Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

First pass at the box office is in for this weekend!

It was a slow weekend numbers-wise, but Predator: Badlands slipped down to #3 and is showing weak legs going forward. Another one is going to lose a decent chunk of money at the box office for Burbank this year.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for January 2, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of January 2, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Did I hear right that the new predator movie is a buddy adventure movie with cute Disney sidekicks?

 

[TP2000]

With critic and audience scores much much higher here, 85%/95% respectively, and a A- Cinemascore, that indicates a much lower drop week to week because audiences seem to like it, indicating it has the potential to actually get passed $200M.

We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but there is reason to be optimistic.

Optimism faded fast for Predator: Badlands, where it dropped 68% in its second weekend. It has already opened everywhere globally, and is doing just as wobbly overseas as it has done domestically.

It's on a track to make something just north of $200 Million globally, which would mean a loss of about $20 Million for Burbank.

I could be wrong and this movie could drop like a stone…. But looking at this weekend I don’t believe it will….

I believe it is possible it is in good position with the 3 day weekend and if it can hang in there this month the film will play through Thanksgiving weekend

The global audience didn't go back for seconds on Predator: Badlands after Veteran's Day weekend, so there's very little chance now they'll be going back for seconds on it for Thanksgiving weekend.

An A- CinemaScore is usually a 3.4 multiplier of opening week.

So, a total of about $272 total Box Office.

Usually.

After its second weekend, it seems headed to around $225 Million globally as its best case scenario (maybe $200 Million worst case?). Getting to $200-225 Million globally would result would incur a loss of about $20 Million for Burbank on this modestly budgeted movie that "only" cost them $100 Million to make.

It doesn't matter if it is a 50% drop or had the best cinemascope ever, It still won't break even at the box office. It does not have the legs and is hindered by the slate of new movies coming out in 2 weeks.

After 10 days in global theaters, it now has weak legs.

even if it drops 50% next weekend that is still alright for this type…. And it will still have the potential to cross 200

Getting it to cross $200 Million would mean a loss of $20 Million or so. That's not a good result, vaporizing $20 Million.

Predator: Badlands (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Predator: Badlands (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Optimism faded fast for Predator: Badlands, where it dropped 68% in its second weekend. It has already opened everywhere globally, and is doing just as wobbly overseas as it has done domestically.

It's on a track to make something just north of $200 Million globally, which would mean a loss of about $20 Million for Burbank.



The global audience didn't go back for seconds on Predator: Badlands after Veteran's Day weekend, so there's very little chance now they'll be going back for seconds on it for Thanksgiving weekend.



After its second weekend, it seems headed to around $225 Million globally as its best case scenario (maybe $200 Million worst case?). Getting to $200-225 Million globally would result would incur a loss of about $20 Million for Burbank on this modestly budgeted movie that "only" cost them $100 Million to make.



After 10 days in global theaters, it now has weak legs.

View attachment 893117



Getting it to cross $200 Million would mean a loss of $20 Million or so. That's not a good result, vaporizing $20 Million.

Predator: Badlands (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Predator: Badlands (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

If it does cross $200M then that puts it as a certainty for profitability, maybe just not during theatrical. Which as discussed many many times is becoming less of a factor now as time goes on.

 

[monothingie]

Optimism faded fast for Predator: Badlands, where it dropped 68% in its second weekend. It has already opened everywhere globally, and is doing just as wobbly overseas as it has done domestically.

It's on a track to make something just north of $200 Million globally, which would mean a loss of about $20 Million for Burbank.



The global audience didn't go back for seconds on Predator: Badlands after Veteran's Day weekend, so there's very little chance now they'll be going back for seconds on it for Thanksgiving weekend.



After its second weekend, it seems headed to around $225 Million globally as its best case scenario (maybe $200 Million worst case?). Getting to $200-225 Million globally would result would incur a loss of about $20 Million for Burbank on this modestly budgeted movie that "only" cost them $100 Million to make.



After 10 days in global theaters, it now has weak legs.

View attachment 893117



Getting it to cross $200 Million would mean a loss of $20 Million or so. That's not a good result, vaporizing $20 Million.

