Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[dreday3]

And since you brought up, positivity rate, that has also started to level off in the whole US:

View attachment 535300

Why are you upset because I said our positivity rate is dropping? What are you trying to prove me wrong about?

My god.

 

[danlb_2000]

Why are you upset because I said our positivity rate is dropping? What are you trying to prove me wrong about?

My god.

I am not upset about anything. You mentioned positivity rate going down in Illinois, which prompted me to look at that number and thought it was interesting that it had also leveled off at the country wide level. It's important to track the trend of the virus. This leveling off might be just a statistical issue, or it could be the start of another surge in cases.

 

[Disney Experience]

The study on Pfizer vaccine results in Israel as published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765

The graphs in the appendix are a easy quick way to see some interesting facts. Such as the hazard ratio is fun to see how the hazard increases for the unvaccinated (Relative to the days since first vaccination of the vaccinated group).
(Just another way (among many) to show that the vaccine works

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765/suppl_file/nejmoa2101765_appendix.pdf

 

[MrHappy]

Here is some data on JnJ:

While absolute numbers will vary from state-to-state, here in CT, we received 89,000 first doses this week. Next week, that rises to 100,000. We will also get 30,000 JnJ doses if it’s approved (the fact that they are announcing how many doses will be distributed shows it’s no longer a theoretical approval). So we effectively will go from starting vaccination of 89k this week to 130k next week (with no signs that we aren’t delivering 2nd doses as expected). That’s a 46% increase thanks to increased distribution from Pfizer and Moderna and the addition of a 3rd vaccine. Great news, indeed.

US total distribution was 13.5 million first doses this week and will apparently rise to 18.5 million next week (with JnJ). At that pace, it’s about 15 weeks to get first doses (only dose for those receiving JnJ) into arms of every American. Done in 19 weeks.

Which, as discussed, is faster than they’ll actually have all 328 million of us eligible.

I’m in CT too. Do you think all those JnJs are targeted to the teacher clinic sites? I do.

 

[seabreezept813]

They are not doing this as quickly as possible. They haven’t even started enrolling kids. If they are doing this as quickly as possible, why was Fauci suggesting all school-age children could receive vaccines as early as fall, but is now saying it will be 6 months later? The man is very intelligent. He thought fall 2021 was reasonable and is now saying early 2022. This suggests to me that the pharmaceuticals are not hitting the pace he thought was possible based upon his decades of experience.

I know how trials are run and how hard it will be to find enough kids to test multiple dosages and get data as case counts fall. That’s why they should be already enrolling. Any interest from parents in enrolling their kids is presently at its highest. If cases fall by as much as expected by summer, parental interest will be nonexistent as people will be too busy taking beach vacations.

And I’m not one to downplay the significance of developing vaccines this quickly. I have pointed out again and again that it is remarkable to go from discovering a virus to marketing its vaccine in 11 months.

If you can make a vaccine, test it on animals, then a small group of adults, report, and then test it on 30k or more adults and get EUA and shots into general population arms in 11 months, it should not take 12 months to do a Phase III with 3k kids.

As time goes by and grandmas and grandpas stop dying of COVID-19, people will become even less interested in vaccinating their kids. If they don’t vaccinate kids, we keep COVID-19 indefinitely, it’s just less dangerous than now and some years there will be more dangerous strains (like flu).

If that is the reality we are committing to (and the people making decisions are not stupid—they are well-aware of how vaccine acceptance should progress over time) then we might as well lift restrictions a couple months after the vaccines are widely available. The end result will be the same--about half of us will have artificially-induced active immunity from vaccine while the rest slowly develop naturally-acquired active immunity from getting sick (and some die). The first group gets a yearly booster while the other gets sick with each year’s dominant variants (and some more die). That’s about as good as herd immunity gets in free society with no vaccine mandates.

I think it’s also worth noting that kids may be mostly asymptomatic, but they could still have other long term health effects from covid in the future. I was speaking to our school nurse about this and she said the risk of some of the heart issue is seen in kids who were 100% asymptomatic. It just seems like something that never gets discussed. We shouldn’t just be letting kids get sick because we assume they’ll be fine...

 

[Touchdown]

I am not upset about anything. You mentioned positivity rate going down in Illinois, which prompted me to look at that number and thought it was interesting that it had also leveled off at the country wide level. It's important to track the trend of the virus. This leveling off might be just a statistical issue, or it could be the start of another surge in cases.

As the rates get close to zero, it gets harder to show steady decline. Eventually numbers will appear to flatline but that’s just because you can’t drop large amounts the closer you get to zero. WI’s raw numbers are doing this too but our %postive contines to decrease.

That said, I get more excited about the vaccinated numbers these days, nearly 15% have started the series, but tomorrow our >65 group will go over 50% (sitting at 49.4% currently.).

 

[_caleb]

Slow walking and hedging are fine, we all accept it in a lot of situations (Disney’s line wait signs, etc.)

What I will not accept is keeping restrictions in place if there is no reason, if there comes a time when community spread has clearly ceased, those need to be dropped in a timely manner.

