Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[baymenxpac]

Large numbers, like population figures, and small percentages still create huge impacts when the impact for a single event is so significant.

I looked up population numbers. https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf

The categories aren't exactly the same, but close, and ten years old. I've also assumed only 60% of the total population in each category is infected.

				Max Infected
Group	Risk	Group	Population	60%	Risk Total
0-19	0.003%	Under 18	72,293,812	43,376,287	1,301
20-49	0.02%	18-44	112,183,705	67,310,223	13,462
50-69	0.50%	56-64	61,952,636	37,171,582	185,858
70+	5%	65+	34,991,753	20,995,052	1,049,753

Population * 60% * Risk% = Risk Total. That's 1,250,374 deaths including a million plus seniors. The 0.50% doesn't feel so good once the numbers are very large.

It's not to bad in the Under 18 group at a society level, but still devastating for over a thousand. Again, if Space Mountain had a 0.003% risk of death for each rider, nobody would ride it.

again, you didn't read the whole thing. growth is not exponential, and there is inherent immunity in the population. these are legitimately easy principles to grasp provided you're focused on more than, 1) doing back-of-the-napkin math that literally any 1st grader could do, and 2) being right just for the sake of being right. all the time you spent making a spreadsheet could have been used reading up on the immune system, specifically t-cell response regardless of known exposure to COVID, and how we've already discovered robust memory not only post-COVID infection, but also in populations with no known COVID exposure.

also, if you're really concerned about seniors, know that when you do lockdowns or other NPIs, all you're doing is leveling out the population's likelihood of exposure. if you put let populations that have ~0 risk to this carry the bulk of the exposure, then you get to population resistance more quickly with less death. equal exposure for all populations means more death.

again, these aren't complex concepts. they're only complex if viewing them through a lens that has motivation to misunderstand them.

 

[brianstl]

Large numbers, like population figures, and small percentages still create huge impacts when the impact for a single event is so significant.

I looked up population numbers. https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf

The categories aren't exactly the same, but close, and ten years old. I've also assumed only 60% of the total population in each category is infected.

				Max Infected
Group	Risk	Group	Population	60%	Risk Total
0-19	0.003%	Under 18	72,293,812	43,376,287	1,301
20-49	0.02%	18-44	112,183,705	67,310,223	13,462
50-69	0.50%	56-64	61,952,636	37,171,582	185,858
70+	5%	65+	34,991,753	20,995,052	1,049,753

Population * 60% * Risk% = Risk Total. That's 1,250,374 deaths including a million plus seniors. The 0.50% doesn't feel so good once the numbers are very large.

It's not to bad in the Under 18 group at a society level, but still devastating for over a thousand. Again, if Space Mountain had a 0.003% risk of death for each rider, nobody would ride it.

It would actually make more sense to isolate the elderly and others with know comorbidities than attempting to isolate the whole world from each other.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't agree with @Tink242424 and believe me she's laughed at plenty of my posts in another forum. Even though her Mom is at peace with dying from Covid, as her child I wouldn't be okay with that position.

That being said, I think there is a middle ground somewhere. The numbers suck, we have to do something to limit them. Masks, social distancing and forcing companies to work remotely where possible is what we can do in the short-term. Lockdown again? Maybe, maybe not?

The only way we are getting out of this mess is with a vaccine. Even a vaccine won't solve it overnight, but over a couple of years, it will.

In a twisted way, if we all felt certain about a vaccine being released early in 2021, I'd almost encourage another lockdown. It buys us time to vaccinate one another.

But in another strange perverse way, what if we never get a vaccine? What if EOY 2020 turns into Spring turns into Summer, turns into Fall turns in 2022? We have to ponder that scenario. We lockdown until the curve flattens. Soften our grip (like we did) it's just going to rear it's ugly head again and again. I'm certainly not advocating pushing forward in that scenario, but we just can't lockdown forever.

I don't have a solution, it's just all of it sucks. I can kind of respect all viewpoints with it, as long as they are being considerate of others.

The problem as I see it...is that we did not try the aggressive testing/isolation approach that has been the most successful method around the world.

Not even close...it was mongelized for money, politics, ego and refighting the battle of Shiloh for zero valid reason.

