On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[Ldno]

Why are you here then?

Why are YOU here then?

 

[mikejs78]

They posted an 85% loss in theme park revenue and can’t release movies to theaters, and we’re supposed to pretend everything is okay? Come on, people. I have a bridge I can sell you.

I agree the sky isn’t falling, but very few people suggested that.

The OP did.

The data says otherwise. You're clearly misinformed.

Source please?

National Parks can also fall under the self quarantine restrictions if you travel out of state in the Northeast.

Right, but National parks tend to be a regional thing. As most national parks are out west, I'd guess that a lot of that demand is being driven by locals who aren't travelling far. It's similar to what we are seeing here in MA - vacations to Cape Cod are skyrocketing from local residents, even as out of state visitors are way down.

For WDW, much of their attendance is either international or driven from the eastern part of the U.S. And since a) international travel is completely closed off, b) people aren't travelling in general, and c) The northeast, which represents a pretty significant portion of Disney vacationers, and d) Florida quickly became the epicenter of the pandemic, any one of those things are plausibly contributors to why people aren't visiting wdw right now. To say "it's because people don't want to wear masks" is projecting your own opinion, without evidence to back it up, and is likely one factor among many - to what extent we don't know.

no one thought Disney, the biggest Hollywood powerhouse In the history of film and entertainment would have been affected by a pandemic,

No one thought we'd ever have a situation where we had to shut the whole country down. Again, this isn't a Disney problem, this is an every business in the world problem.

 

[Horizons '83]

Why are YOU here then?

Because I actually enjoy Disney Parks.

 

[MisterPenguin]

They have been predictions about a vaccine for COVID due in September, but more than likely it will not be available to the public until March or April of 2021 as much as I wanted to go next year, and being laid off from work and surviving with unemployment benefits, I cannot, as a middle class disney fanatic that could go with my family every year, I personally would hate to miss out on the 50th anniversary of WDW. Even if it stops being a hotSpot, people will just stop prioritizing vacations all together just like myself. Disney is a luxury I cannot afford to take.

Honestly lets say if Mulan takes off with a strong hit even with the aformentioned 30 price tag, it might help them to an extent, but knowing them if that’s the case the asking price for Black Widow and release window will be around October/November. A typical Hollywood movie loses 30-50 million bucks on marketing fees along just to push a movie’s release date further, at this rate it’s VOD or bust. It sucks seeing movie theaters closed and will suck even more knowing that they won’t be at full capacity either way when they open. Disney is straight up cutting up the middle man with Mulan on D+, they will keep 100% of the profits.

Not really getting my ideas from anywhere, just speculating, no one thought Disney, the biggest Hollywood powerhouse In the history of film and entertainment would have been affected by a pandemic, but like cyber security and any other business we live in a reactive society, we don’t do anything until it happens. I wasn’t to single them out but seriously, why can’t I head to a Disney store in the mall with a customer readily available to purchase goods, but the only disney fix I can get is old goods from parks only found in the outlets? Lego is on the same boat, Legoland downtown is open(lego franchise) but the ”actual” Lego store on the mall is closed.

As I walked by the Apple store I saw something horrific, the whole store was wiped from any idevices on the floor, felt like a skeleton of an apple store. Disney better start selling park merch on their shopdisney site.

So, you ignore all the things you previously stated which I pointed out was wrong, only to reply with more musings. OK. Good evening.

 

[Horizons '83]

So, you ignore all the things you previously stated which I pointed out was wrong, only to reply with more musings. OK. Good evening.

It’s been quite a day... tomorrow is another day I’ve noticed the last few months it’s harder to admit when you’re wrong, @Ldno is having this issue right now

 

[The Visionary Soul]

Source please?

