Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JAKECOTCenter]

I can honestly see a case to be made that Chapek would loosen restrictions by the 50th to make Disney “look good” based on if we’ve reached the herd immunity threshold

 

[Heppenheimer]

Quarantine exemption already is in recent CDC language. I'd expect similar guidance on group gatherings, and maybe international flight testing requirement exemptions for US citizens first. Then, as the EU and others continue to expand their rollouts, some type of CLEAR/pre-Check system. Those in the UK may need both doses of AZ. I'd expect whatever vaccine(s) is/are approved in your country of origin to be sufficient if that comes to fruition.

Vermont changed their quarantine requirements effective today. The changes:

1) If you are fully vaccinated, and greater than 14 days out since your last dose, you no longer need to quarantine or test negative to visit the state.

2) Vermont residents who meet the same requirement do not need to quarantine upon return if they leave the state for non-essential (ie, leisure travel) purposes.

The big caveat for visitors to Vermont, though: They still can not socialize (other than outdoors) with people who are not a part of their normal immediate household. So, this means that my now fully vaccinate mother from PA can visit Vermont without a quarantine, but she can't stay with me at my house.

The big caveat for vaccinated Vermont residents: Although we don't need to quarantine after returning to the state, we may still need to quarantine upon arrival at our destination, depending on the local rules.

So probably the only thing that will really change in the near future is that elderly or health care workers from out of state can come here to ski without a quarantine. I suspect we'll be deep into mud season (ie, worst time of the year to visit) before another substantial change occurs.

I assume that if Vermont, where the COVID rules have been particularly restrictive, has loosened their requirements, than the same is probably true with other states.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[sullyinMT]

I can honestly see a case to be made that Chapek would loosen restrictions by the 50th to make Disney “look good” based on if we’ve reached the herd immunity threshold

TSA still isn't at 2019/early 2020 levels (just under 50%), but TSA is processing nearly 1MM fliers a day even after the holidays. I'm sure Disney would like a piece of that pie as soon as reasonably possible. Perhaps we start seeing some aggressive hotel/package discounts. But, right now, FL still has a little over 4k people hospitalized for COVID, near last summer's ~5k peak. That's too many to look responsible and open capacity or additional offerings.

I'd rather see more offerings as opposed to loosened restrictions right now. Harmonious testing and other rumors hint that WDW brass sees it the same way, or at least believes that's what's holding people back from booking right now. But until WDW is putting heads on those resort pillows, we're stuck in limbo.

Ideally, we can collectively get to some threshold where 30%+ are fully vaccinated, double that have received at least one dose, and hospitalizations and deaths come crashing down the way they have in LTCFs. That's when we'll see the needle move a little more quickly, IMHO.

 

[havoc315]

We really have a problem in this country that changing recommendations based on new evidence is maligned, but randomly guessing based on zero evidence is applauded as long as you ended up guessing right.

You don't even have to guess right. You just have to give an answer (that people want to hear) with a lot of brash confidence and then not admit it when you're wrong.

 

[disneycp]

What's your evidence that it is "not going to happen now?" The vast majority of the population still has zero immunity to this virus and allowing it to spread unchecked creates the risk for more mutations that could diminish vaccines' effectiveness.

Masks are a simple and totally HARMLESS intervention, so there is zero reason to risk prematurely lifting those mandates. Your complaints and selfishness are not a reason, by the way.



We really have a problem in this country that changing recommendations based on new evidence is maligned, but randomly guessing based on zero evidence is applauded as long as you ended up guessing right.

Masks are not totally harmless for a variety of reasons (they impede communication, especially for people with hearing problems who rely on lip reading, they’re uncomfortable, they are a constant sign of disease, which causes mental distress) and to say they are is just foolish. and before you jump on your “you’re just selfish, I’m better than you because I actually care about people...” spiel that I know you have ready, I wear a mask every time I leave my house. But you’re not going to catch me acting like I love them and they should be the norm from now on. I swear, some of you build your entire identity around how willing you are to wear a mask. That’s great, let’s move on.

 

[correcaminos]

We really have a problem in this country that changing recommendations based on new evidence is maligned, but randomly guessing based on zero evidence is applauded as long as you ended up guessing right.

We seem to. To many love to hold onto a thought or quote from a year ago and not evolve with information. I like it when people say we guessed wrong based on information at the time - this is what we know now.

Some point fingers mockingly when info was wrong, or hold onto it like it's law (like the mask thing when PPE was in short supply). Growing and changing is good.

Masks are not totally harmless for a variety of reasons (they impede communication, especially for people with hearing problems who rely on lip reading, they’re uncomfortable, they are a constant sign of disease, which causes mental distress) and to say they are is just foolish. and before you jump on your “you’re just selfish, I’m better than you because I actually care about people...” spiel that I know you have ready, I wear a mask every time I leave my house. But you’re not going to catch me acting like I love them and they should be the norm from now on. I swear, some of you build your entire identity around how willing you are to wear a mask. That’s great, let’s move on.

They are mostly harmless. There are exceptions. I hate wearing them but I'm over those who whine about wearing and personal freedoms. Being in the middle isn't bad and likely should be done more.

 

[havoc315]

They are mostly harmless. There are exceptions. I hate wearing them but I'm over those who whine about wearing and personal freedoms. Being in the middle isn't bad and likely should be done more.