None.

And the stupidity of it is: the money has been preserved for those that have power right up front. A liquid injection into the markets preserved the wealth...the money pain, losses and emotional hardships are being suffered by the masses.

And yet...the majority isn’t smart enough to stop and call BS on the whole thing. This is a gladiator fight being fought with dull “opinions” used as weapons.

 

[Chi84]

It would actually make more sense to isolate the elderly and others with know comorbidities than attempting to isolate the whole world from each other.

Well that’s a new theory.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It would actually make more sense to isolate the elderly and others with know comorbidities than attempting to isolate the whole world from each other.

So give me a plan in 3 sentences or less of how to accomplish that?

Make sure you cover everything. You have :30 seconds

 

[hopemax]

So while we go round and round again, mathematical models are predicting Belgium's health care system will collapse in 10 days (reported 3 days ago, so I guess in a week now). Covid is not helping with the tensions between the Walloons, Flemish and German-speaking areas. So if countries get torn apart, I guess we won't be the only one.

 

[Mr Ferret 75]

One person laughed at this comment. That’s an example of why the world is still in such a mess.

View attachment 510035

Shame Australia and other places around the world have had no success with lockdowns. It might give a way forward for the rest of the grown up world .

 

[brianstl]

The problem as I see it...is that we did not try the aggressive testing/isolation approach that has been the most successful method around the world.

Not even close...it was mongelized for money, politics, ego and refighting the battle of Shiloh for zero valid reason.

None.

And the stupidity of it is: the money has been preserved for those that have power right up front. A liquid injection into the markets preserved the wealth...the money pain, losses and emotional hardships are being suffered by the masses.

And yet...the majority isn’t smart enough to stop and call BS on the whole thing. This is a gladiator fight being fought with dull “opinions” used as weapons.

The problem with mass shut downs and isolation from each other even when done with extreme effectiveness, is it only delays the spread to when you open back up and people start to congregate together indoors.

 

[LittleBuford]

That’s the wow emoji. I meant the one that looks dejected and maybe a bit sad and judgmental that people just aren’t . . . Never mind.

Did I get it right this time? I don't view that little fellow as judgemental, but I guess it's in the eye of the beholder.

Perhaps the emojis could all be replaced with the heads of Disney characters (Donald for angry, Mickey for happy, Eeyore for sad, etc.).

 

[Communicora]

I can’t disagree there. I think a consistent message would help a lot and I do believe most people want to do what’s right. It’s not like people are looking to go out and infect other people. There is a lot of conflicting info out there and the politicians peddling conspiracy theories and outright lies doesn‘t help either.

For example, what is the guideline for Thanksgiving get togethers? I have a friend that I talked to about the topic and they said they were still doing Thanksgiving with their whole family and didn’t think it was a big deal because the total number of people would be under 25 so they were within the guidelines for a group gathering. I don’t think it’s any less risk if 24 family members get together indoor with no masks vs 25 and I’ve heard some “experts” suggest not to get together at all but there hasn’t been a consistent message. I don’t believe everyone would follow all the recommendations but it would be a step in the right direction to at least make them and let people decide.

People made fun of the guidelines California released but they are very clear and based on the current scientific consensus on how the virus is spread.

 

[HongKongFooy]

Would you play Russian Roulette? Because that's basically what you're proposing. NO ONE knows how their body is going to react to the virus ahead of time. It's a complete roll of the dice.

Not even close:

Russian Roulette would typically be 1 bullet in a 6 shooter revolver.

Rolling two 6 sided dice and coming up with "snakes" is 1 out of 36




Ya, I think I'll take my chances with Corona based on my age and general health.

 

[easyrowrdw]

So give me a plan in 3 sentences or less of how to accomplish that?

Make sure you cover everything. You have :30 seconds

"Grandma, go inside."

 

[Lilofan]

"Grandma, go inside."

Good luck doing this 3K miles away.

 

[mmascari]

again, you didn't read the whole thing. growth is not exponential, and there is inherent immunity in the population. these are legitimately easy principles to grasp provided you're focused on more than, 1) doing back-of-the-napkin math that literally any 1st grader could do, and 2) being right just for the sake of being right. all the time you spent making a spreadsheet could have been used reading up on the immune system, specifically t-cell response regardless of known exposure to COVID, and how we've already discovered robust memory not only post-COVID infection, but also in populations with no known COVID exposure.