Who is saying we should keep restrictions in place even if there’s no reason to have them? Isn’t it more a matter of people disagreeing on what those reasons might be? “Clearly” to one armchair virologist isn’t likely to be so clear to another.

 

[Touchdown]

Who is saying we should keep restrictions in place even if there’s no reason to have them? Isn’t it more a matter of people disagreeing on what those reasons might be? “Clearly” to one armchair virologist isn’t likely to be so clear to another.

I was discussing a hypothetical. We still have community spread. But as an analog, the CDC is taking their sweet time revising guidelines for fully vaccinated people who are now 20 million strong.

Slow walk expectations, but be much more prompt with removing restrictions when warranted.

 

[DisneyCane]

Evil Ron Desantis is at it again. If only somebody could convince him to try and get underserved people vaccinated.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Today the state announced the establishment of six COVID-19 vaccination sites — in addition to our Pahokee site — to provide greater access to the vaccine in underserved communities in the following counties: Broward, Duval, Leon, Miami-Dade, and Osceola. <a href="https://t.co/RP2Zyc3Hf0">pic.twitter.com/RP2Zyc3Hf0</a></p>&mdash; Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) <a href="">February 25, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Disney Experience]

Here are the various predictions of the models on the quantification of covid cases in the next few weeks all rolled into one chart.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/case-updates/National-Forecast-Incident-Cases-2021-02-22.jpg

 

[ToTBellHop]

I’m in CT too. Do you think all those JnJs are targeted to the teacher clinic sites? I do.

Absolutely. It’s too convenient of timing. And the way the Governor got all defensive today when a journalist asked if people would have a choice...absolutely. One shot and kids are back in school full-time by April.

It also simplifies things for existing clinics that can stick with 2-dose appointments for another month.

 

[MrHappy]

Absolutely. It’s too convenient of timing. And the way the Governor got all defensive today when a journalist asked if people would have a choice...absolutely. One shot and kids are back in school full-time by April.

It also simplifies things for existing clinics that can stick with 2-dose appointments for another month.

FYI, my kids go full time 100% back to normal on March 8. That better stick!

 

[hopemax]

Who is saying we should keep restrictions in place even if there’s no reason to have them? Isn’t it more a matter of people disagreeing on what those reasons might be? “Clearly” to one armchair virologist isn’t likely to be so clear to another.

While I was debating responding to like 20 different post, today, and skipping them all...the analogy I was thinking about is a pre-flight check list (airline safety is in my mind because those engine parts fell out of the sky 8 miles north of my house). Public safety is important so we create a set of procedures and guidelines that need to be followed "just in case." I'm betting a majority of the time, going through the list doesn't reveal an issue, and some steps are more likely to reveal an issue than others. But people still have to work through the checklist. You don't get to choose which ones to skip because everyone thinks it will probably be fine. And you certainly don't get to skip the checklist when it's a novel situation. Like a novel virus.

Everyone is so antsy about getting back to normal. But do you really want the pilots deciding which steps they can just blow through, because they probably won't turn up an issue, because the passengers want to get to their destination a little faster? Or are you reassured there is a process, annoying as it may be to wait. And certainly the process for this is longer than the 20 minutes an airline pilot is doing things, when the passengers are boarding.

 

[JoeCamel]

Evil Ron Desantis is at it again. If only somebody could convince him to try and get underserved people vaccinated.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Today the state announced the establishment of six COVID-19 vaccination sites — in addition to our Pahokee site — to provide greater access to the vaccine in underserved communities in the following counties: Broward, Duval, Leon, Miami-Dade, and Osceola. <a href="https://t.co/RP2Zyc3Hf0">pic.twitter.com/RP2Zyc3Hf0</a></p>&mdash; Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) <a href="">February 25, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Didn't you already post that today?

 

[JoeCamel]

Didn't you already post that today?

Maybe not, I saw it before in this thread or the NP one.

 

[ABQ]

Maybe not, I saw it before in this thread or the NP one.

You're likely thinking of this other announcement from 2 days ago.
This one:


As the one earlier today just came out earlier today.

That scoundrel governor is just up to something every day, it seems.

 

[JoeCamel]

You're likely thinking of this other announcement from 2 days ago.
This one:


As the one earlier today just came out earlier today.

That scoundrel governor is just up to something every day, it seems.

Nope, that same one with the evil comment

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Absolutely. It’s too convenient of timing. And the way the Governor got all defensive today when a journalist asked if people would have a choice...absolutely. One shot and kids are back in school full-time by April.

Hasn't most of CT been in school full-time since August?

I know in my neck of the woods we have been.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Hasn't most of CT been in school full-time since August?

I know in my neck of the woods we have been.

No—most are hybrid. My kids have been in full-time but the public schools are hybrid here. Not much longer, though.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

No—most are hybrid. My kids have been in full-time but the public schools are hybrid here. Not much longer, though.

Interesting. They tried to push us that way but the parents raised hell. We did hybrid with cohorts for two weeks, plus one week of remote when cases popped after Thanksgiving, but it's been smooth sailing besides that.