Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Things were doing pretty well through mid-July, and then just cratered. A few horror and anime titles have genuinely thrived, but there haven't been any 4-quadrant / fun-for-the-whole-family blockbusters from August to now. At least last year had stuff like Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and The Wild Robot going for it.

October had it particularly bad because Michael - which had been expected to be the next Bohemian Rhapsody -- was pushed back to next April (the first teaser dropped today), and Mortal Kombat II made a similar move. Until Wicked: For Good in two weeks, there's really nothing grabbing the masses; if Predator: Badlands tanks, that probably isn't a good sign for the R-rated The Running Man next weekend.

You can find posts from me back even in mid-July where I was saying that things aren't looking as rosy as people here were prognosticating. Things haven't really been looking rosy all year, the slight uptick that was seen was just that "slight", overall 2025 looks to come in under 2024 if things continue. As the only thing that has held up 2025 so far has been the holdovers from 2024 like Moana 2 and Wicked, if you subtract those well 2025 is running about even (actually about 0.2% less) than 2024. So the box office is actually behind where it needs to be if the goal was to do better than last year.

Basically Wicked 2, Zootopia 2, and Avatar 3 have to over perform in order for 2025 to have a shot at beating 2024.

 

[DKampy]

And the 5 day for the first Zootopia was $84M, and it went onto do $1.018B. So it potentially having an opening lower than Moana 2 doesn't say much in terms of how it'll end up doing.

Especially during the holiday quarter….the leggiest time of year for family films….being that it is being released before Thanksgiving Zootopia should play through January

 

[Phroobar]

While bad, that would be the highest for pretty much all Predator films, with the exception of the first AvP that did $38M

I liked the first AvP movie. It was pg-13 and it had that cool Myan pyramid mazes and traps.

 

[TalkingHead]

And the 5 day for the first Zootopia was $84M, and it went onto do $1.018B. So it potentially having an opening lower than Moana 2 doesn't say much in terms of how it'll end up doing.

It’ll be interesting to see how it compares to Moana 2 last year, domestically. First Zootopia was pre-pandemic so it’s hardly worth comparing those numbers.

 

[Nevermore525]

‘Zootopia 2’ Tracking to Feast on Huge $125M-Plus Opening at Thanksgiving Box Office

The Walt Disney Animation buddy cop adventure reunites voice stars Ginnifer Goodwin and Jason Bateman, with franchise newcomers including Ke Huy Quan.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Headline: ‘Zootopia 2’ Tracking to Feast on Huge $125M-Plus Opening at Thanksgiving Box Office

Moana 2 did $225M for its five day opening.

That tracking also closely matches where projections had Moana 2 early November prior to release which were $125-$135M over the 5 day weekend.

‘Moana 2’ Tracking for Record-Shattering $125M-$135M Thanksgiving Opening

The animated feature is eyeing the biggest debut ever for the holiday, besting fellow Walt Disney Animation's 'Frozen.' It could also beat 'Frozen II' to become the top Thanksgiving earner of all time.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[BrianLo]

I’m still feeling optimistic about Zootopia. Domestically it seems poised to outrun the first. It would have to be really bad to not do so with that kind of opening and a really choice marker. So really International remains the giant question mark.

 

[CoastalElite64]

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, we're off with another movie from Burbank, and the title has a colon (again)!

Predator: Badlands had previews yesterday that show up in today's box office results, and it pulled in $4.8 Million. Is that good? I can't really tell yet with its relatively small $100 Million production budget, but it seems rather modest for previews.

Off we go into the Badlands this weekend! Or not.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Sunday December 14, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Sunday December 14, 2025

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Baloo124]

I’m still feeling optimistic about Zootopia.

Same. Though I still question if releasing it less than a month before Avatar 3 is wise or not in letting it fully ride the tide, but the company knows what it's doing I suppose.

 

[coffeefan]

Good WOM might turn things around.

 

[Prince-1]

I wouldn't see it if it where R rated. The rule hasn't changed.

So you don't see any R rated movies yourself or you don't see any with your kids??

 

[Nevermore525]

Looks like Badlands has a chance at topping AvP for highest opening weekend of a Predator film domestically.