Fine, it's not 60%. What's the percent of the population that will get it? What's the magic guess after we're subtracted all the people that have inherent immunity? When do we top off and all the people that will get it have gotten it?

also, if you're really concerned about seniors, know that when you do lockdowns or other NPIs, all you're doing is leveling out the population's likelihood of exposure. if you put let populations that have ~0 risk to this carry the bulk of the exposure, then you get to population resistance more quickly with less death. equal exposure for all populations means more death.


again, these aren't complex concepts. they're only complex if viewing them through a lens that has motivation to misunderstand them.

Follow the conversation flow. The conversation has been that the virus is gonna virus and there's nothing we can do. Hence, everyone will get it eventually. But, it's such low risk, we don't need to worry. The point is, with that perspective, the raw number of infected will be HUGE. A number most people do not interact with on a normal basis. That when numbers get that large, even 0.01% isn't a small raw number anymore. Combined with when the impact is so severe.

Clearly, I think we should do actions to reduce the number of infected. With the tools appropriate based on the current community conditions.

 

[danlb_2000]

It would actually make more sense to isolate the elderly and others with know comorbidities than attempting to isolate the whole world from each other.

So you advocating isolating around 50% of the US population?

 

[brianstl]

So give me a plan in 3 sentences or less of how to accomplish that?

Make sure you cover everything. You have :30 seconds

A plan like that would never get off the ground because it would be deemed discrimination by too many people.

None of the other plans will work either. As soon as you open back-up spread will start again. The virus is too easily spread indoors during casual social gathering, you have way too many carriers who will never develop one symptom and the worlds population moves across borders with great freedom.

 

[brianstl]

So you advocating isolating around 50% of the US population?

Shut downs are advocating isolating far more than that.

 

[DCBaker]

"AdventHealth is now a testing site for Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine trial, aiming to recruit 4,500 adults during the next eight weeks.

“We want to bring the vaccine to where it can do the most good – in those communities and groups most at-risk for COVID-19,” according to an AdventHealth statement, encouraging participation by volunteers from diverse backgrounds, including African Americans, Hispanics, seniors and front-line health workers.

Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine trial is one of 11 large-scale trials that are going through the final phase of testing before a decision for approval. In Central Florida, several institutions are participating in vaccine trials, including Orlando Immunology Center, which is testing an investigational vaccine by British drug-maker AstraZeneca.
Individuals who want to participate the Johnson & Johnson trial at AdventHealth need to be 18 years and older. They must be in good or stable health."

"The vaccine is only one dose. Volunteers will receive either a dose of the investigational vaccine or a placebo and will be in the trial for up to two years and one month. They may receive compensation for travel-related expenses.

The vaccine or placebo will be administered to approved participants at the AdventHealth Orlando Translational Research Institute, East Orlando and Kissimmee campuses."

AdventHealth recruiting volunteers for COVID-19 vaccine trial

AdventHealth is now a testing site for Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine trial, aiming to recruit 4,500 adults during the next eight weeks. “We want to bring the vaccine to where…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The problem with mass shut downs and isolation from each other even when done with extreme effectiveness, is it only delays the spread to when you open back up and people start to congregate together indoors.

Because nobody is advocating a mass shutdown !!

Whoever is saying that to you is lying to sell more ads for Supplemental Medicare plans and diabetes supplies.

Test and trace...then isolate. That has been the qualified medical directive since day one. Lockdown was for stopping mass community spread. No one suggested it would “die out”

People have to use their ears AND their brains...as opposed to other organs that don’t have such refined neurons.

 

[Mr Ferret 75]

Because nobody is advocating a mass shutdown !!

Whoever is saying that to you is lying to sell more ads for Supplemental Medicare plans and diabetes supplies.

Test and trace...then isolate. That has been the qualified medical directive since day one. Lockdown was for stopping mass community spread. No one suggested it would “die out”

People have to use their ears AND their brains...as opposed to other organs that don’t have such refined neurons.

My ears have refined neurons?