News Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2025 Earnings Results Webcast

[Sirwalterraleigh]

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It’s terrible…well below the markets and also what’s needed to weather the mounting economic pressures

 

[el_super]

The talk I hear now is how expensive a Disney vacation is.

That is not a favorable shift in customer perception.

Disney stated that the record volumes of attendance were hurting their business too. You can't keep cramming more people into the parks and expect people to be OK with that.

So between the two, what hurts more, overcrowding or high prices?

 

[JD80]

My simple brain just tells me if they are offering as many discounts as they are, they are below target on the number of bodies they want in the parks. And I'm also sure they want more money per person. I mean who doesn't?

"As many discounts as they are".

Answer these questions:
How many discounts are the offering now?
How many were they offering last year?
How many discounts were they offering 6 years ago?
How many discounts where they offering 10 years ago?

Whats so special about now? The only discounts I'm aware of to the general public are hotel discounts and the 109/day to non MK park special.

They are offering discounts to military, locals and Georgia residents.

Hotel occupancy rates, domestically are trending upwards closer to 2019 levels.

 

[JD80]

Disney stated that the record volumes of attendance were hurting their business too. You can't keep cramming more people into the parks and expect people to be OK with that.

So between the two, what hurts more, overcrowding or high prices?

More people = more operational costs + more staff + more unhappy
More people = more staff.
Slightly less people + less staff + less operational costs = more money + happier guests

 

[Mr. Sullivan]

What confuses me is if Disney wants Less people who spend more, why all of the discounts lately?

I think the answer to this can really be found in who these discounts are targeting and how Disney actually benefits from them.

Generally speaking, their discounts are on upfront costs such as park tickets or hotel rooms. They are not really placing any sort of discounts on the “hidden cost” of a Disney vacation such as dining, merchandise, special packages (such as Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique or fireworks viewing), and now lightning lane.

They are putting a discount on the things that will get certain kinds of people to the parks. Once those people are there and have become a captive audience, it is much easier for Disney to sell them expensive things inside the park that make them easy money. People are a lot less likely to say “no that’s too expensive” if they’re already there so Disney is willing to shave off a few bucks on the up front side.

But them doing this also doesn’t really go against their philosophy of they want less people who are spending more. They don’t hide these discounts from anybody, but they also don’t promote them to just anybody. For example, over in Disneyland, the special ticket offers were only made to certain people. I am in a Disney discord server and a bunch of us were talking about how some people got emails about these ticket offers while others did not.

Disney long ago decided what kind of person needs that kind of bait in order to come to their parks. They’re not putting these offers in front of everybody, they are putting these offers in front of demographics they have identified as easily persuadable by such an offer who are simultaneously useful for them.

Disney is not doing these discounts to convince the people who don’t want to go to Disney to come or to get lower income families in the gates, nor are they doing these discounts to favor those who want to come to Disney already and can afford it on their own. These discounts are aimed at people in between who are on the fence, but are intimidated by the price. Disney wants to and is somewhat successfully convincing them that they’re gonna be saving money on a vacation because their tickets and their hotel room is cheaper, and it IS cheaper. But Disney is also gonna be making a lot of money off of those guests because they’re gonna be spending a lot once they actually get there.

Disney has already cornered the market of higher income guests, and have already put a lot of distance between themselves and lower income guests. They are currently experimenting with those in the middle. And works for them for now because they’re able to dangle a carrot in front of those people without having their parks overrun because they are controlling who in that demographic of people are seeing the carrot in the first place.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney stated that the record volumes of attendance were hurting their business too. You can't keep cramming more people into the parks and expect people to be OK with that.

So between the two, what hurts more, overcrowding or high prices?

Both are due to bad management

 

[Touchdown]

plus their profit is highly dependent on LL. Sure you can cut capacity but eventually you lose enough guests the lines will still be short. Thats when people stop buying LL, and then you’re up poop creek without a paddle.

 

[Trauma]

Disney stated that the record volumes of attendance were hurting their business too. You can't keep cramming more people into the parks and expect people to be OK with that.

So between the two, what hurts more, overcrowding or high prices?

