Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDebRob]

in light of yesterday's exchanges on herd immunity, i want to share with you all this interview with dr. gupta. it's better coming from the horse's mouth than some jabroni like me banging away on a keyboard:

Again my friend, this deserves reposting.Even after listening to the video.


There are several reasons why herd immunity isn’t the answer to stopping the spread of the new coronavirus:

1. There isn’t yet a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Vaccinations are the safest way to practice herd immunity in a population.
2. The research for antivirals and other medications to treat COVID-19 is ongoing.
3. Scientists don’t know if you can contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 more than once.
4. People who contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 can experience serious side effects. Severe cases can lead to death.
5. Doctors don’t yet know exactly why some people who contract SARS-CoV-2 develop severe COVID-19, while others do not.
6. Vulnerable members of society, such as older adults and people with some chronic health conditions, could get very sick if they’re exposed to this virus.
7. Otherwise healthy and younger people may become very ill with COVID-19.
8. Hospitals and healthcare systems may be overburdened if many people develop COVID-19 at the same time.
9. It isn’t the answer for this virus.

 

[GoofGoof]

Herd immunity is a theory but we really won’t know if it’s achievable without trying it and if it didn’t work the outcome would obviously be a train wreck. The biggest problem is the time it would take. As discussed already in great detail the concept of protecting the high risk group indefinitely while we wait for everyone else to be infected is inherently flawed because the high risk group is too large and it would take way too long.

I do have a radical idea that could work if enough people agreed to it. Instead of locking away the high risk group for months or even years to wait for enough people to be infected with Covid to reach natural herd immunity why not just ask for volunteers and purposely infect them with Covid. Since the virus is no big deal for anyone not in the high risk group I assume people would gladly sign up. Then we reach herd immunity and the virus is gone. The high risk group just has to get locked away for several weeks while the rest are infected. Problem solved. I’m only being partially serious here because I think you’d get less than 10% of the population to sign up at most. It’s easy to say I don’t care if I get infected or it’s no big deal but few people would put their money where their mouth is.

The truth is people want to do what they want and they think it won’t infect them because it hasn’t so far. Very few people are actually perfectly fine with being infected yet that’s the proposal with natural herd immunity.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Herd immunity is a theory but we really won’t know if it’s achievable without trying it and if it didn’t work the outcome would obviously be a train wreck. The biggest problem is the time it would take. As discussed already in great detail the concept of protecting the high risk group indefinitely while we wait for everyone else to be infected is inherently flawed because the high risk group is too large and it would take way too long.

I do have a radical idea that could work if enough people agreed to it. Instead of locking away the high risk group for months or even years to wait for enough people to be infected with Covid to reach natural herd immunity why not just ask for volunteers and purposely infect them with Covid. Since the virus is no big deal for anyone not in the high risk group I assume people would gladly sign up. Then we reach herd immunity and the virus is gone. The high risk group just has to get locked away for several weeks while the rest are infected. Problem solved. I’m only being partially serious here because I think you’d get less than 10% of the population to sign up at most. It’s easy to say I don’t care if I get infected or it’s no big deal but few people would put their money where their mouth is.

The truth is people want to do what they want and they think it won’t infect them because it hasn’t so far. Very few people are actually perfectly fine with being infected yet that’s the proposal with natural herd immunity.

Unfortunately, your idea doesn't take into account that some very healthy people suffer severe consequences and some die after becoming infected with COVID-19. The percentage is small, but I don't know a single, rational person that would volunteer for such an experiment.

My SIL is DISGUSTINGLY healthy. Ex model who eats a healthy diet, works out regularly, looks maybe 10 years younger than her actual age. She is also an x-ray tech at a hospital...and was infected early in the pandemic. She was in bed for a week struggling to breathe.

 

[GoofGoof]

Again my friend, this deserves reposting.Even after listening to the video.