 

[Nevermore525]

$40M Domestic, $40M international estimates for Badlands. Go from $60M early projections to $80M not too bad

Box Office Badass: ‘Predator Badlands’ Kicks Off November With Record $40M U.S. Opening, $80M Globally

The 20th Century and Disney franchise reboot came in well ahead of an expectations to end a major slump in moviegoing after winning over critics and audiences alike.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[DKampy]

$40M Domestic, $40M international estimates for Badlands. Go from $60M early projections to $80M not too bad

Box Office Badass: ‘Predator Badlands’ Kicks Off November With Record $40M U.S. Opening, $80M Globally

The 20th Century and Disney franchise reboot came in well ahead of an expectations to end a major slump in moviegoing after winning over critics and audiences alike.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

At only 100 million budget…looking good that it will make a profit theatrically

 

[Serpico Jones]

At only 100 million budget…looking good that it will make a profit theatrically

Should be able to make their marketing budget back with the profits from theatrical.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Looks like it would make a great ABC Christmas special… I struggle to see this making much money as a theatrical release though.

I now wonder if most releases aren’t done simply to make a couple bucks before hitting streaming and the primary audience.

I thought theaters would ultimately go from 12-16 screen multiplexes to 4-8 screen multiplexes but now I’m starting to wonder if we won’t see a repeat of my youth and see stand alone theaters become the norm, play 1 movie for a couple weeks and then move on to the next. No reason to have a half dozen movies playing simultaneously all day when no one is coming to see them. Demand by scarcity may be the solution.

 

[Miss Rori]

Same. Though I still question if releasing it less than a month before Avatar 3 is wise or not in letting it fully ride the tide, but the company knows what it's doing I suppose.

This seems like a silly worry. Disney regularly releases a big-ticket family movie over Thanksgiving and a (usually) more "mature" production over Christmas -- Moana didn't suffer for Rogue One coming out just a month later, nor did Frozen II which was separated from The Rise of Skywalker by a month. Heck, back when Disney was producing substantially more films than it is now Thor: Ragnarok came out at the top of November, Coco over Thanksgiving, and The Last Jedi over Christmas and they were all gigantic hits!

If anything it's worse for Disney if they don't pack the holidays. Remember 2023, when The Marvels, despite getting an extra week of premium playdates due to Dune Part Two moving to the following spring, flatlined and was followed by Wish completely cratering over Thanksgiving? They didn't have a Christmas title that year and they had to settle for trying to get people to check out Wish as it was moved to the smallest auditoriums in many theaters because they had nothing else to offer exhibitors, even more so because all the Spring 2024 titles were moved to 2025 (hence the unsuccessful run of Pixar titles that debuted on streaming having very brief runs the following winter to make up for that).

 

[Disney Irish]

This seems like a silly worry. Disney regularly releases a big-ticket family movie over Thanksgiving and a (usually) more "mature" production over Christmas -- Moana didn't suffer for Rogue One coming out just a month later, nor did Frozen II which was separated from The Rise of Skywalker by a month. Heck, back when Disney was producing substantially more films than it is now Thor: Ragnarok came out at the top of November, Coco over Thanksgiving, and The Last Jedi over Christmas and they were all gigantic hits!

If anything it's worse for Disney if they don't pack the holidays. Remember 2023, when The Marvels, despite getting an extra week of premium playdates due to Dune Part Two moving to the following spring, flatlined and was followed by Wish completely cratering over Thanksgiving? They didn't have a Christmas title that year and they had to settle for trying to get people to check out Wish as it was moved to the smallest auditoriums in many theaters because they had nothing else to offer exhibitors, even more so because all the Spring 2024 titles were moved to 2025 (hence the unsuccessful run of Pixar titles that debuted on streaming having very brief runs the following winter to make up for that).

We’re in a completely different market than we were prior to 2020. You can’t rely on “packing” the holidays anymore. What the last 5 years have shown us is that audiences are being selective in their ticket purchases. So you can’t assume that just because you have back-to-back-to-back movies being released that the audience will show up for all of it. They may only select one, or even none and just wait for streaming. Your favorite punching bag of Wish is proof of that.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Haven’t been in this thread lately, but this popped into my feed.



So do we think this will be a 6-7 billion year once the receipts are counted for Zootopia and Avatar?

 

[Phroobar]

Haven’t been in this thread lately, but this popped into my feed.



So do we think this will be a 6-7 billion year once the receipts are counted for Zootopia and Avatar?

Does that include losses?