Besides my many friends that work in National Parks across the country, you can look at this National Geographic article:

Summer at America’s national parks kicks off with long lines and crowded trails

Despite efforts to limit visitors, some national parks are getting slammed. So what’s next?

www.nationalgeographic.com

But in all seriousness, I've seen numbers that won't come out until next year. It's a big year for the national parks that are open, and the visitors aren't all locals. The great American Road Trip has returned... just COVID-style. We did the same thing after 9/11. Many parks have had to institute reservation systems to keep social distancing in place to meet demand, but none of them require masks when outdoors.

 

[DDLand]

Exactly On the last quarters call, Iger introduced Chapek, and then Chapek ran the rest of the call. One could even say he handed these calls off to Chapek.. Why anyone is reading into him not being there this time is beyond me. He's no longer the CEO.


I got it.


Could anyone have imagined a pandemic virus that shut down most of the world for several months, and is still with us, causing us to have debates on whether or not children should even be in school, having to wear face masks everywhere, dealing with things such as social distancing? This is a global problem affecting everyone. Not just TWDC. Not just parks and resorts.




The "same leeway" is being granted to all COVID-affected businesses. It's not all pixie dust in Burbank right now to be sure, but Wall Street will be happy with Disney as long as Disney appears to be doing a good job weathering the storm, whether or not Parks, experiences and consumer products turns a profit right now. We are in unprecedented times, and expectations are adjusted accordingly.



I don't think that's it at all. it's more about the fact that Florida is going through an outbreak right now, and many people are required to self quarantine for 14 days if they come back from Florida. I know several people personally who postponed trips just because of that rule. Sure, I think there are some people who don't want to wear a mask. But I think there's a whole swath of people who just don't want to be in Florida right now. As they said on the call, initial bookings were high, but then they received a lot of cancellations as Florida's outbreak occurred.

What? From my original post:

I could not have foreseen that the crises that Disney would face would come so soon and so destructively. It also would be FAR outside Disney’s control.

I also didn’t imply it was only the mask’s fault. Also from my original post:

Whether you believe it’s rationale or not, people are scared or not interested in wearing a mask.

DPEP’s collapse was pretty much unavoidable. That’s not Chapek’s fault. Though our new CEO’s decisions are not completely without error. The decision to reopen was Chapek’s. I’m not at all convinced that reopening was wise. This rocky environment will remain going forward. Guests are scared of the virus and/or don’t want to wear masks. I also would probably add economic issues are at play too. To make matters worse, many people believe that Disney’s reopening is straight up immoral. Never have millions of Disney customers believed that Walt Disney World was harmful to society. This could cause lasting brand damage. I’m also extremely concerned Walt Disney World could be forced to shutdown again. That would be wildly expensive and destructive.

Even if the best case scenario occurs, Walt Disney World will suffer. Thinkwell Group (the design firm behind the world famous Harry Potter studio experience in England) put out a paper on what a “socially distant” theme park would look like. It wasn’t pretty...

“From a simple space planning perspective focusing on the physical distancing recommendations, the theme park circulation will have to increase 100%, the retail by 180%, food service by 150%, and attraction areas from 150-200%. These factors, applied to the entire theme park property, result in a 110 acre (44.5 Ha) theme park growing to over 200 acres (89 Ha) to accommodate the same daily attendance.”

Thinkwell is now TAIT!

After years of creating unforgettable, one-of-a-kind experiences for guests around the world, we’re taking our vision and expertise to a new level.

thinkwellgroup.com

Walt Disney World and Disneyland are not designed for this!

Extreme budget cuts will be necessary to get DPEP back to profitability. If you think Chapek is fine with a $2 Billion a quarter loss then you don’t know Disney. They will claw back the money... Often with a recklessness that proves shortsighted.

They posted an 85% loss in theme park revenue and can’t release movies to theaters, and we’re supposed to pretend everything is okay? Come on, people. I have a bridge I can sell you.

I agree the sky isn’t falling, but very few people suggested that.

