single case in our cohort who showed a boost-type response almost 10 months after testing positive by PCR suggests this could be even longer. In situations of scarce vaccine availability, it may therefore be possible to assume that most individuals with prior evidence of infection are not prioritised for vaccination, regardless of pre-vaccination IgG levels.

 

[GoofGoof]

I definitely agree it could be used this way. Just speaking from experience that I know many just don’t feel as confident with a one shot deal and would hold out. We’ve been back since September as well without being up for a vaccine. I think what I’m getting at is if this vaccine just got approved and was handed to teachers after they were constantly criticized by the communities, government, etc. and put at the end of the vaccine line it could lead to distrust.

I guess I don’t view the JnJ vaccine in a negative way so that’s probably the disconnect. By sending those doses directly to school districts it would be putting teachers at the front of the vaccine line not the end. People 65+ or with health conditions are still looking for appointments pretty much everywhere but teachers would go ahead of them and get a vaccine next week. I would see it as a huge positive benefit for teachers who otherwise wouldn’t be able to get a vaccine that soon. Obviously anyone who doesn’t want it could pass and wait for another vaccine.

The concept behind this is to roll it out to essential workers where the doses could go directly to work sites to be used very quickly since there is no need for a freezer and no need to schedule a follow up appointment. If not school districts it could go to grocery store chains or FedEx or Amazon or restaurant chains or factories. It would work well for any of those groups too.

 

[seabreezept813]

I guess I don’t view the JnJ vaccine in a negative way so that’s probably the disconnect. By sending those doses directly to school districts it would be putting teachers at the front of the vaccine line not the end. People 65+ or with health conditions are still looking for appointments pretty much everywhere but teachers would go ahead of them and get a vaccine next week. I would see it as a huge positive benefit for teachers who otherwise wouldn’t be able to get a vaccine that soon. Obviously anyone who doesn’t want it could pass and wait for another vaccine.

The concept behind this is to roll it out to essential workers where the doses could go directly to work sites to be used very quickly since there is no need for a freezer and no need to schedule a follow up appointment. If not school districts it could go to grocery store chains or FedEx or Amazon or restaurant chains or factories. It would work well for any of those groups too.

I think for me it’s the one shot vs two shot deal. J&J is working on a booster as we speak. That would definitely make an impact as well.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think for me it’s the one shot vs two shot deal. J&J is working on a booster as we speak. That would definitely make an impact as well.

I think there is a 50/50 shot we all end up getting a booster at some point for these new variants. The good news is that it doesn’t have to be from the same manufacturer. In theory someone who got a JnJ vaccine could get a Pfizer variant booster later on. The CDC said there is no issue with mixing vaccines. In theory once Pfizer and Moderna ramp up capacity to 50M doses manufactured in a month they could rollout 300M doses of a 3rd booster shot in about 3 months. If these variants cause any issues with the current vaccines that could start as soon as August and be done before Thanksgiving. It’s also possible that the variants won’t be a problem and we never need the booster. In that case it may be that the booster is given anyway but much later in the process, maybe in 2022 once worldwide demand is down.

 

[pixie225]

For a lot of people who got side effects on the MRNA vaccines they had symptoms on the second shot, and very little on the first. That is not always the case. But I know in my case back in September with Pfizer, first shot just a sore arm for a day, second shot sore arm for a day and next day felt achy,chills, etc. Day after felt great.

Husband got Pfizer vaccine Friday. Saturday arm was a bit sore - nothing to write home about, he said. By Sunday afternoon no soreness. Hoping no problems after 2nd vaccine. I get my Pfizer Wednesday, and special needs daughter gets it Friday. Will gladly put up with some arm soreness to be protected a bit!

 

[Kevin_W]

Our school district finished the 2nd doses of all their staff this week (schools went from hybrid to remote for the last 3 days of the week because they were expecting higher staff absences due to the shots). The district reports staff absences, so I'll be curious to see what the incidence of side effects in a relatively large population (~2000) were. My wife and a friend that had it were under the weather for 12 hrs or so, my parents had no effects at all.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Tracking COVID-19 vaccine distribution by state: How many people have been vaccinated in the US?

See how many COVID-19 vaccines your state received, and how many people have been given one so far.

www.usatoday.com

We are getting there.. slowly but surely.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Our school district finished the 2nd doses of all their staff this week (schools went from hybrid to remote for the last 3 days of the week because they were expecting higher staff absences due to the shots). The district reports staff absences, so I'll be curious to see what the incidence of side effects in a relatively large population (~2000) were. My wife and a friend that had it were under the weather for 12 hrs or so, my parents had no effects at all.

Our youngest daughter is a med student who frequently meets with patients.

She had fevers after both dosages. She is young, healthy, and athletic with no known allergies.

Both fevers were gone within 24 hours.