There are several reasons why herd immunity isn’t the answer to stopping the spread of the new coronavirus:

1. There isn’t yet a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Vaccinations are the safest way to practice herd immunity in a population.
2. The research for antivirals and other medications to treat COVID-19 is ongoing.
3. Scientists don’t know if you can contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 more than once.
4. People who contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 can experience serious side effects. Severe cases can lead to death.
5. Doctors don’t yet know exactly why some people who contract SARS-CoV-2 develop severe COVID-19, while others do not.
6. Vulnerable members of society, such as older adults and people with some chronic health conditions, could get very sick if they’re exposed to this virus.
7. Otherwise healthy and younger people may become very ill with COVID-19.
8. Hospitals and healthcare systems may be overburdened if many people develop COVID-19 at the same time.
9. It isn’t the answer for this virus.

#10. The math doesn’t work either. We need at least 60% infected to reach herd immunity so 40% can stay safe but if we add together the elderly and people with high risk conditions we get to a number well above the 40% left so which elderly and high risk people do we leave out and ask to be infected to get to herd immunity?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The overall point is that live entertainment will return. I personally doubt CoH, Turtle Talk, or CoM will be part of that. Or, if they are, it’ll be the very last thing.

I don’t think much if any of THAT entertainment will be back. They will have it...but it will be “new” at a lower cost. Recessions are opportunities to be exploited and they will be.

@Tink242424 what's so funny about the Canadian government giving out $2000 a month to people affected by Covid and helping businesses affected with giving money to will payroll? I don't get it. If you don't feel the government should put in restrictions or give aid to people who need it. Why have any government?

It just goes against our dogma. And I’m not saying any American should agree with it. But what is unacceptable is people use our dogma as a excuse to not even THINK about it. That is not a civic virtue.

WHEW LAWDDDD

Not good. Worst day ever. Yes. Ever.

I haven’t been to SW:GE in FL but I saw the land in CA last summer. RoTR wasn’t open yet so I was hoping some of the lack of excitement was more just that the land wasn’t fully open. They certainly have the bones to make it great. I loved the Harry Potter stuff at Universal, but nothing there compares to walking in and seeing a life sized Millennium Falcon and then getting to fly it. I just think they could make it so much more alive with some minor stuff.

I think they need and will do a massive IP overlay in those lands. It’s what the fans want...and if you fight Star Wars fans - you lose. We’re not close to dead yet.

Disney knows this...they are in a period of “transition”...but they’re well aware after taking a punch square to the nose.

 

[kong1802]

Again my friend, this deserves reposting.Even after listening to the video.


There are several reasons why herd immunity isn’t the answer to stopping the spread of the new coronavirus:

1. There isn’t yet a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Vaccinations are the safest way to practice herd immunity in a population.
2. The research for antivirals and other medications to treat COVID-19 is ongoing.
3. Scientists don’t know if you can contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 more than once.
4. People who contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 can experience serious side effects. Severe cases can lead to death.
5. Doctors don’t yet know exactly why some people who contract SARS-CoV-2 develop severe COVID-19, while others do not.
6. Vulnerable members of society, such as older adults and people with some chronic health conditions, could get very sick if they’re exposed to this virus.
7. Otherwise healthy and younger people may become very ill with COVID-19.
8. Hospitals and healthcare systems may be overburdened if many people develop COVID-19 at the same time.
9. It isn’t the answer for this virus.

And this Dr thought in May that England had reached immunity and Covid was on the way out....

I don't have the current numbers in front of me, but I'm pretty sure she was 100% wrong....

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

#10. The math doesn’t work either. We need at least 60% infected to reach herd immunity so 40% can stay safe but if we add together the elderly and people with high risk conditions we get to a number well above the 40% left so which elderly and high risk people do we leave out and ask to be infected to get to herd immunity?

To achieve that kinda “herd immunity” you’d have to accept millions of infections, hundreds of thousands of fatalities (if not millions), long term economic damage and suffering/side effects...

And it may not work.

If that’s a stance: own it. I can accept the stance.

But I still feel like the majority proposing it is because they’ll be back on the path to riches (which was unlikely to begin with...of course) and to go buy crap...Walmart...car dealers...wdw...

Crap.

 

[danlb_2000]

Again my friend, this deserves reposting.Even after listening to the video.