What hurts more is the brand damage of being perceived as a rip off.

As far as cramming more people into overcrowded parks last time I checked Disney can limit the capacity to their parks.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

plus their profit is highly dependent on LL. Sure you can cut capacity but eventually you lose enough guests the lines will still be short. Thats when people stop buying LL, and then you’re up poop creek without a paddle.

What if the word gets out that the unpaid vloggers and podders (who lurk here) are full of crap and pushing a “demand” narrative at corporate behest and just are too Dumb to realize it?

Or mom loses her house and they have to go to chick fila (that one is inevitable)?

Lightning lane demand…is a “confidence” game now as well…it’s implied need not based on the Crowd size

Yeah…I go and see it…and have gone for decades to know the evolution…
Guilty…

Maybe if I go every 3 years instead I’ll get more stupid and make more friends at the dust dispensary? It’s worth a shot

 

[Trauma]

NVIDIA is down 4%, Tesla is down 7%, Intel is down 6%, Palantir is down 7%

Wall Street is Wall Street.

Compare the trailing 52 weeks for those companies to Disney.


NVIDIA stock is up approximately 122.06% over the last 52 weeks, with a 52-week range of $86.62 to $212.19


Walt Disney (DIS) has delivered a -1.38% change over the past year, with a 52-week range between 80.10 and 124.69.

One of these things is not like the other ….

 

[Mr. Sullivan]

Which fad?

Lighting lane?

No, streaming being king and AI being a buzz word.

Other than the simple reality that many major companies are experiencing a decline in stock prices today, Disney is currently beholden to the same volitility that the rest of the entertainment sphere is in that streaming and AI integration are current obsessions of analysts and any company who isn’t maneuvering the way these analysts think they should get punished.

Like yoy very correctly said earlier in this thread, the stock market has made itself pretty meaningless because of how reactive it is to things that in the long-term aren’t going to matter.

Streaming is already circling the drain a bit and I don’t foresee that changing in a positive direction anytime soon if ever. Disney’s streaming is doing better than some of their nearest competitors such as Paramount and Universal, but they along with WBD and Netflix are operating inside of a bubble that is going to implode (Netflix coming to the table to start working with AMC is a telltale sign of this). That’s why you see some of the big players exploring these bundles. They are just as aware that streaming is not going to remain king forever, especially as the non-Netflix streamers are becoming more and more aware of how streaming hurts their theatrical business.

Wall Street, however, is still pretty obsessed with streaming. While it has always been the case, it has been exceptionally clear I think in the last decade that Wall Street is very slow to react to change. They are not reacting to the noticeable wavering of streaming’s durability and are still holding entertainment companies by the throat to continue growing that segment even though it has a clear point of destruction.

in the same thing is happening with AI. Even though Iger brought it up, generally speaking, Disney is not going as deep on AI as analysts seem to want them to.

It has been a view Wall Street for years and years now, even when Disney was experiencing an exceptional run of success pre-pandemic, that Disney is an antiquated legacy company that has gone past the point of innovation and is going to pretty much hover where it currently sits forever. Them not going all in on AI confirms that in analyst’s minds. The thing is though AI is a bubble just like the dot com stuff was, and it is going to burst sooner rather than later, and it’s going to be really ugly when it does because Wall Street has gone so all in on it and tech companies in particular are chasing the dragon with them.

But once again, Wall Street seems to be in blissful ignorance of this and are giving unfavorable evaluations to companies that are not hopping on this bandwagon to an insane degree.

That is not to say that everything Disney is doing is perfect. It’s not. You may be shocked to hear me say this, but yes, I can identify problems with how the company is performing and how it’s being run. However, I do not think that the stock price is what people should be looking at to have that conversation, and you seem to somewhat agree with that. The stock price is influenced by people and things that have very little to do with how Disney as a company is actually operating and as such Disney would be wise to not knee-jerk react to it.

The comment I was referring to was saying they don’t know what Disney is going to do because Wall Street wants them out of the movie business. I’m saying they’re not gonna do anything, or at least they shouldn’t do anything, just because Wall Street has taken a stance that’s not really based on reality. I’m not saying that Disney should completely ignore the stock market, but I am saying that they should not take advice from the stock market because currently Wall Street is basing their perspective of everything on a whole bunch of stuff that is going to be meaningless five years from now.

