Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Greeco]

Seriously? A bit paranoid much?

So, as more cases are diagnosed will our water supply be shut off? No more water coming out of the faucet? Will the electricity be shut off? Is there a run on generators too?
Asking for a friend.

 

[MuteSuperstar]

So, as more cases are diagnosed will our water supply be shut off? No more water coming out of the faucet? Will the electricity be shut off? Is there a run on generators too?
Asking for a friend.

No reason not to prepare for those possibilities. Water treatment plant needs crucial part from China? Huge sickouts by water or power company staff? Nationwide, probably not....locally....no reason to think it absolutely could not happen.

 

[The Mom]

@lentesta
Curious, I got an alert about crowd levels soaring up to the 9s and 10s next week. Up from 8s and 9s generally. What would attribute this jump to? I would imagine the virus scare would result in diminished crowds. I'm planning on going next week, so this insight would be helpful.

Duval County (FL) starts Spring break Monday, as do many other FL schools. Along with other schools in the country, I suspect.

 

[GoofGoof]

So, as more cases are diagnosed will our water supply be shut off? No more water coming out of the faucet? Will the electricity be shut off? Is there a run on generators too?
Asking for a friend.

I work for a large energy company that owns power plants around the country. I can tell you with absolute certainty the electricity will not be shut off. Keep in mind the quarantine period is 14 days, after that people will return to work. Not everyone will be sick at once and companies have plans in place to backfill critical positions If people are forced out for 2 weeks. I can’t speak with as much certainty for water treatment plants but I would imagine the same is true. It’s very unlikely you will be without power or water and not for very long if it happens.

No reason not to prepare for those possibilities. Water treatment plant needs crucial part from China? Huge sickouts by water or power company staff? Nationwide, probably not....locally....no reason to think it absolutely could not happen.

At least on the power side critical parts are kept in inventory so they wouldn’t need to wait for them to arrive from China. Facilities can also help each other out if someone needed a part. Happens all the time.

 

[Greeco]

No reason not to prepare for those possibilities. Water treatment plant needs crucial part from China? Huge sickouts by water or power company staff? Nationwide, probably not....locally....no reason to think it could absolutely not happen.

I work for a large energy company that owns power plants around the country. I can tell you with absolute certainty the electricity will not be shut off. Keep in mind the quarantine period is 14 days, after that people will return to work. Not everyone will be sick at once and companies have plans in place to backfill critical positions If people are forced out for 2 weeks. I can’t speak with as much certainty for water treatment plants but I would imagine the same is true. It’s very unlikely you will be without power or water and not for very long if it happens.

At least on the power side critical parts are kept in inventory so they wouldn’t need to wait for them to arrive from China. Facilities can also help each other out if someone needed a part. Happens all the time.

Thanks for the info. My sarcasm must not have worked.
I’m not even a little concerned about water or electricity. Watching that Costco video makes me feel sad for our society. Cringe worthy, to say the least.

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

So, as more cases are diagnosed will our water supply be shut off? No more water coming out of the faucet? Will the electricity be shut off? Is there a run on generators too?
Asking for a friend.

Your water is just fine . If all hell broke loose? Boil it.
Generac? We already have one - but we live in MI where the power is "iffy" at best. PS - that's a Nat Gas unit.... no gasoline.

Toilet paper: the issue? While foolish, this can be exported to panicking countries, for a higher price. Guess what US company's will do.
Rice: All gone.
Beans: All gone.
Canned Chile - try to buy some on Amazon . And we HATE Chile .
Facemasks: No, these simply do not exist, post JAN 2020 .

As of today (3-7-2020), we have not cancelled our APR 2020 WDW trip. Flying? We will be wearing N95 masks - as we have for the last 8 years. Those WDW flights are chock FULL of sick 8 year olds. COVID-19 is no match for a sneezing, puking 8 year old .

Of note - WDW sponsored Travelex insurance has bombed out on any claims of "fear", for reimbursement. Next year? We will dump these folks, and get solid "Cancel for any reason" trip insurance, at a higher price. It's simple: TRAVELEX is a fake - they will not pay. Insurance that plays "lawyer", and will not pay, is a total waste of money.

 

[John park hopper]

Got a generator, got a well so plenty of H20, got a freezer full of food, got plenty of canned food from the garden, planting this years garden now live in a town with 1000 people. Go through this every year for hurricanes

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

When people get scared...they rush the stores and buy TP...

