Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Call me crazy, but since some of you question the public numbers released I don’t think the studio execs worry or care as much as you think.

Plus if they do care it’s primarily about year end numbers not individual movies. So as long as the year end numbers are in the black that is all that matters and they’ll be happy.

The common sense side of me thinks that is complete nonsense, no studio exec should knowingly green light a single movie they don’t think has a good chance of being profitable… the last several years of consistent failures has me thinking you are correct though, studios seem perfectly content greenlighting movies that seemingly have little to no chance at even breaking even.

With every studio struggling with flop after flop I’m not sure if that’s a sign they don’t care about profits or they simply have no clue how to navigate the current movie environment.

 

[Disney Irish]

The common sense side of me thinks that is complete nonsense, no studio exec should knowingly green light a single movie they don’t think has a good chance of being profitable… the last several years of consistent failures has me thinking you are correct though, studios seem perfectly content greenlighting movies that seemingly have little to no chance at even breaking even.

Look at history going back to the 80s and 90s, and even early 00s. For 30+ years every studio greenlit movies they knew wouldn't be successful in theaters. Only hoping it made something so it can hopefully become profitable down the line in post-theatrical, sound familiar?

We just went through a period in the late 00s and 10s where everyone thought things changed because we started getting $1B movies. But reality is that other than the changes to post-theatrical, nothing changed in terms of how they greenlight movies. They know not all movies are going to be winners, that is just the nature of business. The only thing that really changed was public perception and expectation that every movie was to be a winner. I've long said we need an expectation reset, and I think we're finally getting it these last couple years.

With every studio struggling with flop after flop I’m not sure if that’s a sign they don’t care about profits or they simply have no clue how to navigate the current movie environment.

I think its a combination of both. We're in a tougher market than we have been in the last 15ish years, and so they are trying a bunch of things.

 

[MisterPenguin]

So when does the Matterhorn go down for Predator Mountain overlay?

Already installed. He's in stealth mode.

 

[DKampy]

It needs 200 million just to break even. That doesn’t even include marketing. It won’t even come close to Breaking even.

I could be wrong and this movie could drop like a stone…. But looking at this weekend I don’t believe it will…. Every time the projections were updated they went up…. Which says word of mouth is great.. and I have not seen much negative reactions myself….. completely different movies….however One Battle after Another opened much less and is about to cross the 200 million mark worldwide

I beieve it is possible it is in good position with the 3 day weekend and if it can hang in there this month the film will play through Thanksgiving weekend

Of course anything can happen in the post Covid world where which films succeed is more unpredictable then ever before… so we will see what happens

 

[monothingie]

I could be wrong and this movie could drop like a stone…. But looking at this weekend I don’t believe it will…. Every time the projections were updated they went up…. Which says word of mouth is great.. and I have not seen much negative reactions myself….. completely different movies….however One Battle after Another opened much less and is about to cross the 200 million mark worldwide

I beieve it is possible it is in good position with the 3 day weekend and if it can hang in there this month the film will play through Thanksgiving weekend

Of course anything can happen in the post Covid world where which films succeed is more unpredictable then ever before… so we will see what happens

Doubtful. The best comparison is Alien vs Predator which hauled in around $39M domestic opening weekend (unadjusted for inflation). That had a weekly drop of around 70% and finished with a WW gross of $177M.

Comparing it to Badlands there are some major differences. First the focus on premium format theaters means that this source of revenue goes away rapidly when the premium format screens are bumped, which will happen to this in a week or two. Second, there are fewer butts in seats (but they spend more per seat), the word of mouth impact for a limited appeal franchise movie really doesn't factor.

It may be a great movie, but at the reported $100M plus whatever marketing, it just doesn't have the legs, with the competition from the upcoming slate of releases to make it back.

 

[coffeefan]

What do they only get back $.10 on the dollar for theater revenue from the Chicoms?

It's pretty important, considering China is where Disney had the highest percentage increase in attendance.

 

[TP2000]

What do they only get back $.10 on the dollar for theater revenue from the Chicoms?

Good question! And that's a topic we haven't discussed here much.

The price of movie tickets in Communist China is low compared to the US. But they can make it up on volume. Still, the final box office dollar amount from red China is what it is. And I imagine the CCP gets a healthy take, what with controlling the means of production and all.

 

[MisterPenguin]

‘Predator: Badlands’ Sets Franchise Box Office Record | The Walt Disney Company

'Predator: Badlands' opened No. 1 at the global box office with an estimated $80 million, and Disney crossed $4 billion at the 2025 box office.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

 

[DKampy]

Doubtful. The best comparison is Alien vs Predator which hauled in around $39M domestic opening weekend (unadjusted for inflation). That had a weekly drop of around 70% and finished with a WW gross of $177M.