Very few exceptions and most (if not all) exceptions are psychiatric. (It could trigger panic in someone who had previously been kidnapped and gagged, for example). There really are no physical exceptions unless you're allergic to the material of the mask (in which case get a different material). None of the supposed respiratory excuses are legitimate. An asthmatic can wear a mask just fine.

 

[_caleb]

I swear, some of you build your entire identity around how willing you are to wear a mask.

I'm fascinated that you would think anyone here has "built their entire identity" around wearing a mask. Would you point us to a few posts that have led you to believe this?

 

[disneycp]

I'm fascinated that you would think anyone here has "built their entire identity" around wearing a mask. Would you point us to a few posts that have led you to believe this?

there are multiple examples in this very thread recently of people predicting mask use goes by the wayside once everyone has an opportunity to be vaccinated and someone else immediately popping up to say “masks don’t hurt anyone and removing them too early will be the chaos!” I’m sorry but if a vaccine isn’t an end for mask use then what on earth is? What is the end goal here...?

You can feel free to dig through the posts here if you so choose.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[_caleb]

there are multiple examples in this very thread recently of people predicting mask use goes by the wayside once everyone has an opportunity to be vaccinated and someone else immediately popping up to say “masks don’t hurt anyone and removing them too early will be the chaos!” I’m sorry but if a vaccine isn’t an end for mask use then what on earth is? What is the end goal here...?

You can feel free to dig through the posts here if you so choose.

Ok. I guess I misunderstood then. I thought you were saying that someone here had expressed that they loved wearing a mask, or that it was something they never wanted to end. Sorry!

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

We really have a problem in this country that changing recommendations based on new evidence is maligned, but randomly guessing based on zero evidence is applauded as long as you ended up guessing right.

This. This 1000%!

An asthmatic can wear a mask just fine.

Indeed. My das has terrible asthma which is why he always wears his mask and can't wait to get the vaccine... He doesn’t want to catch it!!!

Why is this so hard for people!?

 

[Chi84]

Very few exceptions and most (if not all) exceptions are psychiatric. (It could trigger panic in someone who had previously been kidnapped and gagged, for example).

Nonsensical and terribly insensitive.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 148 new reported deaths, along with 6 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Very few exceptions and most (if not all) exceptions are psychiatric. (It could trigger panic in someone who had previously been kidnapped and gagged, for example). There really are no physical exceptions unless you're allergic to the material of the mask (in which case get a different material). None of the supposed respiratory excuses are legitimate. An asthmatic can wear a mask just fine.

I have patients with severe COPD. Their breathing is completely unaffected by wearing a mask. A mask does not increase the work of breathing, decrease the available oxygen concentration or trap excess CO2 (which should be obvious to anyone who understand the basic physics and chemistry of gases).

I make an exception for one patient, based on a personal history of horrible abuse in childhood. But when I see her, I need to wear an N95 mask and face shield. Even though I am now fully vaccinated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can honestly see a case to be made that Chapek would loosen restrictions by the 50th to make Disney “look good” based on if we’ve reached the herd immunity threshold.

I’d hold off on the herd immunity planning. The Johns Hopkins assessment was interesting...until the Wall Street journal ran with it. The term “ulterior motives” was invented for the WSJ.

Now that may be true...but the current prediction of vaccine availability and distribution difficulties doesn’t point to April. July seems like a better benchmark.

I think it’s all but assured kids will be recommended too...adding another 60 mill to the pile.

 

[mmascari]

there are multiple examples in this very thread recently of people predicting mask use goes by the wayside once everyone has an opportunity to be vaccinated and someone else immediately popping up to say “masks don’t hurt anyone and removing them too early will be the chaos!” I’m sorry but if a vaccine isn’t an end for mask use then what on earth is? What is the end goal here...?

You can feel free to dig through the posts here if you so choose.

That's not (at least in my case) wanting masks to be around. That's pointing out that it's the wrong thing to measure. Masks, and all kinds of other mitigations, will go away when community spread is reduced to low.

Vaccine availability isn't the correct measure. Other than the assumption that once the vaccine is available to enough people, that should reduce community spread. If we don't get enough vaccine usage, not just availability, spread isn't going to be reduced. We'll be back to looking for other ways to reduce spread.

People should set their expectations and metric watching on the correct thing to avoid disappointment. (Beyond my disappointment that we'll probably reschedule our trip again, as I'm not confident the FL stats are going to improve enough in time.)

 

[havoc315]

Nonsensical and terribly insensitive.

??? No, it's fact. It's an example of the type of person who actually has a legitimate reason not to wear a mask.

 

[havoc315]

I’d hold off on the herd immunity planning. The Johns Hopkins assessment was interesting...until the Wall Street journal ran with it. The term “ulterior motives” was invented for the WSJ.

Now that may be true...but the current prediction of vaccine availability and distribution difficulties doesn’t point to April. July seems like a better benchmark.

I think it’s all but assured kids will be recommended too...adding another 60 mill to the pile.

July seems to be a realistic benchmark for when we get to a level of 70%-ish vaccination.

But even then, herd immunity isn't a switch. The way we get to herd immunity is that with most people vaccinated, the virus can find fewer and fewer people to infect. So with each reproductive cycle... fewer and fewer infections. Until it's all but gone.
If you instantly vaccinated 85% of the population today with JNJ, and it took instant effect... it would still be a few weeks to months before you reached herd immunity.