It's my understanding (and I could be wrong, becuz I'll admit that my source is another discussion forum) that many timeshare companies already have some sort of penalties/exclusions that apply to resales only.
That is correct. Wyndham has a VIP program which combines direct sales benefits with additional perks for high point owners There are 3 different tiers depending upon the number of points owned and
only direct purchase points count toward the total.
Their basic VIP level--which is the equivalent of about 300 DVC points--grants some fairly benign perks. Some of the perks for VIP members include early check-in (2pm), unlimited housekeeping credits, VIP check-in desk and a 25% discounts on reservations booked less than 60 days before arrival.
Gold VIP--which is about 500 DVC points--adds things like free daily newspaper, extensions to banking deadlines, the ability to reserve a specific room number, unlimited booking transactions (Wyndham charges if you go over a certain number in a year) and one time per year Gold members can even book a NON-HOME resort at 11 months.
Platinum VIP (about 1000 DVC points) has a 50% discount on >60 days bookings, even more time to bank points and TWO opportunities to book a non-home at 11 months pear year.
Clearly other timeshare systems have much more complicated rules and perk programs, so I don't buy member/agent confusion as a reason why they wouldn't do this. From the agent (Cast Member) perspective, all they need to do is have things laid out properly in the computer system. And DVC is in the midst of substantial system upgrades. Hmmm....
So...so far, I have 2 votes for "only internet rumors".
I firmly believe there is substance to this, HOWEVER DVC hasn't signed-off on it yet. All of the ideas you have seen floated out there are concepts that had to be vetted by Disney legal. Just because they investigated whether it would be legal to limit resale buyers to their Home resort doesn't mean that such a policy will make it into the final rules.
If I were a betting man, I'd say that there is a 90% chance we see some sort of direct purchase benefit program come January 1st. But the exact make-up of it is still a total mystery.
In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if it was a tiered program just like Wyndham's. As another poster mentioned, DVC has floated the idea of additional benefits for high point owners. And that's more than just a rumor--about 9 months ago they sent a survey to high point owners asking for feedback on a list of different perks options. A couple months after that they sent a separate survey to even more members quizzing folks on which perks were the most highly valued.
The Wyndham framework would seem to fit in with all of the proverbial smoke that has been coming out of DVC in the last year--multiple benefit tiers with only direct purchase points counting toward one's total. In retrospect the surveys look like an attempt to gauge which perks are best placed in each level of ownership. For instance, if the Annual Pass discount was rated highest among all perks, DVC may want to throw that into at least their entry level VIP program as a pretty strong incentive to buy 300 points direct rather than giving it away to anyone who buys 100 pts resale.
Does anyone have any great insight to what would happen the resale market (prices stay the same, prices plummet..) if, IF, these changes take place?
Depends upon the exact nature of the changes. If they simply prohibit resale points from being used for RCI/DCL and other exchanges, the results will be MUCH different than if they only allow resale buyers to stay at their Home resort.
I think it's a given that resale prices will decline to some degree. Any perks program will sway SOME buyers, which then has corresponding negative impact on resale. But the devil will be in the details.
Many (most?) members should also benefit from the changes. Think about the proposals that would limit the booking rights of resale buyers. IF that were to actually happen, over time you have a lot fewer members with access to the smaller, more popular destinations. If a resale owners of SSR points can only book BLT 4 months out--or is outright prohibited from booking BLT--then other owners certainly benefit from increased 11/7 month booking success.
Resale prices would undoubtedly suffer but that simply reinforces the idea that DVC points should not be purchased recklessly. Buy what you're going to use and don't look at DVC as some sort of emergency fund that can be liquidated at the first sign of trouble.
If you buy points and hold the contract for 40-50 years, the financial advantages of DVC are still quite clear. And with a VIP program in place, owners may make out even better than before.
(Footnote: Didn't have a better place to say this but personally I believe DVC will grandfather all existing resales when the policy if put into place. If they go with a multi-tiered program like Wyndham, at the very least I could see them placing all resale owners at the first-tier level (VIP), if not outright recognizing all points as direct purchases.)