Yes and no. DPEP and the Studios were ugly. But coming out of the earnings we now know that the company was cashflow positive. That’s all the company needs. Most of the investors are excitedly looking towards Disney+’s rise to dominance. The worry was the collapse in Disney’s business would leave them in a compromised position. Disney has now accumulated enough cash to last indefinitely. Not only that, the company’s operations added liquidity to the balance sheet. Disney is not going anywhere, and Disney+ is safe. So investors can take peace in that fact. But like you point out... This is disastrous for DPEP.

 

[BrianLo]

Besides my many friends that work in National Parks across the country, you can look at this National Geographic article:

Summer at America’s national parks kicks off with long lines and crowded trails

Despite efforts to limit visitors, some national parks are getting slammed. So what’s next?

www.nationalgeographic.com

But in all seriousness, I've seen numbers that won't come out until next year. It's a big year for the national parks that are open, and the visitors aren't all locals. The great American Road Trip has returned... just COVID-style. We did the same thing after 9/11. Many parks have had to institute reservation systems to keep social distancing in place to meet demand, but none of them require masks when outdoors.

I can also endorse that I've never seen some of the Canadian Provincial/Federal parks so busy. Maybe not the quintessential tour bus portions of the parks (like Lake Louise or Banff), but everywhere else is bananas on weekends.

Outdoor recreation in many forms is seeing a boom.

 

[Ldno]

It’s been quite a day... tomorrow is another day I’ve noticed the last few months it’s harder to admit when you’re wrong, @Ldno is having this issue right now

I wasn’t even admitting I was neither right or wrong And I don’t even claim I have a field in speculating but it’s kind of a given, you guys clearly took everything to heart, why Even comment at all in fear of being ridiculed, wrong or right has no meaning when we don’t even work for the company plus i don’t live off validating from the internet. I wasn’t even claiming to be an insider but I do have a background in Tele/com and my biggest flaw with Disney is their Apple partnership, but like Apple and Disney, they will be fine, it’s just Disney’s business decisions that make no sense to me, like their feud with itunes.

People prefer doom and gloom over Happy news because it’s what sells and it’s clearly no different from 95% of the content found online.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not really getting my ideas from anywhere, just speculating, no one thought Disney, the biggest Hollywood powerhouse In the history of film and entertainment would have been affected by a pandemic,

No one thought there’d be a deadly virus in community spread...

...the minute that became clear - 3/13/20 - I knew Disney was in deep trouble.

Anyone would have gotten to that same conclusion within weeks IF you realize what they sell and how they sell it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well if this is 2004 all over again... now is the time to buy Disney stock! Holy cow it has had a great run since Iger became CEO. This is a resoundingly successful quarter all things considered.

But it’s not...because the financial sector has made sure they don’t lose

And how hard did you hit your head, exactly??

 

[el_super]

Walt Disney World and Disneyland are not designed for this!

They were designed to hold a lot less people than they have been lately. As others have pointed out, there is a path to profitability that does not require meeting the same attendance levels.

Extreme budget cuts will be necessary to get DPEP back to profitability. If you think Chapek is fine with a $2 Billion a quarter loss then you don’t know Disney. They will claw back the money... Often with a recklessness that proves shortsighted.

The situation that led to the loss this quarter was having ALL the parks closed for a majority of period. The parks are already reopened so the game has already changed. Im sure that two billion also included some of the pre-opening prep work which will not need to be paid again. So no doubt they are already doing better this quarter.

As for more budget cuts, I'm on the fence. We will have to see how the business is forced to change over the course of several months. Even if the money gets cut from large scale productions, it could end up being moved to other areas. Hard to tell just yet.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To just affirm Pro’s root premise (even though he posts hoax leaning stuff that’s redonkukous)...this is disastrous financials...the spin doesn’t polish this turd.

But the problem for Disney is the fundament alteration to what their business is going to be...and the pain is just beginning for everyone involved.

Get your popcorn.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They were designed to hold a lot less people than they have been lately. As others have pointed out, there is a path to profitability that does not require meeting the same attendance levels.