That is a poor comparison…I can almost guarantee this film will have less than a 70% drop off…. These days that big of a drop off is usually reserved for only the biggest audience rejected movies…. Alien Vs Predator was not well received at the time except among the die hards….I think this movie has broader appeal past the core demographic of older males…. In fact I was partly responsible for the improved demographics… as the younger demos improved as the weekend

 

[MisterPenguin]

Box Office Badass: ‘Predator Badlands’ Kicks Off November With Record $40M U.S. Opening, $80M Globally

The 20th Century and Disney franchise reboot came in well ahead of an expectations to end a major slump in moviegoing after winning over critics and audiences alike.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

‘Zootopia 2’ Tracking to Feast on Huge $125M-Plus Opening at Thanksgiving Box Office

The Walt Disney Animation buddy cop adventure reunites voice stars Ginnifer Goodwin and Jason Bateman, with franchise newcomers including Ke Huy Quan.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[coffeefan]

That is a poor comparison…I can almost guarantee this film will have less than a 70% drop off…. These days that big of a drop off is usually reserved for only the biggest audience rejected movies…. Alien Vs Predator was not well received at the time except among the die hards….I think this movie has broader appeal past the core demographic of older males…. In fact I was partly responsible for the improved demographics… as the younger demos improved as the weekend

Same here. I haven't seen any of the movies from this franchise, but the trailer and positive WOM got my interest.

 

[coffeefan]

Glowing review from Kojima.

 

[Prince-1]

Yes at all… him and I had this conversation couple of years ago discussing Poor Things….Mentioned the family does not watch Rated R movies… It was recommended not to watch with his Kids…. And he explained. Their household has rules and what would his wife think if she walked in on him watching a rated R movie

Sounds good to me. Making the wife happy is a definite priority over watching R rated movies. I don't get it but hey, different strokes for different folks.

 

[Disney Irish]

Doubtful. The best comparison is Alien vs Predator which hauled in around $39M domestic opening weekend (unadjusted for inflation). That had a weekly drop of around 70% and finished with a WW gross of $177M.

Comparing it to Badlands there are some major differences. First the focus on premium format theaters means that this source of revenue goes away rapidly when the premium format screens are bumped, which will happen to this in a week or two. Second, there are fewer butts in seats (but they spend more per seat), the word of mouth impact for a limited appeal franchise movie really doesn't factor.

It may be a great movie, but at the reported $100M plus whatever marketing, it just doesn't have the legs, with the competition from the upcoming slate of releases to make it back.

You can't compare it with AvP though, critic and audience scores for that movie were in the tank, 21%/39% respectively, and a B Cinemascore. So that 70% drop was due to audiences not liking the movie.

With critic and audience scores much much higher here, 85%/95% respectively, and a A- Cinemascore, that indicates a much lower drop week to week because audiences seem to like it, indicating it has the potential to actually get passed $200M.

We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but there is reason to be optimistic.

 

[MisterPenguin]

An A- CinemaScore is usually a 3.4 multiplier of opening week.

So, a total of about $272 total Box Office.

Usually.

 

[LSLS]

An A- CinemaScore is usually a 3.4 multiplier of opening week.

So, a total of about $272 total Box Office.

Usually.

Is that based on all historic, or has it been adjusted for the more recent trends? I am far from able to even venture a guess on this movie, but it has felt like movies in the last few years have done much differently than expected after opening weekend. And honestly, just based on what I see random writings on, it feels like the high rated ones by viewers seem to leg out longer now than before. Like maybe people won't just go see it to try it, they wait for word of mouth before deciding to spend as much money as they cost to go now.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Is that based on all historic, or has it been adjusted for the more recent trends? I am far from able to even venture a guess on this movie, but it has felt like movies in the last few years have done much differently than expected after opening weekend. And honestly, just based on what I see random writings on, it feels like the high rated ones by viewers seem to leg out longer now than before. Like maybe people won't just go see it to try it, they wait for word of mouth before deciding to spend as much money as they cost to go now.

Historic.

 

[monothingie]

You can't compare it with AvP though, critic and audience scores for that movie were in the tank, 21%/39% respectively, and a B Cinemascore. So that 70% drop was due to audiences not liking the movie.

With critic and audience scores much much higher here, 85%/95% respectively, and a A- Cinemascore, that indicates a much lower drop week to week because audiences seem to like it, indicating it has the potential to actually get passed $200M.

We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but there is reason to be optimistic.

It doesn't matter if it is a 50% drop or had the best cinemascope ever, It still won't break even at the box office. It does not have the legs and is hindered by the slate of new movies coming out in 2 weeks.

All that I hear is cope for some reason.

 

[DKampy]

It doesn't matter if it is a 50% drop or had the best cinemascope ever, It still won't break even at the box office. It does not have the legs and is hindered by the slate of new movies coming out in 2 weeks.

All that I hear is cope for some reason.

No cope here…As someone who enjoys going to the movies every week I want Theaters to do well no matter the studio…. Even if it is Anime ( which I am not a fan of)propping them up…. Yes I am a fan of Disney as I would expect we all are… this is a Disney fan forum after all… but I have no personal stake in Disney profits… if it drops like a stone… I’ll gladly admit I was wrong…. But I don’t believe that will happen… even if it drops 50% next weekend that is still alright for this type…. And it will still have the potential to cross 200