Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BlindChow]

I’m a bit shocked how well it did in its first weekend, it’s always been a solid series but the sci-fi/horror genre has always had a smaller fanbase than other genres.

It’ll be interesting to see if all the hardcore fans rushed out to see it in its first weekend or if it can maintain its popularity.

If it can hit $250m and turn a profit I think Fox/Disney will be thrilled.

Perhaps Predator being PG-13 helped it after all...

 

[Phroobar]

Perhaps Predator being PG-13 helped it after all...

Which is surprising considering it is an R rated franchise. That was a complaint about how poorly AvP did because it was pg-13 and too tame. That is why AvP Requiem was R and they cranked back up the gore. It didn't do much better. Things change I guess.

 

[DKampy]

Which is surprising considering it is an R rated franchise. That was a complaint about how poorly AvP did because it was pg-13 and too tame. That is why AvP Requiem was R and they cranked back up the gore. It didn't do much better. Things change I guess.

Then just maybe it was not the rating…, ratings have very little to with the quality of the movie

 

[Prince-1]

Which is surprising considering it is an R rated franchise. That was a complaint about how poorly AvP did because it was pg-13 and too tame. That is why AvP Requiem was R and they cranked back up the gore. It didn't do much better. Things change I guess.

There was no reason to make this an R rated movie. There are no actual people in the movie so no blood or gore. They definitely took the franchise in a new direction with Badlands. It was very entertaining.

 

[TalkingHead]

Finally saw the Springsteen pic which was better than expected based on the trailer. Nice surprise!

 

[coffeefan]

 

[TP2000]

Happy Veteran's Day gang! No banks or mail today, but yesterday is when most folks had the actual day off to create a 3 Day weekend. Odd timing this year. But as it was a holiday weekend, here's the Monday box office to ponder...

 

[Disney Irish]

Just remember:

1. Streaming will make TRILLIONS…cause Bobby done said so.
2. All flops are gold…so it’s such a smart move for the Dis to keep cranking them out.

Bobby never said anything of the sort, nor has anyone ever claimed such as thing. But Bobby does do his homework, unlike you.

While streaming services alone won't likely hit $1T anytime soon, overall the global home video market which includes streaming is expected to hit over $1T by the end of this decade and have an over $2T valuation as reported by multiple research firms. Streaming itself should account for 2/3rd of that. And this doesn't even account for gaming, this is just TV, overall home entertainment is projected to hit over $3T by 2032.

Omdia: Global TV and video market to reach $1 trillion by 2030 as online video surges

New Omdia research finds the combined global online video and traditional TV market is set to reach $1 trillion by 2030. This growth is being driven entirely by online video as the traditional pay TV market remains flat.

omdia.tech.informa.com

The Future of Streaming Platforms: Key Trends and Outlook

We use the AlphaSense platform to uncover the key trends shaping the streaming platform landscape, as well as provide a future outlook for the industry.

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Now compare that to the global box office which is projected to only be $92B by the end of the decade.

So yeah you tell me oh great oracle of all things, where would you put your money?

 

[MisterPenguin]

There are no actual people in the movie

That's speciesism!!

 

[monothingie]

Happy Veteran's Day gang! No banks or mail today, but yesterday is when most folks had the actual day off to create a 3 Day weekend. Odd timing this year. But as it was a holiday weekend, here's the Monday box office to ponder...

View attachment 892653

It just needed to cost $50M less and it would be massive success. Rewarding good writing and effective budgeting.

But alas that $100M+ price tag plus whatever marketing made it a fail.

Hollywood is sabotaging themselves.

 

[BrianLo]

Corporate Disney usually doesn’t brag when they are disappointed. It seems like a successful play to me. A direct to streaming fare that is well reviewed and now seems more highly regarded because it was an upfront theatrical release. Plus it should mostly pay for itself theatrically.

I’m not sure why it’s already being written so desperately to the contrary. Other than conversation seems to occur outside the realm of nuance here.

Tron was a huge disaster and it was crickets.

 

[Phroobar]

Then just maybe it was not the rating…, ratings have very little to with the quality of the movie

Could be. I hear AvPR was pretty crappy.

 

[Dranth]

Could be. I hear AvPR was pretty crappy.

It was.

Also the darkest, hardest to see movie I have ever had the displeasure of seeing in a theater. Not that it is saying much, but I did like it more than the original AvP.

 

[TP2000]

Hiya gang, box office previews are out from Thursday!

It looks close, but Predator: Badlands dropped to third place heading into its second weekend. And in its first week, it's legs are not strong. A reminder that with its $100 Million budget, it needs $250 Million globally to simply break even.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Serpico Jones]

 

[Phroobar]

I'm looking forward to Now you see me 3.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Predator: Badlands expected to drop 63% this weekend.

 

[TP2000]

First pass at the box office is in for this weekend!

It was a slow weekend numbers-wise, but Predator: Badlands slipped down to #3 and is showing weak legs going forward. Another one is going to lose a decent chunk of money at the box office for Burbank this year.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 27, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of February 27, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Did I hear right that the new predator movie is a buddy adventure movie with cute Disney sidekicks?

 

[TP2000]

With critic and audience scores much much higher here, 85%/95% respectively, and a A- Cinemascore, that indicates a much lower drop week to week because audiences seem to like it, indicating it has the potential to actually get passed $200M.

We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but there is reason to be optimistic.

Optimism faded fast for Predator: Badlands, where it dropped 68% in its second weekend. It has already opened everywhere globally, and is doing just as wobbly overseas as it has done domestically.

It's on a track to make something just north of $200 Million globally, which would mean a loss of about $20 Million for Burbank.

I could be wrong and this movie could drop like a stone…. But looking at this weekend I don’t believe it will….

I believe it is possible it is in good position with the 3 day weekend and if it can hang in there this month the film will play through Thanksgiving weekend

The global audience didn't go back for seconds on Predator: Badlands after Veteran's Day weekend, so there's very little chance now they'll be going back for seconds on it for Thanksgiving weekend.

An A- CinemaScore is usually a 3.4 multiplier of opening week.

So, a total of about $272 total Box Office.

Usually.

After its second weekend, it seems headed to around $225 Million globally as its best case scenario (maybe $200 Million worst case?). Getting to $200-225 Million globally would result would incur a loss of about $20 Million for Burbank on this modestly budgeted movie that "only" cost them $100 Million to make.

It doesn't matter if it is a 50% drop or had the best cinemascope ever, It still won't break even at the box office. It does not have the legs and is hindered by the slate of new movies coming out in 2 weeks.

After 10 days in global theaters, it now has weak legs.

even if it drops 50% next weekend that is still alright for this type…. And it will still have the potential to cross 200

Getting it to cross $200 Million would mean a loss of $20 Million or so. That's not a good result, vaporizing $20 Million.

Predator: Badlands (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Predator: Badlands (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com