As for more budget cuts, I'm on the fence. We will have to see how the business is forced to change over the course of several months. Even if the money gets cut from large scale productions, it could end up being moved to other areas. Hard to tell just yet.

They were designed and overbuilt to handle this much and more...especially the Eisner era.

What they haven’t had happen is enough reinvestment within their footprints to meet demand.

That’s not about “capacity”...it’s about vision. They stopped refreshing for damn near 20 years...and squeezed their expectations...and introduced ride rationing...to get you to buy after hours magic...

The question is - did you fall for it?

You’re so planted on the fence I think it’s cutting off some vital blood flow...

Question: have you ever seen parks in a recession before?

 

[pheneix]

BTW, if anyone is naive enough to think they are getting inside stock information from a WDW fansite, and act on it, they deserve anything they get. Anyone who thinks the SEC would consider what is being said on a WDW fan forum as "real" insider information that could affect company stock is also pretty naive. Take all rumors stated here with a grain of salt - or a whole salt shaker.

signal boost for voice of reason

 

[PhotoDave219]

No one thought there’d be a deadly virus in community spread...

...the minute that became clear - 3/13/20 - I knew Disney was in deep trouble.

Anyone would have gotten to that same conclusion within weeks IF you realize what they sell and how they sell it.

Everyone who is a Disney fan knew this was bad on January 26th when SDL & HKDL had to close.

We all knew that all hell would break loose if Disney had to close the domestic parks.

..... A $3.5 BILLION dollar loss For one quarter and Parks & Resorts later.....

Until the public health emergency ends? This company is in serious trouble.

 

[pheneix]

I dont feel like catching up...is there a second post drop or...?

Doing something I’ve never done before on the next “big original content” - actually writing drafts in a word processor.

Plus there are rumors and narratives I want to fully research and vet before I post. This thread really blew up on some interesting places on YouTube. The next “big original content” may do the same.

But the next thread is coming. Might be a while. Might be tomorrow. But it’s coming.

In the meantime, I’ll be here taking my licks as “the old guy who got it wrong.” When things go another way I will be drinking troll tears.

 

[PhotoDave219]

BTW, if anyone is naive enough to think they are getting inside stock information from a WDW fansite, and act on it, they deserve anything they get. Anyone who thinks the SEC would consider what is being said on a WDW fan forum as "real" insider information that could affect company stock is also pretty naive. Take all rumors stated here with a grain of salt - or a whole salt shaker.

You have better odds of the NBA or Disney listening to me suggest that their bubble isn’t as tight as they think it is because of nightly princess visits to players rooms.

.... and believe me, Disney or the NBA isn’t gonna listen to me.

 

[Brer Oswald]

Doing something I’ve never done before on the next “big original content” - actually writing drafts in a word processor.

Plus there are rumors and narratives I want to fully research and vet before I post. This thread really blew up on some interesting places on YouTube. The next “big original content” may do the same.

But the next thread is coming. Might be a while. Might be tomorrow. But it’s coming.

In the meantime, I’ll be here taking my licks as “the old guy who got it wrong.” When things go another way I will be drinking troll tears.

To be fair, you didn’t necessarily get anything wrong...yet. You just kind of jumped the gun and assumed certain things would be discussed today that weren’t.

Many of us appreciate what you sharing, and I think it’s smart to check things over before making the next post.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Everyone who is a Disney fan knew this was bad on January 26th when SDL & HKDL had to close.

We all knew that all hell would break loose if Disney had to close the domestic parks.

..... A $3.5 BILLION dollar loss For one quarter and Parks & Resorts later.....

Until the public health emergency ends? This company is in serious trouble.

I think it’s more than that...

All their plans for parks involve more people at higher prices...the dog doesn’t stop chasing the rabbit on Wall Street.

Even is some miracle vaccine comes out quickly...anyone believe they have the patience to lose tens of millions of gate clicks for the next few years and build back up?

And since there won’t be any real investment...what’s park stagnation gonna look like then??

2 hour waits for mine train gonna get the people there in 2025??