Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Fauci has become a real blow hard lately. He’s completely towing the political line and slow playing things. High school students will all be eligible for the Pfizer vaccine likely by April or May at the latest depending on when the trial ends and how soon we have enough doses for them. No reason to assume a bit into fall. That’s not even being conservative, just being lame.

Ps...as proof that this is really me and @DisneyCane did not hack my account I will add that I still think Trump was arguably the worst President of modern times...and Fauci has become a blow hard lately too

Spot on about Fauci! He really needs to stop opining and predicting and just stick to presenting facts. He should be completely and totally focused on speaking about the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines and working on building trust so that as many people as possible will want to be vaccinated.

Constantly spouting worst case scenarios to set low expectations is going to cause a "Doctor who cried wolf" scenario and more and more people will tune him out.

 

[Chi84]

Spot on about Fauci! He really needs to stop opining and predicting and just stick to presenting facts. He should be completely and totally focused on speaking about the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines and working on building trust so that as many people as possible will want to be vaccinated.

Constantly spouting worst case scenarios to set low expectations is going to cause a "Doctor who cried wolf" scenario and more and more people will tune him out.

Attention is addictive. The downturn started when Brad Pitt played him on SNL.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Without being insulting here, how old are you? I really am curious because mindsets do change often with age. Again I'm not being mean about it but just curious and also are you a parent?

My feelings as a parent is that they are doing what is safe which is why I am asking.


Two words: winter break
Also snow storms could have been a bigger issue as a whole

I’m 36, have two 8-year olds and am a college biology professor.

And you’re being insulting, regardless. Any timeline I am suggested has also been suggested by leading scientists. They were saying the goal was to vaccinate k-12 kids by September until a week ago. I didn’t make that up.

Apparently I need to avoid this thread as well to avoid being belittled for sharing science...as a scientist.

smh

 

[Touchdown]

False, my sister just got a request to enroll her 7 year old son in a joint Pfizer/Moderna study in Chicago.

Correction, that study is taking kids as young as 6 months. My 7 year old nephew and 3 year old niece have thrown their hats in the ring.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Fauci has become a real blow hard lately. He’s completely towing the political line and slow playing things. High school students will all be eligible for the Pfizer vaccine likely by April or May at the latest depending on when the trial ends and how soon we have enough doses for them. No reason to assume a bit into fall. That’s not even being conservative, just being lame.

Ps...as proof that this is really me and @DisneyCane did not hack my account I will add that I still think Trump was arguably the worst President of modern times...and Fauci has become a blow hard lately too

If you are correct, great. If Fauci is being truthful, you can then see why I’d say they are not going as quickly as possible. Shots to all school-age kids by September or October seems appropriately aggressive to me given how long trials take (3-4 months conservatively to enroll, a further month to get shot 2, 2 months follow up data gets us to September or so).

A further 4 months does not compute for me.

I respect Fauci but agree he needs to stop predicting timelines far in advance. Just say, “this is where we are, the vaccines are highly effective and safe, get them as soon as you can,” and follow that up with the forthcoming CDC guidelines of what you can do again once vaccinated. Carrots work better than pokes.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Correction, that study is taking kids as young as 6 months. My 7 year old nephew and 3 year old niece have thrown their hats in the ring.

That makes sense because Moderna announced today they’ll study 6-month olds to 11-year olds. Typically, you do 5-11.9 years then 2-4.9 years then 6-months to 23.9 months.

 

[correcaminos]

I’m 36, have two 8-year olds and am a college biology professor.

And you’re being insulting, regardless. Any timeline I am suggested has also been suggested by leading scientists. They were saying the goal was to vaccinate k-12 kids by September until a week ago. I didn’t make that up.

Apparently I need to avoid this thread as well to avoid being belittled for sharing science...as a scientist.

smh

Just was curious and no I wasn't being insulting, but I am truly sorry you felt that. It was 100% not my intent at all and I tried to convey that with my words around it. I truly was polling to see if you felt the way other parents do. So since I had no clue if you have kids, I wanted to ask. (edit: the age was to attempt to guess ages of kids if you did have them as an empty nester may feel differently than those with young kids) Though honestly, every time someone disagrees with you, you've done the "better leave" mentality. It's not necessary. We can agree to disagree and move on.

