Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

On the vaccine front:

Biden announced on Thursday that the U.S. had secured contractual commitments from Moderna and Pfizer to deliver the 600 million doses of vaccine by the end of July — more than a month earlier than initially anticipated.

So not including any doses from JnJ or others the US will have enough doses for 90% of the population by the end of July.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think no matter what 15 to 20% of the country won't get vaccinated no matter what.

I think we will get just to that 80% mark.

Hopefully will be just enough.

Yep, polling has been consistent for months that a little under 20% will never get the vaccine or at least say they won’t. Everyone else has to follow through.

 

[DCBaker]

On the earning call, Chapek says we will have some level of social distancing and mask wearing for the rest of the year. However, no expectation of 6' distancing and masks wearing in 2022.

 

[BrianLo]

Pertinent to this thread from Bob Chapek, my paraphrase.

Mask and Social distancing for the rest of this year? Probably.

Masks and Social Distancing if it is no longer needed in 2022, Absolutely not.

 

[sullyinMT]

On the earning call, Chapek says we will have some level of social distancing and mask wearing for the rest of the year. However, no expectation of 6' distancing and masks wearing in 2022.

If they increase capacity and get close to their new limits, there’s no way they can get social distancing. Maybe the keep reduced capacity for TS restaurants or keep that super clear and unobtrusive plexi on everything.

Masks make sense, because they allow for closer to normal attendance targets as vaccine uptake increases. And without vaccinated kids, there’s no chance to really mitigate spread without them.

I also find the wording important. Some level of masking could mean for theater attendance or at attraction marquees/store entrances. Maybe we’ll be able to eat popcorn in the street or drink a Coke on a bus again.

 

[Virtual Toad]

First-hand knowledge of the vaccine rollout in Hillsborough County (Tampa) FL today, courtesy of my mother and father-in-law, who went together today to get their second doses of the vaccine, which thank goodness they did after a nearly four hour delay. 80 year olds stuck in their car in 8 lane traffic for hours.

The cause: reportedly the state took over from the county at the site today, and started denying the vaccine to folks who simply showed up like the card they received after their first vaccine dose told them to. Think of a Fastpass lane gone horribly wrong on a massive scale-- officials engaging in heated conversations with frustrated seniors who had every right to show up for their second dose, but were turned away because the state changed the rules at the last minute without telling them.

My wife and I were panicked after receiving calls from our frustrated parents, who were themselves suddenly panicked about possibly not receiving their second doses. But they were fortunate. Having not taken the return date notice on their cards for granted, they actively sought out actual follow-up appointments and brought additional proof of those appointments with them. So again, they are the lucky ones.

But there are a ton of extremely heartbroken, frustrated and disillusioned seniors in the Tampa Bay Area this evening. Keep them in your thoughts and hope the state gets its act together soon. The story is all over the news right now here and rightfully so. To think that we put our cherished elders through this because the state can't get its act together. Understanding that this thread now includes political discussion, am I allowed to express my anger and frustration at DeSantis and his administration for screwing this up? Enough is enough. He needs to be recalled and recalled now. If that is politically out of bounds for this thread I apologize and will remove the comment. But if the State of Florida thinks it's doing the job its citizens deserve in this crisis, they need to do some serious soul searching, get their act together and step up their game big time.

 

[Mark52479]

If they increase capacity and get close to their new limits, there’s no way they can get social distancing. Maybe the keep reduced capacity for TS restaurants or keep that super clear and unobtrusive plexi on everything.

Masks make sense, because they allow for closer to normal attendance targets as vaccine uptake increases. And without vaccinated kids, there’s no chance to really mitigate spread without them.

I also find the wording important. Some level of masking could mean for theater attendance or at attraction marquees/store entrances. Maybe we’ll be able to eat popcorn in the street or drink a Coke on a bus again.

I think this is exactly what they will do if we can get everyone vaccinated by end of summer.

They will slowly lift restrictions as the fall goes on. And then completely lift them by new year.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

On the vaccine front:

Biden announced on Thursday that the U.S. had secured contractual commitments from Moderna and Pfizer to deliver the 600 million doses of vaccine by the end of July — more than a month earlier than initially anticipated.

So not including any doses from JnJ or others the US will have enough doses for 90% of the population by the end of July.

