I thought it would be fun to consolidate some of the rumors and speculation going on in other threads and also to bring a slightly more business focused narrative to the rumor outbreak regarding upcoming developments at DHS. I caution that a lot of what will be mentioned here is speculation based on "solving for the missing variable" logic in the rumors that are being spread around, but this should hopefully paint a picture about why Disney has rather suddenly decided to call it lights out for Hollywood Studios and start over from scratch.
First off. Hollywood Studios has a dramatic audience retention problem, and it is now also a dramatic attendance problem. Actual attendance figures are basically state secrets and the "attendance estimates" circulated every year are basically BS on a stick, so instead I am going to point to evidence that anyone can investigate using publicly available data and experience.
Much has been made of Animal Kingdom and the "3pm problem" where most of its guests are ready to peace out after six hours. The truth is, Hollywood Studios has the same problem and it really began to show after Wizarding World of Harry Potter opened. Universal Orlando successfully pulled a day off of the typical one week Orlando visit and this is a day that would have been spent at Disney. Probably half at a water park and maybe the evening at a theme park. Or maybe at DTD or at the pool or riding horses at Ft. Wilderness. Whatever. What most guests ended up doing was shortening their time spent at DHS and DAK and consolidating those visits into other activities planned on the same day to accommodate for the time spent at UO. This means Disney still gets that "first click" daily attendance math that gives DHS and DAK abnormally high yearly attendance numbers, but the truth is those visits are shorter and guests are spending less money. Go hang out at the Backlot area of DHS on any given day after 6pm and you will see this in action. It is a ghost town. Star Tours 2 routinely is a walk on in the late evening at Hollywood Studios. Star Wars is a keystone of the upcoming plans for DHS and one of the most popular rides at Disneyland Park in Anaheim at all hours of the day. For this ride to routinely operate as a walk on in Orlando, something is very wrong.
Let's be very clear: up until July 2012, Disney was perfectly fine with this. New Fantasyland was set to dramatically increase guest spending and time spent at their largest and most profitable park and this would naturally lead to a huge increase in earnings from Orlando. Avatar is coming to DAK in a few years. Epcot still sells enough booze to justify its existence. We have a weak link. Who cares. Hotel rooms still sell.
Then, all of a sudden, Universal reduces Soundstage 44 to a pile of rubble and immediately commences construction on Transformers. The concerns about Harry Potter phase two recreating the same attendance miracle at Universal Studios now become reality. In fact, Universal has basically decided to go DCA on the park and completely revitalize it ahead of Diagon Alley. Universal is going to pull a second day off a Disney vacation. Done deal. And it doesn't take a fool to figure out where Disney's theme park product is most redundant at. Oh, by the way, Universal is building a hotel that is squarely aimed at Disney's hotel market. Hotel business doesn't look so safe anymore.
First off. Hollywood Studios has a dramatic audience retention problem, and it is now also a dramatic attendance problem. Actual attendance figures are basically state secrets and the "attendance estimates" circulated every year are basically BS on a stick, so instead I am going to point to evidence that anyone can investigate using publicly available data and experience.
Much has been made of Animal Kingdom and the "3pm problem" where most of its guests are ready to peace out after six hours. The truth is, Hollywood Studios has the same problem and it really began to show after Wizarding World of Harry Potter opened. Universal Orlando successfully pulled a day off of the typical one week Orlando visit and this is a day that would have been spent at Disney. Probably half at a water park and maybe the evening at a theme park. Or maybe at DTD or at the pool or riding horses at Ft. Wilderness. Whatever. What most guests ended up doing was shortening their time spent at DHS and DAK and consolidating those visits into other activities planned on the same day to accommodate for the time spent at UO. This means Disney still gets that "first click" daily attendance math that gives DHS and DAK abnormally high yearly attendance numbers, but the truth is those visits are shorter and guests are spending less money. Go hang out at the Backlot area of DHS on any given day after 6pm and you will see this in action. It is a ghost town. Star Tours 2 routinely is a walk on in the late evening at Hollywood Studios. Star Wars is a keystone of the upcoming plans for DHS and one of the most popular rides at Disneyland Park in Anaheim at all hours of the day. For this ride to routinely operate as a walk on in Orlando, something is very wrong.
Let's be very clear: up until July 2012, Disney was perfectly fine with this. New Fantasyland was set to dramatically increase guest spending and time spent at their largest and most profitable park and this would naturally lead to a huge increase in earnings from Orlando. Avatar is coming to DAK in a few years. Epcot still sells enough booze to justify its existence. We have a weak link. Who cares. Hotel rooms still sell.
Then, all of a sudden, Universal reduces Soundstage 44 to a pile of rubble and immediately commences construction on Transformers. The concerns about Harry Potter phase two recreating the same attendance miracle at Universal Studios now become reality. In fact, Universal has basically decided to go DCA on the park and completely revitalize it ahead of Diagon Alley. Universal is going to pull a second day off a Disney vacation. Done deal. And it doesn't take a fool to figure out where Disney's theme park product is most redundant at. Oh, by the way, Universal is building a hotel that is squarely aimed at Disney's hotel market. Hotel business doesn't look so safe anymore.