Though tbh a biology professor doesn't make you any more or less qualified as a parent for emotions

We don't all have to agree. I have followed what they are doing and why. I am comfortable with it. I get frustrations that this is not moving fast enough but they are getting there. As a parent, I am glad they are not just rushing in on things. I want it safe for kids since dosing will be different for young ones.

 

[sullyinMT]

Fauci has become a real blow hard lately. He’s completely towing the political line and slow playing things. High school students will all be eligible for the Pfizer vaccine likely by April or May at the latest depending on when the trial ends and how soon we have enough doses for them. No reason to assume a bit into fall. That’s not even being conservative, just being lame.

Ps...as proof that this is really me and @DisneyCane did not hack my account I will add that I still think Trump was arguably the worst President of modern times...and Fauci has become a blow hard lately too

Fauci is much more of a politician and bureaucrat than a scientist at this point. He is easily the most duplicitous scientist I have ever heard speak. Not saying he is a blowhard, but at this point to call him anything other than a pundit would be a gross exaggeration of his actual position.

Spot on about Fauci! He really needs to stop opining and predicting and just stick to presenting facts. He should be completely and totally focused on speaking about the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines and working on building trust so that as many people as possible will want to be vaccinated.

Constantly spouting worst case scenarios to set low expectations is going to cause a "Doctor who cried wolf" scenario and more and more people will tune him out.

He's always kinda talked out of both sides of the issue, and I have always given him the benefit of the doubt as he clearly wasn't coached politically and he seems especially uncomfortable with the camera. It can't be easy being someone in his position, and for the same reasons I've given passes to other DPHHS heads when thrust into the spotlight. That said, I agree with all 3 of you on his recent behavior.

What he says makes sense from a purely epidemiological standpoint, but for me he jumped the shark recently when talking about vaccinated family gatherings without masks but kids still not being able to hug grandma. I think it was @GoofGoof who rightfully said we could hear the nation's eyes collectively roll to the back of our heads. Especially since in the same week he was praising early data showing decreased transmissibility among the vaccinated.

 

[Turtlekrawl]

Probably to early to be concerned, but over the past 5 days the average cases in the US has stopped declining...

View attachment 535254

Florida is showing a similar leveling off..

View attachment 535255

Yes, seeing similar trends in other states, and in some European countries as well. Definitely something I’m keeping an eye on. Hope the vaccine rollout can pick up steam.

 

[sullyinMT]

We don't all have to agree. I have followed what they are doing and why. I am comfortable with it. I get frustrations that this is not moving fast enough but they are getting there. As a parent, I am glad they are not just rushing in on things. I want it safe for kids since dosing will be different for young ones.

This, 100%.

Imagine the collective voice if they (pharma and the FDA) would have just said, "Let's just bang out 5 and up, and get them vaccinated by July." The outrage would have been real and justified, and would have probably hurt any confidence gained in the recent months of fully vaccinating 8% of our adult population to date.

Kids would be the last in line, anyway, and they aren't dying or even presenting symptomatically at the same rate as adults. While we'll likely need some percentage of them to avoid catastrophic mutations and achieve herd immunity, I'm perfectly fine with them getting it right.

 

[sullyinMT]

If you are correct, great. If Fauci is being truthful, you can then see why I’d say they are not going as quickly as possible. Shots to all school-age kids by September or October seems appropriately aggressive to me given how long trials take (3-4 months conservatively to enroll, a further month to get shot 2, 2 months follow up data gets us to September or so).

A further 4 months does not compute for me.

I respect Fauci but agree he needs to stop predicting timelines far in advance. Just say, “this is where we are, the vaccines are highly effective and safe, get them as soon as you can,” and follow that up with the forthcoming CDC guidelines of what you can do again once vaccinated. Carrots work better than pokes.