It makes me wonder about the confidence level in the other vaccines expected to hit the market.

 

[JoeCamel]

First-hand knowledge of the vaccine rollout in Hillsborough County (Tampa) FL today, courtesy of my mother and father-in-law, who went together today to get their second doses of the vaccine, which thank goodness they did after a nearly four hour delay. 80 year olds stuck in their car in 8 lane traffic for hours.

The cause: reportedly the state took over from the county at the site today, and started denying the vaccine to folks who simply showed up like the card they received after their first vaccine dose told them to. Think of a Fastpass lane gone horribly wrong on a massive scale-- officials engaging in heated conversations with frustrated seniors who had every right to show up for their second dose, but were turned away because the state changed the rules at the last minute without telling them.

My wife and I were panicked after receiving calls from our frustrated parents, who were themselves suddenly panicked about possibly not receiving their second doses. But they were fortunate. Having not taken the return date notice on their cards for granted, they actively sought out actual follow-up appointments and brought additional proof of those appointments with them. So again, they are the lucky ones.

But there are a ton of extremely heartbroken, frustrated and disillusioned seniors in the Tampa Bay Area this evening. Keep them in your thoughts and hope the state gets its act together soon. The story is all over the news right now here and rightfully so. To think that we put our cherished elders through this because the state can't get its act together. Understanding that this thread now includes political discussion, am I allowed to express my anger and frustration at DeSantis and his administration for screwing this up? Enough is enough. He needs to be recalled and recalled now. If that is politically out of bounds for this thread I apologize and will remove the comment. But if the State of Florida thinks it's doing the job its citizens deserve in this crisis, they need to do some serious soul searching, get their act together and step up their game big time.

I saw this on the news tonight.
I went yesterday about noon for my first dose and only waited about 1/2 hour. Was amazed at the setup and it was running with military precision. I was surprised when they handed me my second appointment and was told just come sometime that day! I think this will be changed to appointment only by the time I need my second.
Glad they got through, many were turned away.

 

[BrianLo]

I think this is exactly what they will do if we can get everyone vaccinated by end of summer.

They will slowly lift restrictions as the fall goes on. And then completely lift them by new year.

Yes, that was my understanding from what Bob was saying... and to be legitimately fair to him he absolutely cannot say with certainty.

He alluded to if some of those measures could be hit earlier, they might follow suit. But he cited:
1. Widespread vaccination
2. Herd immunity
3. A bit of a waiting period after that before it would go away.


So for people concerned, it will go away. But no it's not going to go away when there are 100k new diagnosis a day either. I'm sure the broader scientific community will declare more or less herd immunity at some point and then Disney will start slowing lifting. Now is the time for patience and discipline in the final stretch!

 

[sullyinMT]

First-hand knowledge of the vaccine rollout in Hillsborough County (Tampa) FL today, courtesy of my mother and father-in-law, who went together today to get their second doses of the vaccine, which thank goodness they did after a nearly four hour delay. 80 year olds stuck in their car in 8 lane traffic for hours.

The cause: reportedly the state took over from the county at the site today, and started denying the vaccine to folks who simply showed up like the card they received after their first vaccine dose told them to. Think of a Fastpass lane gone horribly wrong on a massive scale-- officials engaging in heated conversations with frustrated seniors who had every right to show up for their second dose, but were turned away because the state changed the rules at the last minute without telling them.

My wife and I were panicked after receiving calls from our frustrated parents, who were themselves suddenly panicked about possibly not receiving their second doses. But they were fortunate. Having not taken the return date notice on their cards for granted, they actively sought out actual follow-up appointments and brought additional proof of those appointments with them. So again, they are the lucky ones.

But there are a ton of extremely heartbroken, frustrated and disillusioned seniors in the Tampa Bay Area this evening. Keep them in your thoughts and hope the state gets its act together soon. The story is all over the news right now here and rightfully so. To think that we put our cherished elders through this because the state can't get its act together. Understanding that this thread now includes political discussion, am I allowed to express my anger and frustration at DeSantis and his administration for screwing this up? Enough is enough. He needs to be recalled and recalled now. If that is politically out of bounds for this thread I apologize and will remove the comment. But if the State of Florida thinks it's doing the job its citizens deserve in this crisis, they need to do some serious soul searching, get their act together and step up their game big time.

