Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

It doesn't matter if it is a 50% drop or had the best cinemascope ever, It still won't break even at the box office. It does not have the legs and is hindered by the slate of new movies coming out in 2 weeks.

All that I hear is cope for some reason.

I don't know how it will do, but I will say that I think it'll do better than what you are giving it credit for, and I suspect had it not been released by Disney you'd be singing a different tune.

 

[monothingie]

I don't know how it will do, but I will say that I think it'll do better than what you are giving it credit for, and I suspect had it not been released by Disney you'd be singing a different tune.

Maybe ease up on the pixie dust.

It has nothing to do with Disney, even though they're the worst offender, Hollywood is a dying because they can't get out of their own way making stupidly over priced product.

This movie needed to cost $50 million.

But the system is so broken that the costs of these major franchise and tentpole productions make it impossible to get back the investment. Add in "The message" and ideological rot that alienate half the audience and you have a recipe for complete failure.

So no if WB or Sony or Netflix or whoever made this, it would get the exact same criticism.

 

[TP2000]

,,,even if it drops 50% next weekend that is still alright for this type…. And it will still have the potential to cross 200

Just so we're all aware of what that would mean to get to $200 Million.

If Predator:Badlands ends with a $200 Million global box office total by Christmas, that means it will have lost $25 Million.

To simply break even with its $100 Million production budget, it needs to reach at least $250 Million at the global box office.

 

[Disney Irish]

Maybe ease up on the pixie dust.

It has nothing to do with Disney, even though they're the worst offender, Hollywood is a dying because they can't get out of their own way making stupidly over priced product.

This movie needed to cost $50 million.

But the system is so broken that the costs of these major franchise and tentpole productions make it impossible to get back the investment. Add in "The message" and ideological rot that alienate half the audience and you have a recipe for complete failure.

So no if WB or Sony or Netflix or whoever made this, it would get the exact same criticism.

I've a LONG history here saying there is a Hollywood issue happening not just a Disney one, while others were just trying to label this as just a Disney issue. You can find posts after post where I've been saying that the entire box office is on a downward trend and it'll continue for the foreseeable future, while others were saying things were improving because of a handful of movies and its only Disney having an issue. You can find post after post where I say that costs needs to come down across the board, while again others claim its just a Disney issue.

So no I'm not on any pixie dust here.

Also Hollywood isn't dying, its in a transformative stage where its still figuring out where it needs to position itself in the new era of streaming. The traditional box office may not last, but Hollywood will.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

An A- CinemaScore is usually a 3.4 multiplier of opening week.

So, a total of about $272 total Box Office.

Usually.

I’m a bit shocked how well it did in its first weekend, it’s always been a solid series but the sci-fi/horror genre has always had a smaller fanbase than other genres.

It’ll be interesting to see if all the hardcore fans rushed out to see it in its first weekend or if it can maintain its popularity.

If it can hit $250m and turn a profit I think Fox/Disney will be thrilled.

 

[monothingie]

I've a LONG history here saying there is a Hollywood issue happening not just a Disney one, while others were just trying to label this as just a Disney issue. You can find posts after post where I've been saying that the entire box office is on a downward trend and it'll continue for the foreseeable future, while others were saying things were improving because of a handful of movies and its only Disney having an issue. You can find post after post where I say that costs needs to come down across the board, while again others claim its just a Disney issue.

So no I'm not on any pixie dust here.

Also Hollywood isn't dying, its in a transformative stage where its still figuring out where it needs to position itself in the new era of streaming. The traditional box office may not last, but Hollywood will.

It’s dying. Just looking at eyeballs on screens the vast majority of views for media of impact now is mostly user generated content. Hollywood cannot compete with that. What you see now is the reorganization and consolidation of a dying industry. It’s just a matter of time before big tech like Apple and Google consume and integrate it all into their ecosystems. Disney included.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s dying. Just looking at eyeballs on screens the vast majority of views for media of impact now is mostly user generated content. Hollywood cannot compete with that. What you see now is the reorganization and consolidation of a dying industry. It’s just a matter of time before big tech like Apple and Google consume and integrate it all into their ecosystems. Disney included.

And just look at that user generated content, it just thrown aside just as quickly as its viewed. Its expendable, it is not something that many watch days, weeks, months, or years after it was created unlike something created by Hollywood. A content creator comes, and is just as quickly no longer available. There is no permanence to it. So I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

As for consolidation, again I've been saying for a long time its going to happen. So you're not saying anything I don't already know. But there are currently roadblocks in-place that won't allow the content to be all in only one or two places. So unless we have an overhaul of laws in at least this country that won't happen, at least not in our lifetimes.

So I'll just say that Hollywood as we've known it for the last 100 years is changing and it won't be the same. But it also won't go extinct like you're insinuating.

 

[TP2000]

It’s dying. Just looking at eyeballs on screens the vast majority of views for media of impact now is mostly user generated content. Hollywood cannot compete with that. What you see now is the reorganization and consolidation of a dying industry.