Maybe he's hedging (a bit too much) on the extra 4 months to find sufficient infections? I honestly don't know. He is privy to the rate of enrollment, so another possibility is they just won't have the needed numbers for a September/October release to 5-11yo. I agree early Spring 2022 is too long, but personally would be ok with a slight extension to Thanksgiving/ChristmaChannuKwanza

 

[GoofGoof]

If you are correct, great. If Fauci is being truthful, you can then see why I’d say they are not going as quickly as possible. Shots to all school-age kids by September or October seems appropriately aggressive to me given how long trials take (3-4 months conservatively to enroll, a further month to get shot 2, 2 months follow up data gets us to September or so).

A further 4 months does not compute for me.

I respect Fauci but agree he needs to stop predicting timelines far in advance. Just say, “this is where we are, the vaccines are highly effective and safe, get them as soon as you can,” and follow that up with the forthcoming CDC guidelines of what you can do again once vaccinated. Carrots work better than pokes.

The only way Fauci could be correct is if he knows something about the current trial that’s not good. Unless your high school. kid is Doogie Howser they will be 12 or older and qualify as part of this current trial. It won’t be due to lack of doses that they can’t get vaccinated. We know we are expected to have 600M doses of Pfizer and Moderna by end of July and 100M J&J. That’s enough doses for 400M people. Backing further into the numbers if we exclude the 100M doses coming from Pfizer and Moderna in July that gives us enough vaccine for 350M people by the end of June (more than the total population). Moving back another month we knock off 100M more doses from Pfizer and Moderna delivered in June and 20M doses of JnJ and we still have enough doses for 280M people by the end of May. There are only 280M people in the US over 11 years old. If deliveries come in as projected we should have enough doses to cover every American 12 and up by the end of May. Even if there is a month or 2 delay in deliveries or vaccinations there is still zero reason to believe that High School age kids won’t have the opportunity to be vaccinated before the start of the school year.

If he wants to make a dire prediction like that he needs to back it up with some kind of facts and say its because he feels the vaccine deliveries will be months delayed or he feels that the current trial down to 12 year olds won’t be done until some time this fall which seems highly unlikely right now.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Maybe he's hedging (a bit too much) on the extra 4 months to find sufficient infections? I honestly don't know. He is privy to the rate of enrollment, so another possibility is they just won't have the needed numbers for a September/October release to 5-11yo. I agree early Spring 2022 is too long, but personally would be ok with a slight extension to Thanksgiving/ChristmaChannuKwanza

My take? He was being honest when he said fall, and then the administration told him to hedge—there are midterm elections next year, and it is better to underpromise and over deliver than the opposite (ask the last administration). Some hedging is appropriate because often times, science doesn’t choose to cooperate in the way we hope, but is is still saddening to see a continuing politicization of this issue. It is clearly being used by the controlling party to be a selling point next year. I don’t blame the politicians; I just wish science was allowed to be apolitical.

 

[Touchdown]

Slow walking and hedging are fine, we all accept it in a lot of situations (Disney’s line wait signs, etc.)

What I will not accept is keeping restrictions in place if there is no reason, if there comes a time when community spread has clearly ceased, those need to be dropped in a timely manner.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

My take? He was being honest when he said fall, and then the administration told him to hedge—there are midterm elections next year, and it is better to underpromise and over deliver than the opposite (ask the last administration). Some hedging is appropriate because often times, science doesn’t choose to cooperate in the way we hope, but is is still saddening to see a continuing politicization of this issue. It is clearly being used by the controlling party to be a selling point next year. I don’t blame the politicians; I just wish science was allowed to be apolitical.

I think it’s also about setting realistic expectations. Trump continued to say it would dissapear or that we were rounding the curve... and it kept getting worse.