Predator: Badlands (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Predator: Badlands (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

It looses money for sure, but I don’t see a path for it to make it past $170M WW.

Either way this movie needed to cost $50M not $100M.

Until Hollywood can figure out how to cut their production budgets in half, this is going to be the new norm. Forget garbage writing, political, activism, and the “message“; with the cost of these turds, they’re more or less doomed before the first day of production wraps.

 

[monothingie]

If it does cross $200M then that puts it as a certainty for profitability, maybe just not during theatrical. Which as discussed many many times is becoming less of a factor now as time goes on.

Never mind, marketing, and never mind you moving the goal post. Even if this gets to a breakeven point at some point in the future, is that really a success?

You really have no idea what you’re talking about At all.

 

[Disney Irish]

Never mind, marketing, and never mind you moving the goal post. Even if this gets to a breakeven point at some point in the future, is that really a success?

You really have no idea what you’re talking about At all.

Lol, I'm not moving any goal post, nor does this have to do with marketing as that was already accounted for. The statement that it'll lose $20M by TP is true if you only count the theatrical earnings of a movie and don't count anything else. Which as we know as discussed many many many times is not the only money a movie earns in its lifetime.

So a $10M-$20M loss during theatrical is basically a guarantee of it reaching profitability during post-theatrical. Some of you all just don't want to accept that a movie can make money after the box office. Because it wouldn't fit your narrative.

Also as mentioned Disney doesn't really brag about movies they don't think are a success, and they have for this movie. So its clear inside the walls of Burbank they do think this movie is a success.

So no you really don't know what you're talking about here.

 

[monothingie]

Lol, I'm not moving any goal post, nor does this have to do with marketing as that was already accounted for. The statement that it'll lose $20M by TP is true if you only count the theatrical earnings of a movie and don't count anything else. Which as we know as discussed many many many times is not the only money a movie earns in its lifetime.

So a $10M-$20M loss during theatrical is basically a guarantee of it reaching profitability during post-theatrical. Some of you all just don't want to accept that a movie can make money after the box office. Because it wouldn't fit your narrative.

Also as mentioned Disney doesn't really brag about movies they don't think are a success, and they have for this movie. So its clear inside the walls of Burbank they do think this movie is a success.

So no you really don't know what you're talking about here.

You’re a troll right?

That has to be the most convoluted, self-serving, ridiculous cope I’ve heard in a while.

 

[Disney Irish]

You’re a troll right?

That has to be the most convoluted, self-serving, ridiculous cope I’ve heard in a while.

Not at all, I'm just old enough to remember a time when a majority of movies didn't rely on the box office to be deemed profitable or a success. Many many many movies only became successful and profitable after the box office. Its only since the 2010s that this perception that a movie had to make all its money and be profitable during theatrical.

Also its the same discussion that has been had about many movies over the years here both Disney and non-Disney movies alike.

Now lets see what the final numbers will be for Badlands.

 

[monothingie]

Not at all, I'm just old enough to remember a time when a majority of movies didn't rely on the box office to be deemed profitable or a success. Many many many movies only became successful and profitable after the box office. Its only since the 2010s that this perception that a movie had to make all its money and be profitable during theatrical.

Also its the same discussion that has been had about many movies over the years here both Disney and non-Disney movies alike.

Now lets see what the final numbers will be for Badlands.

Physical media sales was the icing on the cake for productions. Of course, the age of DTC killed that. But ask yourself this question, with the streaming rights going to Disney, from Disney, which is already likely been pre-negotiated, does that really mean anything for the net profitability of the production?

Spoiler alert it doesn’t.

With very few exceptions, the revenue generation post theatrical release just doesn’t amount to anything. Even if it was $20 million, which would be on the high end, it still doesn’t change the movie at best Breaking even.

 

[Disney Irish]

Physical media sales was the icing on the cake for productions. Of course, the age of DTC killed that. But ask yourself this question, with the streaming rights going to Disney, from Disney, which is already likely been pre-negotiated, does that really mean anything for the net profitability of the production?

Spoiler alert it doesn’t.