Bingo! I'm one of those sets of (glacier blue) eyeballs. I spend a great deal of time now on YouTube watching incredibly well produced and very entertaining content created by guys sitting in their home office with a newer iPhone and a laptop. I've gone down a World War II docu-history rabbit hole lately, after seeing some of the battle sites in Europe earlier this year. The quantity and quality of that YouTube content created by history buffs, or any other kind of buff, is insanely impressive. Don't even start on my cooking channels.

And I was a typical viewer of the 20th century. I grew up and spent much of my adulthood knowing exactly which show was on which network and what night of the week. From The Beverly Hillbillies to Happy Days to The Cosby Show to Seinfeld to The Office, I ate it all up decade after decade. Not anymore. It's almost all entirely YouTube for me lately.

And new Hollywood movies are even a rarer visit for my person or pocketbook now.

It’s just a matter of time before big tech like Apple and Google consume and integrate it all into their ecosystems. Disney included.

I'm not even quite sure what that all means, but I get the gist of it. And I agree.

This is not just Disney continuing to waste huge amounts of money on movies that more often fail than succeed at the box office, it's a once every 100 years massive change to a once-infallible industry. SoCal's economy is really hurting right now because of this continuing culture change; massive layoffs, reduced spending, cancelled projects, closed divisions, rising unemployment, restaurants closed, buildings abandoned, etc., etc.

California already has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 5.5% statewide, but the LA area is especially hit hard.

L.A. entertainment industry struggles amid mass job losses

L.A.'s entertainment industry faces severe crisis as thousands of jobs vanish and creatives struggle to survive

tickernews.co

List Of Hollywood & Media Layoffs From Paramount To Warner Bros Discovery To CNN & More

Media layoffs have unfortunately become a trend as Hollywood continues to readjust after two strikes and Covid plus the advent of streaming and A.I.

deadline.com

And a big part of that financial damage being caused to Hollywood is due to YouTube and its single content creators sitting in their house in Cincinnati creating great yet incredibly niche content for free.

If you are going to preach and look down your noses at half the country, you better be willing for them to find something else to spend their money on. Oops! Too late.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It’s dying. Just looking at eyeballs on screens the vast majority of views for media of impact now is mostly user generated content. Hollywood cannot compete with that. What you see now is the reorganization and consolidation of a dying industry. It’s just a matter of time before big tech like Apple and Google consume and integrate it all into their ecosystems. Disney included.

I agree traditional Hollywood is dying but I think Disney has set itself up well with D+ to survive into the new environment. It’ll be interesting to see who survives… I think Comcast, Amazon, Disney, and Netflix are the most likely to survive in the new environment. Ultimately I think user created content like YouTube and TikTok are the future though, most people I know watch way more user created content now than Hollywood created content.

For example, I’m currently watching the Internet Invitational, a golf creator tournament on YouTube that’s been getting more views per episode than your average PGA tournament, Cletus McFarland gets more views than your average NASCAR race… the world is changing.

 

[coffeefan]

A good amount of the more popular user-generated content is still based on popular culture/ Hollywood IPs. The industry is changing many of us have been saying so for over a decade. The world is also moving towards a miltipolar order, which also influences popular culture and trends. Anyway, this topic is a larger discussion than the box office discussion.

 

[monothingie]

I agree traditional Hollywood is dying but I think Disney has set itself up well with D+ to survive into the new environment. It’ll be interesting to see who survives… I think Comcast, Amazon, Disney, and Netflix are the most likely to survive in the new environment. Ultimately I think user created content like YouTube and TikTok are the future though, most people I know watch way more user created content now than Hollywood created content.

For example, I’m currently watching the Internet Invitational, a golf creator tournament on YouTube that’s been getting more views per episode than your average PGA tournament, Cletus McFarland gets more views than your average NASCAR race… the world is changing.

But is D+ positioned well? (or any other DTC provider for that matter)

A good percentage of their "subscribers" are subsidized through telco and cable companies at bulk wholesale rates. The more profitable retail subscribers are not as plentiful.

Now let's talk cost. $200M+ for a turds like "The Acolyte" or "Agetha" or "Willow"? How is that in anyway good? The guy from Iowa on Youtube making videos about working on junkyard cars gets more views per video than all those pieces of hot garbage combined. He's certainly not spending millions or thousands or even hundreds of dollars on that.

But it's not just Disney. WBD, Paramount, NBCU, even Amazon, Netflix and Hulu all have their failures and the ratio of flops to fabulous is not good.

DTC requires content. That means that the constant churn of product from terribly untalented people, which to no ones surprise is terrible. Of course add in "The Message" and activist content that halves your audience and you win the stupid prize for playing the stupid game.

But Sports? Yeah it's great right? (Well except that whole sports book integration...) Whoda thunk Disney could be successfully making money as a bookie.

In conclusion Hollywood is screwed and they don't even know it.

 

[monothingie]

Bingo! I'm one of those sets of (glacier blue) eyeballs.

I have blue eyes too!

That explains it all.