Biden and Fauci want to be realistic about the timelines. Kind of like what Chapek said in the conference call... if there is a game changer great but here is what we are expecting for the rest of the year.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Here is some data on JnJ:

While absolute numbers will vary from state-to-state, here in CT, we received 89,000 first doses this week. Next week, that rises to 100,000. We will also get 30,000 JnJ doses if it’s approved (the fact that they are announcing how many doses will be distributed shows it’s no longer a theoretical approval). So we effectively will go from starting vaccination of 89k this week to 130k next week (with no signs that we aren’t delivering 2nd doses as expected). That’s a 46% increase thanks to increased distribution from Pfizer and Moderna and the addition of a 3rd vaccine. Great news, indeed.

US total distribution was 13.5 million first doses this week and will apparently rise to 18.5 million next week (with JnJ). At that pace, it’s about 15 weeks to get first doses (only dose for those receiving JnJ) into arms of every American. Done in 19 weeks.

Which, as discussed, is faster than they’ll actually have all 328 million of us eligible.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I think it’s also about setting realistic expectations. Trump continued to say it would dissapear or that we were rounding the curve... and it kept getting worse.

Biden and Fauci want to be realistic about the timelines. Kind of like what Chapek said in the conference call... if there is a game changer great but here is what we are expecting for the rest of the year.

Being conservative is fine if the messaging is consistent. It hasn’t been. But, communication is improving, in general—especially with states.

 

[GoofGoof]

Speaking of children’s trials. This article on a Moderna trial at MUSC in South Carolina says Theu are enrolling kids today and expect to start the first vaccinations in mid-March. The trial is going to include 6,500 kids aged 6 months to 12 at 100 sites worldwide. The first phase will include about 10% of kids and they will get different sized doses to determine the correct dose size. In that part of the trial all participants will get the vaccine. Once dose size is established they will then do a 3 to 1 ration with 3 kids vaccinated for every one in the placebo group. So real progress towards having all kids eligible before 2022 and maybe even by the start of the next school year. Ironically the article talks about Fauici saying that children as young as 1st graders may be able to get the vaccine as early as September for the start of the school year.

https://www.live5news.com/2021/02/24/musc-selected-participate-moderna-vaccine-trial-kids/

 

[sullyinMT]

I think it’s also about setting realistic expectations. Trump continued to say it would dissapear or that we were rounding the curve... and it kept getting worse.

Biden and Fauci want to be realistic about the timelines. Kind of like what Chapek said in the conference call... if there is a game changer great but here is what we are expecting for the rest of the year.

I understand the underlying gist of your point. And, mostly, I agree. The difference I see with Chapek's comment is that he needs to be honest with investors. If CNBC and Bloomberg would have run with "Disney CEO says masks will be off in time for the 50th," that would have been potentially misleading to investors even if that was their best of intentions right now. Clearly, selling corporate event packages for Harmonious this fall would show that internally they see things getting better FY Q4, maybe Q1 2022.

The WH underselling the timelines, or saying kids can't hug grandma even if 80%+ of the room is vaccinated during the family July 4 bbq, people will throw in the towel and not bother being vaccinated. They need to be in the business of selling hope, while being honest. So far, at least one member of each administration has failed to do one or the other.

 

[correcaminos]

Speaking of children’s trials. This article on a Moderna trial at MUSC in South Carolina says Theu are enrolling kids today and expect to start the first vaccinations in mid-March. The trial is going to include 6,500 kids aged 6 months to 12 at 100 sites worldwide. The first phase will include about 10% of kids and they will get different sized doses to determine the correct dose size. In that part of the trial all participants will get the vaccine. Once dose size is established they will then do a 3 to 1 ration with 3 kids vaccinated for every one in the placebo group. So real progress towards having all kids eligible before 2022 and maybe even by the start of the next school year. Ironically the article talks about Fauici saying that children as young as 1st graders may be able to get the vaccine as early as September for the start of the school year.

https://www.live5news.com/2021/02/24/musc-selected-participate-moderna-vaccine-trial-kids/

excellent news

Being conservative is fine if the messaging is consistent. It hasn’t been. But, communication is improving, in general—especially with states.

This has been a peeve of mine all along. Inconsistent messages never help. I get annoyed with my local state personally with the way it's handled since someone stepped down last year.