Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Horizons '83]

Like I said. Have at it. We have been asked repeatedly not to bother with the comparisons to the flu by the moderators. I’m not going to go down that path.

Yeah I'm done trying to defend things that are so obvious and plain to see. Moving on ... again

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My point is that it isn't Armageddon and that there are other communicable viruses in existence that are also a "big deal." It is based on that fact that I think a lot of the extreme mitigation measures that were taken were an overreaction. Social distancing and enhanced sanitation protocols are a sane reaction. I don't have an issue with face covering requirements either even though I believe they don't really do much (the jury is still out on that so lets not start posting back and forth studies).





Exactly. Every time I mention the flu because it is the closest comparison it immediately "triggers" some people. News flash. The flu can be very serious and deadly. I have posted before that a friend of mine's healthy daughter in her 30's died from the flu in March 2019.

Florida had this all figured out in April...where you been?

 

[GimpYancIent]

The historical record shows what a real biological horror can be:
"The Black Death (also known as the Pestilence, the Great Mortality, or the Plague) was the deadliest pandemic recorded in human history. The Black Death resulted in the deaths of up to 75–200 million people in Eurasia and North Africa, peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351. Plague, the disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, was the cause; Y. pestis infection most commonly results in bubonic plague, but can cause septicaemic or pneumonic plagues." Yet the human race survived this terror.
With the medical advances in medications, research and development of vaccines, accumulated knowledge of viruses, and implementation of protocols for the general public CIVID19 is not the biological horror some make it out to be. As I have said before, COVID19 is a no joke illness that is to be respected but not feared. The vast majority of the people that get infected will not die, their suffering will vary as each person is different anywhere from no symptoms to tragic, but it is not an automatic death sentence. Disney has developed and continues to evolve protocols that make sense and have proven effective in mitigating the spread plus allowing safe operations of their properties. I say feel good being healthy and enjoy being alive a little down time at WDW is a positive thing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm just going to get as many different vaccine shots as possible. Gotta collect them all!!

Are you gonna hang them on a lanyard?...like pins?

 

[Andrew C]

Exactly. Every time I mention the flu because it is the closest comparison it immediately "triggers" some people. News flash. The flu can be very serious and deadly. I have posted before that a friend of mine's healthy daughter in her 30's died from the flu in March 2019.

When you say this, people take it as you don’t think Covid is a serious virus. Any comparison, even in the context of how it affects the human body will be met with resistance as the assumption is you must think the Covid is not a big deal. It definitely triggers people. And the because of that, the mods have said to avoid it. Whether I agree or not, they will likely delete it anyways.

 

[Heppenheimer]

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that, if he is asymptomatic, there was a false positive test. They do happen.

The rate of false negatives for the most commonly used PCR test is much higher than the false positive rate when initially diagnosing.

The situation reverses itself in the recovery phase. Hence, the recommendation not to retest as a test of cure.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I'm a very ignorant person and I don't understand that this is not the flu. My point went completely over your head. People keep using this argument that COVID is the worst virus ever because some people have the worst illness they ever had from it. I've had the flu more than once in my life. One time it was the most ill I've ever been. The other times it was no big deal.

Just because for some people that get COVID it is the worst illness they've ever had it doesn't mean that COVID is any more serious than any other virus. It is slightly more deadly than common strains of influenza at this point. However, part of that also goes to the lack of immunity and exposure. People's immune systems are better equipped to fight the flu from being exposed to various strains (combined with flu shots) over the course of their lives.

COVID isn't Armageddon. Even if absolutely nothing was done to mitigate it and there was no vaccine, after the first wave of a very high number of deaths, humans would develop immunity and better ability to fight it and it would become similar to the flu. Note: I am not suggesting that nothing should be done to mitigate it, just pointing out that the issue is lack of immunity and exposure, not that SARS-CoV-2 is among the worst viruses ever to impact humans.

We went through the math on this yesterday. So far, COVID-19 has been about 22% more deadly than our worst influenza season over the past 10 years when compared on a case fatality rate, and has so far caused about 3 times the number of deaths on an absolute number count. And this doesn't even touch on the post-disease burden for those who have recovered.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Once again we have NO IDEA what the long term effects are from this virus. We have NO IDEA what happens to an asymptomatic persons body long term. We have NO IDEA what long haulers are going deal with longterm. It is a Novel virus, and we are learning stuff about it everyday. We are not in the correct timeline to judge its severity regarding asymptomatic people yet.

 

[Andrew C]

Once again we have NO IDEA what the long term effects are from this virus. We have NO IDEA what happens to an asymptomatic persons body long term. We have NO IDEA what long haulers are going deal with longterm. It is a Novel virus, and we are learning stuff about it everyday. We are not in the correct timeline to judge its severity regarding asymptomatic people yet.

No idea is a bit of an overstatement. They have some idea based on the last six months. And I imagine they have some idea based on similar viruses.

 

[Heppenheimer]

No idea is a bit of an overstatement. They have some idea based on the last six months. And I imagine they have some idea based on similar viruses.

I daresay most practicing physicians in the US today have not seen anything like the after-effects of COVID-19 in their lifetimes, either in the sheer breadth of multi-system involvement or in this high of a frequency. We haven't seen anything like this since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Measles can have some nasty sequelae, but because the yearly numbers for this disease are so low, the complications have become extremely rare.

 

[Andrew C]

I daresay most practicing physicians in the US today have not seen anything like the after-effects of COVID-19 in their lifetimes, either in the sheer breadth of multi-system involvement or in this high of a frequency. We haven't seen anything like this since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Measles can have some nasty sequelae, but because the yearly numbers for this disease are so low, the complications have become extremely rare.

