GoofGoof
Premium Member
You mean no Santa Claus at all? Couldn’t he just wear a mask and Clorox wipe the presents before heading back up the chimney?
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
I have seriously wondered how they are going to explain no pictures with Santa this year.You mean no Santa Claus at all? Couldn’t he just wear a mask and Clorox wipe the presents before heading back up the chimney?
chrisvee
Well-Known Member
that’s the way I read it too although I admit no cred in this area other than basic math skills
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
we won't know this for about 2/3 more weeks. Fourth of July just happened so now would be the time those people start to get sick. And then tested. Remember Memorial Day contributed to the spike in late June.
chrisvee
Well-Known Member
you think it could plateau higher than this?? yikes.
when would be the point where we might see some of the tightening measures take hold?
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
peak
schuelma
Well-Known Member
Yea I should have been more precise- right now things look to have plateaued. Positivity rate isn't really going up, but it really isn't going down
It didn’t have to be if people would have stopped being dumb... But here we are
No. It most certainly does not.
In the recently linked article...
New CDC guidelines come down hard in favor of opening schools | CNN
New CDC guidelines push hard for opening schools in the wake of coronavirus .
www.cnn.com
it says...
But the new guidelines posted Thursday do recommend that local officials should consider closing schools, or keeping them closed, if there is substantial, uncontrolled transmission of the virus.
"If there is substantial, uncontrolled transmission, schools should work closely with local health officials to make decisions on whether to maintain school operations," they read. "The health, safety, and wellbeing of students, teachers, staff and their families is the most important consideration in determining whether school closure is a necessary step," the guidance adds.
"Communities can support schools staying open by implementing strategies that decrease a community's level of transmission. However, if community transmission levels cannot be decreased, school closure is an important consideration. Plans for virtual learning should be in place in the event of a school closure."
The guidelines suggest that school administrators consider keeping children in cohorts or pods to reduce the risk of spread. They also encourage the use of social distancing, hand hygiene, face masks and other measures to control spread -- and incorporating these measures into school curricula.
Right now, that's the situation in most U.S. states. Uncontrolled community spread on an exponential curve with hospital and death rates going up. Not to mention that so many school districts are totally unequipped to maintain social distancing in classrooms when they have previously had 25 children crammed into a small room. They don't have Disney money to build plexiglass barriers everywhere.
By the CDC's own recommendations, schools should not open in those conditions (but they can in states that have it under control).
While the chance of death from CV in children is very low, they can still transmit it to teachers. And then transmit it to one another and take it home to transmit to family members.
Older Children Spread the Coronavirus Just as Much as Adults, Large Study Finds (Published 2020)
The study of nearly 65,000 people in South Korea suggests that school reopenings will trigger more outbreaks.
A large new study from South Korea offers an answer: Children younger than 10 transmit to others much less often than adults do, but the risk is not zero. And those between the ages of 10 and 19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults do.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
There is no evidence that schools are 'safe'.
But there are a lot of guidelines and advocacy that school children are low risk and the overwhelming benefits of schooling in certain circumstances overtakes the risks.
However - in terms of Pandemic control most guideline based bodies also set the caveat that things actually need to be under a semblance of control for the benefits to outweigh those risks.
Children are not at no-risk and certainly the adult staff at the school are. Not to mention every child has at least one adult at home. In terms of pandemic control reopening schools will be a lot of fuel.
Where the selfishness comes in to play here is that schools were not being prioritized. Bars and restaurants were prioritized. Casinos. Even theme parks. It's all a bit backwards. Certain business sectors need to close to control the pandemic so that it is actually more beneficial to open schools than to close them. Instead schools are more kindling to an out of control fire. Even if the kids can "Take it" - it will cause a huge increase overall in the US.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Unless I am reading these graphs wrong, it looking relatively better, considering FL is in an open phase:
New cases going down
Deaths will lag, so can't make any judgements yet
Percent positive looks to be leveling
hopemax
Well-Known Member
I was hoping we could skip by the whole education thing here. Especially, when we know how this is going to go given how the poster feels about the entire pandemic, so of course their idea about educating during a pandemic is going to align a certain way. And it would be many, many pages more suited for the Politics forum.
But if we must, people should read up about Israel and their attempt to open schools and open businesses. They at least started in a place with a low number of cases. Their 7-day average for new cases went from 15, 16, 17 per day (mid-May) to 1700 per day (now). In June, 47% of new cases were tied to schools. Now, they are struggling with how to contain spread. Restaurant closings were ordered, postponed, put back, overruled by the Knesset. Netanyahu is suddenly under pressure. Chaos is the word of the day
I have been on the side of tight restrictions of what is open, let the elementary school kids go back, see what happens before doing anything else. Israel originally wanted to start with the younger kids first, but too many hands in the cookie jars, so they let any plans turn into a free for all. Which is going to be what happens here, and it will be a disaster. Which is the point.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
New cases are down now on the graph because the 7 day average no longer includes those 2 days with 15K and almost 14K cases. The average is still over 10K a day. Give it a week or 2 and if the curve continues down then yes, cases are consistently dropping. Percent positive is a huge problem. There’s no good news in seeing it level off this high. It needs to be much lower, below 5%. If it stays consistent between 15 and 20% that’s definitely not good. Deaths are deaths. Not sure there’s any way to spin that positively so I guess just ignore it.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
You should not ignore deaths. It's the most important and maybe the most accurate metric.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
No, it isn't. Because it doesn't take into account the long-term damage caused by the virus, nor the amount of time it takes some to recover...which can be literally months.
NY is down to 1.1% positives. So... plateauing is not good. FL had been plateauing with low numbers for months, which was the opportunity to do contact tracing and lower the numbers to minimal. But they opened up during the plateau. And they're still pretty much open. This is a recipe for a continuing plateau with very high numbers for a long time.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Agreed that the Israeli data is troubling. On the flip side, data from France shows low-to-no spread associated with schools.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
To build on what @ImperfectPixie said about unknowns regarding the long term impact there is still just the issue of dealing with the illness. Even if this killed 0 people and everyone who gets it ends up no worse at the end, for many people it still knocks them on their butt for at least a couple of weeks. Throughout the country, across businesses and institutions, we do not have the mechanisms in place to deal with people being out suddenly for so long in any sort of quantity.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I agree, its almost impossible for businesses and institutions to have planned for this.
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