 

[monothingie]

A good amount of the more popular user-generated content is still based on popular culture/ Hollywood IPs. The industry is changing many of us have been saying so for over a decade. The world is also moving towards a miltipolar order, which also influences popular culture and trends. Anyway, this topic is a larger discussion than the box office discussion.

There will always be that component, but just look at what's trending on Youtube or X. It certainly doesn't make up all or most of the top trending content anymore. It may not even make it to half.

That's a BIG L for Hollywood and legacy media companies.

 

[Disney Irish]

But is D+ positioned well? (or any other DTC provider for that matter)

A good percentage of their "subscribers" are subsidized through telco and cable companies at bulk wholesale rates. The more profitable retail subscribers are not as plentiful.

Now let's talk cost. $200M+ for a turds like "The Acolyte" or "Agetha" or "Willow"? How is that in anyway good? The guy from Iowa on Youtube making videos about working on junkyard cars gets more views per video than all those pieces of hot garbage combined. He's certainly not spending millions or thousands or even hundreds of dollars on that.

But it's not just Disney. WBD, Paramount, NBCU, even Amazon, Netflix and Hulu all have their failures and the ratio of flops to fabulous is not good.

DTC requires content. That means that the constant churn of product from terribly untalented people, which to no ones surprise is terrible. Of course add in "The Message" and activist content that halves your audience and you win the stupid prize for playing the stupid game.

But Sports? Yeah it's great right? (Well except that whole sports book integration...) Whoda thunk Disney could be successfully making money as a bookie.

In conclusion Hollywood is screwed and they don't even know it.

The moment we as a society all just turn to only watching content like from that guy from Iowa talking about his latest junkyard find is the day we all turn into people from Idiocracy.

I weep for society if that ever happens.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The moment we as a society all just turn to only watching content like from that guy from Iowa talking about his latest junkyard find is the day we all turn into people from Idiocracy.

I weep for society if that ever happens.

Hollywood has been pushing “reality TV” for nearly 3 decades now, the problem is 99% have figured out it’s 99% fake, why should it be surprising people would rather watch real “reality tv” than fake reality tv?

At least watching a mechanic from Iowa is educational, everyone should support people watching that over something stupid like the Kardashians 100 times out of 100.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hollywood has been pushing “reality TV” for nearly 3 decades now, the problem is 99% have figured out it’s 99% fake, why should it be surprising people would rather watch real “reality tv” than fake reality tv?

At least watching a mechanic from Iowa is educational, everyone should support people watching that over something stupid like the Kardashians 100 times out of 100.

The difference is when that become the ONLY content it leads to a dumbing down of society, hence my reference to the movie Idiocracy.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The difference is when that become the ONLY content it leads to a dumbing down of society, hence my reference to the movie Idiocracy.

I watch tons of content on YouTube that’s vastly more educational than anything offered on cable or streaming, most the stuff I watch on YouTube is travel related, history related, technology related, how to related… my biggest beef with D+ has been that they eliminated all the shows I loved like the imagineering story, the behind the scenes stuff, the Disney archive stuff… probably explains why YouTube is dominating traditional cable and streaming also, YouTube can literally offer everything because they aren’t paying to make it, D+ has to pick and choose what to spend their money on and unfortunately most people would rather watch mindless drivel like the Kardashians or the Simpsons than an Imagineering show that explains how something is designed and built.

 

[Disney Irish]

I watch tons of content on YouTube that’s vastly more educational than anything offered on cable or streaming, most the stuff I watch on YouTube is travel related, history related, technology related, how to related… my biggest beef with D+ has been that they eliminated all the shows I loved like the imagineering story, the behind the scenes stuff, the Disney archive stuff… probably explains why YouTube is dominating traditional cable and streaming also, YouTube can literally offer everything because they aren’t paying to make it, D+ has to pick and choose what to spend their money on and unfortunately most people would rather watch mindless drivel like the Kardashians or the Simpsons than an Imagineering show that explains how something is designed and built.

Believe it or not Youtube is actually paying for that content indirectly, by paying the content creators based on the ads being shown. Or did you think that all those content creators do it for free? And so the issue with Youtube is just like every other streaming platform they also have an algorithm that pushes content based on what people watch, like the mindless drivel you dislike. And so if more people switch to Youtube only and end up only watching that mindless drivel, well guess what all that content you like now disappears because the content creators cannot making money from it. Its a vicious cycle that is always going to be driven by the almighty dollar.

BTW, I haven't watched it myself yet, but have you watched the reboot of Imagineer That! on Disney's Youtube channel?

 

[monothingie]

The moment we as a society all just turn to only watching content like from that guy from Iowa talking about his latest junkyard find is the day we all turn into people from Idiocracy.

I weep for society if that ever happens.

You are living in a remarkable bubble of denial and pixie dust.

 

[Disney Irish]

You are living in a remarkable bubble of denial and pixie dust.

Lol, not at all. I just know that if we continue down the path you're suggesting that basically its the end of society as we know it, ie IQs will be below 80. And while maybe you think we're already there, I just know that we still have at least a significant portion of the population that isn't drawn to only the lowest common denominator type content.