There are several reasons why herd immunity isn’t the answer to stopping the spread of the new coronavirus:

1. There isn’t yet a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Vaccinations are the safest way to practice herd immunity in a population.
2. The research for antivirals and other medications to treat COVID-19 is ongoing.
3. Scientists don’t know if you can contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 more than once.
4. People who contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 can experience serious side effects. Severe cases can lead to death.
5. Doctors don’t yet know exactly why some people who contract SARS-CoV-2 develop severe COVID-19, while others do not.
6. Vulnerable members of society, such as older adults and people with some chronic health conditions, could get very sick if they’re exposed to this virus.
7. Otherwise healthy and younger people may become very ill with COVID-19.
8. Hospitals and healthcare systems may be overburdened if many people develop COVID-19 at the same time.
9. It isn’t the answer for this virus.

Actually for number 3, we do know that people can get it twice, there have been confirmed cases of this. Fortunately, at the moment, the number is small. We don't yet know how long immunity last for the majority.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And this Dr thought in May that England had reached immunity and Covid was on the way out....

I don't have the current numbers in front of me, but I'm pretty sure she was 100% wrong....

He was injected into medical purgatory spectacularly...where atlas is on the Acela to...

Actually for number 3, we do know that people can get it twice, there have been confirmed cases of this. Fortunately, at the moment, the number is small. We don't yet know how long immunity last for the majority.

The immunity is likely to diminish substantially and the timeframe doesn’t seem to be too long. That doesn’t help much either.
And since it’s likely this could become an annual vax...a la flu...that makes this kinda plan even more silly.

 

[hopemax]

Does the video actually explain her plan to aggressively protect the vulnerable? Like logistics and costs and such?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Actually for number 3, we do know that people can get it twice, there have been confirmed cases of this. Fortunately, at the moment, the number is small. We don't yet know how long immunity last for the majority.

Agreed. There have been a few cases reported and it’s a very low number of them. In fact on one or two I was reading then tend to feel that they were tested again to soon or it lasted longer then the usual amount of time. Few others they think it could have been a re infection. Just goes to show you how much we don’t know about it still.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Agreed. There have been a few cases reported and it’s a very low number of them. In fact on one or two I was reading then tend to feel that they were tested again to soon or it lasted longer then the usual amount of time. Few others they think it could have been a re infection. Just goes to show you how much we don’t know about it still.

Considering that some are still feeling the effects of the virus six months after initial infection, I wouldn't be surprised if they had almost quashed the virus in their system, but it got just low enough to avoid being detected by the test, then when treatment stopped, it gained strength again. I've heard of that happening with other kinds of infections.

 

[GoofGoof]

Unfortunately, your idea doesn't take into account that some very healthy people suffer severe consequences and some die after becoming infected with COVID-19. The percentage is small, but I don't know a single, rational person that would volunteer for such an experiment.

My SIL is DISGUSTINGLY healthy. Ex model who eats a healthy diet, works out regularly, looks maybe 10 years younger than her actual age. She is also an x-ray tech at a hospital...and was infected early in the pandemic. She was in bed for a week struggling to breathe.

That’s my point. If you support a plan of natural herd immunity you support a plan where all those people are infected. The only difference with my idea is it happens all at once. Why is it acceptable for 200M+ Americans to be infected over a period of several years but not over several weeks? You already answered the question but it highlights the major flaw of the herd immunity plan.

 

[Chi84]

For you mask effectiveness doubters, here is a NSF sponsored study on sneezing particle patterns and mask effectiveness.

Summary:

It takes over 5 seconds for the droplets of a sneeze to settle to the ground if there is no air movement..... With Air movement, it will take longer. Measuring that is the next step in their research along with other types of masks.

The 6 feet distance rule is correct with NO air movement.

Mask effectiveness: The researchers also found that standard medical masks are very effective at stopping the spread of droplets — reducing the dispersed mucosaliva by a factor of at least 100 compared to the dispersal when unmasked.

“Masks are so effective, even if they aren’t perfect,” Chang says. “That was our most important finding.”