 

[Touchdown]

I’ve never bought MLL at WDW, there is no way the extra hassle is worth it, not when you get at best 5 LL, 2 of which are pointless. You don’t have to convince me. I buy MLL at DL, I always stay at a Universal Express Hotel, my SF pass has all season Fast Lane. I’m the guest who should be buying it, but I just can’t justify it, not with tiers, not with no repeats, just no.

 

[DisneyNittany]

Did you land on Earth in 2022?

Besides a brief dip in 2022, coinciding with Fed rate hikes, we've been on an unprecedented run. That immediately recovered.

We have not had an economic downturn, since COVID raised wages while also exponentially raising house values, not to mention many other factors. No one's portfolio has been wiped out, like we saw in 2008 when we saw ~40% drop.

Like I said in my original post, the top 10% of households saw significant gains in the past 10 years, to where they're super rich (on paper) and have the confidence to spend freely. If the market takes a big hit (we're going all in on AI), and those gains are wiped out and they become much less wealthy (on paper), history says the won't be spending like it's all Monopoly money.

We haven't experienced anything close to the dot.com bubble or housing crisis.

Year	Return
2009	26.46%
2010	15.06%
2011	2.11%
2012	16.00%
2013	32.39%
2014	13.69%
2015	1.38%
2016	11.96%
2017	21.83%
2018	–4.38%
2019	31.49%
2020	18.40%
2021	28.71%
2022	–18.11%
2023	26.29%
2024	25.02%

 

[DrStarlander]

KODAK also had the opportunity to change with the times with digital technology and chose not to invest in it. It's an incredible bad comparison. Disney is also just not a theme park company either.

Agreed, Disney is not just a theme park company. And I think the comparison to Kodak is not only not an "incredible bad comparison" but in fact quite apropos precisely considering the technological disruption to, and consumer behavior changes around, linear television, and arguably theatrical films. Kodak is kind of a case study in fact. Yes, Disney has attempted to "change with the times" with Disney+/Hulu but just because they're trying doesn't mean it will be successful.

And they would change their mind if MagicalExpress came back? Or the rooms were 10% off? Probably not.

No, not sure your point. But last time we were in So. Cal. I took the family to Universal instead of Disney because I find Disney's ticketing and Lightning Lane B.S. off-putting. And the lame Madame Leota gift shop also made me think Disney wasn't even trying anymore. So, little things can affect attendance.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No, streaming being king and AI being a buzz word.

Other than the simple reality that many major companies are experiencing a decline in stock prices today, Disney is currently beholden to the same volitility that the rest of the entertainment sphere is in that streaming and AI integration are current obsessions of analysts and any company who isn’t maneuvering the way these analysts think they should get punished.

Like yoy very correctly said earlier in this thread, the stock market has made itself pretty meaningless because of how reactive it is to things that in the long-term aren’t going to matter.

Streaming is already circling the drain a bit and I don’t foresee that changing in a positive direction anytime soon if ever. Disney’s streaming is doing better than some of their nearest competitors such as Paramount and Universal, but they along with WBD and Netflix are operating inside of a bubble that is going to implode (Netflix coming to the table to start working with AMC is a telltale sign of this). That’s why you see some of the big players exploring these bundles. They are just as aware that streaming is not going to remain king forever, especially as the non-Netflix streamers are becoming more and more aware of how streaming hurts their theatrical business.

Wall Street, however, is still pretty obsessed with streaming. While it has always been the case, it has been exceptionally clear I think in the last decade that Wall Street is very slow to react to change. They are not reacting to the noticeable wavering of streaming’s durability and are still holding entertainment companies by the throat to continue growing that segment even though it has a clear point of destruction.

in the same thing is happening with AI. Even though Iger brought it up, generally speaking, Disney is not going as deep on AI as analysts seem to want them to.