Yeah that sounds like an unmitigated disaster. Could be the state has taken over because that site/series of sites has botched this and there’s a clear scientific need for both doses based on trial data. Hopefully they get it sorted out, and quickly. Why there wouldn’t be specified appointment windows is baffling.

 

[GoofGoof]

It makes me wonder about the confidence level in the other vaccines expected to hit the market.

Not at all. It makes perfect sense to buy enough doses of Pfizer and Moderna just in case. If we don’t need them they are easy to resell. Out friends up North in Canada aren’t expecting to have enough doses for themselves until the end of 2021. I’m sure they will be thrilled to take 50 or 60M extra doses off our hands in July if we don’t need them. Better to have too much vaccine just in case.

The US is obligated to purchase 100M doses from JnJ and 100M from Novavax and I think 200M from AstraZenneca whether we need them or not as long as they get FDA approval. If you add in 600M from Pfizer/Moderna now we are contracted to buy enough doses for 550M people which will likely be enough for about twice as many people who want one. Some of those extra doses will be sold and some may be donated to countries that can’t afford the vaccine.

 

[MisterPenguin]

This 'new' vaccine distribution info was known this past weekend. I guess only now it's 'officially announced.'

See the non-political vaccine thread...

K, thanks.

Update...

Here's what I got so far (in millions):

• Pfizer: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 120 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Moderna: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Astrazeneca/Oxford: 150 doses (75 people vaccinated). End of May, 75 doses. End of Summer, 75 doses.
• Novavax: 110 doses (55 people vaccinated). End of May, 110 doses.
• J&J: 200 doses (an extra 100 was ordered) which is 200 people vaccinated (only 1 dose needed). End of March, 60 doses. End of June, 40 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.

That is a total of 715 people vaccinated. Twice the population of the U.S.


Timeline in adults vaccinated and percentage of all adults:

• End of March: 210 adults vaccinated. 68% of all adults.
• End of May: 280 more adults vaccinated for a total of 490 theoretical adults vaccinated. 159% of all adults.
• End of Summer: 225 more adults vaccinated for a total of 715 theoretical adults vaccinated. 231% of all adults.

We could hit herd immunity by the end of March. Certainly by the end of April unless the three other vaccines never get approved.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Not at all. It makes perfect sense to buy enough doses of Pfizer and Moderna just in case. If we don’t need them they are easy to resell. Out friends up North in Canada aren’t expecting to have enough doses for themselves until the end of 2021. I’m sure they will be thrilled to take 50 or 60M extra doses off our hands in July if we don’t need them. Better to have too much vaccine just in case.

The US is obligated to purchase 100M doses from JnJ and 100M from Novavax and I think 200M from AstraZenneca whether we need them or not as long as they get FDA approval. If you add in 600M from Pfizer/Moderna now we are contracted to buy enough doses for 550M people which will likely be enough for about twice as many people who want one. Some of those extra doses will be sold and some may be donated to countries that can’t afford the vaccine.

Right, but I have been seeing talk of using J&J as a placeholder for now until people can get the RNA ones. I wonder if they might be preparing for the plan of eventually getting everyone the RNA one. (if they want that one). It could also be they will use RNA for initial and then J&J for boosters. Who knows at this point, but it does have me asking questions.

 

[Virtual Toad]

I saw this on the news tonight.
I went yesterday about noon for my first dose and only waited about 1/2 hour. Was amazed at the setup and it was running with military precision. I was surprised when they handed me my second appointment and was told just come sometime that day! I think this will be changed to appointment only by the time I need my second.
Glad they got through, many were turned away.

See if you can make calls and proactively seek a formal second appointment. That's what our folks did and apparently it paid off. My mom's at home resting now, but my father in law is still stuck in rush hour traffic trying to get home, bless his heart. Glad you got your first dose and best wishes for your second. Here in the 49 to 54 age group (plus our tween/teen sons) we continue to watch and wait. All from home (for nearly a year now) but thank goodness we love each other and get along...

 

[Virtual Toad]

Yeah that sounds like an unmitigated disaster. Could be the state has taken over because that site/series of sites has botched this and there’s a clear scientific need for both doses based on trial data. Hopefully they get it sorted out, and quickly. Why there wouldn’t be specified appointment windows is baffling.