Gesundheit! Clark researchers use simulated sneezes in NSF-funded COVID-19 study

The COVID-19 virus is mainly spread through respiratory droplets or small particles that are produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or breathes. While the aerodynamics of such droplets […]

clarknow.clarku.edu

I don't think too many people are still opposing mask mandates on the basis that masks don't block some virus particles. I'll admit that I became much more amenable to wearing them when I read an article that said even if masks don't completely prevent transmission, they can prevent the wearer from getting a full load of the virus, making them less likely to get seriously ill.

From what I've been reading, people are concerned with the effectiveness of mask mandates on the basis that they can't be enforced in the places where the virus is actually most likely to spread, such as private gatherings and homes. It's really more of a compliance issue. Masks would be far more effective if people wore them and practiced social distancing at weddings and holiday gatherings. Enforcing mask mandates in public places can certainly help, but it can only do so much. In Illinois, restaurants have argued that allowing indoor dining where people's mask compliance can be monitored and enforced is preferable to the alternative of having people gather in private homes, where all bets are off.

 

[Tink242424]

For you mask effectiveness doubters, here is a NSF sponsored study on sneezing particle patterns and mask effectiveness.

Summary:

It takes over 5 seconds for the droplets of a sneeze to settle to the ground if there is no air movement..... With Air movement, it will take longer. Measuring that is the next step in their research along with other types of masks.

The 6 feet distance rule is correct with NO air movement.

Mask effectiveness: The researchers also found that standard medical masks are very effective at stopping the spread of droplets — reducing the dispersed mucosaliva by a factor of at least 100 compared to the dispersal when unmasked.

“Masks are so effective, even if they aren’t perfect,” Chang says. “That was our most important finding.”

Gesundheit! Clark researchers use simulated sneezes in NSF-funded COVID-19 study

The COVID-19 virus is mainly spread through respiratory droplets or small particles that are produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or breathes. While the aerodynamics of such droplets […]

clarknow.clarku.edu

I think this the crux of why some are not sure that masks work for COVID. I don't doubt that masks are effective at stopping the spread of droplets. What I doubt is that COVID is only spread by droplets. I think it has a much larger aerosol component and I'm not sure how much masks help with stopping the spread of aerosols.

I honestly do hope that I'm wrong and for the most part wearing masks is not that hard and is fine when not in high heat and humidity. I also see many people complying with this request in my area. I'm not convinced that people not wearing masks is causing the problem.

The bigger problem is people coming together, inside, for visits/parties/get togethers. I don't think this is an easy thing to fix as you can't keep humans away from each other for long periods of time without an end in sight.

 

[danlb_2000]

Considering that some are still feeling the effects of the virus six months after initial infection, I wouldn't be surprised if they had almost quashed the virus in their system, but it got just low enough to avoid being detected by the test, then when treatment stopped, it gained strength again. I've heard of that happening with other kinds of infections.

Yes, this sort of things did happen, but they have also identified cases of re-infection where there were genetic differences between the initial infection and the re-infection which would indicate a true re-infection.

 

[Tink242424]

Herd immunity is a theory but we really won’t know if it’s achievable without trying it and if it didn’t work the outcome would obviously be a train wreck. The biggest problem is the time it would take. As discussed already in great detail the concept of protecting the high risk group indefinitely while we wait for everyone else to be infected is inherently flawed because the high risk group is too large and it would take way too long.

I do have a radical idea that could work if enough people agreed to it. Instead of locking away the high risk group for months or even years to wait for enough people to be infected with Covid to reach natural herd immunity why not just ask for volunteers and purposely infect them with Covid. Since the virus is no big deal for anyone not in the high risk group I assume people would gladly sign up. Then we reach herd immunity and the virus is gone. The high risk group just has to get locked away for several weeks while the rest are infected. Problem solved. I’m only being partially serious here because I think you’d get less than 10% of the population to sign up at most. It’s easy to say I don’t care if I get infected or it’s no big deal but few people would put their money where their mouth is.

The truth is people want to do what they want and they think it won’t infect them because it hasn’t so far. Very few people are actually perfectly fine with being infected yet that’s the proposal with natural herd immunity.