It has been a view Wall Street for years and years now, even when Disney was experiencing an exceptional run of success pre-pandemic, that Disney is an antiquated legacy company that has gone past the point of innovation and is going to pretty much hover where it currently sits forever. Them not going all in on AI confirms that in analyst’s minds. The thing is though AI is a bubble just like the dot com stuff was, and it is going to burst sooner rather than later, and it’s going to be really ugly when it does because Wall Street has gone so all in on it and tech companies in particular are chasing the dragon with them.

But once again, Wall Street seems to be in blissful ignorance of this and are giving unfavorable evaluations to companies that are not hopping on this bandwagon to an insane degree.

That is not to say that everything Disney is doing is perfect. It’s not. You may be shocked to hear me say this, but yes, I can identify problems with how the company is performing and how it’s being run. However, I do not think that the stock price is what people should be looking at to have that conversation, and you seem to somewhat agree with that. The stock price is influenced by people and things that have very little to do with how Disney as a company is actually operating and as such Disney would be wise to not knee-jerk react to it.

The comment I was referring to was saying they don’t know what Disney is going to do because Wall Street wants them out of the movie business. I’m saying they’re not gonna do anything, or at least they shouldn’t do anything, just because Wall Street has taken a stance that’s not really based on reality. I’m not saying that Disney should completely ignore the stock market, but I am saying that they should not take advice from the stock market because currently Wall Street is basing their perspective of everything on a whole bunch of stuff that is going to be meaningless five years from now.

I wouldn’t say “fads” per se…

But definitely heightened issues.

What’s funny is Bob tossed out that AI nonsense today after he got nervous to bump the value of his options…ironically…

Disney is so bad at tech they can’t get their computers to connect to wifi half the time…like they’d be able to handle the T1000…

But to your point. Stream and AI emphasis may diminish…but something will have to replace it and the consumer tendency is to gravitate towards free or cheaper. It’s what happened post 1999 to today…that’s the urge and that won’t change

They are pushing the DTC far too fast. Backlash is closer than the Stanford people they hire believe.

It’s always gonna be “something”…but as has been discussed all day…in remarkable civil fashion…this is all mixed bag. Making money but vulnerable. I’m not getting the Impression there’s too much disagreement…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Addressing part of @PREMiERdrum post from earlier…

Expansion of the luggage services is a sign that they know they need the buses back. But Bob never “loses”…so he needs a recession of some type to spend the money…A “don’t blame me” to his investors

I think he wants that for a few things

 

[DisneyNittany]

Addressing part of @PREMiERdrum post from earlier…

Expansion of the luggage services is a sign that they know they need the buses back. But Bob never “loses”…so he needs a recession of some type to spend the money…A “don’t blame me” to his investors

I think he wants that for a few things

I have a hard time buying into anything @PREMiERdrum says anymore, after he led me to believe that the NCAA was going to go scorched earth on Ann Arbor and have Michigan competing in D3 for the next century....

 

[el_super]

plus their profit is highly dependent on LL.

lol wut?

You are worried that, people already paying extra for a better experience with lightning lane, will be less inclined to spend more money when the online booking and upcharge system is removed?

Personally I would love it if they raised the prices to the point of having short lines without all the phone app business.

What hurts more is the brand damage of being perceived as a rip off.

Which absolutely can happen when the lines are too long.

As far as cramming more people into overcrowded parks last time I checked Disney can limit the capacity to their parks.

Yes they can. And we all know how popular the reservation system is.

 

[el_super]

No, not sure your point. But last time we were in So. Cal. I took the family to Universal instead of Disney because I find Disney's ticketing and Lightning Lane B.S. off-putting.

Oh it's just weird because you seemed to imply that their view of Disney, which seems dependent on something out of Disney's control was influencing your decision, but now that wasn't the case.


Doesn't universal have a front of the line system? I thought they did. Hmmm

 

[Touchdown]

lol wut?

You are worried that, people already paying extra for a better experience with lightning lane, will be less inclined to spend more money when the online booking and upcharge system is removed?

Did you read the rest of my post? I said people will stop buying LL if lines are short (due to decreased attendance) which if they continue to lose customers will happen eventually. I said nothing about online booking/upcharge system.