It’s some bizarre comfort mechanism...can’t explain it.

 

[networkpro]

Your water is just fine . If all hell broke loose? Boil it.
Generac? We already have one - but we live in MI where the power is "iffy" at best. PS - that's a Nat Gas unit.... no gasoline.

Canned Chile - try to buy some on Amazon . And we HATE Chile .

How much would you like ? In Georgia I can have Amazon deliver it by the case full in a few days.

 

[trainplane3]

Here, have a laugh:

 

[GoofGoof]

How much would you like ? In Georgia I can have Amazon deliver it by the case full in a few days.

If everyone is chowing down on canned Chile there may really be a shortage of TP

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

Here, have a laugh:

YES! THIS! Forget Covid-19..... Touch as little as possible, and use hand sanitizer .

 

[networkpro]

If everyone is chowing down on canned Chile there may really be a shortage of TP

Nope, one of the top three companies for paper products is here : Georgia-Pacific.

 

[Timmay]

When people get scared...they rush the stores and buy TP...

It’s some bizarre comfort mechanism...can’t explain it.

Need something to clean the proverbial substance off the fan.

 

[MrHappy]

Duval County (FL) starts Spring break Monday, as do many other FL schools. Along with other schools in the country, I suspect.

Ok, thanks. But that's not a reason for a sudden change in his forecast, that was known already. I guess TP factors in increased traffic from the airline discounts??? @lentesta

 

[GoofGoof]

Ok, thanks. But that's not a reason for a sudden change in his forecast, that was known already. I guess TP factors in increased traffic from the airline discounts??? @lentesta

Maybe also people in the US cancelling foreign travel in favor of domestic.

 

[Benjamin_Nicholas]

the news just gets worse...

US hospitals should prepare for 96 MILLION coronavirus infections

Slides from a presentation by University of Nebraska Medical Center's Dr. James Lawler show that almost half a million (480,000) Americans could die from coronavirus.

www.dailymail.co.uk

No one with any credibility quotes Daily Mail.

It's basic garbage.

 

[lentesta]

Ok, thanks. But that's not a reason for a sudden change in his forecast, that was known already. I guess TP factors in increased traffic from the airline discounts??? @lentesta

We're trying to figure out the upcoming impact. There's not a recent precedent for this, obviously.

For what it's worth, we're hearing cancellation rates for upcoming trips were around 10% last week, much higher than usual. Lots of people pushed trips to late 2020 or into 2021. Still, new bookings could be down as much as 20%. Both of those numbers got larger as the week went on.

Our year-over-year sales for the past week are down about 18%, which is right in the middle of those numbers. (Before last week we were +7% YTD, so potentially a -25% swing). That includes refunds to people who cancelled trips. Since our users are almost certainly planning a trip, I think that's a decent proxy too.

 

[MrHappy]

We're trying to figure out the upcoming impact. There's not a recent precedent for this, obviously.

For what it's worth, we're hearing cancellation rates for upcoming trips were around 10% last week, much higher than usual. Lots of people pushed trips to late 2020 or into 2021. Still, new bookings could be down as much as 20%. Both of those numbers got larger as the week went on.

Our year-over-year sales for the past week are down about 18%, which is right in the middle of those numbers. (Before last week we were +7% YTD). That includes refunds to people who cancelled trips. Since our users are almost certainly planning a trip, I think that's a decent proxy too.

Thanks @lentesta , you and your team are unbelievable. I really appreciate your work. But if cancels are up, I'm just not sure how your algorithm inceased the predicted crowds. Are you thinking that the discounted flights along with people changing their plans from foreign to domestic are the factors that others suggested? I'm sorry to sound like I'm grilling you. Im just fascinated. And also trying to decide if I should cancel my trip next week.
Thanks and again, your work amazes me.

 

[lentesta]

Thanks @lentesta , you and your team are unbelievable. I really appreciate your work. But if cancels are up, I'm just not sure how your algorithm inceased the predicted crowds. Are you thinking that the discounted flights along with people changing their plans from foreign to domestic are the factors that others suggested? I'm sorry to sound like I'm grilling you. Im just fascinated. And also trying to decide if I should cancel my trip next week.
Thanks and again, your work amazes me.

The latest CL was taking in adjustments from a busier than expected February, and before the COVID-19 cancellations hit. We'll have to update it again, soon, based on that.