With very few exceptions, the revenue generation post theatrical release just doesn’t amount to anything. Even if it was $20 million, which would be on the high end, it still doesn’t change the movie at best Breaking even.

Digital sales and rentals are still a thing even in 2025. So are other media deals for other rights before just Disney’s own DTC.

All of that to say yeah it can get into profitability on a $20M short from theatrical.

Deadline does a good write up on it in spring, so we can discuss it again then if you really want to.

 

[Nevermore525]

Badlands already highest grossing solo Predator film domestically after 2 weekends. Anything over $200M and it will turn a profit long term between digital sales and licensing agreements. Not only the revenue share from D+ but other streamers who are still picking up Fox content (Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes went from D+/Hulu, to Prime, to now it is being licensed by HBO)

 

[TP2000]

Badlands already highest grossing solo Predator film domestically after 2 weekends.

Here's how that looks adjusted for inflation, since the original movie is almost 40 years old, and the first sequel is 35 years old.

Predator 1987: $18 Budget, $98 Global Box Office = $77 Million profit (inflation adjusted)
Predator 2 1990: $35 Budget, $55 Global Box Office = $25 Million loss (inflation adjusted)
Predators 2010: $40 Budget, $127 Global Box Office = $21 Million profit (inflation adjusted)
The Predator 2018: $88 Budget, $159 Global Box Office = $40 Million loss (inflation adjusted)

Predator Badlands 2025: $105 Budget, $136 Global Box Office = $64 Million loss (thus far, in 2025 dollars)

If I were to bet two churros on this, I'd say Predator: Badlands is heading towards a loss just slightly better than the inflation adjusted $25 Million that was lost with Predator 2 in 1990.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’re a troll right?

That has to be the most convoluted, self-serving, ridiculous cope I’ve heard in a while.

Not a troll…one that makes 1000 excuses a week for Disney mistakes past, present and undoubtedly future…

Keep calm and pay it no mind

 

[Disney Irish]

Not a troll…one that makes 1000 excuses a week for Disney mistakes past, present and undoubtedly future…

Keep calm and pay it no mind

You're funny Walt, not making excuses. If this movie fails it fails, but we have to be honest about the actual state of things. This movie about 20-30 years ago would have been seen as successful with these same numbers and yet some claim its a failure here now, wonder what changed....

 

[TP2000]

This movie about 20-30 years ago would have been seen as successful with these same numbers and yet some claim its a failure here now, wonder what changed....

A quarter century of price inflation changed.

25 years ago, these same box office numbers, would have produced these results today adjusted for inflation...

2001 Box Office
Predator: Badlands - Global Box Office After Week 2 = $136 Million

2025 Box Office
Predator: Badlands - Global Box Office After Week 2 = $252 Million, Adjusted $136 Million For Inflation Since 2001

If this movie had just crossed the $250 Million threshold in its second weekend, it would have already crossed into profitability.

Predator: Badlands has not done that in our current timeline of 2025, and is now fading fast at the box office globally and is currently running a $64 Million loss for Burbank.

CPI Inflation Calculator

www.bls.gov

 

[coffeefan]

It is time.

 

[TP2000]

For those who like the totals down to the last discontinued penny, this past weekend's box office totals are now in...

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for January 2, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of January 2, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

A quarter century of price inflation changed.

25 years ago, these same box office numbers, would have produced these results today adjusted for inflation...

2001 Box Office
Predator: Badlands - Global Box Office After Week 2 = $136 Million

2025 Box Office
Predator: Badlands - Global Box Office After Week 2 = $252 Million, Adjusted $136 Million For Inflation Since 2001

If this movie had just crossed the $250 Million threshold in its second weekend, it would have already crossed into profitability.

Predator: Badlands has not done that in our current timeline of 2025, and is now fading fast at the box office globally and is currently running a $64 Million loss for Burbank.

CPI Inflation Calculator

www.bls.gov

Wasn't were I was going with that.

 

[coffeefan]

For those who like the totals down to the last discontinued penny, this past weekend's box office totals are now in...

View attachment 893231

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for January 2, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of January 2, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

Ouch at the Running Man. Didn't that have a similar budget to Badlands? Are we going to see some essays about that one?