News Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2025 Earnings Results Webcast

[BrianLo]

Here's the assumptions I'm working with:

• 2024 domestic attendance of 76.489MM from the TEA report
• Q1 and Q4 are higher attendance according to Disney's 10-Q reports, so weigh them as contributing 30% each towards attendance. Weight Q2 and Q3 at 20% each.
• We know the Q1, Q2, and Q3 attendance changes from those 10-Qs, too.
  • There's probably some rounding in there, but we don't know

So then the question is "How much did attendance change in Q4 to get to -1% overall?"

And yeah, it works out to be around -4% in one quarter:

View attachment 892817

I could be wrong but that seems ballpark-y. I haven't tried different weights for the quarterly variations in attendance.

It is probably also a rounded -1% figure, would also be my presumption. Meaning it could be closer to -2/-3.

Q4 fully is in Epic’s shadow either way.

 

[BrianLo]

I understand that plenty of people do consider cruises as a viable alternative to a theme park, but I will never understand why. They aren't even remotely similar things to me.

Like, yes, it's an alternative vacation you could take, just like going to Europe is an alternative. But, at least to me, it's like suggesting someone that wants to go skiing could just go to the beach instead.

They are overlapping more than you’d think. If a Disney park experience is summarized as lapping Tron then no, it’s not an equivocal experience at all. But if one is looking at resorts, characters, entertainment, service within the wrapping of a Disney bubble, a lot of people are finding it a natural substitute. It scratches the same itch, one that is for better or worse a branding itch.

Ostensibly you have cruise operators like RCL that are increasingly turning into a water park land operators. There seems to be an endpoint that Disney has a Typhoon lagoon equivalent in the Bahamas.

 

[BrianLo]

The hyperventilation over the last 12 hours did not fail to disappoint me.

Revenue and operating income at experiences remains significantly up since 2019 and even more since 2015. Disney survived an economic catastrophe they’ve never seen before that required the shuttering then severe disruption of their experiences portfolio for years. They survived a coordinated political attack, a malicious corporate takeover, an even worse CEO. They survived the complete undoing of their primary income source(s). Including their own self destruction of theatrical.

The company is neither currently in an exciting place. Nor is experiences their struggling buisness unit. Nothing remotely exciting was in this report. The company is fortuitously in a boring phase.

 

[Tha Realest]

All is good right now because the top 10% have been riding out one if, if not the longest duration, bull markets in history and one that has produced ~235% returns over the past decade, while also seeing one of their larger assets, their houses, essentially double in value.

Good point. Here is what a $1,000 investment in DIS would be worth today:

 

[MisterPenguin]

Disney Unfazed by Universal Epic Universe, Impact on Walt Disney World Lower Than Forecasted

Disney CFO Hugh Johnston comments on Universal Epic Universe, noting that the impact it had on Disney World was lower than expected

blogmickey.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

CFO Says Disney Has No M&A Plans, Pokes Rivals For Splitting Assets — “What You Do When You Don’t Have A Great Business”

Disney CFO Hugh Johnston said the company plans to sit out the latest wave of M&A and poked rivals who plan to split their businesses.

deadline.com

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Addressing part of @PREMiERdrum post from earlier…

Expansion of the luggage services is a sign that they know they need the buses back. But Bob never “loses”…so he needs a recession of some type to spend the money…A “don’t blame me” to his investors

I think he wants that for a few things

I'm not sure we'll ever see a legacy DME-like system again, but value-adds like the baggage handling test could go along way.

And, DisneyNittany, I get it. Shameful that enforcement expected guidelines to be followed.

 

[JoeCamel]

CFO Says Disney Has No M&A Plans, Pokes Rivals For Splitting Assets — “What You Do When You Don’t Have A Great Business”

Disney CFO Hugh Johnston said the company plans to sit out the latest wave of M&A and poked rivals who plan to split their businesses.

deadline.com

Could you imagine the shockwaves if he had said they were exploring options?
Really he can't say anything else so the question is suspect for cause.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Good point. Here is what a $1,000 investment in DIS would be worth today:

View attachment 892878

…Those are some solid @$$ returns…

 

[Touchdown]

…Those are some solid @$$ returns…

Especially if you account for inflation, you lost money. Of course all but a handful of stocks on earth would have similar, or worse outcomes.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Good point. Here is what a $1,000 investment in DIS would be worth today:

View attachment 892878

Now try going 20 years back and compare them with their competitors.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Especially if you account for inflation, you lost money. Of course all but a handful of stocks on earth would have similar, or worse outcomes.

Wow…I just Remember when Eisner was EVIL…20 years of investment…those stock splits…

Just awful

Studios Paris did suck though…put the idiot under him who was a throw in when he bought espn in charge!!!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Now try going 20 years back and compare them with their competitors.

So is that
“Somedays you get the bear and somedays the bear gets you?” Logic?

I’d even agree with it…if the product was still the same quality

…ummm…no

If you bought those shares…more like 25 years ago during the dot.com crash, digital media switch and 2002 recession…you made some nice scratch…

Like enough to pay for one of your rental houses

But if you bought it 10 years ago…during the “biggest boom in the world ever!!!” You haven’t made enough to buy a donut

 

[UNCgolf]

They are overlapping more than you’d think. If a Disney park experience is summarized as lapping Tron then no, it’s not an equivocal experience at all. But if one is looking at resorts, characters, entertainment, service within the wrapping of a Disney bubble, a lot of people are finding it a natural substitute. It scratches the same itch, one that is for better or worse a branding itch.

Ostensibly you have cruise operators like RCL that are increasingly turning into a water park land operators. There seems to be an endpoint that Disney has a Typhoon lagoon equivalent in the Bahamas.

No no, I know they are -- I'm just saying that it personally would not work at all for me. I like theme parks (although I don't go very often) and I strongly dislike cruises. A cruise is just about the last thing I'd ever do for a vacation; I'd need someone to pay me to take one.

I suppose it makes more sense to me if the goal is just to be immersed in "Disney", but Disney IP was never the reason I enjoyed Disney theme parks (not that I don't also enjoy Disney IP, but original EPCOT was why I fell in love with WDW), so a cruise ship filled with Disney IP doesn't sound any more appealing to me than one without Disney IP.

 

[BrianLo]

No no, I know they are -- I'm just saying that it personally would not work at all for me. I like theme parks (although I don't go very often) and I strongly dislike cruises.

Exactly. I think you don’t value any of the areas that overlap, which is obviously fine.

I will say that service, food and entertainment exceed Disney’s land experience. Though as far as DCL is concerned I find they are very overpriced.

A cruise is just about the last thing I'd ever do for a vacation; I'd need someone to pay me to take one.

I’m curious what sort of past experience you have with them? You might be surprised. There’s a wide space between a Carnival to Nassau, a bike and barge in Europe or an expedition vessel to Antarctica. It’s a pretty broad industry. There’s usually a brand, size, experience and type for most people.

 

[John park hopper]

Attendence is down but revenue is up ------revenue is up because they raised the prices on everything ==Duh

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Attendence is down but revenue is up ------revenue is up because they raised the prices on everything ==Duh

Yeah…I really hope that sunk in by today?

But I doubt it

 

[Ayla]

Now try going 20 years back and compare them with their competitors.

We aren't discussing their competitors.

 

[el_super]

We aren't discussing their competitors.

Because they're doing pretty well compared to their competitors.

 

[Touchdown]

Because they're doing pretty well compared to their competitors.

If you’re going back 20 years it’s going to be impossible to compare anyways. Currently the only competition who is part of a media conglomerate is Universal/Comcast, which didn’t exist 20 years ago (Universal was with GE at the time.)