I wasn’t talking about physicians but those who study deadly viruses. If they haven’t learned anything about potential long term affects in the last six months..if they haven’t learned anything from similar viruses like SARS, I can’t see a reason to listen to them about anything. That’s why I said they have some idea. Or at least they should have some idea.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I wasn’t talking about physicians but those who study deadly viruses. If they haven’t learned anything about potential long term affects in the last six months..if they haven’t learned anything from similar viruses like SARS, I can’t see a reason to listen to them about anything. That’s why I said they have some idea. Or at least they should have some idea.

I repeat... we haven't seen anything like this in over a century. Even with SARS.

 

[Andrew C]

I repeat... we haven't seen anything like this in over a century. Even with SARS.

Ok. So there are experts that have spent a huge chunk of their lifetimes studying different viruses from all over the world, partially in an effort to prevent and control outbreaks. If none of that knowledge can be applied to this virus, then their work is pretty much worthless. Good, we have a flu vaccine each year, but if you’re telling me they start from square one every time a novel virus appears, their expertise is good for nothing. They will never be able to provide appropriate knowledge outside of typical best practices? Is that what you’re saying? All of their previous research is only good for that specific virus?

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out -

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

When you say this, people take it as you don’t think Covid is a serious virus. Any comparison, even in the context of how it affects the human body will be met with resistance as the assumption is you must think the Covid is not a big deal. It definitely triggers people. And the because of that, the mods have said to avoid it. Whether I agree or not, they will likely delete it anyways.

...perhaps because that started as a political excuse/misdirection - and everyone knows it - not a medical claim?

...I weep for those that don’t understand this after going on 7 months.

 

[DisneyCane]

We went through the math on this yesterday. So far, COVID-19 has been about 22% more deadly than our worst influenza season over the past 10 years when compared on a case fatality rate, and has so far caused about 3 times the number of deaths on an absolute number count. And this doesn't even touch on the post-disease burden for those who have recovered.

In Florida, 32% of fatalities are people age 85 and over which are only 3% of cases. Although the exact percentages vary by location, the pattern is consistent worldwide. This type of disproportional data throws the case fatality rate out of whack. For somebody that is 85 years old or older, while COVID might have been the final "cause" of their death, I don't think it really speaks to how deadly a disease is. Most people who are that old have a host of underlying medical conditions, not to mention that they are very old.

Way more elderly people get COVID than get other similar diseases (which I will not mention) due to the lack of vaccine or natural immunity. That's why it is the "cause" of death for so many.

 

[GoofGoof]

I daresay most practicing physicians in the US today have not seen anything like the after-effects of COVID-19 in their lifetimes, either in the sheer breadth of multi-system involvement or in this high of a frequency. We haven't seen anything like this since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Measles can have some nasty sequelae, but because the yearly numbers for this disease are so low, the complications have become extremely rare.

The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic Is probably the most recent event with some clear similarities to Covid. If people insist on comparing Covid to flu then compare it to that not the seasonal flu which has a vaccine and viral treatments that help to mitigate its negative impacts.

As a history lesson, in 1918 during the flu pandemic people wore masks and in some places masks were mandated, schools closed in a lot of areas (only no distance learning then), factories and businesses closed, bars and restaurants shut down, the MLB season was shortened as was the NHL season, College Football started late (Oct/Nov) with a shortened season and dozens of teams not playing at all. The point of all this is there’s a narrative out there that what is happening as a reaction to Covid is unprecedented and an overreaction when history tells us this is what happens with a pandemic. Of course if you compare it to an average flu season it seems like we are overreacting.

As far as long term effects, we have no idea. We can estimate or guess, but 6 months isn’t long enough to know what will happen long term.

 

[Andrew C]

As a history lesson, in 1918 during the flu pandemic people wore masks and in some places masks were mandated, schools closed in a lot of areas (only no distance learning then), factories and businesses closed, bars and restaurants shut down, the MLB season was shortened as was the NHL season, College Football started late (Oct/Nov) with a shortened season and dozens of teams not playing at all. The point of all this is there’s a narrative out there that what is happening as a reaction to Covid is unprecedented and an overreaction when history tells us this is what happens with a pandemic.

Some may say it is a bit sad that we have no better methods than the exact same ones in 1918. I guess technology and modern medicine only gets you so far.

 

[Andrew C]

As far as long term effects, we have no idea. We can estimate or guess, but 6 months isn’t long enough to know what will happen long term.

People keep saying that..”no idea”. If accurate, that is extremely disappointing. I would have expected better. Also, if we have no idea, we probably shouldn’t be using the potential of long term effects in our decision making process. That would be just guess work.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Ok. So there are experts that have spent a huge chunk of their lifetimes studying different viruses from all over the world, partially in an effort to prevent and control outbreaks. If none of that knowledge can be applied to this virus, then their work is pretty much worthless. Good, we have a flu vaccine each year, but if you’re telling me they start from square one every time a novel virus appears, their expertise is good for nothing. They will never be able to provide appropriate knowledge outside of typical best practices? Is that what you’re saying? All of their previous research is only good for that specific virus?

You are making quite a few leaps beyond anything I wrote or implied. The discussion was about the multi-system after effects of people who have recovered from COVID-19, and the acknowledgement that we haven't seen a virus produce such a broad range of sequelae in so many people since the influenza pandemic of 1918. Of course, we can use what we know about other viruses to make educated assumptions about a new virus. But the differences between COVID-19 and other coronaviruses and non-corona respiratory viruses are revealing themselves in real time, and those new differences account for many of the reasons why we are dealing with a pandemic, as opposed to just another seasonal respiratory disease.