I don't think many (or any that I have seen except maybe Sweden) are advocating for reaching herd immunity naturally. Since this virus is highly contagious if we did go for this strategy I highly suspect that within 6 mos we would be out of the pandemic but the death rate would be extremely high since we would most definitely overwhelm the healthcare system so that even those that would have gotten a serious case and survive with intervention wouldn't have access to that care. I'm not for this method and we as a human race have decided that the cost is too great. It would work but it would be catastrophic on so many levels that it is not worth it at all.

What I am advocating for is trying to protect those most at risk and allowing those that are willing to take the risk of getting the virus the option to take part in riskier behavior. What this doesn't mean is that if you are engaging in risky behavior that you if sick or knowingly exposed go and expose more people. But it does mean if you are healthy or if you have had it already and are currently immune (Yes, I realize that we don't know how long people will have immunity but we really haven't reached a point yet where multiple people are coming down with COVID again) that you have the choice to do riskier behaviors - go to a theme park, attend parties, visit friends, etc.

Let ALL businesses be open (with smart modifications to help slow the spread and be as safe as possible). Allow the American ingenuity to take place. Provide everyone with a consistent message and encourage people to do the right thing. Don't be so dictatorial in the messaging. Again you get more flies with honey than vinegar.

Provide a safety net for those that lose their jobs and resources to help them find a new job. Frankly I would be fine with the government giving people a temporary job like picking up garbage in communities, painting schools or buildings in the community to improve the community or other activities that are still safe but help to make our communities better places. I'm not for just giving people money to sit at home. There is always something that can be done to contribute to your local community.

We all need to take responsibility for ourselves and to a degree respect other people. If you have been engaging in risky behavior don't go to visit someone who is in a high risk category without giving them the ability to decide if they want to take that chance. If you are sick stay home and inform those that you have been in contact with.

 

[danlb_2000]

I think this the crux of why some are not sure that masks work for COVID. I don't doubt that masks are effective at stopping the spread of droplets. What I doubt is that COVID is only spread by droplets. I think it has a much larger aerosol component and I'm not sure how much masks help with stopping the spread of aerosols.

I honestly do hope that I'm wrong and for the most part wearing masks is not that hard and is fine when not in high heat and humidity. I also see many people complying with this request in my area. I'm not convinced that people not wearing masks is causing the problem.

The bigger problem is people coming together, inside, for visits/parties/get togethers. I don't think this is an easy thing to fix as you can't keep humans away from each other for long periods of time without an end in sight.

There has been a lot of debate about aerosol transmission, and even though it seems pretty clear this is a possible method of transmission, I don't think there would be as much debate if it was a significant method. It's looking like droplets may be the primary mode of infection..

 

[ChrisRobin124]

Really All? Please stop posting that herd immunity does not exist. It is a scientific fact. I think what you are arguing is the you don't believe herd immunity can be achieved without a vaccine. But exposure to the virus and a vaccine is what creates herd immunity and causes the virus to dissipate.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I think this the crux of why some are not sure that masks work for COVID. I don't doubt that masks are effective at stopping the spread of droplets. What I doubt is that COVID is only spread by droplets. I think it has a much larger aerosol component and I'm not sure how much masks help with stopping the spread of aerosols.

I honestly do hope that I'm wrong and for the most part wearing masks is not that hard and is fine when not in high heat and humidity. I also see many people complying with this request in my area. I'm not convinced that people not wearing masks is causing the problem.

The bigger problem is people coming together, inside, for visits/parties/get togethers. I don't think this is an easy thing to fix as you can't keep humans away from each other for long periods of time without an end in sight.

Masks do help stop the spread of aerosols...but it's not 100%. The trick is to reduce them as much as possible by everyone wearing masks...it's a moot effort if 10 people are together in a room and one person is maskless.

Your last paragraph is why when people question masks and the restrictions or say they follow them when they "have to", and when people promote "personal choice", other people freak the hell out. There are way too many using "personal choice" as an excuse to not be careful at all, and it's those people who are most likely to be driving the majority of spread. We should be following the recommendations ALWAYS - yep, even in our own homes - in order for them to be most effective, and for life to return to as close to normal as possible. This needs to be a team effort.