 

[ToTBellHop]

In our state our trigger is getting over 50% of the previous tier their first shot, which is why we are moving on.

J&J should really go to rural areas and/or transient communities unlikely to return for dose 2 first. Legal minefield aside, most of those J&J shot should go to the Dept of Corrections first.

I agree. Incidentally, survey data suggests that young adults and minorities, who are less interested (in the “wait and see” camp) in the current vaccines, would be more willing to get a 1-dose. This should really go to them if we want to move past the 55% of Americans who want the vaccine now, and instead vaccinate 75% of adults by July.

 

[correcaminos]

To be clear I’m actually not putting down the J&J shot. I have family who works for the company so we’ve always been fans. Given my risk level, there is still a part of me that wants the MRNA shots and I think that is going to be a natural reaction from many.. mostly because those came out first, have been advertised to be more effective, and have been used on more people at this point. The fact that J&Js vaccine is a one shot deal is actually concerning to some, thinking they are getting less protection. And it’s not about not getting vaccinated, just trying to say that people who have been working during this pandemic for months, might say eh I’d wait one more month for the two-dose deal.

I'm absolutely not saying I don't understand the mentality. I do, but I think we're hurting ourselves more if we feel this way as a whole. You pointed to what I was talking about - it's been advertised as more effective. We're failing our country by not talking about the positives of each shot and negatives more. I get that each individual might want to think about risk levels and such, but I was speaking as a whole. We're spinning the shots all wrong and it will hurt everyone in the end. And again my spouse was happy to get whatever he could because anything is good to him. That mentality is missing - we're pitting shots against each other and I think that's not great. Personally we should spin the 1 shot deal more and how that's a bonus. Imagine how easy it would be to set up clinics for businesses or schools. Then again we can also use it for others as well. There are many communities at higher risk and this could be an easy way to get more covered.

I agree. Incidentally, survey data suggests that young adults and minorities, who are less interested (in the “wait and see” camp) in the current vaccines, would be more willing to get a 1-dose. This should really go to them if we want to move past the 55% of Americans who want the vaccine now, and instead vaccinate 75% of adults by July.

Do you have studies showing this about marginalized people? I've only seen hesitation uniform among Blacks, Latinos, and Natives saying they don't trust any shot, not that J&J is trusted more because it is one dose. There is a difference for sure among young people and the others and why there is hesitation. Nothing I have seen points towards one vs two shots.

For a lot of people who got side effects on the MRNA vaccines they had symptoms on the second shot, and very little on the first. That is not always the case. But I know in my case back in September with Pfizer, first shot just a sore arm for a day, second shot sore arm for a day and next day felt achy,chills, etc. Day after felt great.

Yep, not always the case. With Pfizer/BioNTech I had almost identical reactions both times. Sore arm 2 days. 2nd shot I actually had minor stinging going in vs the 1st where I felt nothing and arm pain started faster but that was it. The amount of pain and length of time was nearly identical. Showing true for family members of mine as well. Some felt nothing either time. I have many friends who did feel worse the second but I'd say those were more rare and mostly just fatigue or minor fever.

Our school district finished the 2nd doses of all their staff this week (schools went from hybrid to remote for the last 3 days of the week because they were expecting higher staff absences due to the shots). The district reports staff absences, so I'll be curious to see what the incidence of side effects in a relatively large population (~2000) were. My wife and a friend that had it were under the weather for 12 hrs or so, my parents had no effects at all.

We were already in hybrid and had half days a few days this week. We were warned that we could have a calamity day that is school specific based too if absences were up. It was a possibility due to subs being vaccinated as well.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Do you have studies showing this about marginalized people? I've only seen hesitation uniform among Blacks, Latinos, and Natives saying they don't trust any shot, not that J&J is trusted more because it is one dose. There is a difference for sure among young people and the others and why there is hesitation. Nothing I have seen points towards one vs two shots.

KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: February 2021 | KFF

The Latest KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor finds a growing share of U.S. adults say they have already gotten at least one dose of the vaccine or want to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Black and Hispanic adults remain more likely to want to wait and see how the vaccine is working for others...

www.kff.org

"While the share that is most enthusiastic to get vaccinated increased across racial and ethnic groups, Black and Hispanic adults continue to be more likely than White adults to say they will “wait and see” before getting vaccinated. Nearly four in ten Republicans and three in ten rural residents say they will either “definitely not” get vaccinated or will do so “only if required,” as do one-third (32%) of those who have been deemed essential workers in fields other than health care.

...

With the potential arrival of a one-dose COVID-19 vaccine to the U.S. market, most of those who have not yet been vaccinated say the number of doses doesn’t make a difference in their own intentions, but about a quarter (26%) of those in the “wait and see” group say they’d be more likely to get a vaccine if only one dose was required."


White adults: 18% are "wait and see"
Black adults: 34% are "wait and see"
Hispanic adults: 26% are "wait and see"