That baffled us as well after our parents got their first dose and were told "just come back on the date on the back of the card." Being proactive helped them get their second doses when so many others were turned away. Like JoeCamel posted a short time ago, his first dose experience was one of efficiency and precision, which is the same experience our parents had on the day of their first dose. In and out, right on time and with no delay. Hard to understand how the second dose experience (at the same site) was the complete opposite.

 

[DCBaker]

"Walmart has opened up vaccination appointments to people under 65 who are deemed highly vulnerable to COVID-19, a group eager for the vaccine, but who had previously been largely unable to get doses in Florida as Gov. Ron DeSantis stressed a “seniors first” approach."

"Speaking this week in Jacksonville, DeSantis said he “absolutely” wanted to enable hospitals to vaccinate people younger than 65 who have comorbidities, such as cancer patients, but seemed to explicitly rule out retailers taking on that role.

“Really, it’s either got to be in a doctor’s office or in a hospital for that to be done,” he said. “I would hate to have a place like Publix, where someone comes in and they’re 35 and they say they have a comorbidity, and then Walmart or Publix has to referee that.”

But when Walmart began booking appointments on its own portal this week, it listed among eligible recipients, “Florida resident deemed to be extremely vulnerable to COVID-19 by hospital providers.” It also lists Florida residents who are 65 and older, who live or work in a long term care facility and health care workers who provide direct care to patients.

Walmart representatives didn’t immediately comment on the company’s approach to administering the vaccine program."

Walmart mistakenly offered COVID-19 vaccine to medically vulnerable Floridians under 65

When Walmart launched its COVID-19 vaccine appointment website Thursday, it included among those eligible in Florida people younger than 65 deemed highly vulnerable to the disease, many of whom had…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[Disney Experience]

Covid-19 vaccination rates follow the money in states with the biggest wealth gaps, analysis shows

Connecticut has the most glaring disparity in vaccination rates between its richest and poorest communities — a difference of 65% — according to a STAT analysis of vaccine data in 10 states with the biggest wealth gaps.

www.statnews.com

Florida vaccination rate of rich vs poor is much better than many states including California. So the reach out by the Florida Governor to minimize the gap is working better than what California is doing. Perfect? No. But perfection is not what is required in getting shots into the arms of the public. Getting the community, companies, and the people to work together to get people to know why they should get vaccinated and get vaccinated. Local sites (Whether pharmacies/stores, online sites, or church or community centers ) can help get the word out and shots into the arms. Florida from the above data has had some success in this.

 

[Disney Experience]

"Walmart has opened up vaccination appointments to people under 65 who are deemed highly vulnerable to COVID-19, a group eager for the vaccine, but who had previously been largely unable to get doses in Florida as Gov. Ron DeSantis stressed a “seniors first” approach."

"Speaking this week in Jacksonville, DeSantis said he “absolutely” wanted to enable hospitals to vaccinate people younger than 65 who have comorbidities, such as cancer patients, but seemed to explicitly rule out retailers taking on that role.

“Really, it’s either got to be in a doctor’s office or in a hospital for that to be done,” he said. “I would hate to have a place like Publix, where someone comes in and they’re 35 and they say they have a comorbidity, and then Walmart or Publix has to referee that.”

But when Walmart began booking appointments on its own portal this week, it listed among eligible recipients, “Florida resident deemed to be extremely vulnerable to COVID-19 by hospital providers.” It also lists Florida residents who are 65 and older, who live or work in a long term care facility and health care workers who provide direct care to patients.

Walmart representatives didn’t immediately comment on the company’s approach to administering the vaccine program."

Walmart mistakenly offered COVID-19 vaccine to medically vulnerable Floridians under 65

When Walmart launched its COVID-19 vaccine appointment website Thursday, it included among those eligible in Florida people younger than 65 deemed highly vulnerable to the disease, many of whom had…

www.orlandosentinel.com

So the question is does Walmart accept a "note" from a hospital? Do they verify it? Seems like it brings back the problem that was trying to be avoided by having hospitals do those exceptions.

 

[GoofGoof]

2M doses administered today. 1,621,693 daily doses for the 7 day moving average. Hopefully north of 2M daily doses by end of Feb with JnJ rolling in starting in March and pushing to 3M+ end of March.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?